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New Hampshire

CBS News poll: Trump leads in Iowa and New Hampshire, where retail campaigning hasn’t closed the gap

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CBS News poll: Trump leads in Iowa and New Hampshire, where retail campaigning hasn’t closed the gap


The conventional wisdom is that retail politics — the door-knocking, hand-shaking grassroots campaigning for months before the primaries — make Iowa and New Hampshire different from what we see nationally. And like a lot of conventional wisdom these days, that’s looking outdated.

Today, national frontrunner and former President Donald Trump also leads the Republican primary field comfortably in both Iowa and New Hampshire. And most of his supporters are backing him enthusiastically. His current margins would translate to him getting half of Iowa’s delegates and the lion’s share in New Hampshire.

GOP voters in both states overwhelmingly say their focus is on national, not state, issues. 

Nor is there much provinciality when it comes to asking for time in-state. Trump’s lead is much the same whether people feel it’s important to see candidates stump in Iowa or New Hampshire, or not.

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As in years past, these states might share a place on the calendar, but not always an ideology. 

One important difference today is on abortion. In Iowa, most GOP caucus voters would not only have abortion be illegal, but would also criminally punish a woman for having one. That’s not the case in New Hampshire.

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In another gauge of what’s driving the campaign, voters in both states report seeing ads on television and social media, more than any direct contact with a campaign or a volunteer.

All of the above will probably still matter on the organizational front, when people actually have to caucus or stand in line to vote this winter.

The impact of local political endorsers, like governors and congressional leaders, looks limited at best. It may be that in an era of big-spending campaigns and social media — when voters can hear the opinions of so many — top elected officials, even friends and family, don’t necessarily carry that much weight. That said, it may also be a function of a contest where the leading candidate is so well-known, and voters don’t need endorsements as much to get to know the field.

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For now, however, the dominant power of being a well-known and still popular former president in Republican circles appears to have the same outsized impact on preference in these states as it does nationally.

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Trump’s perceived strengths, including electability

Trump’s big lead comes because, of the qualities tested, he does very well on being seen as prepared and as a strong leader. Few describe Trump as likable. While fewer than half say he understands people like them or describe him as a “true conservative,” he nonetheless has a dominant lead among self-described conservative voters. 

Perceived electability is also very important, and Trump is the only candidate whom a majority of Republican primary voters think would definitely beat President Biden.

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More broadly, Republican primary voters in Iowa and New Hampshire differ somewhat on the best strategy to create a winning coalition for the general election. And it appears to matter to their vote choice. 

In Iowa, a slight majority of Republican primary voters say it’s more important to motivate the base than appeal to moderates and independents. In New Hampshire, appealing to moderates and independents is more prevalent — probably because there simply are more independents involved there.

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Trump leads overwhelmingly among those who think the nominee should appeal to the base. But among those who prefer a nominee with wider appeal, Trump drops below majority support — even if those voters haven’t coalesced on an alternative.

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The second tier: Voters are still shopping around, but the non-Trump vote is splintered

In what seems a race for a distant second, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis stands in Iowa about where he’s been in our national tracking. In New Hampshire, Nikki Haley and Chris Christie are doing better than they’ve done nationally, primarily because they are doing better among independent voters likely to turn out in the Republican primary than among out-and-out Republicans.

Even if these two states don’t always pick the eventual nominee, they historically have played another role in the primary campaign. They often winnow the field, and sometimes a single alternative to the frontrunner emerges. There are plenty of possibilities for that to occur this year, but as of now, support for candidates in the second tier remains very fragmented.

In both states, most voters are still considering multiple candidates. In fact, just a fifth in Iowa and about a quarter in New Hampshire are considering Trump and nobody else, making his support “floor” a bit lower in these early states than it looks nationwide. Most of Trump’s backers are considering at least one other candidate, and these voters are more likely to say they’re supporting him “with some reservations” than Trump-and-only-Trump voters are. And in both states, only-Trump voters are outnumbered by the third of the electorate who aren’t considering him at all.

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Voters considering choices other than Trump say they are doing so to keep their options open. They also show concern about Trump’s controversies and legal fights, and think the party should consider someone new. Few say it’s because he could lose to Mr. Biden. And few say they don’t like Trump personally or that he doesn’t represent their state’s values (though they’re likelier to say so in New Hampshire than in Iowa).

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Non-Trump voters tend to be actively considering more candidates on average — half of them are currently considering three or more, underscoring that fragmentation. DeSantis is being considered by the most non-Trump voters in Iowa, while Haley leads in consideration by that group in New Hampshire, followed closely by DeSantis.

Back to those independents in New Hampshire: Even though they are less supportive of Trump, he’s still winning them easily, due in part to Haley, Christie and DeSantis splitting the bulk of the non-Trump voters among themselves. This is the same dynamic we saw in the 2016 primary, when Trump carried independents with only around a third of their votes. Where his challengers end up this year may depend on the eventual turnout of independents — they constituted a sizable segment of the 2012 and 2016 primary electorate — as well as whether they start to coalesce around an alternative.

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Abortion and the campaign

Abortion not only plays an important role in GOP primaries, but also marks a large difference between these two states.

In New Hampshire, unlike in Iowa, half of Republican primary voters think abortion should be legal in all or most cases.

Most Iowa Republican primary voters think a woman should be criminally punished for having an abortion. Most New Hampshire voters disagree.

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Trump leads no matter how these voters feel about abortion. 

But the second tier looks a little different in New Hampshire, where relatively more voters would have abortion be legal. Trump still leads, but by a significantly smaller margin, with Christie and Haley edging out DeSantis for second and third place. 

For the four in 10 Trump voters who think abortion should be legal in New Hampshire, few are considering Christie, and about half say they at least might consider Haley — particularly the women among them.

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The second debate

There is interest in the second presidential debate, with most Republican voters planning to watch, and most saying the presidential debates are a major factor for them in evaluating the candidates. Trump is not planning to attend Wednesday’s debate, but many of his supporters say debates are a major factor, perhaps because most of his voters are at least considering other candidates at this point.

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The race for delegates — what ultimately matters

Candidates’ current standing in our polling would translate to Trump picking up about half the delegates in Iowa and the majority of New Hampshire’s relatively small delegate haul. Specifically, he would bring in about 20 of Iowa’s 40 delegates and 17 of New Hampshire’s 22.

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These are not forecasts, but instead a translation of voters’ current preferences to delegate breakdowns. While the first two states account for just a small portion of the roughly 1,200 delegates needed to clinch the Republican nomination, the delegate tally is the score that ultimately matters. And emerging from early contests with a small number of delegates versus none at all can help candidates decide whether to stay in the race or drop out.

We produce estimates via statistical simulation, in which we use the variation in our survey data to simulate the state’s vote one thousand times, enumerating lots of possible outcomes. Each simulation incorporates the rules of the nominating contest in that state, such as delegate rounding and thresholds. (We used a similar technique to estimate delegates during the 2020 Democratic primary campaign.)

The end result is delegate range for each candidate — again, indicating where the race stands today, not where it will end up next year. Trump’s current support translates to between 18 and 23 delegates in Iowa, where delegates are allocated proportionally based on the statewide vote. DeSantis is in a distant second with 6 to 10 delegates, and the rest of the field tends to pick up at most a few delegates each.

In New Hampshire, where candidates have to win at least 10% of votes statewide to qualify for any delegates, Trump dominates. Our simulations indicate his support translates to between 14 and 20 delegates, even though only half of the state’s primary voters name him their first choice. Since there isn’t a clear second-place candidate, four candidates are hovering around that 10% threshold: DeSantis, Haley, Christie, and Vivek Ramaswamy. In some simulations, they qualify for a few delegates. In many, they fall a little short and get nothing, helping pad the front-runner’s lead.


These CBS News/YouGov surveys were conducted between September 15-24, 2023. They are based on representative samples of 1,011 registered voters in Iowa and 943 in New Hampshire. The samples were weighted according to gender, age, race, education, and geographic region based on the U.S. Census Current Population Survey, as well as past vote. Results here are reported among likely Republican caucus/primary voters, and have a margin of error of ±6.1 points in Iowa (n=458) and ±5.4 points in New Hampshire (n=502).

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New Hampshire

Daycare owner, employees arrested in New Hampshire for secretly feeding children melatonin

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Daycare owner, employees arrested in New Hampshire for secretly feeding children melatonin


A daycare owner and three of her employees turned themselves in on child endangerment charges in New Hampshire after investigators said they were sprinkling melatonin on children’s food, Manchester Police said.

Daycare owner Sally Dreckmann, 52, and her employees Traci Innie, 51, Kaitlin Filardo, 23 and Jessica Foster, 23, of Manchester were taken into police custody after a lengthy investigation led by the Manchester Police Juvenile Division determined that they were lacing children’s food with melatonin without the consent and knowledge of their parents, the Manchester Police said Thursday.

“All four were charged with 10 counts of Endangering the Welfare of a Child,” police said.

Authorities said that an investigation into the case was initiated in November 2023 after “detectives received a report alleging unsafe practices going on in an in-home daycare” in west Manchester.

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An investigation into the incident is ongoing and the police have not yet detailed the course of action.

What is melatonin?

Melatonin is a “hormone that your brain produces in response to darkness,” according to the National Center for Complementary and Integrative Health (NCCIH), that helps with sleep.

“Melatonin supplements may help with certain conditions, such as jet lag, delayed sleep-wake phase disorder, some sleep disorders in children, and anxiety before and after surgery,” the NCCIH says.

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While short-term use of melatonin supplements is considered to be safe for most people, the NCCIH recommends parents to consult a health care provider before administering it to their children as “use of over-the-counter melatonin might place children and teenagers at risk for accidental or intentional overdose.” However, information on the long-term effects of melatonin use in children is limited and parents are advised to exercise caution.

Saman Shafiq is a trending news reporter for USA TODAY. Reach her at sshafiq@gannett.com and follow her on X @saman_shafiq7.



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Millyard Musuem exhibit looks at history of public housing in Manchester | Manchester Ink Link

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Millyard Musuem exhibit looks at history of public housing in Manchester | Manchester Ink Link


Reception at the Millyard Museum for the historic housing exhibition. Photo/Stacy Harrison

MANCHESTER, NH – On Wednesday, May 8, a small crowd of privileged guests filled the exhibit hall of the Millyard Museum to get a sneak preview of an exhibit that tells the story of the Manchester Housing and Redevelopment Authority; a story eight decades in the making, which Kathy Naczas, Executive Director of MHRA, describes as “a cornerstone of Manchester’s history.”

The MHRA, along with thousands of other Housing Authorities in the country, have been fighting since 1937, after the passing of the US Housing Act, to provide affordable public housing in cities and towns. The fruits of this fight have touched “all but one of Manchester’s boroughs,” Naczas said. 

“There’s just so many things that [the MHRA] were involved with and a lot of folks in the city don’t even know that,” Naczas said. 

It took until 1941 for MHRA to be confirmed by Manchester citizens, raising it up as the first housing authority in the state. Just three years later they completed their first project, an 85-unit “emergency temporary war housing development known as Grenier Heights off South Willow Street,” according to History of the Manchester Housing & Redevelopment Authority, by Lisa Mausolf, a packet distributed at the exhibit preview. The development created housing for “indisposable in-migrant civilian war workers,” according to Mausolf.

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From left, Museum executive director Jeff Barraclough, Aurora Levesque, Catherine Kathy Naczas, Shannon Wright, Lisa Mausolf and Dan Naczas. Photo/Stacy Harrison

Postwar, The MHRA hit the ground running completing several housing projects for returning veteran families at what was Barry Playground on Pine Street. 

The MHRA met the need for low-income housing post-war as well by building The Rimmon Heights Housing Project, “the first state-assisted housing project constructed in NH,” according to Mausolf. 

Construction went from 48, opening in October of 49 and was praised as “one of the most modern and substations subsidized high-cost, low rent apartment projects in the country,” by Manchester Sunday News. Rimmon Heights is still around, now known as Kelly Falls after being renamed in 1988.

The MHRA would continue for another two decades building and renewing housing projects all over Manchester until 1961, when they began its most ambitious and influential undertaking, The Amoskeag Millyard Urban Renewal Project in, the project that Naczas calls “the centerpiece,” of MHRA’s legacy.

According to Mausolf and Naczas, “The Amoskeag Millyard Project was the first industrial rehabilitation project in the nation undertaken under federal urban renewal legislation…and was considered the most ambitious industrial urban renewal project ever done in our nation (at the time).” The project cost 24 million dollars and took twelve years to complete.

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The Millyard at the time was a commercial space that represented nearly a quarter of Manchester’s workforce, according to Mausolf. If the Millyard was to keep its economic momentum it needed desperate adaptations to coincide with modern industry. Parking and shipping lanes were dismal, the canal and its sewer systems were becoming a health hazard, buildings were stacked on top of each other, too narrow for modern manufacturing and many were in disrepair, infested by blight or worse, anthrax.


Photo Gallery/Stacy Harrison


All in all it was determined that one-third of the Millyard and its components had to go. The canal was filled in, buildings were refurbished or torn down and by the end of 1979 the Millyard we know today was complete.

What Naczas finds the most special about this exhibit is how well-documented the MHRA’s work was and all the hurdles it cleared on the path toward its completion. 

The idea for the exhibit took shape after Naczas was shown a “historians’ treasure trove” that had been quietly fermenting in the attic of the MHRA’s office. “It had 3-D models, original architectural drawings, it had field books…it was an amazing collection…it needed to be preserved,” she said

Naczas promptly contacted the then-director of the Manchester Historical Association, John Clayton, who she said, was just as thrilled to come across the cache.

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Then along came Covid, which put the project on a seemingly permanent hiatus. Years passed until the project could resurface, when local artist Dave Hady was commissioned to create a mural on one of the pillars of the Bridge Street bridge outside Arms Park. 

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Dave Hady’s pillar mural depicting Joe Nelson of Manchester, who was instrumental in the preservation and revival of the millyard.

“It was Dave’s Mural that reminded me of all the history that (the MHRA) had and that we needed to revisit preserving all of the stuff that was in that attic,” Naczas said.

 And Naczas is right; the mural is a powerful metaphor honoring those hidden civil servants who, in regards to the mural at least, quite literally hold up the infrastructure of cities all around the country. 

As the project officially got underway Naczas and her colleagues, faced with the sheer amount of historical records and data, realized the need for a historic intern.

“We knew this project was going to be time-consuming and if we had to catalog and painstakingly go through everything, trying to decide what needed to be preserved and what we could discard…I could not possibly fathom doing this project,” Naczas said. 

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Aurora Levesque from Rivier University came recommended by Dan Naczas, Academic and Career advisor for Rivier University and relative of Kathy Naczas. 

“She is and was the absolute perfect intern, Dan was one hundred percent right, but she is also the most remarkable young person I have met in a long time,” Naczas said.

Levesque was described as the lynch pin of the whole exhibit. “Without her this story would have never been told and this exhibit would never have happened,” Naczas said.

“Aurora worked tirelessly for ten months in a large dusty attic, with very old files and artifacts, in extreme heat and extreme cold. And I will forever have the image of Aurora sitting in an attic with two space heaters, gloves and a winter coat, painstakingly going through every file, every article, every deed, every picture and dusting things off…it was an amazing effort. I could not have asked for a better person who would appreciate the story that needed to be told,” Naczas said.

Naczas’ appreciation was even higher because she was somewhat part of the story herself. Her father Kenny Harlen worked for the MHRA. 

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“I attended every grand opening of every high-rise building, the center of New Hampshire. There are pictures of me as an elf handing out Christmas gifts to the seniors in our properties…I also had a front-row seat to the Millyard Project…Joe Nelson was my Uncle.” Naczas said. “So this is as much my legacy exhibit as it is the Housing Authority’s.” 

MHRA commissioner, Andrew Papanicolaou came to the podium for closing remarks before letting attendees view the exhibit. He highlighted the history of the Housing Authority and why its mission is still as important, if not more important today as it was back then.

Papanicolaou grew up in Manchester running around his grandfather’s hotel, The Shadelock. The hotel stood where The Center of New Hampshire, which was an MHRA project, is now.

“I have been involved with the MHRA since 2016…but I guess I was first introduced to the Housing Authority when they took down my grandfather’s hotel,” Papanicolaou said.

Papanicolaou described his grandfather’s hotel as a rooming house. “It helped out a lot of the unfortunate, a lot of the veterans were there…There were 31 rooms and it was an integral part of the city because it was subsidized so people would have a place to live,” Papanicolaou said.

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Papanicolaou said bringing those types of support to the city back is one of the biggest goals for the MHRA. 

“I wish there were similar types of facilities today because we wouldn’t have some of the issues we have in the city if we still had them,” Papanicolaou said.   

Looking to the future, Papanicolau highlighted the fact that the MHRA is fighting the same fight as so many citizens of New Hampshire are fighting; the pursuit of affordable housing. He said the MHRA is getting back to its redevelopment roots, just finishing the Upland Heights project, a 132-unit apartment complex on the west side, which Papanicolau says is “truly affordable housing for the city; it’s what the city needs.” 

Papanicolau describes the work of the MHRA as integral to Manchester’s future. 

“The city needs more of our involvement to get people into this type of housing,” Papanicolau said. 

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“If you’ve grown up [in Manchester] you know the demographics of this city. The housing that is being built in this city right now is not for those demographics, it never will be. ” Papanicolau said. 

Papanicolau would like to be optimistic and hope that outside citizens will invest in Manchester, but he knows deep down he can only for certain count on the institution he represents. “The housing authority and its developments is that critical part we need to keep going in the city,” he said. 

At the end of the day Papanicolau recognizes that the work the MHRA does in the present is just as important as it was in the past, speaking of the Upland Heights project.

“It was really amazing to see the reaction of all the employees when they started to fill those units…it really hit home that what we do as employees [at the MHRA] affects lives, because so many people were happy to be in those homes. That’s what’s amazing about what we do as a whole and what we bring to the city, which I’m going to try to be a part of for as long as I can,” Papanicolau said. 

And with those words the attendees departed for the exhibit. We flooded into the adjacent room to inspect the records and the story they told for ourselves. If you would like to learn more of the story of the MHRA or see the exhibit for yourself make your way to the Manchester Millyard Museum at 200 Bedford Street. 

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Summer Comes To New Hampshire A Month Early — With Temps In The 80s: Get Out

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Summer Comes To New Hampshire A Month Early — With Temps In The 80s: Get Out


CONCORD, NH — If you have been waiting for some warm weather, it is about to arrive.

According to weather forecasters, it will feel like summer this week, just a tad earlier.

On Monday, expect sunny skies with highs in the upper 70s and lows in the mid-50s. There will be a light breeze in the afternoon.

It will mostly be sunny again on Tuesday with highs in the upper 80s and lows in the lower 60s. There will also be a bit of light wind.

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Forecasters said Wednesday will be mostly sunny and hot — with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. The temps will drop back down into the mid-60s during the evening and morning hours.

There is a 40 percent chance of showers after 2 p.m. on Thursday, with highs in the upper 80s and lows in the mid-50s, with a 30 percent chance of showers before 8 p.m. in the evening.

The weekend looks good, too, with sunny skies and highs in the 70s.

The latest weather conditions can be found on the front page of every Patch.com site in the United States, including the 14 New Hampshire Patch news and community websites covering Amherst, Bedford, Concord, Exeter, Hampton, Londonderry, Manchester, Merrimack, Milford, Nashua, North Hampton, Portsmouth, Salem, Windham, and Across NH. Local weather reports for New Hampshire are posted on Sundays and Thursdays. Alerts are published when needed.

Get Out, New Hampshire

Here is a roundup of fun things to do in the Granite State.

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