Connecticut’s new crime data chief was introduced Tuesday with a promise of faster analysis, greater transparency — and a report showing crime fell by 14.1% in the first three quarters of 2024, compared to the same time a year ago.
“The news today is good. Most significantly, we are continuing a long-term trend of a safer state for Connecticut residents,” said Ronnell A. Higgins, the commissioner of emergency services and public protection.
The quarterly crime analysis report is a departure for the Connecticut State Police, which is part of the larger emergency services agency under Higgins’ command. The data is fresher and more granular.
“We are doing this to drive our decision making and to provide crime data to policing leaders, community stakeholders and residents so we can make more informed decisions. Previously, statewide crime statistics were provided annually and were more than one year old once they were released. We are no longer going to release old data,” Higgins said.
Eight months ago, Higgins hired Michael Mascari, an epidemiologist and data scientist, to track and identify crime trends much as epidemiologists do with diseases, informing both the public and practitioners. He has a Ph.D. in epidemiology and a master’s in public health.
“For the first time, this agency has its own data scientist, Dr. Mike Mascari,” Higgins said.
By releasing quarterly and not just annual data, a different statistical picture of crime in Connecticut emerges, one both geared to public consumption and law-enforcement officials.
“Getting the data out there to the public quarterly will provide awareness to residents in Connecticut about emerging crime trends,” Mascari said. “Providing data to law enforcement agencies quarterly will enable these agencies to adapt to emerging trends quickly.”
In the more detailed data, there is both evidence of falling and rising crime, depending on the time frame examined. For example, in both 2023 and 2024, the number of crimes slightly rose from quarter to quarter.
In 2023, reported crimes rose from 32,362 in the first quarter to 36,816 in the second and 37,740 in the third. In 2024, there were 29,887 in the first quarter, 30,092 in the second and 31,828 in the third.
“I tried to provide a lot in that graphic,” Mascari said.
Year-over-year comparisons long have been the standards for judging crime rates, but he said showing the quarter-to-quarter changes in the same year is helpful “if you are trying to get the cadence of what’s going on this year,” he said.
Overall, the year-over-year comparisons of the first three quarters of 2023 to the same period in 2024 showed drops of 3.5% in crimes against persons, 18.4% in crimes against property, and 5.1% in crimes against society. The latter includes drug, prostitution and gambling offenses.
Other offenses tracked by the department such as disorderly conduct, driving under the influence, trespass and liquor violations increased by 1.6%.
“These preliminary numbers for the first three quarters of 2024 remind us that Connecticut remains a safe state and is getting even safer. The nearly across-the-board positive numbers are certainly good news, but this is an effort that must continue,” Higgins said.
Higgins’ team was to meet Tuesday afternoon with local enforcement to review the data. He acknowledged the use of data is hardly new, especially in larger departments.
The New York Police Department has had its “compstat” system of weekly, precinct-by-precinct reviews of data since the mid-1990s, with a goal of identifying problems and allocating resources accordingly. Mascari is giving Connecticut the ability to do a deeper analysis, Higgins said.
“He’s been able to help us swim a little bit further upstream. He worked in epidemiology, public health,” Higgins said. “We want to work on prevention. If we’re starting to see a trend, we want to prevent that trend from spreading.”
Crime data and the public perception of crime do not always align, as Higgins acknowledged.
“Every single crime has a victim or set of victims attached to it, and it’s very personal,” Higgins said. “We can talk about reductions in crime statewide. We can talk about the manner in which we’re releasing crime statistics. But at the same time, if someone doesn’t feel safe, if someone is a victim of a crime, that is their reality. And we need to be as law enforcement, we need to be responsive to what the public is feeling.”
