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UK remains only G7 economy to languish below pre-pandemic levels

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UK remains only G7 economy to languish below pre-pandemic levels

Vital revisions to UK information point out that Britain is the one G7 financial system that is still smaller than it was earlier than the pandemic, regardless of an improved efficiency within the second quarter that diminished fears of recession.

Workplace for Nationwide Statistics figures launched on Friday confirmed that UK gross home product for the three months to June this 12 months remained 0.2 per cent under the extent it reached within the closing quarter of 2019.

Beforehand, official information had indicated that GDP had risen 0.6 per cent above pre-pandemic ranges by June.

Against this with the UK’s failure to return to pre-pandemic ranges, the eurozone financial system reached 1.8 per cent above 2019 ranges within the second quarter. The US had recovered to pre-pandemic ranges by the beginning of final 12 months.

Friday’s UK progress downgrade was largely as a result of a decrease ONS estimate of 2020 output. Nonetheless, progress for 2021 and this 12 months was revised greater.

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The ONS now says the financial system grew 0.2 per cent between the primary and the second quarters of 2022.

This compares with its earlier estimate of a 0.1 per cent contraction for the interval — an enchancment that can allay fears that the UK financial system is already sliding into recession. The change was pushed by a greater than anticipated efficiency {of professional} and monetary providers.

The information counsel the UK financial system entered the price of dwelling disaster earlier than it had managed to completely get well from the pandemic, laying naked the problem going through Britain’s new prime minister, Liz Truss.

In a reference to the tax reduce and borrowing plans of Kwasi Kwarteng, Paul Dales, chief UK economist at Capital Economics, mentioned the information “makes the chancellor’s fiscal plans look much more untenable”.

Kwarteng’s announcement final week of £45bn of debt-funded tax cuts triggered turmoil within the sterling and gilts markets, pushing the Financial institution of England to take emergency motion to keep away from a meltdown within the UK pensions sector. With the federal government’s deliberate tax cuts forecast to maintain inflation greater for longer, markets at the moment are pricing in considerably greater rates of interest by mid-next 12 months.

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“The general image is that the financial system is in worse form than we beforehand thought even earlier than the total drag from the surge in inflation and leap in borrowing prices have been felt,” Dales mentioned.

Bar chart of UK, real GDP percentage change, Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2019 to Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2022 showing The UK is the only G7 economy to not have yet recovered to pre-coronavirus levels of real GDP

Samuel Tombs, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, mentioned the figures will compel the Workplace for Finances Duty, the UK fiscal watchdog, to revise down additional its estimates for future potential GDP. They might additionally imply that the tax-to-GDP ratio will probably be barely greater than beforehand estimated.

“The harm inflicted to the financial system’s provide aspect by Covid and Brexit is even bigger than beforehand thought,” Tombs mentioned.

Some particulars within the information launch additionally revealed that households have been damage by excessive inflation. Actual family disposable revenue fell 1.2 per cent within the second quarter, the biggest of the 4 successive drops as fast-rising costs diminished the worth of wages.

The family saving ratio fell to 7.6 per cent, from 8.3 per cent within the earlier quarter and from 26.8 per cent at its peak within the second quarter of 2020, when the nation was in a stringent lockdown. That is nonetheless above pre-pandemic ranges, suggesting households have scope to soak up some future revenue shocks.

Grant Fitzner, ONS chief economist, mentioned: “These new figures embrace extra correct estimates of the monetary sector and the way the prices going through the well being sector modified all through the pandemic.”

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US government bonds drop as worries over Donald Trump’s tax bill flare up

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US government bonds drop as worries over Donald Trump’s tax bill flare up

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US government bonds and stocks fell after a weak Treasury auction highlighted investor unease over the country’s rising debt burden, as Donald Trump attempts to push sweeping tax cuts through Congress.

The 30-year Treasury yield was up 0.11 percentage points to 5.096 per cent in afternoon trading, the highest level since late 2023, as the price of the bonds fell. Wednesday’s move added to a multi-day rise in longer-dated Treasuries. The S&P 500 share index fell 1.6 per cent.

The fresh bout of selling came as Republican leadership in Congress held intense talks to advance Trump’s tax legislation to a vote in the House. Trump’s proposal, which he has called a “big, beautiful bill”, is forecast by independent analysts to add at least $3tn to US debt over the next decade.

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House Speaker Mike Johnson said early on Wednesday that he was hopeful he could bring the bill to a vote in the chamber after striking an agreement with party holdouts over state tax deductions. But the deal drew a backlash from fiscal conservatives, who have lobbied for steeper cuts to spending on healthcare programmes and clean-energy tax credits.

The White House invited the far-right Freedom Caucus to hear their concerns on Wednesday afternoon and dispatched National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett to meet with other Republicans at the Capitol.

The talks come just days after Moody’s stripped the US of its pristine triple A credit rating on concerns over rising debt and deficits.

In a sign of those concerns, the US drew weak demand in a $16bn auction for 20-year Treasuries on Wednesday. The country sold the debt with a 5 per cent coupon, the highest interest rate for 20-year bonds at auction since the maturity was reintroduced in 2020.

Primary dealers — banks that are obliged to sop up any bonds not absorbed by others investors — purchased 16.9 per cent of the offering, compared with an average of 15.1 per cent, according to BMO Capital Markets.

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“We had a soft 20-year auction and when combined with the focus on the budget deficit, the market has a bias towards higher yields,” said Ian Lyngen, head of US rates strategy at BMO Capital Markets.

“Markets really have no appetite for duration here,” added Pooja Kumra, a rates strategist at TD Securities, referring to longer-dated securities.

“Especially in the case of the US, we expect all long-end auctions to be highly scrutinised by markets,” Kumra said, citing the budget bill.

One hedge fund manager who asked not to be named described Wednesday’s Treasury auction as “nasty”.

In equities markets, more than nine in 10 of the S&P 500’s member stocks were negative on the day. The financials, real estate and healthcare sectors were the benchmark index’s worst performers.

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Compounding the decline was a sell-off in Big Tech stocks, after ChatGPT maker OpenAI said it had agreed to buy former Apple design chief Sir Jony Ive’s hardware start-up io for $6.4bn. The acquisition extends OpenAI’s bet on alternatives to smartphones.

News of the deal emerged around the same time as the results of the weak Treasury auction. Shares in Apple were down more than 2 per cent, Amazon, Nvidia and Microsoft all fell more than 1 per cent. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was down 1.4 per cent.

The dollar index, tracking the US currency against a basket of peers, was down 0.6 per cent.

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A Jan 6 rioter convicted of assaulting police scored a visit to the White House

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A Jan 6 rioter convicted of assaulting police scored a visit to the White House

Shane Jenkins, seen here in police bodycam footage from Jan. 6, 2021, was convicted of multiple charges in connection with the Capitol riot, including assaulting police. Months after receiving a pardon from President Trump, Jenkins visited the White House along with another former Jan. 6 defendant.

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Just months after being freed through a pardon from President Trump, two men convicted of felonies for their roles in the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol scored visits to the secure grounds of the White House.

During their visit, the men took turns posing for pictures and videos behind the lectern in the White House press briefing room.

“Thank you so much President Trump, if you’re seeing this, we appreciate you setting us free,” said Shane Jenkins, in a video he posted on social media.

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Jenkins, who had a criminal record before Jan. 6, was sentenced to seven years in prison for assaulting police protecting the Capitol and using a metal tomahawk to try to smash a window. The day after the attack, Jenkins wrote in a text message, “I have murder in my heart and my head.”

“Never would have thought in only a few short months I would be going from the big house to the White House,” said another pardoned Jan. 6 defendant, Dominic Box, who also recorded a video from the briefing room.

Dominic Box appeared exuberant as he recorded videos for social media in the White House press briefing room this month. Box was convicted of felony civil disorder and other nonviolent misdemeanors in connection with the Jan. 6, 2021 breach of the U.S. Capitol. His case was dismissed by the Justice Department before he was sentenced.

Dominic Box appeared exuberant as he recorded videos for social media in the White House press briefing room this month. Box was convicted of felony civil disorder and other nonviolent misdemeanors in connection with Jan. 6. His case was dismissed by the Justice Department before he was sentenced.

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Box was convicted of felony civil disorder and nonviolent misdemeanor charges related to the Capitol breach. He had not yet been sentenced when Trump returned to office and issued mass clemency to all Jan. 6 defendants, including the most violent offenders. Separately, in 2023, Box was arrested in Florida on a DUI charge. According to the police report, while in the back of the squad car, Box used “various racial slurs,” including the n-word. In a message to NPR, Box said , “I am not racist,” and noted that he did not use “the hard r” when he said the n-word.

The circumstances of the visit to the White House were somewhat murky.

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“An individual within the Trump Administration extended the invitation,” Box told NPR, “but I am not at liberty to disclose their identity.”

In a message to NPR, Jenkins said he was also “not at liberty to discuss” how the tour was arranged, adding, “but of course J6 Hostages were wronged and will be welcomed to the White House.”

The two men said that, in addition to the press briefing room, they saw the Oval Office and the Roosevelt Room, though they did not post any videos or photos of those areas.

The White House did not respond to NPR’s messages seeking comment.

Since taking office, Trump has continued to embrace Jan. 6 defendants as “political prisoners.”

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“I pardoned J6 people who were assaulted by our government,” Trump told reporters in February. The Department of Justice estimated that 140 police officers were injured in the attack.

The Trump administration is also currently negotiating a settlement in a wrongful death lawsuit filed by the estate of Ashli Babbitt, the rioter who was shot and killed by a Capitol police officer while trying to climb through a broken window.

Capitol Police Chief Thomas Manger condemned the news of the pending settlement.

“I am extremely disappointed and disagree with this settlement,” Manger said in a written statement. “In 2021, the DOJ investigation determined no wrongdoing by police. This settlement sends a chilling message to law enforcement nationwide, especially to those with a protective mission like ours.”

Enrique Tarrio, the former leader of the far-right extremist group the Proud Boys, also said he briefly met with Trump while visiting the president’s Mar-a-Lago resort earlier this month. Tarrio was convicted of seditious conspiracy for his role in the Jan. 6 attack and sentenced to 22 years in prison.

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According to Tarrio, Trump called him over while he was dining at the resort.

“I thanked him for giving me my life back,” Tarrio wrote on social media. “He replied with…I Love You guys.”

There is no indication that Jenkins or Box met with Trump when they visited White House. (Trump spent most of the day at his golf club in Virginia, according to his public schedule.) Both men have declined to disclose the precise details of their visit.

“Thank you to our friend, who shall go unnamed, for giving us that opportunity,” Box said on a video live stream.

The visit occurred on a Sunday – outside of the regular public tour schedule, which typically runs from Tuesday through Saturday, according to the White House website. In a break with the Biden administration, the Trump White House has stopped releasing visitor logs.

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Jenkins, who also had a criminal record before Jan. 6, posed for photos and videos behind the lectern in the White House press briefing room. Just months earlier, he was serving a seven-year prison sentence for his actions during the Capitol riot.

Jenkins, who also had a criminal record before Jan. 6, smiled and posed for photos and videos behind the lectern in the White House press briefing room. Months earlier, he was serving a seven-year prison sentence for his actions during the Capitol riot.

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Jenkins’ appearance at the White House was especially striking given his convictions for assaulting police on Jan. 6, and his extensive criminal record, which stretches back to the late 1990s.

“I was in and out of prison from 23 on,” Jenkins said at his sentencing hearing.

Prosecutors said Jenkins assaulted police officers on Jan. 6 using nine different objects, including “a flagpole, a metal walking stick, and a broken wooden pole with a spear-like point on one end which he launched like a javelin.” At his trial, prosecutors pointed out his large neck tattoo reading “MAMA TRIED.”

In his defense, Jenkins’ lawyer said he was a victim of “the poisonous propaganda of a former president.”

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“[Trump] cares nothing about his supporters, nor anyone else,” defense attorney Dennis Boyle said in closing arguments. “To him they’re just cannonfodders [sic] to serve his needs and his needs alone.”

Jenkins told NPR he disagrees with his lawyer’s remarks. He maintains that he did not injure any police officers on Jan. 6, and said his actions were justified.

“We were standing not for Trump but in opposition to a stolen election,” Jenkins said in a message. “It was my duty as a citizen to object. In the process we were assaulted and responded in kind.”

“I’m thankful no one was hurt by what I did but am I sorry, f[***] no!” he wrote.

Jenkins’ legal troubles began long before Jan. 6. According to court documents filed by the Department of Justice, he had prior convictions for assault, resisting arrest, drug possession, making a “terroristic threat” and driving while intoxicated.

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When he was 20 years old, Jenkins shot and killed his stepfather. At his sentencing, he testified that he acted in self defense and murder charges against him were ultimately dropped.

Like Jenkins, Box has also faced criminal charges unrelated to Jan. 6.

In Aug. 2023, while awaiting trial for his Capitol riot case, Box was arrested in Florida for driving under the influence. According to the police report, a witness saw Box back into a pole and pass out. When officers arrived, they found Box slurring his speech, along with an open can of Natural Light beer and a bottle of Skol vodka in the car.

NPR asked Box about the allegation that he used “various racial slurs” after the arrest.

“At one point, in an admittedly & regrettably intoxicated state after being woken up while in the back of the squad car I said, ‘what’s up n[****]?’” Box wrote. “I am not a racist, have dated women of all racial backgrounds & the majority of my friends in both Jacksonville & Savannah are black.”

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Following the DUI arrest, Box was jailed for violating the terms of his pretrial supervision orders in the Jan. 6 case. He later pleaded no contest to the Florida DUI charge, and said he is “actively working a program of recovery” from substance abuse.

In a statement to NPR, the Secret Service said it followed standard protocol when they allowed Jenkins and Box to enter the White House.

“Mr. Jenkins and Mr. Box were subject to a rigorous security screening prior to their entry being approved,” the agency wrote. “In all cases, the U.S. Secret Service works in conjunction with White House staff to review pertinent visitor information and develop plans to ensure a safe and secure visit for all.”

“Secret Service knew who we were and they were cool,” Box said in a livestream video. “They weren’t looking at us like we were suspicious.”

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Nvidia chief Jensen Huang says US chip curbs on China ‘a failure’

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Nvidia chief Jensen Huang says US chip curbs on China ‘a failure’

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Nvidia chief Jensen Huang has condemned US export controls designed to limit China’s access to artificial intelligence chips as “a failure” that spurred Chinese rivals to accelerate development of their own products.

In strongly worded criticisms of chip policies pursued by successive US administrations, the chief executive of the world’s leading AI chipmaker also criticised Washington’s decision to ban an Nvidia chip designed specifically for the Chinese market.

He told a news conference at the Computex tech show in Taipei on Wednesday that export controls had turbocharged Chinese rivals, led by tech giant Huawei, to build competitive AI hardware. 

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“Four years ago, Nvidia had 95 per cent market share in China. Today, it is only 50 per cent,” he said. “The rest is Chinese technology. They have a lot of local technology they would use if they didn’t have Nvidia.”

Huang added: “Chinese AI researchers will use their own chips. They will use the second best. Local companies are very determined and export controls gave them the spirit and government support accelerated their development. Our competition is intense in China.”

The Trump administration in April banned Nvidia from selling the H20, its watered-down AI chip tailored to align with former export controls, prompting a $5.5bn writedown by the company. Huang reiterated that Nvidia had no current plans to roll out another “Hopper” chip for the China market, saying the company had already “degraded the chip so severely”. 

This is a developing story

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