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Want to know November's election outcome? Washington's primary may be a crystal ball

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Want to know November's election outcome? Washington's primary may be a crystal ball

In this file photo, a person drops off a ballot at a drop box during the presidential primary election on Tuesday, March 12 in Seattle. Washington state is reliably Democratic in its voting, but its late summer top-two primary has predictive power for how the nation feels about the two main political parties.

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The mantra “past performance is no guarantee of future results” applies to many things, including trying to predict election results ahead of time. But how many voters in a deep blue state showed up in this month’s primary – and how they voted – may provide insight into the political environment in November.

Election data analysts point to Washington state’s primary results as a useful barometer of which party is likely to win the national popular vote for the House of Representatives and to what degree.

Here’s how to do it: add up the total votes for Democrats and Republicans in Washington’s 10 House district primaries. Then, take the difference between them and subtract 12 to get a rough estimate of the predicted House margin in November.

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An NPR analysis of the Washington primary using this framework estimates that Democrats could win the national popular vote by about 4 points, which is slightly more than the 2020 presidential election that saw them narrowly win the White House and control of both chambers of Congress.

In other words, it will likely be yet another close race.

This year, Democrats won about 57.3% of the Congressional primary vote to Republicans’ 41.3%, or a margin of 16%. Subtract 12 percentage points, and you get that estimate of a 4% popular vote victory for Democrats later this year.

Current presidential polling averages have Vice President Harris leading former President Donald Trump by about 3% heading into the Democratic National Convention, and the most recent NPR/PBS News/Marist poll also found Harris up by 3%, suggesting a similar national environment could be waiting in November.

In recent elections, the framework has also hinted at the direction of public sentiment ahead of the general elections, like the 2022 midterms. Democrats finished with a 10.4% margin in Washington’s primary election, a down year that suggested Republicans were favored by about 1.6%, closer to the final national popular vote advantage of about 2.8% for the GOP in the House.

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In 2020, a 14% primary margin suggested a 2% popular vote victory for Democrats, which ended up being closer to 3%. 2018’s “blue wave” that saw Democrats win the House popular vote with a roughly 8.5% margin was foreshadowed by Washington’s primary that saw a 20.4 % Democratic margin across its Congressional seats.

Why Washington state?

J. Miles Coleman, Associate Editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at University of Virginia Center for Politics, says Washington’s predictive power is driven by a few unique factors.

“One, the primary is open to all voters, and two, it occurs relatively late in the primary season,” he said. “Down-ballot primaries in other states usually begin in March, so it almost has a feel of being a ‘dress rehearsal’ for the fall election.”

Unlike many other primaries, Washington’s election sees all candidates from all parties on the same ballot, with the top two vote-getters proceeding to the general election. There are often more candidates and more ideological options for voters to express their preferences under the umbrella of the two major parties.

“This, combined with the very high turnout we see in this election – not quite at the level of a general election, but far better than most primaries – makes it much more representative,” Lakshya Jain, CEO of the elections modeling website Split Ticket, said. “It’s also a state that’s roughly as white as the nation is and just a few points more educated, meaning that it’s at least somewhat representative of the overall electorate.”

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Jain said the Washington primary indicates an election cycle that is definitely driven by Democratic enthusiasm, but not to the degree of “blue wave” election years like 2018.

“The fact that Democrats are substantially outperforming their 2022 numbers bodes very well for them, especially given that they almost kept the House that year,” he added. “I will say that basically everything that’s been going on of late seems good for them — polling has surged in their direction, and the primary results and specials broadly all seem good for them.”

That said, the Washington primary shorthand should not be used as absolute gospel to be applied equally because there are 435 House races, 33 Senate races and 50 state-level presidential elections that all have their own quirks and local electorates that change how useful the estimate may be.

There are only a small handful of competitive House, Senate and presidential battlegrounds, so increased Democratic turnout and enthusiasm in noncompetitive races could lead to a higher national popular vote victory without winning those races, for example.

Coleman added that a third presidential election cycle that has been dominated by Trump means low-propensity voters that support him and no other candidate are another group to watch for as well.

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“While there are some promising signs for Democrats, the Washington primary being one of them, to me, one X-factor lingering over the election is the question of how many of those voters Trump will bring out.”

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Waymo called the cops on teen riders, raising privacy concerns

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Waymo called the cops on teen riders, raising privacy concerns

A Waymo robotaxi drives in San Francisco’s North Beach neighborhood this week.

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Police in San Mateo, Calif., posted Monday on social media that they had apprehended a pair of teenagers from a Waymo driverless robotaxi after the company alerted authorities to suspected criminal activity. It’s the latest incident involving video surveillance of passengers and others by autonomous vehicles — raising questions about the limits of privacy in such vehicles.

The Facebook post by the San Mateo County Police said: “Parents do you know where your teens are? @waymo does!”

The 15-year-olds were allegedly drinking alcohol and shooting toy guns from the car, according to the police. They said Waymo’s systems detected behavior that then triggered a safety response, after which the company disabled the vehicle and contacted police.

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Waymo’s cars, equipped with an array of cameras, microphones and other sensors to monitor passengers and other nearby vehicles, are becoming more common in cities across the United States. Experts say the detention of the two teens in San Mateo highlights a potential — but not inevitable — trade-off between privacy and convenience. It also questions the extent to which companies similar to Waymo are required to hand over private data, including audio and video of passengers, in situations where a crime is suspected.

NPR reached out to Waymo, which is owned by Alphabet, the parent company of Google, for comment on the details of the San Mateo incident and how the company responded, but did not hear back. But on its website, the company says that as many as 29 cameras in its autonomous cars provide an all-around view and “are designed with high dynamic range and thermal stability, to see in both daylight and low-light conditions, and tackle more complex environments.”

“There already exist laws that govern duty to report or even duty to protect” for carriers such as Waymo, according to Alessandro Acquisti, a professor of information technology at the MIT Sloan School of Management. “The privacy problems arise when and if driverless carrier companies used such laws or ethical obligations as a pretext for blanket, indiscriminate accumulation of identifiable data for unspecified future purposes.”

That includes not just monitoring people inside the cars, but outside too. Take, for example, a hit-and-run investigation last year in Los Angeles. Media reported that the police inquiry was aided by video captured by a Waymo taxi that had a clear view of the crime. Critics suggested at the time that authorities were using the company’s vehicles as a mobile surveillance platform. And during 2025 protests in Los Angeles against Immigration and Customs Enforcement crackdowns, demonstrators vandalized Waymos, apparently angry that video recorded by the vehicles could be used by police, although there is no evidence that happened.

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Trump fires last members of election commission, inciting fears of midterm ‘chaos’

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Trump fires last members of election commission, inciting fears of midterm ‘chaos’

Donald Trump has terminated the remaining members of the independent, federal commission that assists election administration officials nationwide just a few months before the midterm elections, multiple outlets reported Thursday.

The remaining three commissioners of the four-member bipartisan commission ⁠were forced out on Thursday in different ways. The one Republican appointee resigned and the other ⁠two, Democratic appointees were notified of their terminations via email from ​the White House presidential personnel office.

“On ‌behalf of President ‌Donald J Trump, I am writing to inform you that your position ‌as Commissioner of the Election Assistance Commission is terminated, effective immediately. Thank you for your service,” the email, seen by Reuters, said.

The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

The Election Assistance Commission serves as a “national clearinghouse of information on election ‌administration”, accredits testing laboratories and certifies voting systems, and maintains the national mail-voter registration form developed by the National ​Voter Registration Act of 1993, according to the commission’s website. The terminations follow Trump and top administration officials’ advocacy to change vote-by-mail requirements and investigations into the 2020 election outcome, which Trump lost to Democrat Joe Biden.

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“It is ⁠irresponsible and dangerous that this Administration remains dead set on ​causing chaos for ​our election officials across this ​country,” Arizona secretary of state Adrian Fontes said in a ​Thursday statement. “This ‌move undermines the integrity ​of nonpartisan ​election administration.”

The 2002 law that established the commission, the Help America Vote Act, states the president can appoint replacements to the commission.

It is unclear how Trump will move ahead with the commission.

Reuters contributed reporting

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Former Olympian pleads not guilty in reflecting pool vandalism charges

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Former Olympian pleads not guilty in reflecting pool vandalism charges

Former U.S. Olympian David Hearn (left) walks with his attorney Norman Eisen to speak to reporters and protesters gathered after his arraignment at the Superior Court of the District of Columbia in Washington, D.C. on Thursday.

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Former U.S. Olympic canoeist David Hearn pleaded not guilty to damaging the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool in D.C. Superior Court Thursday morning.

Federal prosecutors charged Hearn with a single count of destruction of property causing more than $1,000 in damage to the pool.

Hearn has previously claimed, which his attorneys repeated during a short press conference outside the court, that he simply touched the water in the pool out of curiosity.

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The Trump administration had just completed a $14 million renovation of the pool.

But shortly after the work finished, peeling paint and algae gathered in the water. The remodel has been largely criticized as a massive failure and waste of taxpayer dollars.

Superior Court Judge Carmen McLean released Hearn on his own recognizance. His next hearing is scheduled for Aug. 5.

Norm Eisen, one of Hearn’s attorneys, spoke to reporters outside of court following the hearing. He said the administration is using Hearn as a “scapegoat … for their own failures.”

“It is not a crime to touch the reflecting pool, to touch water in the United States of America,” he said.

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Prosecutors say there is a host of evidence against Hearn.

This is a developing story.

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