The 2022 election cycle has discovered the GOP extra aggressive in New England than it has been in years. Former Windfall Mayor Allan Fung (R), who’s operating to fill the open U.S. Home seat at present held by Congressman Jim Langevin (D), is up within the polls heading into Election Day. In New Hampshire, in the meantime, the Republican nominee for U.S. Senate, Don Bolduc, obtained monetary backing within the major from Senator Chuck Schumer as a result of Democrats considered Bolduc as a extra beatable opponent in November. But Bolduc now has a really actual probability to win, with the Actual Clear Politics polling common displaying him to be in a useless warmth with incumbent Senator Maggie Hassan (D).

In Maine, nevertheless, the final ballot launched earlier than the election has Governor Janet Mills (D) with an eight level lead over her Republican challenger, former Governor Paul LePage (R). But even when Mills wins reelection, there’s a first rate probability she’ll be pressured to work with a Republican-led statehouse, not less than partially, for the primary time.

The Portland Press-Herald reported {that a} Mills reelection means Democrats “would have the facility to implement insurance policies on points resembling abortion, taxes, well being care and power.” But that’s solely true if Democrats additionally preserve management of each chambers of the state legislature in Augusta and polling reveals that’s removed from sure.

The Maine Democratic Celebration and outdoors teams backing Democratic state legislative candidates have outspent Republicans in an effort to take care of management of the legislature. Of the 151 seats within the Maine Home of Representatives, Democrats maintain 76. With 9 seats vacant and three held by Independents, Republicans might want to acquire 13 seats to take management of the chamber.

Management of the Maine Senate, the place Democrats maintain 22 seats and Republicans have 13, can also be in play. A lot of the spending on state legislative races in Maine this cycle, in reality, has gone towards state senate races. Democrats have deployed sources to defend outstanding members of their Senate caucus, together with Senate President Troy Jackson (D-Allagash). Within the race to oust the Senate President, whose district went for Donald Trump in each 2016 and 2020, a couple of million {dollars} has been spent on each side in response to a November 3 report.

Louis Jacobson with the Heart for Politics at UVA wrote on October 20 that the Maine Legislature is “one of many GOP’s prime alternatives for a legislative takeover.” Jacobson added that “openness to ticket-splitting, each in New England typically and Maine particularly, might produce a flipped legislative chamber or two.”

If Republicans win management of the Maine Senate, that can make it fives instances prior to now seven elections that partisan management of the higher chamber in Maine has flipped. Republicans would favor to win again management of each legislative chambers and the governor’s mansion, little question. However even when the GOP takes management of just one legislative chamber, be that the Home or the Senate, that might have important coverage implications that enormously have an effect on the kind of laws to be enacted in Maine over the subsequent two years.

2022 would be the third election cycle beneath Maine’s controversial ranked alternative voting system for federal candidates, which no different state makes use of apart from Alaska. Final yr, Governor Mills and the Democratic-led legislature made Maine the primary state within the nation to enact an Prolonged Producer Duty (EPR) program, which is able to place a price on all client items bought in plastic packaging. Because the enactment of that invoice in Augusta, Governors Gavin Newsom (D-Calif.), Kate Brown (D-Ore.), and Jared Polis (D-Colo.) signed comparable laws. One Illinois legislator appreciated the Maine EPR invoice a lot she launched a model that even maintained the EPR price exemption for frozen wild blueberries included within the Maine regulation.

The times of Maine Democrats implementing progressive coverage proposals not but examined anyplace else will come to an finish if Republicans take management of only one legislative chamber. If Republicans seize just one chamber of the state legislature and nothing else, that might additionally imply tax hikes are possible off the desk, not less than for the subsequent two years. That’s as a result of Maine Consultant John Andrews has labored onerous to get fellow incumbents and candidates operating for Home or Senate to signal the Taxpayer Safety Pledge. Amongst present and potential workplace holders, practically 70 incumbents and challengers for a seat within the Maine Home or Senate have signed the pledge this cycle, as has Paul LePage.

“We should elect a majority of legislators dedicated to reducing the tax burden on the onerous working individuals of our state,” says Maine Consultant John Andrews (R-Paris). “Fortunately, a report two-thirds of Republican incumbents within the Maine Home have signed the Pledge and can be devoted to it. That’s how we chart a course to prosperity in Maine.”

The dedication that these incumbents and challengers in Maine have made to voters is similar promise that Governors Ron DeSantis, Glenn Youngkin, Greg Abbott, and fourteen different governors have made. Whereas 17 incumbent governors have signed a pledge to oppose and veto any invoice that might end in a web tax hike, that quantity might develop in 2023. That’s as a result of quite a lot of 2022 gubernatorial candidates who polls present have a great probability of being sworn in come January — resembling Tudor Dixon in Michigan and Kari Lake in Arizona — have additionally made that very same dedication to voters.

If Republicans had been to take again management of all of Maine state authorities, that can imply it was an outstanding midterm election for the GOP. However Republicans don’t should win again every thing in Maine to vary the route through which the state is heading in from a coverage standpoint. The way in which many see it, Maine is at a fork within the highway on the subject of the route of state governance. The end result of the 2022 midterms will decide whether or not the way forward for coverage and governance in Maine appears extra like New Hampshire or Vermont.

“Maine faces a pivotal election on November eighth and each vote will matter,” Consultant Andrews added. “It’s crucial that liberty lovers and financial conservatives vote in report numbers to revive our foundational and financial freedoms.”

Maine gained’t grow to be a no-income-tax state like New Hampshire if Republicans solely win again management of 1 legislative chamber. However profitable one chamber will definitely forestall Maine from persevering with to compete with the like of Oregon, California, and Vermont on the subject of the implementation of novel progressive reforms.