Northeast
Five sleeper races that could upend 2026 – from the Alleghenies to the Land of Enchantment
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As Clement Moore’s “‘Twas the Night Before Christmas” tells it, families sleep soundly as Santa approaches.
As the new year nears, several election contests may prove just as quiet – until close results suddenly come into focus. Here are five potential sleeper races to watch in 2026:
1. MISSISSIPPI’S 2ND CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT
Rep. Bennie Thompson, the top Democrat on the House Homeland Security Committee, has not often had to worry about a general election challenge since he won a special election on April 13, 1993.
Predecessor Mike Espy, who recently unsuccessfully ran for Senate in a narrow runoff with Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith, R-Miss., had resigned to accept President Bill Clinton’s appointment as Secretary of Agriculture.
Thompson’s closest race was that one – against Republican Hayes Dent – at 55% to 45%.
Since then, Thompson has never looked back, and instead made himself a nationally-recognized figure later in his tenure.
He chaired the House Select Committee on January 6 and recently went viral for calling the shooting of West Virginia National Guardsmen allegedly by an Afghan refugee an “unfortunate accident.”
Thompson’s district, spanning from Jackson west to Yazoo City and Vicksburg on the Mississippi River, is one of the poorest in the country – landing at 3rd out of 435 with a median income of $37,372, according to data published by the office of Rep. Marcy Kaptur, D-Ohio.
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Rep. Glenn Ivey (D-MD) speaks to Rep. Bennie Thompson (D-MS) at the Butler Farm Show in Butler, Pennsylvania, on Monday, July 22, 2024. (Derek Shook for Fox News Digital )
Only Rep. Hal Rogers, R-Ky., and Ritchie Torres, D-N.Y. preside over a poorer population.
Last week, an attorney and former counsel to Sen. Charles Schumer, D-N.Y., mounted a surprise primary bid against Thompson.
Evan Turnage, 33, who has been alive just about the same time Thompson has been in Congress, made the idea of fighting the region’s persistent poverty paramount to his new campaign, according to Black Press USA.
“I’ve dedicated my life to leveling the playing field so people can not only get by, but get ahead, and raise a family right here,” Turnage said, according to the outlet.
On the Republican side, retired Army captain and Vicksburg cardiothoracic surgeon Ron Eller will fight an uphill battle to unseat the winner of the Thompson-Turnage bout.
2. CONNECTICUT’S 5TH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT
Connecticut is another state that is typically not in political conversation as hosting nail-biter partisan elections.
During the Bush-Clinton years, however, the state was competitive if not outright Republican-favored.
Former Gov. John Rowland was the first in decades to be elected to more than two terms. He ended up resigning in 2004 amid the threat of impeachment over accusations contractors with the state were doing work on his vacation home.
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After he resigned, his wife famously wrote a poem critical of the media’s coverage of Rowland’s case, based on Moore’s holiday favorite and called “A Lump of Coal for All the Reporters.” Rowland’s lieutenant, Gov. M. Jodi Rell, took over and was re-elected once before retiring in 2010.
Since then, the state has been reliably Democratic – save for former Sen. Joe Lieberman changing his affiliation to independent.
In 2022, then-State Sen. George Logan – the first Black man elected to Hartford’s upper chamber – mounted a bid against Rep. Jahana Hayes and lost by less than one percentage point.
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Jahana Hayes, D-CT (left) and her 2024 GOP challenger George Logan (right). (Getty & AP )
Logan tried again in 2024, but lost by a slightly wider margin.
While Logan is not on the ballot at least yet for 2026, recent history shows Republicans could have an outside chance of ending Democrats’ full control of New England’s congressional delegation.
3. MARYLAND’S 6TH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT
Republicans have wanted to win back Maryland’s sixth congressional district ever since partisan gerrymandering was blamed for booting 20-year incumbent Rep. Roscoe Bartlett, R-Md., from office in 2012.
Bartlett, an eccentric conservative who later relocated to the West Virginia wilderness to live off-the-grid, is now 99, and was known for addressing various topics that were sometimes ignored but have received newfound attention at present, including warnings about the strength, reliability and hardening of the U.S. power grid.
Bartlett won his last reelection by 28 points but then lost by about 20 the following cycle after the rural district encompassing the entire Maryland Panhandle was adjusted to incorporate the edges of densely-populated Washington, D.C., suburbs.
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He was defeated in 2013 by then-Rep. John Delaney, a finance executive – before Delaney was replaced by Total Wine mogul David Trone, who has largely self-funded his campaigns to the tune of millions of dollars.
Trone won re-election before opting in 2024 to pursue retiring Sen. Benjamin Cardin’s, D-Md., seat – which was ultimately won by Democrat Angela Alsobrooks.
He announced this year that he would challenge Rep. April McClain-Delaney, D-Md., the wife of former Rep. John Delaney, in the district.
Meanwhile, former longtime state Del. Neil Parrott, R-Antietam, is mounting his fourth consecutive bid for the seat. McClain-Delaney beat Parrott 53-47 in 2024.
The closest that Republicans have gotten to taking back the seat since Bartlett was defeated came in 2014, when now-FBI Deputy Director Dan Bongino narrowly lost to Trone by about a point.
Bongino notably sought to nationalize the race, pulling in endorsements like Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., and rebuking Delaney as someone who could “write himself a check for a million dollars” if he needed to in order to win.
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Del. Neil Parrott, left., former Rep. Roscoe Bartlett, R-Md., right. (Tom Williams/Getty Images)
The future G-man suggested at the time he would rather knock on doors in far-flung communities like Oakland and Grantsville, where he said, “nobody seems to know who [John Delaney] is,” according to the Maryland Reporter.
Given newly-drawn, friendlier maps following litigation over O’Malley-era gerrymandering, Republicans may have a chance to surprise in a district in one of the most Democratic-majority states in the country.
4. NEBRASKA’S 2ND CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT
While not typically considered a swing state, or one that gets much attention in federal elections, Nebraska’s only urban-leaning district may decide the future of the House of Representatives if the overall contest is as close as it has been in recent years.
Rep. Don Bacon, R-Neb., one of few in his party who have publicly lambasted President Donald Trump, is retiring. The district – centered in Douglas and Saunders counties, including Omaha and Ashland – already has a slew of candidates on both sides hoping to take the moderate’s seat.
Omaha City Councilman Brinker Harding leads state Sen. Brett Lindstrom, R-Omaha, in fundraising, while on the Democratic side, at least five people, including congressional staffer James Leuschen and state Sen. John Cavanaugh, D-Omaha, have tossed their hats in the ring, according to the Nebraska Examiner.
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Bacon, who hails from suburban Sarpy County, won his last race against former state Sen. Anthony Vargas, D-Omaha, by less than one percentage point.
After a recent wave of GOP losses in Florida, Pennsylvania, Virginia and New Jersey, the district shapes up as a tough hold for Republicans in a state that hasn’t elected a Democrat statewide since Ben Nelson retired in 2012.
5. NEW MEXICO GUBERNATORIAL RACE
While Nebraska is a red state that doesn’t often garner national attention, on the blue ledger lies New Mexico.
Topographically and culturally similar to red neighbor Texas and formerly red neighbor Arizona on the other side, the Land of Enchantment is often one that enchants the observer that looks closer at its politics.
Notably, its mountainous border with Mexico has largely kept it out of politically-contentious Trump-wall debates focused on the flatter, desert and river boundaries of its neighbors.
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U.S. Capitol Building at sunset on January 30, 2025. (Emma Woodhead/Fox News Digital)
While it lacks the urban population that is typical of most blue states like New York, California, New Jersey and Maryland, Republicans have been increasingly out of power there for years.
Former Sen. Pete Domenici, R-N.M., was the last such lawmaker to represent the state in the upper chamber.
He retired in 2008 and was replaced by Sen. Tom Udall, D-N.M., whose surname is the Mountain West’s equivalent of Cuomo or Casey. The Interior Department headquarters is named after Udall’s father.
Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham is term-limited. While she was preceded by a Republican, Susana Martinez, her state has been trending more toward Democratic reliability otherwise.
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Deb Haaland, a former New Mexico congresswoman who was also former President Joe Biden’s Interior secretary, is the biggest name in the Democratic field, while Greggory Hull, the longtime mayor of Rio Rancho, is such for the GOP.
Rep. Gabe Vasquez held off a challenge from predecessor Yvette Herrell in the 2nd congressional district, which spans the southwestern part of the state including Alamogordo and Las Cruces, in what was seen as the GOP’s best chance to make inroads again in the border state.
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Northeast
Mamdani disputes antisemitism definition amid blowback from Jewish community about Day 1 executive orders
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Zohran Mamdani, the newly sworn-in mayor of New York City, suggested Friday that the widely adopted definition of antisemitism from the International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance (IHRA) does not actually protect Jewish New Yorkers. The mayor spoke amid backlash over Day 1 executive orders that have angered many Jewish and civil rights groups.
The self-described democratic socialist also dismissed allegations that the timing of his executive orders, which came just hours after he was sworn in, were illustrative of what critics have argued is his record of hostility toward Israel and the Jewish community.
The new mayor’s Day 1 directives included rescinding a ban on city agencies from boycotting or divesting from Israel and ending the city’s adoption of the IHRA definition on antisemitism ushered in by the former mayor, Eric Adams.
“When we speak about the IHRA definition that you asked about, you know, protecting Jewish New Yorkers is going to be a focus of my administration, and I also know that a number, as you said, of leading Jewish organizations, have immense concerns around this definition,” Mamdani said in response to questions about his executive orders Friday afternoon in Brooklyn.
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New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani suggested Friday that the widely adopted definition of antisemitism from the International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance does not actually protect Jewish New Yorkers. (Reuters/Jeenah Moon and Jennifer Mitchell/Fox News Digital)
“What we will do is actually deliver on our commitment to protect Jewish New Yorkers in a manner that is able to actually fulfill that,” he added before moving on to another question.
When asked about the criticism regarding the speed of the executive orders aimed at rescinding protections against antisemitism in New York City, Mamdani did not directly answer the question.
“As the new mayor of a city, you have to sign a continuation of all prior executive orders or a revocation or an amendment of all of them. And, so, what we did was sign an executive order that continued every executive order that predated the moment when our former mayor was indicted, a moment when many New Yorkers lost even more faith in New York City politics and the ability of city government to actually prioritize the needs of the public,” Mamdani responded.
“And what we will now do is showcase that new era to protect each and every New Yorker and to deliver for those same New Yorkers in a manner that they have not seen under prior administrations.”
Newly sworn-in Mayor Zohran Mamdani and former New York City Mayor Eric Adams (Getty Images; AP Images)
Mamdani’s responses at Grand Army Plaza in Brooklyn came shortly after a slew of civil rights and pro-Jewish organizations doubled down on the criticism over Mamdani’s Day 1 directives affecting the Jewish community.
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“We are deeply troubled that, on his first day in office, Mayor Mamdani weakened protections to fight antisemitism,” the Anti-Defamation League’s (ADL) New York and New Jersey chapter said Friday.
The group, alongside a cohort of other New York-area Jewish groups, issued a joint statement against Mamdani’s executive orders.
“Revoking these executive orders removes key tools for addressing antisemitism, including BDS-driven efforts that seek to demonize, delegitimize and isolate the world’s only Jewish state,” the ADL added.
Zohran Mamdani has faced backlash from the Jewish community over his Day 1 executive orders affecting Jewish New Yorkers. (Andres Kudacki/Bastien Ohier/Hans Lucas via Getty Images)
In addition to Mamdani’s executive order rescinding “all executive orders issued on or after September 26, 2024,” which included the measures affecting the Jewish community, the new mayor also unveiled a second executive order on Day 1 establishing five new deputy mayor positions in his administration.
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Also Friday, Mamdani unveiled another new executive order shortly after he was sworn in to establish a new “Office of Mass Engagement,” which aims to prioritize and centralize the city government’s public comment and feedback mechanisms intended to help New Yorkers stay engaged with politics in the Big Apple.
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“There’s less traffic and more parking.”
“I only drive if I have to move something large or heavy.”
“Sometimes I skip lunch at work to make up for the driving tax.” “I visit my elderly parents less often.”
“I complain to myself every time I have to pay the fee and I’m STILL 100% in favor of it.”
“I am returning my leased car six months before the lease expires.”
One year after the start of congestion pricing, traffic jams are less severe, streets are safer, and commute times are improving for travelers from well beyond Manhattan. Though these changes aren’t noticeable to many, and others feel the tolls are a financial burden, the fees have generated hundreds of millions of dollars for public transportation projects. And it has probably contributed to rising transit ridership.
The program, which on Jan. 5, 2025, began charging most drivers $9 during peak travel times to enter Manhattan below 60th Street, has quickly left its mark.
To assess its impact, The New York Times reviewed city and state data, outside research, and the feedback of more than 600 readers with vastly different views of the toll.
Some groused about high travel costs. Others cheered for a higher toll. Many shared snapshots from their lives: quieter streets, easier parking, costlier trips to the doctor.
Many findings from a Times analysis a few months into the experiment have held up. The program so far has met nearly all of the Metropolitan Transportation Authority’s goals, although more evidence is needed on some measures. And one question remains unresolved: whether a federal judge will decisively shield the program from efforts by the Trump administration to end it.
“Despite the threats to shut it down,” Gov. Kathy Hochul said in an interview, “the cameras are still on, and business is still up, and traffic is still down. So it’s working.”
Here’s the evidence one year in:
1. Fewer vehicles
About 73,000 fewer vehicles are entering the central business district each day, a number that has added up in the first year to about 27 million fewer entries. The decline, compared with traffic trends before the toll, has been remarkably stable across the year:
Average daily entries to the central business district
All other consequences of congestion pricing flow from this one — that fewer people are choosing to enter the area by private vehicle.
“I never drive into the city anymore. I only take the subway. It’s a relief.”
Philip Zalon Brooklyn
“I’m much more aware of driving into Manhattan and avoid it unless I have to haul a lot of stuff like a car load of Girl Scout cookies.”
Jacob White Queens
By influencing that one decision, the policy can also affect commute times, transit reliability, road safety, street life and more (as we’ll get to below).
One clear sign that behaviors are changing: Every weekday, there is now a spike in vehicles entering the zone right before the toll kicks up to $9 at 5 a.m., and right after it declines to $2.25 at 9 p.m.
Personal vehicle entries into the central business district
“I’ve decided to get up earlier to get the lower price.”
Eric Nehs Manhattan
“It is exhausting to plan the trip to cross the line at 9 p.m.”
Paul S. Morrill Manhattan
2. Faster traffic
The first consequence of those fewer vehicles is that traffic is now moving faster for the drivers who remain, and for the buses that travel those same roads. And this turns out to be true inside the congestion zone, near the congestion zone, and even much farther away.
Change in vehicle speeds, 2024-25
“Taking my kid to [doctor’s] visits in 2024 was a nightmare, every time. … After congestion pricing, it’s been noticeably less aggravating.”
Josh Hadro Brooklyn
Many readers, however, told us they didn’t believe they could see the benefits; the changes aren’t always easy to perceive by the naked eye. Readers also frequently said they believed the gains from congestion pricing were more apparent in the first months of the year and had waned since. The city’s speed data generally suggests that these improvements have been sustained, although some of the largest gains were recorded in the spring.
Average vehicle speeds in the congestion zone
But for some travelers, the speed gains have been much larger, particularly those who cross through the bridge and tunnel chokepoints into and out of Manhattan:
“Traffic approaching the [Holland] tunnel has saved me 15-30 minutes on the rides back to New York and given me hours of my time back.”
Salvatore Franchino Brooklyn
“On a typical 8 a.m. commute, there is so little traffic into the [Lincoln] tunnel that it looks like a weekend.”
Lisa Davenport Weehawken, N.J.
“I haven’t used the Lincoln Tunnel all year, probably will never use it again.”
Steven Lerner Manhattan
Improvements have also been more notable for commuters who take longer-distance trips ending in the congestion zone. That’s because those 73,000 vehicles a day that are no longer entering the zone have disappeared from surrounding roads and highways, too.
Commuters from farther out are seeing accumulating benefits from all these sources: faster speeds outside the congestion zone, much faster speeds through the tunnels and bridges, and then the improvements inside Manhattan. And people who travel roads outside the congestion zone without ever entering it get some of these benefits, too.
An analysis by researchers at Stanford, Yale and Google confirmed this through the program’s first six months. Using anonymized data from trips taken with Google Maps, they found that speeds improved after congestion pricing more on roads around the region commonly traveled by drivers heading into the central business district. That’s a subtle point, but one many readers observed themselves:
“Noticeably fewer cars driving, even way out in Bensonhurst!”
Charles Haeussler Brooklyn
“Even across the river in Bergen County, I feel that we benefit.”
Michelle Carvell Englewood Cliffs, N.J.
“I supercommute weekly from Kingston by bus. Each week, my bus round trip is 30-60 minutes faster than it was before congestion pricing.”
Rob Bellinger Kingston, N.Y.
3. More transit riders
Public transit will benefit from congestion pricing as its proceeds are invested in infrastructure upgrades; in the first year, the toll is projected to raise about $550 million after accounting for expenses, $50 million more than the M.T.A. originally predicted. But transit also stands to benefit as bus speeds improve on decongested roads and as more commuters shift to transit.
On bus routes that cross through the congestion zone, speeds increased this year, in notable contrast to the rest of the city. These improvements follow years of declining bus speeds in the central business district coming out of the pandemic.
Local bus routes
Express bus routes
Change in bus speeds, 2024-2025
“The crosstown buses are faster than they used to be, even during peak commuting times.”
Marc Wieman Manhattan
“Have gratefully noticed that they’re more on-time.”
Sue Ann Todhunter Manhattan
“It has significantly improved my bus trips from N.J., cutting about 20 minutes of traffic each way.”
John Ruppert New Jersey
Paid transit ridership is up this year compared with 2024 across the subway, M.T.A. buses, Long Island Rail Road and Metro-North Railroad as transit has continued its recovery from pandemic declines. About 300,000 more people are riding the subway each day — far more than the 70,000 cars that have been taken off the road in the congestion zone. So while congestion pricing is probably contributing to rising transit ridership, it’s not the main driver of it.
All of these added transit riders do, however, help explain why congestion pricing has not dampened activity in the busiest parts of the city, as critics feared. People are still coming, just not necessarily by private car.
“I finally taught myself to use the subway. Between the tunnel toll, congestion pricing and parking, I’m saving an enormous amount of money, time and inconvenience.”
Daniel Ludwig Weehawken, N.J.
“It’s made using the bus for short trips a more appealing option.”
John Buckholz Brooklyn
In fact, overall visits to the business district aren’t down — they were up by about 2.4 percent over the previous year, according to the city’s Economic Development Corporation. And restaurant reservations on the platform OpenTable were up inside the zone as well, by the same amount as the increase citywide.
Tom Harris, the president of the Times Square Alliance, which represents 2,600 businesses, said he had initially received complaints from some businesses. But he was pleasantly surprised that they soon stopped.
“We’re thrilled we have not seen negative impacts to local businesses,” he said. “It seems like it has been absorbed.”
4. Better quality of life
These primary shifts — fewer cars, less congested roads, more transit riders — have in turn produced a number of other effects that might more broadly be thought of as changes to qualify of life. Readers described experiencing safer crosswalks, less stressful bike rides and what feels like cleaner air.
In city data, the number of complaints to 311 for vehicle noises like car honking has declined significantly inside the congestion zone, compared with the rest of Manhattan.
Change in vehicle noise complaints, 2024-25
“Sometimes it’s almost — dare I say it? — quiet.”
Daniel Scott Manhattan
“Midtown is so much quieter now.”
Melanie DuPuis Manhattan/Hudson Valley
“It turns out that mostly when people say ‘New York is noisy’ they really mean ‘cars are noisy.’”
Grant Louis Manhattan
And the perception that roads have gotten safer is also borne out by crash data. The number of people who were seriously injured in a car crash decreased citywide, but the improvement was more pronounced in the congestion relief zone.
Change in number of people seriously injured in a crash, 2024-25
“Nobody’s trying to run me over.”
Alice Baruch Manhattan
“Fewer cars honking, fewer cars running red lights, fewer cars blocking crosswalks.”
Charlie Rokosny Brooklyn
“The number of blocked crosswalks have gone down significantly!”
Samir Lavingia Manhattan
Amid these positive changes, however, other readers described distinct declines in their quality of life, often stemming from the cost of the toll. These deeply personal observations have no corresponding measures in public data. But they make clear that some of those 27 million fewer driving trips weren’t simply replaced by transit or forgone as unnecessary — they’re missed.
“Sadly Manhattan is no longer an option for many things we once enjoyed.”
Linda Fisher Queens
“Congestion pricing has made my world much smaller.”
Justine Cuccia Manhattan
“I’m more careful about choosing events to attend, so I go to fewer of them.”
Karen Hoppe Queens
“I will not use doctors in Manhattan, limiting my health care choices.”
David Pecoraro Queens
One final aim of congestion pricing — improved air quality — has the potential to benefit everyone in the region. But the data remains inconclusive so far. A recent study from researchers at Cornell found a 22 percent improvement in one air quality measure over six months. But another analysis, by the Stanford and Yale authors, found little to no effect on air quality using local community sensors and comparing New York with other cities. And the M.T.A.’s own analysis of the program’s first year found no significant change in measured concentrations of vehicle-related air pollutants.
That doesn’t mean benefits won’t become clearer with more time and data. But the open questions about air quality underscore that even one year in, even with all the evidence gathered, there are still some effects we don’t fully understand.
“As an asthmatic, I can also palpably feel improvements in the air quality.”
Rob Hult Brooklyn
“It’s allowed me to believe that perhaps America can change for the better.”
Hanna Horvath Brooklyn
“As a car owner myself, I think it’s fair that the cost of driving is now being passed from city residents onto the drivers.”
Vincent Lee The Bronx
“I don’t like the cost but I also can’t deny its effectiveness.”
Jon Keese Queens
Police are investigating a deadly shooting that occurred overnight in Boston’s Mattapan neighborhood.
Boston police said they responded to a report of a person shot in the area of 24 Stow Road in Mattapan around 12:12 a.m. on Monday.
When they arrived, officers found a vehicle parked in front of 24 Stow Road with a man inside suffering from multiple gunshot wounds. Boston EMS transported the man to a local hospital, where he later died.
No arrests have been announced.
The shooting remains under investigation, and anyone with information is being asked to call homicide detectives at 617-343-4470. Anonymous tips can be submitted by calling 1-800-494-TIPS, texting the word “TIP” to 27463 or online.
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