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Trump gets edge over Biden nationally and across battlegrounds after debate as Democrats’ turnout in question — CBS News poll
The race for president has shifted in Donald Trump’s direction following the first 2024 presidential debate. Trump now has a 3-point edge over President Biden across the battleground states collectively, and a 2-point edge nationally.
A big factor here is motivation, not just persuasion: Democrats are not as likely as Republicans to say they will “definitely” vote now.
Perhaps befitting a race with two well-known candidates and a heavily partisan electorate, over 90% of both Mr. Biden’s and Trump’s supporters say they would never even consider the other candidate, as was the case before the debate, which helps explain why the race has been fairly stable for months. Recall that Mr. Biden had gained a bit back in June, after Trump was convicted of felonies in New York, but that didn’t dramatically alter the race either.
That said, the preference contest today does imply an Electoral College advantage for Trump.
Meanwhile, half of Mr. Biden’s 2020 voters don’t think he should be running this year — and when they don’t think so, they are less likely to say they’ll turn out in 2024, and also more likely to pick someone else, either Trump or a third-party candidate.
Trump, for his part, finds most Republicans feeling bolstered after the debate, saying it made them more likely to vote. And independents remain tightly contested, with Trump narrowly edging up with them now.
Nationwide, Republicans are more likely than Democrats to say they will definitely turn out in 2024. And Republicans currently have a similarly sized turnout advantage across the battleground states, undergirding Trump’s edge with likely voters there.
When Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Jill Stein and Cornel West are included in a national ballot test, Trump’s national edge over Mr. Biden expands to four points. Kennedy draws roughly equally from both candidates, but Mr. Biden cedes a little more to Stein and West, bringing down his overall percentage.
For many voters, both candidates’ ages are a factor, not just Mr. Biden’s. When people see an equivalence there, Mr. Biden benefits: he leads Trump among those who say both.
The trouble for Mr. Biden is that he trails badly among those for whom only his age is a factor.
Immediately following the debate, CBS News’ polling showed increasing numbers of voters believing Mr. Biden did not have the cognitive health for the job and that he should not be running. A large seven in 10 still say he should not be running. (It’s three points fewer now than immediately after the debate, perhaps because the Biden campaign pushed back on the idea, but remains the dominant view among voters, and of a sizable four-in-10 share of Democrats.)
Mr. Biden did not gain any ground on Trump on a number of personal qualities: Trump leads Mr. Biden on being seen as competent, tough, and focused. The president continues to be seen as more compassionate.
CBS News considers the battlegrounds as the states most likely to decide the election in the Electoral College: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
This CBS News/YouGov survey was conducted with a representative sample of 2,826 registered voters nationwide interviewed between June 28-July 2, 2024. The sample was weighted by gender, age, race, and education, based on the U.S. Census American Community Survey and Current Population Survey, as well as past vote. The margin of error for registered voters is ±2.3 points. Battlegrounds are AZ GA MI NC NV PA WI.
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The New Harvard Trend? Getting Punched in the Face.
Her opponent at the Babson fight night was her Harvard teammate Muskaan Sandhu, 18, a freshman, who had sparred before. No one likes getting hit, Ms. Sandhu said, but she liked learning that she could take a punch.
It made her feel she could do anything. “After the fight, I never felt so capable in my life,” she said.
Modern life — lived on screens or amid the constant distraction of screens — can feel isolating. She sees boxing as a way to engage with people. “You feel really human,” she said. “You feel a connection with the person you’re fighting. Like we’re in this together.”
Mr. Lake said he intended for Harvard’s club to join the National Collegiate Boxing Association, a nonprofit that provides structure and safety rules. The N.C.B.A. represents about 840 athletes, an 18 percent increase from a year ago, said the group’s president, George Chamberlain, who coaches the University of Iowa’s boxing club.
The well-attended fight night at Babson, which also included boxers from Brandeis University, reflected the growing interest.
Before it began, a volunteer passed out waiver documents. Most of the boxers immediately flipped to the end and signed. Mr. Jiang, of Harvard, appeared to be the only one who read it.
He was a mixed martial arts fan who resolved to try a combat sport in college. “I like the technique side of it,” Mr. Jiang said of boxing, “the science behind the sport.”
His fight plan, he explained, was to control the action with his jab and occasionally throw the right hand, to maintain good defense and try to tire out his opponent.
It seemed a solid strategy — though, as the heavyweight Mike Tyson famously noted, everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face.
News
Frontier Airlines plane hits person on runway during takeoff at Denver airport
A Frontier Airlines plane hit a person on the runway of Denver’s international airport during takeoff, sparking an engine fire and forcing passengers to evacuate, authorities said.
The plane, headed to Los Angeles, “reported striking a pedestrian during takeoff” at about 11.19pm on Friday, the Denver airport’s official X account wrote.
Neither the airport nor the airline has disclosed the person’s condition.
“We’re stopping on the runway,” the pilot of the plane involved told the control tower at one point, according to the site ATC.com. “We just hit somebody. We have an engine fire.”
The pilot told the air traffic controller they have “231 souls” on board – and that an “individual was walking across the runway”.
The air traffic controller responded that they were “rolling the trucks now” before the pilot told the tower they “have smoke in the aircraft”.
“We are going to evacuate on the runway,” the pilot added.
Frontier Airlines said in a statement that flight 4345 was the one involved in the collision – and that “smoke was reported in the cabin and the pilots aborted takeoff”. It was not clear whether the smoke was linked to the crash with the person.
The plane, an Airbus A321, “was carrying 224 passengers and seven crew members”, the airline said. “We are investigating this incident and gathering more information in coordination with the airport and other safety authorities.”
Passengers were then evacuated using slides, and the emergency crew bused them to the terminal.
Denver’s airport said the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) had been notified and that runway 17L – where the incident took place – will remain closed while an investigation is conducted.
Friday’s episode at Denver’s airport came one day after a Delta Airline employee died on Thursday night at Orlando’s international airport when a vehicle struck a jet bridge next to an airplane with passengers onboard, as the local news outlet WESH reported.
Meanwhile, on 3 May, a United Airlines plane arriving in Newark, New Jersey, from Venice, Italy, clipped a delivery truck and a light pole, which in turn struck a Jeep. Only the delivery truck driver was injured, but the plane was damaged extensively and the NTSB classified the case as an accident while also opening an investigation.
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Video: How Trump Is Prioritizing White People as Refugees
new video loaded: How Trump Is Prioritizing White People as Refugees
By Zolan Kanno-Youngs, Gilad Thaler, Stephanie Swart, Jon Miller and Whitney Shefte
May 8, 2026
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