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July 2024 Swing State Polls: Harris Trails Trump in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Tied in Wisconsin – Emerson Polling

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July 2024 Swing State Polls: Harris Trails Trump in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Tied in Wisconsin – Emerson Polling


Majority of Democrats in Swing States Say Harris Should be Nominated at DNC 

New Emerson College Polling/The Hill polling in five swing states finds Vice President Kamala Harris trailing former President Donald Trump in four states, and tied in Wisconsin. In Arizona, 49% support Trump and 44% support Harris. In Georgia, 48% support Trump and 46% Harris. In Michigan, 46% support Trump and 45% Harris. In Pennsylvania, 48% support Trump and 46% Harris. In Wisconsin, 47% support Harris and Trump respectively. 

Support for Harris surpassed Biden’s support from earlier this month in all five states; in Arizona, by four points (Biden’s 40% to Harris’ 44%), Georgia by five points (41% to 46%), Michigan by three points (42% to 45%), Pennsylvania by three points (43% to 46%), and Wisconsin by four points (43% to 47%). 

“Harris has recovered a portion of the vote for the Democrats on the presidential ticket since the fallout after the June 27 debate,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “Harris’ numbers now reflect similar support levels to those of Biden back in March.”

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“Young voters have shifted toward Harris: her support compared to Biden increased by 16 points in Arizona, eight in Georgia, five in Michigan, 11 in Pennsylvania, and one in Wisconsin since earlier polling this month.”

Regarding Vice President Harris’ selection of a running mate, a plurality of Arizona voters prefer Senator Mark Kelly (36%), 27% of Michigan voters prefer Gretchen Whitmer, 40% of Pennsylvania voters support Josh Shapiro, while 14% of Wisconsin voters support Bernie Sanders and 12% Pete Buttigieg. 

  • Among just Democratic voters, in Arizona 42% prefer their Senator Mark Kelly, in Pennsylvania, 57% prefer their Governor Josh Shapiro and in Michigan 36% prefer their Governor Gretchen Whitmer. Georgia and Wisconsin saw Democrats split among candidates with no one having more than around 20%.

A majority of Democratic voters in each state think Kamala Harris should be nominated at the Democratic National Convention this August. 

In the four U.S. Senate Elections, the Democratic candidate continues to lead the Republican candidate.

  • Arizona: Democrat Ruben Gallego leads Republican Kari Lake, 46% to 42%.
  • Michigan: Democrat Elissa Slotkin leads Republican Mike Rogers, 45% to 41%.
  • Pennsylvania: Democrat Bob Casey leads Republican David McCormick, 48% to 44%.
  • Wisconsin: Democrat Tammy Baldwin leads Republican Eric Hovde 49% to 43%. 

Harris favorability

  • AZ: 45% favorable; 53% unfavorable
  • GA: 47% favorable; 51% unfavorable
  • MI: 47% favorable; 50% unfavorable
  • PA: 47% favorable; 51% unfavorable
  • WI: 49% favorable; 50% unfavorable

Trump favorability

  • AZ: 49% favorable; 51% unfavorable
  • GA: 49% favorable; 50% unfavorable
  • MI: 48% favorable; 51% unfavorable
  • PA: 46% favorable, 53% unfavorable
  • WI: 47% favorable; 53% unfavorable

Biden approval 

  • AZ: 35% approve, 57% disapprove
  • GA: 40% approve, 51% disapprove
  • MI: 39% approve, 53% disapprove
  • PA: 37% approve, 55% disapprove
  • WI: 39% approve, 50% disapprove

Gubernatorial approval

  • Katie Hobbs:  37% approve, 42% disapprove
  • Brian Kemp: 49% approve, 29% disapprove
  • Gretchen Whitmer: 49% approve, 42% disapprove 
  • Josh Shapiro: 49% approve, 31% disapprove
  • Tony Evers: 44% approve, 44% disapprove

Gender divide:

Male voters

  • AZ: Trump +13 (54% to 41%)
  • GA: Trump +10 (52% to 42%)
  • MI: Trump +16 (54% to 38%)
  • PA: Trump +15 (55% to 40%)
  • WI: Trump +13 (54% to 41%)

Women voters

  • AZ: Harris +1 (46% to 45%)
  • GA: Harris +4 (48% to 44%)
  • MI: Harris +12 (52% to 40%)
  • PA: Harris +9 (51% to 42%)
  • WI: Harris +12 (54% to 42%)

Top issues:

  • AZ: 30% immigration, 25% economy, 12% housing affordability
  • GA: 41% economy, 10% immigration, 10% housing affordability
  • MI: 42% economy, 11% immigration, 11% housing affordability
  • PA: 50% economy, 9% threats to democracy, 7% immigration
  • WI: 42% economy, 10% threats to democracy, 10% housing affordability, 10% immigration

Methodology

The sample size for Arizona, Georgia, and Michigan is n=800 per state. The credibility interval for each state is +/-3.4%. The sample size in Pennsylvania is n=850, with a credibility interval of +/-3.3%. The sample size for Wisconsin is n=845, with a credibility interval of +/-3.3%. Data was weighted by statewide voter parameters, including gender, age, race/ethnicity, education, and voter registration and turnout data. 

The survey was administered by contacting respondents’ cell phones via MMS-to-web and landlines via Interactive Voice Response with respondents provided by Aristotle, along with an online panel provided by CINT. Data was collected between July 22-23, 2024. The survey was conducted by Emerson College Polling and sponsored by Emerson College & Nexstar Media.

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It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and know with a confidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times.



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Sen. John Fetterman receives no support for re-election from Pennsylvania House Democrats: report

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Sen. John Fetterman receives no support for re-election from Pennsylvania House Democrats: report


Pennsylvania Democrats are reluctant to support Sen. John Fetterman, D-Pa., for re-election, according to a new report.

Punchbowl News spoke to several Pennsylvania congressional members on Monday about whether they’d be willing to endorse Fetterman for another term in 2028 despite the backlash he’s been facing for opposing the Democratic Party.

“Want a sense of how tenuous Sen. John Fetterman’s (D-Pa.) position is with Pennsylvania Democrats? Not a single Pennsylvania House Democrat in the delegation will say Fetterman should run for re-election as a Democrat,” the report said.

Though the House members did not explicitly reject the idea of Fetterman running again, they avoided answering whether they believed Fetterman should seek a second term as a Democrat, often focusing instead on the 2026 midterm elections.

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“My focus right now is on 2026, but I would just say I’d be very surprised if he ran in the Democratic primary for the U.S. Senate,” Rep. Brendan Boyle said.

Rep. Chris Deluzio also answered that he would see what happens after 2026, though Punchbowl News acknowledged both he and Boyle are rumored to be launching their own Senate bids in 2028.

Rep. Mary Gay Scanlon added that she was interested in “getting through 2026 first.”

“I’ll hold my tongue so I don’t get in trouble,” Scanlon said.

Rep. Summer Lee told Punchbowl News the decision was “up to him” whether Fetterman should run, though she added that he would do so “at his own peril.”

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Sen. John Fetterman has received no support from Pennsylvania Democrats for his re-election bid. WILL OLIVER/EPA/Shutterstock

Others were more vocal about their disagreements with Fetterman, though they stopped short of rejecting the idea of Fetterman running again.

“My concern is entirely about him and his health, and I’ll let 2028 take care of itself,” Rep. Madeleine Dean said.

“I disagree with many of his votes.”


Senator John Fetterman, wearing a black hoodie, speaks to reporters who are holding up cell phones to record him.
Several House members didn’t directly comment on whether Fetterman should seek a second term and instead turned their attention to the 2026 midterm elections. AP

“It’s no secret that I’ve been disappointed with some of his votes and that I’m confused by it,” Rep. Chrissy Houlahan added.

“But I’m not responsible for deciding whether he runs again.”

Fox News Digital reached out to Fetterman’s office and the other Pennsylvania Democrats mentioned in the report for comment.

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Fetterman has publicly spoken out against his party on several issues, particularly its growing hostility against Israel.

The Pennsylvania senator has also supported President Donald Trump in his ongoing war against Iran and strict border policies.

Though strategists have suggested Fetterman could switch parties because of his bipartisan stance, he previously ruled out leaving the Democratic Party last year.

“I’m not going to switch. I’m just going to be an independent voice in the Democratic Party. I’m not going to be afraid of people,” Fetterman said.

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Leon Smith of Pennsylvania named 2026 National Teacher of the Year:

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Leon Smith of Pennsylvania named 2026 National Teacher of the Year:


“CBS Mornings” exclusively revealed Pennsylvania high school teacher Leon Smith as the 2026 National Teacher of the Year, which is selected by the Council of Chief State School Officers’ National Teacher of the Year program.

Smith, a social studies teacher at Haverford High School in Havertown, Pennsylvania, said the honor “just means everything.”

“It’s just such an honor to be able to represent teachers all over the country and really stand on the shoulders of so many others that have come before me that have done just such great work,” Smith said in an interview with “CBS Mornings” on Tuesday.

Smith, who teaches AP U.S. history and AP African American studies, was previously named the 2025 Pennsylvania Teacher of the Year.

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In a video, students at Haverford High School and colleagues described Smith as passionate, caring, charismatic and engaging.

“He is everything you want in a teacher,” principal Pete Donaghy said in the video. “He relates African American studies or U.S. history to his students.”

Smith reflected on the difference teachers can make in the lives of their students. For him, his favorite teacher was his first grade teacher, Ms. Mason.

“Just how she made me feel,” Smith said. “So I just think that’s the power of a teacher, that it’s not always the content but it’s how you make the students feel is what they remember.” 

Smith said he thinks it’s crucial to let students “know that you care.”

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“And also just being able to see things in students that they cannot see in themselves.”

Smith is also a longtime basketball coach, coaching the freshman team at Haverford High School.

“I was one of his players and he made sure that I felt seen,” a former player told “CBS Mornings.” “He made me feel like I actually had a purpose.”

Smith’s love for basketball started when he was young. His favorite player ever is Julius Erving, known as Dr. J., who Smith said made him “fall in love” with the game.

Erving surprised Smith on “CBS Mornings” by congratulating him in person on being named the National Teacher of the Year.

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“When I got the notification about Leon, I realized that his school Haverford is literally right around the corner from a house that I lived in for 11 years,” Erving said. “So there was a connection … I said, ‘Well, let’s go and be on the show. Go see some people. Spread some joy. Spread some love.’”

Erving recalled a teacher who had an impact on his life.

“The most significant was Mr. Ray Wilson, who actually taught special ed in my high school, but he was also my basketball coach,” Erving said, describing Wilson as a lifelong mentor.

“He lived until he was in his 80s, and he was always there. He was always my first call anytime anything came up. Big or small, I could always call him, anytime, day or night. That was special.”

Smith called meeting Erving an honor and said he’s thankful for a moment that he’ll never forget.

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Officials react to Pennsylvania abortion ruling, Medicaid ban struck down

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Officials react to Pennsylvania abortion ruling, Medicaid ban struck down


A Pennsylvania court ruling is reshaping abortion access in the state, striking down a decades-old ban on using Medicaid to pay for abortions and declaring that the Pennsylvania Constitution guarantees a right to abortion.

The decision came Monday from the state’s Commonwealth Court. In a 4-3 vote, judges ruled in favor of abortion rights in Pennsylvania and invalidated the state’s restriction on Medicaid-funded abortions.

Local abortion-rights advocates praised the ruling as a major step toward protecting access for low-income residents. Adrienne Daily, co-founder of Johnstown for Choice, said, “Everybody should have the right to that. If you restrict the coverage, you’re obviously discriminating against those that have lower income.”

Opponents of abortion rights called the decision a dramatic expansion of the court’s power and warned it will force taxpayers to pay for procedures they oppose. Michael Geer, president of the Pennsylvania Family Institute, said, “Taxpayers now in Pennsylvania will have no choice under this court ruling to fund abortions. And there are many, many millions of Pennsylvanians who think abortion is wrong. It’s the taking of an innocent human life and to force taxpayers who conscientiously object to abortion to then fund it is just plain wrong.”

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Abortion-rights advocates pushed back, arguing abortion access is healthcare and a personal decision. Daily said, “This is a family issue. This is a personal issue. This is a bodily autonomy issue.”

Pro-life leaders also warned the ruling could have broader implications for other abortion-related laws. Geer said, “It is sweeping and there’s no question it’s judicial overreach.” He added, “If this ruling stands, it will invite attacks on every remaining pro-life safeguard that has been put into law by lawmakers at the behest to the people of Pennsylvania over decades.”

The case could still be appealed to the Pennsylvania Supreme Court. That decision lies with Republican Attorney General Dave Sunday. His office has not provided a response, but the Associated Press reported a spokesperson said the office is reviewing the decision and did not say whether it will appeal.



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