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The cyber warfare predicted in Ukraine may be yet to come

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The cyber warfare predicted in Ukraine may be yet to come

The author is former head of the US Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Safety Company and the co-founder and companion of the Krebs Stamos Group

Within the build-up to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the nationwide safety neighborhood braced for a marketing campaign combining army fight, disinformation, digital warfare and cyber assaults. Vladimir Putin would deploy devastating cyber operations, the pondering went, to disable authorities and demanding infrastructure, blind Ukrainian surveillance capabilities and restrict traces of communications to assist invading forces. However that’s not the way it has performed out. At the least, not but.

There have been some modest cyber assaults forward of the invasion, together with web site defacements on Ukrainian authorities and monetary companies in January, and comparable follow-on operations in February. Satellite tv for pc broadband supplier Viasat was hit with an assault that disrupted industrial and industrial operations all through Europe, although that occasion has not been tied to Russia but. After all, that’s our evaluation proper now: the fog of warfare, mixed with the truth that many Ukrainian companies are shuttered , means there are fairly seemingly extra we don’t learn about.

We additionally must be life like in regards to the position of cyber assaults — they don’t seem to be in the identical league because the instruments of standard warfare. To place it bluntly, when your loved ones is being gunned down, does it actually matter should you can’t examine your e mail? As a substitute, cyber operations are extra ideally suited to the “greyzone” — the sector of battle under the edge of bombs and bullets — the place tactical targets are usually not solely about disrupting companies, but in addition about intimidation, distraction, and confusion. 

The long run think-tank monographs and warfare faculty lectures which is able to inevitably unpick Moscow’s technique are prone to give attention to the shocking lack of cyber assaults in Putin’s invasion plan. Theories vary from the Russians not attempting all that tough on the offensive cyber entrance, to the concept that they did — however that Ukrainian and western defenders proved too formidable.

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In truth, there are a number of elements which might clarify why Moscow’s confirmed cyber capabilities took a again seat within the total technique. For one, it appears the Kremlin saved battle-planning to a small group which will have excluded the Russian safety companies’ cyber personnel. Profitable cyber operations require cautious planning, focusing on and improvement, typically taking months if not years. As a substitute, it appears the groups could have needed to scramble present community entry and assault instruments to suit the battle plan. 

There’s additionally the matter of necessity. Intercepted transmissions level to Russian forces utilizing radio handsets and Ukrainian telecommunications networks to co-ordinate actions and replace commanders again in Russia. On this situation, Moscow would preserve networks operational for their very own use. If the Kremlin thought Ukrainians would fold within the face of a lightning strike on the capital, then they might have wished to take care of important infrastructure companies for once they moved in.

However the warfare isn’t over, not by an extended shot. The Ukrainians proceed to punch again militarily with gorgeous effectiveness, whereas additionally dominating the data battle. Western unity in opposition to Putin’s tyranny proven within the devastating sanctions, mixed with worldwide companies self-sanctioning their Russian operations, has wrecked the financial system and minimize off important companies and provides. The preliminary financial outlook for Russia is grim, not only for the following few weeks and even months, however presumably for years.

The hazard is that as political and financial situations deteriorate, the crimson traces and escalation judgments that saved Moscow’s most potent cyber capabilities in examine could modify. Western sanctions and deadly help assist to Ukraine could immediate Russian hackers to lash out in opposition to the west, sending a transparent message: “knock it off, we will make this a lot worse for you”. Russian ransomware actors can also benefit from the state of affairs, presumably resorting to cyber crime as one of many few technique of income technology.

Let’s not neglect that within the final decade, Putin’s henchmen have poisoned dissidents each at residence and overseas, interfered in dozens of democratic elections, created havoc with offensive cyber assaults reminiscent of NotPetya and undermined the very idea of fact and belief. A wounded bear can nonetheless lash out, inflicting nice hurt for so long as it attracts breath. 

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Mitigating this danger means we want decisive motion. Authorities offensive cyber groups should proceed to disrupt Russian assaults, whereas quickly sharing info with business on Moscow’s intent and capabilities. We should settle for, nevertheless, that stopping all assaults shouldn’t be life like. Trade executives ought to recognise they’ve an obligation to make themselves tougher targets so the federal government can give attention to supporting Ukraine, fairly than placing out fires again residence.

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Surge in Chinese listings drives boom for US small-cap IPO market

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Surge in Chinese listings drives boom for US small-cap IPO market

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The volatile market for small US initial public offerings is “booming” thanks to a surge of Chinese listings on New York’s Nasdaq as companies race to beat a rule change that blocks the smallest deals.

The surge in listings kicked off late last year with 42 small offerings in the last three months of 2024, followed by 41 in the first quarter of this year — the two busiest quarters in records back 15 years, according to equity capital markets group Capital Markets Gateway (CMG). This was up from 20 in the second quarter of 2024 and 29 in the third.

Fifty-three of the past two quarter’s listings were from China and Hong Kong, with only 18 from the US, and all but nine on Nasdaq. CMG’s data excludes special purpose acquisition vehicles, which raise money in order to take over a private business.

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“The microcap IPO market is booming,” said Matthew Kennedy, a senior strategist at Renaissance Capital, citing small Chinese companies in sectors from pharmaceuticals to construction. “It’s a highly speculative area,” he said, with many investors losing out because most of the stocks eventually fall far below their initial offer price.

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The IPOs came ahead of a raft of policy changes enacted by Nasdaq, effective as of April 11, which include requiring companies listing on its lowest rung under certain standards to raise at least $15mn. The Securities and Exchange Commission said Nasdaq’s new rules would “promote fair and orderly markets” and “protect investors and the public interest”.

Daniel McClory, head of equity capital markets and China at US underwriter Boustead Securities, said he had “30 IPOs in process right now and more than a third are for [companies in] south-east Asia and Greater China”.

The market for large-cap listings has meanwhile disappointed hopes of a revival under Donald Trump. Waves of market volatility around the president’s tariff announcements led bankers to postpone several hotly anticipated tech IPOs while other large listings received a cool reception.

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This has not stopped a flurry of sub-$50mn deals since tariffs shook markets in April. Small IPOs have continued despite Nasdaq raising the bar last month — with eight further deals since the rule change.

“Explosive returns” from companies such as Hong Kong-based Diginex, an ESG data group, and Chinese group EPWK Holdings, a crowdsourcing platform, “can fuel interest from traders hoping for quick gains”, said Kennedy.

Line chart of Share price, $ showing Shares in EPWK surged in late April but collapsed in early May

Shares in Diginex have climbed 1,375 per cent since it listed in January. Last Tuesday, it said UAE royal Sheikh Mohammed bin Sultan bin Hamdan Al Nahyan had struck a $300mn deal giving him the right to buy 6.75mn of its shares before the end of the year.

EPWK had risen 470 per cent in the months after its February market debut, but plunged 75 per cent last Monday.

The market for these small offerings is dominated by amateur traders, who are often more willing to jump on perceived bargains in the stock market during times of disruption when big money managers stay away.

The US Financial Industry Regulatory Authority in 2023 warned investors about “unusual price increases on the day of or shortly after the IPOs of certain small-cap issuers, most of which involve issuers with operations outside the US” and “IPOs raising less than $25mn”.

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The average value of money raised in the small IPOs tracked by CMG in the six months to March was around $9mn.

Brokers say there could be more small IPOs if market conditions improve. “If the market settled down and co-operated we could do an IPO a week,” McClory said. “As it is, we’re targeting about one a month.”

The two most prolific underwriters in the space — Dominari Securities and RF Lafferty — have each taken seven companies public this year, including Chinese “machine vision” company Lianhe Sowell and Hong Kong hotpot chain MasterBeef.

RF Lafferty is headquartered in the Trump Building in New York’s Financial District. Dominari Securities, which acted as lead underwriter for Diginex’s IPO, is a subsidiary of Dominari Holdings, a fintech group based about four miles north in Trump Tower. 

Shares in Dominari Holdings rose 580 per cent in the six weeks before a February 11 filing revealing that the president’s sons Donald Trump Jr and Eric Trump had joined its advisory board, the Financial Times reported last month.

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Dominari and RF Lafferty did not respond to requests for comment.

The rush of smaller Chinese IPOs comes as concerns swirl among some investors over whether Trump will delist some Chinese stocks from US exchanges amid trade tensions with Beijing.

One banker at a small US broker said some Chinese companies listing in the US recently had “inverted their corporate structure” to obscure where they carry out the bulk of their business. He said that Chinese companies with an overseas subsidiary were converting their operating company into the parent company “to sanitise the Chinese nature of the listing”.

A bar chart of counts of microcap IPOs by country of headquarters, 2023-25

McClory said he expected that any Trump ban would probably target large state-owned enterprises and sensitive industries rather than small companies. He dismissed concerns that Chinese IPOs in the US were taking investment dollars that would otherwise benefit US entrepreneurs.

“Virtually all of these Asian IPOs were full of investors from Greater China, or Chinese-American investors in the US and outside of China,” he said. “It’s not like they come to the US and take money from American widows and orphans.”

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Chiefs superfan 'ChiefsAholic' sentenced to 32 years in Oklahoma prison

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Chiefs superfan 'ChiefsAholic' sentenced to 32 years in Oklahoma prison

A Kansas City Chiefs fan, ChiefsAholic, poses for photos while walking toward Empower Field at Mile High before an NFL football game between the Denver Broncos and the Chiefs,on Jan. 8, 2022, in Denver.

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David Zalubowski/AP

TULSA, Okla. — A Kansas City Chiefs superfan known as “ChiefsAholic” was sentenced Monday in an Oklahoma courtroom to serve 32 years in state prison for robbing a Tulsa-area bank, a sentence that will be carried out after he finishes serving time in federal prison.

Xaviar Babudar, 30, appeared in a Tulsa courtroom and apologized to the court and to the victims of the December 2022 robbery of the Tulsa Teachers Credit Union in Bixby, Oklahoma, said Babudar’s attorney, Jay-Michael Swab.

“He expressed sincere remorse and took full responsibility for his actions,” Swab said.

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Babudar already was serving more than 17 years in federal prison for a string of 11 bank robberies across seven states where he stole nearly $850,000 to finance his social media stardom. Swab said the robberies also were the result of a gambling addiction.

Tulsa County District Attorney Steve Kunzweiler had sought life in prison for Babudar.

“He is a serial robber who traumatized these victims and numerous other victims across this country,” Kunzweiler said in a statement.

Tulsa County District Judge Michelle Keely ordered Babudar’s 32-year sentence to run concurrently to his federal sentence, which means after he is released from federal prison he will be transferred to state custody to serve his remaining 14 years.

Babudar developed a following on his @ChiefsAholic account on the social platform X after attending games dressed as a wolf in Chiefs gear. His avid support of the Chiefs became well known on social media.

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Why Trump Suddenly Declared Victory Over the Houthi Militia

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Why Trump Suddenly Declared Victory Over the Houthi Militia

When he approved a campaign to reopen shipping in the Red Sea by bombing the Houthi militant group into submission, President Trump wanted to see results within 30 days of the initial strikes two months ago.

By Day 31, Mr. Trump, ever leery of drawn-out military entanglements in the Middle East, demanded a progress report, according to administration officials.

But the results were not there. The United States had not even established air superiority over the Houthis. Instead, what was emerging after 30 days of a stepped-up campaign against the Yemeni group was another expensive but inconclusive American military engagement in the region.

The Houthis shot down several American MQ-9 Reaper drones and continued to fire at naval ships in the Red Sea, including an American aircraft carrier. And the U.S. strikes burned through weapons and munitions at a rate of about $1 billion in the first month alone.

It did not help that two $67 million F/A-18 Super Hornets from America’s flagship aircraft carrier tasked with conducting strikes against the Houthis accidentally tumbled off the carrier into the sea.

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By then, Mr. Trump had had enough.

Steve Witkoff, his Middle East envoy, who was already in Omani-mediated nuclear talks with Iran, reported that Omani officials had suggested what could be a perfect offramp for Mr. Trump on the separate issue of the Houthis, according to American and Arab officials. The United States would halt the bombing campaign and the militia would no longer target American ships in the Red Sea, but without any agreement to stop disrupting shipping that the group deemed helpful to Israel.

U.S. Central Command officials received a sudden order from the White House on May 5 to “pause” offensive operations.

Announcing the cessation of hostilities, the president sounded almost admiring about the militant Islamist group, despite vowing earlier that it would be “completely annihilated.”

“We hit them very hard and they had a great ability to withstand punishment,” Mr. Trump said. “You could say there was a lot of bravery there.” He added that “they gave us their word that they wouldn’t be shooting at ships anymore, and we honor that.”

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Whether that proves to be true remains to be seen. The Houthis fired a ballistic missile at Israel on Friday, triggering air raid sirens that drove people off beaches in Tel Aviv. The missile was intercepted by Israeli air defenses.

The sudden declaration of victory over the Houthis demonstrates how some members of the president’s national security team underestimated a group known for its resilience. Gen. Michael E. Kurilla, the head of Central Command, had pressed for a forceful campaign, which the defense secretary and the national security adviser initially supported, according to several officials with knowledge of the discussions. But the Houthis reinforced many of their bunkers and weapons depots throughout the intense bombing.

Significantly, the men also misjudged their boss’s tolerance for military conflict in the region, which he is visiting this week, with stops in Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. Mr. Trump has never bought into long-running military entanglements in the Middle East, and spent his first term trying to bring troops home from Syria, Afghanistan and Iraq.

What’s more, Mr. Trump’s new chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Dan Caine, was concerned that an extended campaign against the Houthis would drain military resources away from the Asia-Pacific region. His predecessor, Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr., shared that view before he was fired in February.

By May 5, Mr. Trump was ready to move on, according to interviews with more than a dozen current and former officials with knowledge of the discussions in the president’s national security circle. They spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe the internal discussions.

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“We honor their commitment and their word,” Mr. Trump said in remarks at the White House on Wednesday.

A White House spokeswoman, Anna Kelly, said in a statement to The New York Times that “President Trump successfully delivered a cease-fire, which is another good deal for America and our security.” She added that the U.S. military had carried out more than 1,100 strikes, killing hundreds of Houthi fighters and destroying their weapons and equipment.

The chief Pentagon spokesman, Sean Parnell, said the operation was always meant to be limited. “Every aspect of the campaign was coordinated at the highest levels of civilian and military leadership,” he said in an emailed statement.

A former senior official familiar with the conversations about Yemen defended Michael Waltz, Mr. Trump’s former national security adviser, saying he took a coordinating role and was not pushing for any policy beyond wanting to see the president’s goal fulfilled.

General Kurilla had been gunning for the Houthis since November 2023, when the group began attacking ships passing through the Red Sea as a way to target Israel for its invasion of Gaza.

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But President Joseph R. Biden Jr. thought that engaging the Houthis in a forceful campaign would elevate their status on the global stage. Instead, he authorized more limited strikes against the group. But that failed to stop the Houthis.

Now General Kurilla had a new commander in chief.

He proposed an eight- to 10-month campaign in which Air Force and Navy warplanes would take out Houthi air defense systems. Then, he said, U.S. forces would mount targeted assassinations modeled on Israel’s recent operation against Hezbollah, three U.S. officials said.

Saudi officials backed General Kurilla’s plan and provided a target list of 12 Houthi senior leaders whose deaths, they said, would cripple the movement. But the United Arab Emirates, another powerful U.S. ally in the region, was not so sure. The Houthis had weathered years of bombings by the Saudis and the Emiratis.

By early March, Mr. Trump had signed off on part of General Kurilla’s plan — airstrikes against Houthi air defense systems and strikes against the group’s leaders. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth named the campaign Operation Rough Rider.

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At some point, General Kurilla’s eight- to 10-month campaign was given just 30 days to show results.

In those first 30 days, the Houthis shot down seven American MQ-9 drones (around $30 million each), hampering Central Command’s ability to track and strike the militant group. Several American F-16s and an F-35 fighter jet were nearly struck by Houthi air defenses, making real the possibility of American casualties, multiple U.S. officials said.

That possibility became reality when two pilots and a flight deck crew member were injured in the two episodes involving the F/A-18 Super Hornets, which fell into the Red Sea from the aircraft carrier Harry S. Truman within 10 days of each other.

Meanwhile, several members of Mr. Trump’s national security team were battling disclosures that Mr. Hegseth had endangered the lives of U.S. pilots by putting operational plans about the strikes in a chat on the Signal app. Mr. Waltz had started the chat and inadvertently included a journalist.

American strikes had hit more than 1,000 targets, including multiple command and control facilities, air defense systems, advanced weapons manufacturing facilities and advanced weapons storage locations, the Pentagon reported. In addition, more than a dozen senior Houthi leaders had been killed, the military said.

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But the cost of the operation was staggering. The Pentagon had deployed two aircraft carriers, additional B-2 bombers and fighter jets, as well as Patriot and THAAD air defenses, to the Middle East, officials acknowledged privately. By the end of the first 30 days of the campaign, the cost had exceeded $1 billion, the officials said.

So many precision munitions were being used, especially advanced long-range ones, that some Pentagon contingency planners were growing increasingly concerned about overall stocks and the implications for any situation in which the United States might have to ward off an attempted invasion of Taiwan by China.

And through it all, the Houthis were still shooting at vessels and drones, fortifying their bunkers and moving weapons stockpiles underground.

The White House began pressing Central Command for metrics of success in the campaign. The command responded by providing data showing the number of munitions dropped. The intelligence community said that there was “some degradation” of Houthi capability, but argued that the group could easily reconstitute, officials said.

Senior national security officials considered two pathways. They could ramp up operations for up to another month and then conduct “freedom of navigation” exercises in the Red Sea using two carrier groups, the Carl Vinson and the Truman. If the Houthis did not fire on the ships, the Trump administration would declare victory.

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Or, officials said, the campaign could be extended to give Yemeni government forces time to restart a drive to push the Houthis out of the capital and key ports.

In late April, Mr. Hegseth organized a video call with Saudi and Emirati officials and senior officials from the State Department and the White House in an effort to come up with a sustainable way forward and an achievable state for the campaign that they could present to the president.

The group was not able to reach a consensus, U.S. officials said.

Now joining the discussions on the Houthi operation was General Caine, Mr. Trump’s new Joint Chiefs chairman, who was skeptical of an extended campaign. General Caine, aides said, was concerned about supply of assets he thought were needed for the Pacific region.

Also skeptical of a longer campaign were Vice President JD Vance; the director of national intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard; Secretary of State Marco Rubio; and Mr. Trump’s chief of staff, Susie Wiles. Mr. Hegseth, people with knowledge of the discussions said, went back and forth, arguing both sides.

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But Mr. Trump had become the most important skeptic.

On April 28, the Truman was forced to make a hard turn at sea to avoid incoming Houthi fire, several U.S. officials said. The move contributed to the loss of one of the Super Hornets, which was being towed at the time and fell overboard. That same day, dozens of people were killed in a U.S. attack that hit a migrant facility controlled by the Houthis, according to the group and aid officials.

Then on May 4, a Houthi ballistic missile evaded Israel’s aerial defenses and struck near Ben-Gurion International Airport outside Tel Aviv.

On Tuesday, two pilots aboard another Super Hornet, again on the Truman, were forced to eject after their fighter jet failed to catch the steel cable on the carrier deck, sending the plane into the Red Sea.

By then, Mr. Trump had decided to declare the operation a success.

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Houthi officials and their supporters swiftly declared victory, too, spreading a social media hashtag that read “Yemen defeats America.”

Ismaeel Naar contributed reporting from Dubai, United Arab Emirates.

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