Northeast
Five sleeper races that could upend 2026 – from the Alleghenies to the Land of Enchantment
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As Clement Moore’s “‘Twas the Night Before Christmas” tells it, families sleep soundly as Santa approaches.
As the new year nears, several election contests may prove just as quiet – until close results suddenly come into focus. Here are five potential sleeper races to watch in 2026:
1. MISSISSIPPI’S 2ND CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT
Rep. Bennie Thompson, the top Democrat on the House Homeland Security Committee, has not often had to worry about a general election challenge since he won a special election on April 13, 1993.
Predecessor Mike Espy, who recently unsuccessfully ran for Senate in a narrow runoff with Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith, R-Miss., had resigned to accept President Bill Clinton’s appointment as Secretary of Agriculture.
Thompson’s closest race was that one – against Republican Hayes Dent – at 55% to 45%.
Since then, Thompson has never looked back, and instead made himself a nationally-recognized figure later in his tenure.
He chaired the House Select Committee on January 6 and recently went viral for calling the shooting of West Virginia National Guardsmen allegedly by an Afghan refugee an “unfortunate accident.”
Thompson’s district, spanning from Jackson west to Yazoo City and Vicksburg on the Mississippi River, is one of the poorest in the country – landing at 3rd out of 435 with a median income of $37,372, according to data published by the office of Rep. Marcy Kaptur, D-Ohio.
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Rep. Glenn Ivey (D-MD) speaks to Rep. Bennie Thompson (D-MS) at the Butler Farm Show in Butler, Pennsylvania, on Monday, July 22, 2024. (Derek Shook for Fox News Digital )
Only Rep. Hal Rogers, R-Ky., and Ritchie Torres, D-N.Y. preside over a poorer population.
Last week, an attorney and former counsel to Sen. Charles Schumer, D-N.Y., mounted a surprise primary bid against Thompson.
Evan Turnage, 33, who has been alive just about the same time Thompson has been in Congress, made the idea of fighting the region’s persistent poverty paramount to his new campaign, according to Black Press USA.
“I’ve dedicated my life to leveling the playing field so people can not only get by, but get ahead, and raise a family right here,” Turnage said, according to the outlet.
On the Republican side, retired Army captain and Vicksburg cardiothoracic surgeon Ron Eller will fight an uphill battle to unseat the winner of the Thompson-Turnage bout.
2. CONNECTICUT’S 5TH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT
Connecticut is another state that is typically not in political conversation as hosting nail-biter partisan elections.
During the Bush-Clinton years, however, the state was competitive if not outright Republican-favored.
Former Gov. John Rowland was the first in decades to be elected to more than two terms. He ended up resigning in 2004 amid the threat of impeachment over accusations contractors with the state were doing work on his vacation home.
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After he resigned, his wife famously wrote a poem critical of the media’s coverage of Rowland’s case, based on Moore’s holiday favorite and called “A Lump of Coal for All the Reporters.” Rowland’s lieutenant, Gov. M. Jodi Rell, took over and was re-elected once before retiring in 2010.
Since then, the state has been reliably Democratic – save for former Sen. Joe Lieberman changing his affiliation to independent.
In 2022, then-State Sen. George Logan – the first Black man elected to Hartford’s upper chamber – mounted a bid against Rep. Jahana Hayes and lost by less than one percentage point.
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Jahana Hayes, D-CT (left) and her 2024 GOP challenger George Logan (right). (Getty & AP )
Logan tried again in 2024, but lost by a slightly wider margin.
While Logan is not on the ballot at least yet for 2026, recent history shows Republicans could have an outside chance of ending Democrats’ full control of New England’s congressional delegation.
3. MARYLAND’S 6TH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT
Republicans have wanted to win back Maryland’s sixth congressional district ever since partisan gerrymandering was blamed for booting 20-year incumbent Rep. Roscoe Bartlett, R-Md., from office in 2012.
Bartlett, an eccentric conservative who later relocated to the West Virginia wilderness to live off-the-grid, is now 99, and was known for addressing various topics that were sometimes ignored but have received newfound attention at present, including warnings about the strength, reliability and hardening of the U.S. power grid.
Bartlett won his last reelection by 28 points but then lost by about 20 the following cycle after the rural district encompassing the entire Maryland Panhandle was adjusted to incorporate the edges of densely-populated Washington, D.C., suburbs.
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He was defeated in 2013 by then-Rep. John Delaney, a finance executive – before Delaney was replaced by Total Wine mogul David Trone, who has largely self-funded his campaigns to the tune of millions of dollars.
Trone won re-election before opting in 2024 to pursue retiring Sen. Benjamin Cardin’s, D-Md., seat – which was ultimately won by Democrat Angela Alsobrooks.
He announced this year that he would challenge Rep. April McClain-Delaney, D-Md., the wife of former Rep. John Delaney, in the district.
Meanwhile, former longtime state Del. Neil Parrott, R-Antietam, is mounting his fourth consecutive bid for the seat. McClain-Delaney beat Parrott 53-47 in 2024.
The closest that Republicans have gotten to taking back the seat since Bartlett was defeated came in 2014, when now-FBI Deputy Director Dan Bongino narrowly lost to Trone by about a point.
Bongino notably sought to nationalize the race, pulling in endorsements like Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., and rebuking Delaney as someone who could “write himself a check for a million dollars” if he needed to in order to win.
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Del. Neil Parrott, left., former Rep. Roscoe Bartlett, R-Md., right. (Tom Williams/Getty Images)
The future G-man suggested at the time he would rather knock on doors in far-flung communities like Oakland and Grantsville, where he said, “nobody seems to know who [John Delaney] is,” according to the Maryland Reporter.
Given newly-drawn, friendlier maps following litigation over O’Malley-era gerrymandering, Republicans may have a chance to surprise in a district in one of the most Democratic-majority states in the country.
4. NEBRASKA’S 2ND CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT
While not typically considered a swing state, or one that gets much attention in federal elections, Nebraska’s only urban-leaning district may decide the future of the House of Representatives if the overall contest is as close as it has been in recent years.
Rep. Don Bacon, R-Neb., one of few in his party who have publicly lambasted President Donald Trump, is retiring. The district – centered in Douglas and Saunders counties, including Omaha and Ashland – already has a slew of candidates on both sides hoping to take the moderate’s seat.
Omaha City Councilman Brinker Harding leads state Sen. Brett Lindstrom, R-Omaha, in fundraising, while on the Democratic side, at least five people, including congressional staffer James Leuschen and state Sen. John Cavanaugh, D-Omaha, have tossed their hats in the ring, according to the Nebraska Examiner.
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Bacon, who hails from suburban Sarpy County, won his last race against former state Sen. Anthony Vargas, D-Omaha, by less than one percentage point.
After a recent wave of GOP losses in Florida, Pennsylvania, Virginia and New Jersey, the district shapes up as a tough hold for Republicans in a state that hasn’t elected a Democrat statewide since Ben Nelson retired in 2012.
5. NEW MEXICO GUBERNATORIAL RACE
While Nebraska is a red state that doesn’t often garner national attention, on the blue ledger lies New Mexico.
Topographically and culturally similar to red neighbor Texas and formerly red neighbor Arizona on the other side, the Land of Enchantment is often one that enchants the observer that looks closer at its politics.
Notably, its mountainous border with Mexico has largely kept it out of politically-contentious Trump-wall debates focused on the flatter, desert and river boundaries of its neighbors.
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U.S. Capitol Building at sunset on January 30, 2025. (Emma Woodhead/Fox News Digital)
While it lacks the urban population that is typical of most blue states like New York, California, New Jersey and Maryland, Republicans have been increasingly out of power there for years.
Former Sen. Pete Domenici, R-N.M., was the last such lawmaker to represent the state in the upper chamber.
He retired in 2008 and was replaced by Sen. Tom Udall, D-N.M., whose surname is the Mountain West’s equivalent of Cuomo or Casey. The Interior Department headquarters is named after Udall’s father.
Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham is term-limited. While she was preceded by a Republican, Susana Martinez, her state has been trending more toward Democratic reliability otherwise.
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Deb Haaland, a former New Mexico congresswoman who was also former President Joe Biden’s Interior secretary, is the biggest name in the Democratic field, while Greggory Hull, the longtime mayor of Rio Rancho, is such for the GOP.
Rep. Gabe Vasquez held off a challenge from predecessor Yvette Herrell in the 2nd congressional district, which spans the southwestern part of the state including Alamogordo and Las Cruces, in what was seen as the GOP’s best chance to make inroads again in the border state.
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Maine
High bacteria advisories reported at multiple Maine swimming spots
PORTLAND (WGME) — Wednesday afternoon, Tassel Top Park officials posted on social media, reporting the beach was temporarily closed to swimming after routine testing found elevated levels of E. coli in the water.
Anna Goodnik, a visitor at the park, says she was disappointed to learn she could not swim.
“It’s a beautiful lake. I feel so sorry, it’s too bad this happened,” Goodnik said.
She says she drove from Portland to visit the park.
“Very sad because I came from Portland, I drove 40 minutes,” Goodnik said.
Goodnik says she has been coming to Tassel Top Park for 15 years and that while the park remained open, she was hoping to get in the water.
“The water is so smooth right now, I would just like to swim in it,” Goodnik said.
Raymond Town Manager Glenn Michalowski said in a statement that the Portland Water District provides weekly test results for 18 locations around Sebago Lake. Tassel Top Beach was closed for swimming because E. coli levels exceeded state water quality standards.
Michalowski said testing indicated the presence of waterfowl in the area, which can contribute to elevated bacterial levels. The statement also noted that high E. coli counts after rain events and in areas with waterfowl activity are a normal occurrence across Maine beaches and recreational water areas.
Ben Peierls, research director at the Lakes Environmental Association, says warmer water can lead to more bacterial growth.
“When water gets warmer, there’s more growth of bacteria,” Peierls said.
Peierls says E. coli can come from animals such as birds, dogs and other wildlife, or from human waste. He says this time of year can bring rain and runoff that carries contaminants into lakes.
“This time of year, there’s lot of rain and runoff materials coming into lakes, and it’s coming from sources where there may have been that fecal material, and it gets washed into lakes and it shows up in places people could be recreating,” Peierls said.
Tassel Top is not the only location reporting elevated bacteria levels. Ferry Beach in Scarborough and East End Beach in Portland also reported results above Maine’s safety threshold for enterococci in marine waters.
Town officials say Tassel Top Beach will reopen once retesting confirms the water has returned to safe levels, and residents will be notified when the closure is lifted. Swimming can resume once weekly testing confirms water quality is back within safe limits.
To check the status of all beaches in the state, click here.
Massachusetts
Reed: Fight for tax relief is far from over
When the Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court (SJC) denied voters the ability to support a popular tax cut this November, it was more than a temporary loss for residents of one of America’s most overtaxed states. Barely a generation removed from its “Taxachusetts” moniker, the Commonwealth’s competitiveness suffered a setback with long-lasting implications.
That is why even if this battle is over, the broader fight must go on.
Recent polling from the Mass Opportunity Alliance (MOA), a nonprofit advocating for state competitiveness, found that 82% of voters supported lowering the state income tax rate from 5% to 4%. Even a poll from the Boston Globe/Suffolk University released days before the SJC decision showed 66% supporting the tax cut.
Terrified by the threat to the status quo, entrenched special interests spearheaded a legal challenge not based on the merits of the tax cut or fiscal policy whatsoever. The issue was a technicality in summary of the question written by the Attorney General. As a retired SJC justice explained, “neither logic nor law” supported removing the tax cut from the ballot.
The Court’s ruling does not change the underlying issue. The same Suffolk survey showed a majority (54%) of respondents had considered leaving the state in the last year. Nearly six in ten cited taxes and high cost of living.
This trend is well underway. Following the Commonwealth’s last tax hike in 2022, roughly 30,000 more people exited Massachusetts than arrived the following year — one of the country’s highest population exoduses. The outflow took $4.2 billion dollars’ worth of taxable income with them.
It’s no mystery as to why we’re losing residents. Survey research from MOA showed high taxes were a key driver. Not coincidentally, the top two states welcoming Massachusetts expatriates, Florida and New Hampshire, both have no income tax.
By contrast, Massachusetts has the second highest effective tax rate in the country. The Commonwealth is ranked in the bottom 10 for competitiveness.
The impact of this tax burden extends far and wide. Businesses are choosing to leave or relocate elsewhere. Iconic brands like Cape Cod Potato Chips have had enough, announcing the closing of their Hyannis facility earlier this year. Even international soccer players are not safe, learning that 90 minutes of participation in this year’s World Cup can subject them to crushing Beacon Hill tax policies.
Massachusetts is not alone in the blue state exodus. Frustrated by high taxes, endless regulation and overall unaffordability, families and businesses are fleeing California, Illinois and New York for friendlier terrain.
What are the consequences of fewer residents? For starters, less people to tax. Smaller tax bases means less resources for schools, roads and public safety – investments that tax hike advocates typically claim to care about.
Smaller populations also mean less national influence. In 2010, the congressional delegation shrank from 10 to 9 members, and only narrowly avoided losing another member in 2020. It’s anyone’s guess what the end of this decade will bring, but current trends are not encouraging.
So what’s next?
Fortunately, a second common sense tax proposal remains on track for the ballot this fall. By reforming the state tax revenue limit, the initiative would put the brakes on spendthrift politicians and return money to the taxpayers who earned it.
To be clear, the court’s ruling does not excuse the role of the legislators. Their constituents were denied the right to make their voices heard. As their elected representatives, members of the Massachusetts legislature should be fighting for families struggling with high taxes and some of the highest costs in the nation.
“Affordability” cannot just be a political buzz word; it must be a governing principle.
Two hundred fifty years ago, Massachusetts started a revolution against an oppressive government that led to the founding of our nation. That spirit lives on today, and so does the need for change. That starts by continuing the fight for common sense tax relief by every available avenue to keep the Commonwealth competitive for the next 250 years and beyond.
Colin Reed is a senior advisor to the Mass Opportunity Alliance
New Hampshire
Police: Man stabbed during domestic dispute in Nashua, NH
NASHUA, N.H. — A Nashua woman was arrested after police say she stabbed her husband multiple times during a domestic dispute over trash inside their Kinsley Street apartment.
Keilin Hernandez, 25, was arrested on three counts of second‑degree assault with a deadly weapon, a Class B felony, after officers responded to a June 17 911 call that a man had been stabbed in the arm and hand, according to the Nashua Police Department.
The victim was treated at a local hospital for injuries that were not life‑threatening.
According to a complaint filed in court by police, the dispute began after the man told officers he found a cardboard box filled with trash inside a bedroom closet and confronted Hernandez about it. Hernandez gave a different account, saying the argument started over taking garbage out and escalated when the two began pushing each other.
The complaint states that the man told police that Hernandez scratched him during the struggle and later stabbed him in the left shoulder and “in the areas between his fingers” on his left hand with a kitchen knife as he tried to walk away with her phone, saying he intended to “ground” her by taking it.
Immediately after the incident, he said he left the apartment bleeding while Hernandez went to a downstairs neighbor’s unit with their 5‑year‑old son.
According to the complaint, he admitted to pushing his wife, but told police he pushed her “by the head,” not the neck, and denied choking her. He said he held Hernandez against the wall for less than five seconds.
Hernandez told police she acted after she was pushed against a wall and grabbed by the neck and chest. The complaint states that she said she scratched her husband to break free and attempted to call police. She alleged she grabbed the knife only after he twisted her arm to make her drop her phone and then followed her into the kitchen and “began to come at her.”
“Keilin stated she struck (her husband) with the knife to show him the pain he caused her from twisting her arm and grabbing her neck,” police said in the complaint.
Hernandez did not have any marks on her, according to police.
Police later searched the apartment with the couple’s consent and found a knife on the kitchen counter that matched the man’s description. Blood droplets were located throughout the residence.
Hernandez was arraigned in the 9th Circuit Nashua District Court on June 18 and no plea was entered on the three assault charges. She was ordered held without bail after a judge found probable cause that releasing her would endanger the community, according to court documents.
She is scheduled to return to court at 9 a.m. June 24.
In a press release about the incident, police asked anyone with information to contact the Nashua Crime Line at 603‑589‑1665.
Follow Aaron Curtis on X @aselahcurtis, or on Bluesky @aaronscurtis.bsky.social.
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