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War has brought the world to the brink of a food crisis

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War has brought the world to the brink of a food crisis

“It isn’t whether or not we’re going to have a meals disaster. It is how massive that disaster might be,” Holsether informed CNN Enterprise.

One other main drawback is entry to fertilizer. Important for farmers to hit their manufacturing targets for crops, it is by no means been costlier, as exports from Russia grind to a halt. Output in Europe has additionally plunged due to the surging value of pure fuel, a key ingredient in nitrogen-based fertilizers like urea.

The state of affairs is ringing alarm bells for international well being specialists. The price of corn, soybeans and vegetable oils has been leaping, too.

Agriculture ministers from the G7 nations stated Friday they “stay decided to do what is important to stop and reply to a meals disaster.”

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However fearing shortages, nations are already turning inward, which may in the end depart much less meals for these in want.

Egypt simply banned the export of wheat, flour, lentils and beans amid rising issues over meals reserves within the Arab world’s most populous state. Indonesia has additionally tightened export restrictions on palm oil, which is a element in cooking oil in addition to in cosmetics and a few packaged items like chocolate. It is the world’s prime producer of the product.

The G7 ministers known as on nations to “maintain their meals and agricultural markets open and to protect towards any unjustified restrictive measures on their exports.”

“Any additional enhance in meals value ranges and volatility in worldwide markets may threaten meals safety and vitamin at a world scale, particularly among the many most susceptible dwelling in environments of low meals safety,” they stated in a press release.

Western nations with extra entry to agriculture might be damage, too. Shoppers there have already been stung by greater costs, and the state of affairs is poised to deteriorate additional.

Russia, Ukraine and international meals provides

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Even earlier than Russia launched a conflict in Ukraine, the worldwide meals system was strained. Snarled provide chains and unpredictable climate patterns — typically the results of local weather change — had already pushed meals costs to their highest stage in a few decade. Affordability was additionally a problem after the pandemic left thousands and thousands out of labor.

The variety of individuals on the sting of famine has jumped to 44 million from 27 million in 2019, the UN’s World Meals Programme stated this month.

The battle between Russia and Ukraine, which each play essential roles within the fastidiously calibrated system of worldwide meals manufacturing, stands to make the state of affairs worse.

World wheat costs have fallen from document highs in current days, however stay elevated. They’re anticipated to remain that manner for a while, in keeping with Rabobank commodity analyst Carlos Mera.

The wheat planting season, which is about to start in Ukraine, might be disrupted by preventing. It isn’t clear there might be sufficient farmers to until the land, as individuals within the nation take up arms — or whether or not they’ll be capable of entry equipment and different important merchandise that may sometimes arrive via Black Sea ports.

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“It is anybody’s guess if Ukraine will be capable of export something for the remainder of this 12 months, or subsequent 12 months, or within the foreseeable future,” Mera stated. The nation additionally accounts for half of all exports of sunflower oil.

Getting merchandise from Russia onto the world market has additionally gotten harder, as a result of companies do not wish to threat operating afoul of sanctions or take care of the logistics of touring close to a conflict zone.

Russia and Ukraine function the breadbasket for nations within the Center East, South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa that rely on imports. Many might be hit onerous consequently.

“Any severe disruption of manufacturing and exports from these suppliers will little doubt drive up costs additional and erode meals safety for thousands and thousands of individuals,” the Agricultural Market Info System stated in a current report.

Fertilizer prices soar

The brewing disaster goes past wheat and oils. Russia, together with its ally Belarus, can also be a serious exporter of the fertilizers wanted to plant a variety of crops. However proper now, everyone seems to be shunning their inventory.

“No person needs to the touch a Russian product proper now,” stated Deepika Thapliyal, a fertilizer knowledgeable at Impartial Commodity Intelligence Providers. “When you take a look at the entire merchants, the entire consumers, they’re very scared.”

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The value of pure fuel is exacerbating the problem. Fertilizer producers exterior of Russia and Belarus want fuel to make nitrogen-based merchandise like urea, which is used when sowing crops to spice up yield and even promotes their deep-green coloration.

However Holsether, the CEO of Yara, stated prices have gotten too excessive to maintain operations operating at scale. He is unsure when European manufacturing might be at full capability once more.

“There’s a big a part of the trade that is susceptible to not with the ability to ship merchandise to the farmers, and that may have an effect on the crop yields fairly quickly,” he stated.

Farmers have the inducement proper now to pay what they should get fertilizer, since costs for his or her merchandise are going up, too. Not everybody has this feature, nonetheless. Urea has been buying and selling close to $1,000 per metric ton, about 4 occasions the value at first of 2021, in keeping with Chris Lawson, the pinnacle of fertilizers at CRU Group, a market intelligence agency.

International locations with out home fertilizer manufacturing might also battle to entry it, with large penalties for the worldwide meals system.

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“You may’t develop large fields of wheat, barley or soy with out fertilizer,” stated Johanna Mendelson Forman, a professor at American College who makes a speciality of conflict and meals. Farmers in Mexico, Colombia and Brazil are already nervous about shortages, she added.

The implications

The G7 agriculture ministers stated Friday that their nations would leverage humanitarian assist the place they will to mitigate fallout from the conflict. However they could even be hamstrung by a dearth of provides and rising costs.

“If Ukrainian fields lie fallow this 12 months, assist companies equivalent to ours might be compelled to supply new markets to compensate for the lack of a number of the world’s greatest wheat,” David Beasley, govt director of the World Meals Programme, stated in an op-ed printed within the Washington Put up this week. “Doing so will come at a vastly inflated value.”

Beasley famous that Ukrainian wheat has additionally been important to feeding populations in different nations going through battle, together with Afghanistan, Sudan and Yemen.

“The overwhelming majority of wheat is used for human consumption, and that is irreplaceable,” Rabobank’s Mera stated.

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But even developed nations will really feel the results of a meals disaster. The affordability of meals is an issue for lower-income customers in every single place, Mendelson Forman emphasised.

“We’re used to a globalized system of commerce to get every kind of sorts of meals,” she stated. “Folks will see it of their pocketbooks, and so they’ll see it within the grocery shops.”

— Mostafa Salem contributed reporting.

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Best books of 2024: Roula Khalaf, Janan Ganesh and other FT journalists pick their favourites

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Best books of 2024: Roula Khalaf, Janan Ganesh and other FT journalists pick their favourites

Roula Khalaf

Editor

The shortlisted titles for the FT and Schroders Business Book of the Year Award are, by definition, some of the most compelling reads of 2024. For readers who missed the announcement of the shortlist, I recommend every one of the six books. Since I chair the judging panel, I can’t reveal my personal favourite and we have yet to decide on the winner. Stay tuned. I do most of the reading of the longlist over the summer. My rule, however, is to read one novel before I start. My pick this year was Claire Messud’s This Strange Eventful History, an epic tale of three generations of a Franco-Algerian family. It has everything I love about a novel — sensitive character studies and the sweep of history.

Janine Gibson

FT WEEKEND EDITOR

If you are alive in 2024 you will know that X (né Twitter) is either haemorrhaging users or was the most important and influential spreader of misinformation during the US election campaign. Elon Musk, who bought the world’s 12th most popular social media platform for $44bn just two years ago, is either a delusional posting-addict in thrall to RTs or the man who won it for Donald Trump. And as one of X’s most enduring memes says, why not both? In 2024, where major newspapers do not bother to endorse their preferred candidates in public, a platform that does not officially at least consider itself media dominated another election campaign and its owner claimed victory. Let that sink in, as he likes to say. The ballad of Elon and Donald doubtless has a few more verses to go, but in Character Limit: How Elon Musk Destroyed Twitter, tech reporters Kate Conger and Ryan Mac have produced a deeply reported, revealing and slightly terrifying book that is considerably subtler than its subtitle. 

Frederick Studemann

Literary Editor

Much has been written about the chilling realities of Putin’s Russia. Yet, in a very crowded field, Patriot by Alexei Navalny is in a class of its own. This haunting autobiography ranges from vivid, often funny accounts of growing up in the lie-infested Soviet Union through the hopes of the post-communist years and on to Navalny’s emergence as the opposition leader prepared to stand up to state power for which he was hounded, imprisoned and poisoned. Unflinching, defiant and even hopeful, the book was published after Navalny’s death in unexplained circumstances earlier this year in a penal colony in the Arctic Circle. It is — to borrow the author’s own description — a shocking and extraordinary “memorial”.

On a very different note, I enjoyed Long Island by Colm Tóibín. Sequels are often best avoided. But in this follow-up to his celebrated novel Brooklyn, Tóibín elegantly brings the story back to Ireland where he unfurls a poignant tale of paths not taken and opportunities lost.

Janan Ganesh

International politics commentator

Of the great 20th-century politicians, Zhou Enlai is probably the least documented, at least in the form of English-language biographies. In Zhou Enlai, author Chen Jian plugs the hole, perhaps too exhaustively at times. Whether the long-serving Chinese premier was Mao’s accomplice, or a bridge to modern China, is teased out over more than 700 scrupulous pages.

Nilanjana Roy

FT Weekend columnist

“Friend. What a word. Most use it about those they hardly know. When it is a wondrous thing.” Hisham Matar’s profoundly moving and unsettling novel My Friends haunted my year. He writes of exile, of friendships woven from “great affection and loyalty” but also “absence and suspicion”, and you walk with him through a London filled with the whispers of writers’ ghosts, memories and betrayal. Unforgettable.

Rana Foroohar

Global Business Columnist

I’ve long thought that most of the world’s biggest problems — from climate change to rising inequality to the challenges of autocracy and oligarchy in a post-Washington Consensus world — will require more systems thinking. This is an area that is generally the wonky purview of engineers and the military, but in his very readable book The Unaccountability Machine, Dan Davies looks at how discrete problems, from bad business management to disastrous political decisions, are often a failure of faulty systems. A great way to think about our current moment.

Camilla Cavendish

Contributing editor and columnist

Not the End of the World is the most uplifting book I’ve read this year. Hannah Ritchie, lead researcher at Our World in Data, charts the progress being made on reducing global per capita carbon emissions and tells us what to stop stressing about and what to focus on. A call for action which is also an antidote to gloom.

Tim Harford

Undercover Economist

Meditations for Mortals by Oliver Burkeman contains 28 concise essays on how to live our brief lives with less anxiety and more joy. Do you rarely see friends because the prospect of a dinner party is intimidating and exhausting? Read his note on “scruffy hospitality”, cook some pasta, and enjoy your imperfect existence with some company.

Robert Shrimsley

UK chief political commentator

Clever, funny and tragic, James is the superb retelling of The Adventures of Huckleberry Finn from the perspective of the runaway slave, Jim. Percival Everett wittily but devastatingly employs the literary device of elevating a secondary character from a famous novel into the lead to flesh out both Jim and the truer horrors of American slavery. Jim is not only given a full name but a rounded personality, revealed to be an intelligent, well-read man hamming up a slave patois to comfort white owners. You do not need to have read Huck Finn to enjoy this but it is a good excuse to do so.

Alice Fishburn

OPINION EDITOR

While devouring The Garden Against Time, Olivia Laing’s beautifully told tale of literature, politics and horticulture, I started three lists: people to give it to immediately; writers to read immediately; plants to purchase immediately. Her account of the rigours of restoring a Suffolk walled garden is really a glorious meditation on what humanity’s Eden obsession tells us about ourselves.

Robin Harding

Asia Editor

An exemplar of the LitRPG (or Literary Role-Playing Game), a strange new literary sub-genre spawned by the internet, Dungeon Crawler Carl by Matt Dinniman includes an AI with a foot fetish and sentient cat called Princess Donut who sends text messages in ALL CAPS. It’s very funny and was published in print for the first time this year.

Brooke Masters

US Financial Editor

If you are a big fan of books that tie together narratives across time, Elif Shafak has written a great one. There Are Rivers in the Sky uses rainfall to link the stories of the last great Assyrian king, a 19th-century Dickensian waif turned pillaging archeologist, a Yazidi refugee from the 2014 Iraqi purge and a modern-day London hydrologist.

Henry Mance

Chief features writer

The best royal memoir of recent years is Prince Harry’s Spare (seriously). Yet I was also moved by A Very Private School, an account by Charles Spencer, Harry’s uncle, of an English boarding school in the 1970s. The education was excellent, but the teachers were abusive and the separation from his parents amounted to “an amputation”. The book made me reflect on the damage done to generations of posh kids, including today many from overseas.

John Burn-Murdoch

Chief Data Reporter

With rightwing populism on the march on both sides of the Atlantic, Vicente Valentim’s The Normalization of the Radical Right presents a striking argument: that what has changed in the past decade is not the rise of reactionary views, but the breakdown of norms that kept these always-dormant views suppressed. This book more than any other has changed how I think about the seismic political and social shifts of recent years, and what might reverse them.

Enuma Okoro

Life & Arts columnist

All Fours, is a funny, quirky and fantastically mischievous and necessary novel by Miranda July. I was not always sympathetic to the main character, “a semi-famous artist” but I loved the provocative questions about how women in mid-life might consider and boldly renegotiate what they want, what they desire and what they allow themselves to create.

Tell us what you think

What are your favourites from this list — and what books have we missed? Tell us in the comments below

Anne-Sylvaine Chassany

Companies Editor

With Houris, a brutal and poignant account of the Algerian civil war, Kamel Daoud has this year become the first author from the former French colony to win the Prix Goncourt. But France’s top literary prize has come at a high personal cost: Daoud has had to flee the country, where he risks criminal charges for daring to tackle the subject.

Madhumita Murgia

Artificial Intelligence Editor

Samantha Harvey’s diminutive and dreamy Orbital, which won this year’s Booker Prize for fiction, couldn’t have felt more otherworldly when I read it in a rustic Tuscan farmhouse this past summer. This luminous novel about the lives of six astronauts as they orbit the Earth in a spacecraft is a series of snapshots of the bonds that form in strange circumstances, the joys and sorrows of being human, and a love letter to our unique planet.

Gillian Tett

Columnist and member of the editorial board

Little unites the right and left today — except, perhaps, a sense of despair about the quality of information. The right rails against the allegedly liberal bias of the “mainstream media”; the left accuses the right of deliberately unleashing mass disinformation. So, is the answer to seek more information? Nexus, Yuval Noah Harari’s thoughtful book, suggests not. He argues that more knowledge alone will not solve our problems, since so much rests on the social and political channels that it passes through. Not everyone will like Harari’s grandiose approach, and his conclusions about AI are unnerving. But it is an important perspective at a time when the info-wars seem likely to only get worse.

Books of the Year 2024

All this week, FT writers and critics share their favourites. Some highlights are:

Monday: Business by Andrew Hill
Tuesday: Environment by Pilita Clark
Wednesday: Economics by Martin Wolf
Thursday: Fiction by Laura Battle
Friday: Politics by Gideon Rachman
Saturday: FT Critics’ choice

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Trump announces picks for FDA, CDC; Novartis seeks bolt-on deals, raises guidance; RFK Jr., Elon Musk may find banning ads difficult; and more

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Trump announces picks for FDA, CDC; Novartis seeks bolt-on deals, raises guidance; RFK Jr., Elon Musk may find banning ads difficult; and more
President-elect Donald Trump announced leadership picks for health agencies: Marty Makary for FDA, Dave Weldon for CDC, and Janette Nesheiwat for surgeon general. Novartis raised sales guidance and acquired Kate Therapeutics for $1.1B. Amgen named Howard Chang as new CSO. Merck’s subcutaneous Keytruda passed Phase 3 testing.
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Donald Trump picks Scott Bessent as Treasury secretary

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Donald Trump picks Scott Bessent as Treasury secretary

Donald Trump has picked Scott Bessent to be his US Treasury secretary, nominating one of his biggest financial backers as the top economic official of his second administration.

Bessent will be responsible for overseeing the president-elect’s most prominent economic pledges, including sweeping tax cuts, while maintaining the stability of the world’s largest economy, its most important bond market as well as the dollar.

The hedge fund manager’s economic philosophy seeks to bridge traditional free-market conservatism with Trump’s populism. He has defended the president-elect’s repeated threat of raising tariffs against accusations that they would upend relations with US allies and raise consumer prices, saying they are a trade negotiating tool and a way to raise government revenue.

In a statement on Friday, Trump described Bessent as “one of the world’s foremost international investors and geopolitical and economic strategists”, who was “widely respected”.

“He will help me usher in a new golden age for the United States, as we fortify our position as the world’s leading economy, centre of innovation and entrepreneurialism, destination for capital, while always, and without question, maintaining the US dollar as the reserve currency of the world.”

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Trump added that with Bessent at the helm, his administration “will reinvigorate the private sector, and help curb the unsustainable path of federal debt”.

Bessent will also be responsible for steering the administration’s sanctions policy, including on Russia over its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, as well as the rules that govern Wall Street. His appointment will need to be confirmed by the US Senate, which will be controlled 53-47 by Republicans next year.

Trump on Friday evening also selected Russell Vought to once again lead the Office of Management and Budget. “Russ knows exactly how to dismantle the Deep State and end Weaponized Government, and he will help us return Self Governance to the People,” Trump wrote. The president-elect also picked Lori Chavez-DeRemer, a Republican Congresswoman from Oregon, to be his labour secretary.

Wall Street bankers across the political spectrum were digesting the news of Bessent’s appointment. They pointed out that a lot would depend on how much independence he would have to manage the economy. 

A dealmaker at a large bank said Bessent had a strong pedigree managing complex financial situations but was concerned that he would be a “puppet” of Trump.

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“Bessent is a very skilled investor, he has a great track record over decades but I fear he won’t have much autonomy,” the dealmaker said.

The 62-year-old Bessent is a Wall Street veteran who has been among Trump’s most vocal advocates and closest economic advisers in recent months.

It will be his first government position. He currently runs the hedge fund Key Square Capital Management. Bessent previously worked closely with billionaires George Soros and Stanley Druckenmiller.

Trump also went with a Treasury secretary who had Wall Street experience during his first term, when former Goldman Sachs banker Steven Mnuchin held the post.

“There’s nobody with a better understanding of markets [than Bessent] to manage $36tn in debt, who’s a vocal advocate of the president-elect’s economic agenda, and has the stature around the world to navigate the global economic challenges we need to confront,” said Michael Faulkender, a finance professor at the University of Maryland’s Smith School of Business and chief economist at the Trump-aligned America First Policy Institute.

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A top corporate lawyer and longtime Democratic donor said that Trump’s decision was encouraging. “[It is a] sensible choice that will reassure the financial community. The Treasury functioned well under Mnuchin and I would expect Bessent to provide similar stability,” the lawyer said.

Apollo Global Management chief executive Marc Rowan and former Federal Reserve governor Kevin Warsh were candidates for the Treasury role, travelling to Mar-a-Lago this week for interviews with Trump. So was Howard Lutnick, Cantor Fitzgerald’s chief executive, who is also co-chair of the Trump transition team. John Paulson, another billionaire hedge fund manager, had also been in the running before dropping out.

In a statement on Friday, Paulson called Bessent an “outstanding pick”.

“He has the market experience and financial acumen to successfully implement President Trump’s economic agenda.”

The nomination of Bessent, who is seen as a pragmatic pick, is among the most important of Trump’s cabinet picks and follows a number of controversial appointments, including Fox News host Pete Hegseth for defence and vaccine-sceptic Robert F Kennedy Jr as health secretary. The president-elect had also nominated former Florida congressman Matt Gaetz to run the justice department, but he withdrew his name from consideration for the role.

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Bessent, a Yale University graduate who grew up in South Carolina, will take the helm of a US economy that is on solid footing. After the worst cost of living crisis in decades, inflation has steadily declined following a period of high interest rates. Unemployment remains historically low at 4.1 per cent, keeping consumer spending strong.

Many economists have warned that Trump’s protectionist economic plans, and his pledge to deport millions of immigrants and slash taxes, could reignite inflation and dent growth — criticism that Bessent has strongly rejected.

In an interview with the Financial Times in October, Bessent framed tariffs as a “maximalist” threat that could be pared back during talks with trading partners. He also denied that the Trump administration would devalue the dollar.

“My general view is that at the end of the day, he’s a free trader,” Bessent told the FT, referring to Trump. “It’s escalate to de-escalate.”

But Bessent has floated more unorthodox ideas, including taking steps that would infringe on the long-standing independence of the Fed.

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Speaking to rightwing ideologue and Trump ally Steve Bannon recently, he also floated cutting government spending by $1tn over the next decade.

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