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Ukraine’s bonds jump as investors bet Trump will end war

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Ukraine’s bonds jump as investors bet Trump will end war

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Ukraine’s sovereign bonds have surged in price as investors bet that the incoming US administration will push for a quick end to the war with Russia.

The dollar-denominated bonds have risen 12 per cent in the past month, in expectation that the re-election of Donald Trump will lead to a ceasefire and boost Ukraine’s capacity to repay creditors.

The jump in the price of Ukrainian bonds, which one investor in the country called “the unlikeliest Trump trade ever”, comes as bets relating to the new administration have swept global financial markets in recent weeks.

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Trump has said he will end the war in Ukraine “within a day” of returning to the White House, though he has not offered specifics on how this would be achieved.

The rally has come just over two months after Kyiv completed a restructuring of more than $20bn of debt in one of the fastest and biggest sovereign debt workouts in modern history.

Bond investors are betting that the country will be prepared to accept a peace deal that involves permanently giving up territory it has lost in the war, and that its economy will recover quickly in the years ahead.

“The main part of the trade has really been based on the war ending, or at least the possibility of Trump pushing through the start of negotiations,” said Thys Louw, portfolio manager at Ninety One, which owns some Ukrainian bonds.

Among investors to own significant holdings of Ukrainian debt is fund manager BlackRock, which was a member of the bondholder committee that led the restructuring talks. BlackRock declined to comment.

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Ukrainian debt has outperformed emerging market indices since mid-October, when markets began to price in a Trump election victory.

Ukraine’s bond maturing in 2036 has risen from 44 to 49 cents on the dollar over the past month. So-called “GDP warrants” — debt securities issued under an older debt restructuring that will benefit from the country’s return of growth — having climbed even more sharply.

A bond owed by Ukrenergo, Ukraine’s state grid operator, has rallied more than 160 per cent this year to 67 cents on the dollar, despite renewed Russian attacks on infrastructure.

London-based hedge fund firm Shiprock Capital has profited from the jump in the warrants and Ukrainian corporate debt and is up 31 per cent this year to the end of October, according to an investor letter seen by the Financial Times.

Shiprock did not respond to a request for comment.

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During the early stages of the war, bondholders agreed to a halt on Kyiv’s interest payments. The September restructuring, which is designed to pave the way for Ukraine’s return to bond markets, ended the two-year freeze.

Under the September deal, investors agreed to take losses of more than a third on their bonds to help Ukraine control its surging wartime deficits — years before official creditors such as the UK, the US, Germany and Japan are set to restructure their own debts.

In return for agreeing to accept upfront losses, bondholders were also given the chance to receive higher payouts if Ukraine’s war-ravaged economy beats growth targets in the years ahead.

Some investors have cautioned that the outlook for Ukraine’s bonds is far from clear.

Mohammed Elmi, a portfolio manager at Federated Hermes, said he was sceptical of the market’s belief in Trump’s ability to secure a rapid peace deal.

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“I don’t fully subscribe to that kind of bullish view,” he said. “There is still a significant amount of unanswered questions” about where a settlement would leave Ukraine’s postwar economy and whether it would be a priority for the new US administration.

“Trump has a lot to do, with a big policy agenda to go through. These negotiations could also be quite prolonged,” he said.

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Top Drug Regulator Is Fired From the F.D.A.

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Top Drug Regulator Is Fired From the F.D.A.

Dr. Tracy Beth Hoeg, the Food and Drug Administration’s top drug regulator, said she was fired from the agency Friday after she declined to resign.

She said she did not know who had ordered her firing or why, nor whether Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. knew of her fate. The Department of Health and Human Services did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

The departure reflected the upheaval at the F.D.A., days after the resignation of Dr. Marty Makary, the agency commissioner. Dr. Makary had become a lightning rod for critics of the agency’s decisions to reject applications for rare disease drugs and to delay a report meant to supply damaging evidence about the abortion drug mifepristone. He also spent months before his departure pushing back on the White House’s requests for him to approve more flavored vapes, the reason he ultimately cited for leaving.

Dr. Hoeg’s hiring had startled public health leaders who were familiar with her track record as a vaccine skeptic, and she played a leading role in some of the agency’s most divisive efforts during her tenure. She worked on a report that purportedly linked the deaths of children and young adults to Covid vaccines, a dossier the agency has not released publicly. She was also the co-author of a document describing Mr. Kennedy’s decision to pare the recommendations for 17 childhood vaccines down to 11.

But in an interview on Friday, Dr. Hoeg said she “stuck with the science.”

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“I am incredibly proud of the work we were doing,” Dr. Hoeg said, adding, “I’m glad that we didn’t give in to any pressures to approve drugs when it wasn’t appropriate.”

As the director of the agency’s Center for Drug Evaluation and Research, she was a political appointee in a role that had been previously occupied by career officials. An epidemiologist who was trained in the United States and Denmark, she worked on efforts to analyze drug safety and on a panel to discuss the use of serotonin reuptake inhibitors, the most widely prescribed class of antidepressants, during pregnancy. She also worked on efforts to reduce animal testing and was the agency’s liaison to an influential vaccine committee.

She made sure that her teams approved drugs only when the risk-benefit balance was favorable, she said.

The firing worsens the leadership vacuum at the F.D.A. and other agencies, with temporary leaders filling the role of commissioner, food chief and the head of the biologics center, which oversees vaccines and gene therapies. The roles of surgeon general and director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention are also unfilled.

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Supreme Court is death knell for Virginia’s Democratic-friendly congressional maps

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Supreme Court is death knell for Virginia’s Democratic-friendly congressional maps

The U.S. Supreme Court

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The U.S. Supreme Court refused Friday to allow Virginia to use a new congressional map that favored Democrats in all but one of the state’s U.S. House seats. The map was a key part of Democrats’ effort to counter the Republican redistricting wave set off by President Trump.

The new map was drawn by Democrats and approved by Virginia voters in an April referendum. But on May 8, the Supreme Court of Virginia in a 4-to-3 vote declared the referendum, and by extension the new map, null and void because lawmakers failed to follow the proper procedures to get the issue on the ballot, violating the state constitution.

Virginia Democrats and the state’s attorney general then appealed to the U.S. Supreme Court, seeking to put into effect the map approved by the voters, which yields four more likely Democratic congressional seats. In their emergency application, they argued the Virginia Supreme Court was “deeply mistaken” in its decision on “critical issues of federal law with profound practical importance to the Nation.” Further, they asserted the decision “overrode the will of the people” by ordering Virginia to “conduct its election with the congressional districts that the people rejected.”

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Republican legislators countered that it would be improper for the U.S. Supreme Court to wade into a purely state law controversy — especially since the Democrats had not raised any federal claims in the lower court.

Ultimately, the U.S. Supreme Court sided with Republicans without explanation leaving in place the state court ruling that voided the Democratic-friendly maps.

The court’s decision not to intervene was its latest in emergency requests for intervention on redistricting issues. In December, the high court OK’d Texas using a gerrymandered map that could help the GOP win five more seats in the U.S. House. In February, the court allowed California to use a voter-approved, Democratic-friendly map, adopted to offset Texas’s map. Then in March, the U.S. Supreme Court blocked the redrawing of a New York map expected to flip a Republican congressional district Democratic.

And perhaps most importantly, in April, the high court ruled that a Louisiana congressional map was a racial gerrymander and must be redrawn. That decision immediately set off a flurry of redistricting efforts, particularly in the South, where Republican legislators immediately began redrawing congressional maps to eliminate long established majority Black and Hispanic districts.

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Explosion at Lumber Mill in Searsmont, Maine, Draws Large Emergency Response

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Explosion at Lumber Mill in Searsmont, Maine, Draws Large Emergency Response

An explosion and fire drew a large emergency response on Friday to a lumber mill in the Midcoast region of Maine, officials said.

The State Police and fire marshal’s investigators responded to Robbins Lumber in Searsmont, about 72 miles northeast of Portland, said Shannon Moss, a spokeswoman for the Maine Department of Public Safety.

Mike Larrivee, the director of the Waldo County Regional Communications Center, said the number of victims was unknown, cautioning that “the information we’re getting from the scene is very vague.”

“We’ve sent every resource in the county to that area, plus surrounding counties,” he said.

Footage from the scene shared by WABI-TV showed flames burning through the roof of a large structure as heavy, dark smoke billowed skyward.

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The Associated Press reported that at least five people were injured, and that county officials were considering the incident a “mass casualty event.”

Catherine Robbins-Halsted, an owner and vice president at Robbins Lumber, told reporters at the scene that all of the company’s employees had been accounted for.

Gov. Janet T. Mills of Maine said on social media that she had been briefed on the situation and urged people to avoid the area.

“I ask Maine people to join me in keeping all those affected in their thoughts,” she said.

Representative Jared Golden, Democrat of Maine, said on social media that he was aware of the fire and explosion.

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“As my team and I seek out more information, I am praying for the safety and well-being of first responders and everyone else on-site,” he said.

This is a developing story. Check back for updates.

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