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In swing state Pennsylvania, middle class struggles to get by

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In swing state Pennsylvania, middle class struggles to get by


The giant steelworks that greets visitors to Allentown, Pennsylvania once symbolized the city’s success as an industrial hub. Today, its middle-class residents struggle to overcome the long-term impacts of post-pandemic inflation.

Purchasing power is one of the main themes of the US presidential election, and a thorn in the side of Democrats — especially in this Rust Belt battleground state, which could be one of a handful to decide who wins the White House in November.

“Inflation has come down tremendously,” said Bill Leiner, a 70-year-old nurse and volunteer for the Democratic Party, which seems to be coalescing behind Vice President Kamala Harris after Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the race.

“However, there are many people… who don’t believe that, because there’s a right-wing echo chamber pumping out disinformation,” Leiner told AFP, explaining he even has to help his own family members separate truth from fiction.

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When a loved one complained about the high price of eggs, Leiner explained it was the result of a bird flu epidemic, not government policy, and advised the person to buy the store’s brand, instead of a name brand product, to save money.

“I’ve amended my habits. I keep an eye on prices. I look at what I do, at my budget,” he said.

Matthew Kayes, who was exiting a Whole Foods supermarket with his family, said he too had changed up his shopping habits, buying different products from different suppliers.

Kayes even goes straight to local farms in the region dotted with green hills, where “the prices are generally cheaper and, we find, the produce is better.”

Accountant Tamy Ferry said she watches her budget, but still buys what she likes, even if prices are higher.

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“Occasionally, I stay away from certain things, or I wait until they go on sale, but I do shop at various stores,” Ferry said.

– More visitors at food pantries –

On Friday, all eyes will be on new inflation figures from the US government. May data showed that goods prices had cooled slightly — good news for both consumers and Democrats keen to overcome voter hesitation about their economic record.

In Allentown, residents are considered middle class if their households earn between $37,300 and $112,000 a year. Even then, some have had to turn to food pantries.

“For the last two years, we saw almost a doubling of the people showing up in our food pantry every single day,” said J. Marc Rittle, the executive director of New Bethany, a nonprofit that helps those facing economic and social hardship.

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According to Rittle, more and more of the newcomers visiting New Bethany are middle class.

“Housing costs have skyrocketed, so people have to choose between paying their rent or buying food,” he said, explaining those coming to the pantry are looking for a “complement” to the food they can afford on their own.

“We don’t refuse anyone,” Rittle said — even those whose salaries exceed the level suggested by the federal Feeding America program.

He said he noticed that more Allentown residents started having trouble when the financial aid programs launched during the coronavirus pandemic expired.

At that same moment, the war in Ukraine sent oil prices soaring, which translated into an overall jump in the cost of daily necessities.

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The annual inflation rate has certainly fallen, from a high of 9.5 percent in June 2022 to an average of 2.6 percent in recent months.

“A slowdown in inflation is still an increasing rate of the cost of living, so that doesn’t help at all. It’s just not going up as much as before,” Rittle said.

“We would have to return to a lower cost of living.”

– ‘Modest and incremental’ –

Al Jacobsen, executive director of Allentown’s 1,000-seat Miller Symphony Hall, also counts on the assistance of others to keep his budget out of the red.

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He struggles to balance higher operating costs and salaries with the impossibility of raising ticket prices without seeing a hit on attendance, among patrons who face tough choices about how to spend the little disposable income they have.

He also says he has created new ticket categories and launched subscription incentives, but has been unable to book some artists whose fees have soared.

“We are not an essential service like food or shelter, so we’re limited in how much we can increase without affecting the demand,” Jacobsen said.

“Our increases have been modest and incremental.”

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Pennsylvania

Allies push their in-state stars for VP — especially in Pennsylvania

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Allies push their in-state stars for VP — especially in Pennsylvania


PITTSBURGH — In the days after President Joe Biden ended his 2024 campaign and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris to succeed him, Democrats across the country rushed to rally behind her, too. In Pennsylvania, the Philadelphia Democratic Party went a step further — endorsing not just Harris, but a ticket with Harris backed up by Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro.

As Harris kicks off an unusually rapid search for a vice presidential nominee, Shapiro’s in-state allies are standing out with an especially public and vocal push to elevate their governor. Shapiro, who was elected in 2022 and twice elected state attorney general before that, has mostly deflected when asked about running mate speculation in recent days. So have North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper, Sen. Mark Kelly of Arizona and others.

But their friends are making enough noise on their own.

Former Rep. Bob Brady, the chair of the Philadelphia Democratic Party, told NBC News that with Shapiro on the ticket, Harris will win Pennsylvania.

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“I don’t guarantee anything, but I will guarantee that,” said Brady, whose committee announced endorsing Shapiro for VP “without any opposition.” He continued, “No question about it. We’re so enthused, so riled up.” 

“We are pushing for our favorite son,” Brady said gushing about Shapiro’s electability, calling the endorsement of Shapiro a “no-brainer” and saying, “He checks every box.” 

Pennsylvania state House Speaker Joanna McClinton also endorsed a Harris-Shapiro ticket, telling NBC News that “when I think about winning Pennsylvania, I think about our governor first, because Gov. Shapiro has won across Pennsylvania three times.” 

Former Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell said Shapiro is “the type of man that every mother in Pennsylvania would hope her son grows up to be.” 

Rendell says the enthusiasm level in Pennsylvania is already “sky high” for Harris, but believes with Shapiro on the ticket, it would “go off the charts.”

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This push is a stark contrast to what Shapiro has been saying while fielding a glut of media questions about Harris’ campaign. Shapiro released a statement Sunday quickly endorsing Harris and noting their relationship, adding that he spoke to Biden and Harris after their announcements and has known Harris “for nearly two decades.” 

Since then, Shapiro has repeatedly told reporters that Harris has a “deeply personal decision to make,” adding that “it should be made free from any political pressure.”

Shapiro has kept up his local public schedule amid a new crush of national attention, speaking Wednesday in New Castle, Pennsylvania, about a new law reforming pharmacy benefit manager regulations. Like anything that passes through Pennsylvania’s divided state legislature, it required bipartisan cooperation. “We are proving that we can bring Republicans and Democrats together to get meaningful things done,” Shapiro said.

When asked about the support from the likes of Brady and McClinton, Shapiro told NBC News, “While I am, of course, grateful for the kindness that Speaker McClinton and Congressman Brady shared, this is a process that the vice president needs to go through and make her decision based upon factors that she lays forward.” 

Brady does not view his and others’ push for Shapiro as putting political pressure on Harris, emphasizing it is “110%” her decision. 

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“If it’s not Josh Shapiro, whoever it may be, we will rally around them,” Brady said. 

While pro-Shapiro voices have been particularly outspoken backing him in his state, there are similar efforts heating up elsewhere. In North Carolina, where Cooper is under consideration, state Democratic Party Chair Anderson Clayton and Rep. Deborah Ross both posted pictures with their governor on X, writing, “I know who I would pick for VP 👀”

In Arizona, members of the state Democratic Party executive board endorsed Kelly for Harris’ running mate on Thursday, touting his ability to “help working families, boost our economy, and ensure our communities are safe and secure.”

“We are confident that with Senator Kelly on the ballot, Vice President Harris can build a winning coalition that defeats Donald Trump and J.D. Vance in November,” the state party announced, adding that “the road to the White House runs through Arizona in this election.”

It’s unclear whether such public displays have any effect on vice presidential decisions past or present. But they can be useful displays of loyalty. Just hours before the Arizona party put out its statement supporting Kelly, Arizona Democratic Party Chair Yolanda Bejarano initially stopped short of endorsing Kelly at a news conference in Phoenix, telling NBC News, “This is something that we’re going to trust the vice president’s judgment.”

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And of course, not everyone is lined up behind their home-state VP hopeful.

Erin McClelland, the Democratic candidate for Pennsylvania state treasurer who beat the state party’s endorsed candidate in a primary earlier this year, posted on X against Shapiro, making reference to a sexual harassment case against a former Shapiro aide.

“I want a VP pick that’s secure enough to be second under a woman, is content to be VP & won’t undermine the President to maneuver his own election & doesn’t sweep sexual harassment under the rug.  I want someone that can speak to rural voters. That is @RoyCooperNC,” McClelland posted.

Brady called McClelland “nuts” in response and said he thinks she is making a “major mistake.” “I think she just sunk herself and I’m not too happy with her at all,” he added.

Pennsylvania state Sen. Sharif Street, the state Democratic Party chair, stopped short of fully endorsing Shapiro in an interview, citing deference to Harris. “As a state party, I don’t presume to tell the vice president, our nominee for president, who she should pick. I’m not doing that,” he said.

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But Street added: “What I am telling you is I think Josh would do a great job.” 

Like others, Street noted that Shapiro has been the top vote-getter in Pennsylvania in past elections, including years when he shared the ticket with presidential hopefuls Biden and Hillary Clinton. And Street noted “he’s been effective” while working with a GOP state Senate and a Democratic state House in Harrisburg.

“My job is to make sure we win the state,” Street said. “I think Kamala Harris is gonna win Pennsylvania no matter which vice presidential pick she picks. But gee, I mean, if I could go around and have our governor be the pick, I mean, I’d be being disingenuous to say that wouldn’t make it easier.”



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July 2024 Swing State Polls: Harris Trails Trump in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Tied in Wisconsin – Emerson Polling

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July 2024 Swing State Polls: Harris Trails Trump in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Tied in Wisconsin – Emerson Polling


Majority of Democrats in Swing States Say Harris Should be Nominated at DNC 

New Emerson College Polling/The Hill polling in five swing states finds Vice President Kamala Harris trailing former President Donald Trump in four states, and tied in Wisconsin. In Arizona, 49% support Trump and 44% support Harris. In Georgia, 48% support Trump and 46% Harris. In Michigan, 46% support Trump and 45% Harris. In Pennsylvania, 48% support Trump and 46% Harris. In Wisconsin, 47% support Harris and Trump respectively. 

Support for Harris surpassed Biden’s support from earlier this month in all five states; in Arizona, by four points (Biden’s 40% to Harris’ 44%), Georgia by five points (41% to 46%), Michigan by three points (42% to 45%), Pennsylvania by three points (43% to 46%), and Wisconsin by four points (43% to 47%). 

“Harris has recovered a portion of the vote for the Democrats on the presidential ticket since the fallout after the June 27 debate,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “Harris’ numbers now reflect similar support levels to those of Biden back in March.”

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“Young voters have shifted toward Harris: her support compared to Biden increased by 16 points in Arizona, eight in Georgia, five in Michigan, 11 in Pennsylvania, and one in Wisconsin since earlier polling this month.”

Regarding Vice President Harris’ selection of a running mate, a plurality of Arizona voters prefer Senator Mark Kelly (36%), 27% of Michigan voters prefer Gretchen Whitmer, 40% of Pennsylvania voters support Josh Shapiro, while 14% of Wisconsin voters support Bernie Sanders and 12% Pete Buttigieg. 

  • Among just Democratic voters, in Arizona 42% prefer their Senator Mark Kelly, in Pennsylvania, 57% prefer their Governor Josh Shapiro and in Michigan 36% prefer their Governor Gretchen Whitmer. Georgia and Wisconsin saw Democrats split among candidates with no one having more than around 20%.

A majority of Democratic voters in each state think Kamala Harris should be nominated at the Democratic National Convention this August. 

In the four U.S. Senate Elections, the Democratic candidate continues to lead the Republican candidate.

  • Arizona: Democrat Ruben Gallego leads Republican Kari Lake, 46% to 42%.
  • Michigan: Democrat Elissa Slotkin leads Republican Mike Rogers, 45% to 41%.
  • Pennsylvania: Democrat Bob Casey leads Republican David McCormick, 48% to 44%.
  • Wisconsin: Democrat Tammy Baldwin leads Republican Eric Hovde 49% to 43%. 

Harris favorability

  • AZ: 45% favorable; 53% unfavorable
  • GA: 47% favorable; 51% unfavorable
  • MI: 47% favorable; 50% unfavorable
  • PA: 47% favorable; 51% unfavorable
  • WI: 49% favorable; 50% unfavorable

Trump favorability

  • AZ: 49% favorable; 51% unfavorable
  • GA: 49% favorable; 50% unfavorable
  • MI: 48% favorable; 51% unfavorable
  • PA: 46% favorable, 53% unfavorable
  • WI: 47% favorable; 53% unfavorable

Biden approval 

  • AZ: 35% approve, 57% disapprove
  • GA: 40% approve, 51% disapprove
  • MI: 39% approve, 53% disapprove
  • PA: 37% approve, 55% disapprove
  • WI: 39% approve, 50% disapprove

Gubernatorial approval

  • Katie Hobbs:  37% approve, 42% disapprove
  • Brian Kemp: 49% approve, 29% disapprove
  • Gretchen Whitmer: 49% approve, 42% disapprove 
  • Josh Shapiro: 49% approve, 31% disapprove
  • Tony Evers: 44% approve, 44% disapprove

Gender divide:

Male voters

  • AZ: Trump +13 (54% to 41%)
  • GA: Trump +10 (52% to 42%)
  • MI: Trump +16 (54% to 38%)
  • PA: Trump +15 (55% to 40%)
  • WI: Trump +13 (54% to 41%)

Women voters

  • AZ: Harris +1 (46% to 45%)
  • GA: Harris +4 (48% to 44%)
  • MI: Harris +12 (52% to 40%)
  • PA: Harris +9 (51% to 42%)
  • WI: Harris +12 (54% to 42%)

Top issues:

  • AZ: 30% immigration, 25% economy, 12% housing affordability
  • GA: 41% economy, 10% immigration, 10% housing affordability
  • MI: 42% economy, 11% immigration, 11% housing affordability
  • PA: 50% economy, 9% threats to democracy, 7% immigration
  • WI: 42% economy, 10% threats to democracy, 10% housing affordability, 10% immigration

Methodology

The sample size for Arizona, Georgia, and Michigan is n=800 per state. The credibility interval for each state is +/-3.4%. The sample size in Pennsylvania is n=850, with a credibility interval of +/-3.3%. The sample size for Wisconsin is n=845, with a credibility interval of +/-3.3%. Data was weighted by statewide voter parameters, including gender, age, race/ethnicity, education, and voter registration and turnout data. 

The survey was administered by contacting respondents’ cell phones via MMS-to-web and landlines via Interactive Voice Response with respondents provided by Aristotle, along with an online panel provided by CINT. Data was collected between July 22-23, 2024. The survey was conducted by Emerson College Polling and sponsored by Emerson College & Nexstar Media.

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It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and know with a confidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times.



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Pennsylvania State Police corporal shot, wounded while serving warrant

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Pennsylvania State Police corporal shot, wounded while serving warrant


LANCASTER, Pennsylvania — A Pennsylvania State Police corporal serving a warrant on Wednesday morning in Lancaster was shot in the arm by the suspect, state police said.

The corporal, who was not identified, was taken to the hospital with a non-life-threatening wound, while the suspect was taken into custody at the scene by other members of the law enforcement team serving the warrant, state police said.

The suspect was not identified, and police did not say what charges may be filed in connection with the alleged shooting.

Police did not fire their weapons in the confrontation, which happened shortly after 6 a.m., state police said.

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State police were investigating and said the corporal was in stable condition at Lancaster General Hospital.

Copyright © 2024 by The Associated Press. All Rights Reserved.



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