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Russian gas set to stop flowing through Ukraine

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Russian gas set to stop flowing through Ukraine

Russian gas flows through Ukraine are set to stop on Wednesday when a transit deal between the two countries expires in the wake of Moscow’s full-scale invasion.

The pipeline was one of the last two routes still carrying Russian gas to Europe nearly three years into the full-scale war. EU countries will lose about 5 per cent of gas imports in the middle of winter.

While traders had long expected flows to stop, the end of the pipeline route through Ukraine will affect Europe’s gas balance at a time when demand for heating is high. Slovakia is the country most affected.

“While one would assume that losing those volumes [is] priced in, a strong upward price response initially isn’t out of the question,” said Aldo Spanjer, senior commodities strategist at BNP Paribas.

The deal to allow Russian gas to pass through Ukraine was agreed at the end of 2019, signed a day before the previous 10-year contract between the national gas companies was set to expire. At the time, the European Commission strongly promoted the deal.

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After Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine, however, the commission encouraged member states to seek alternative supplies as the bloc moved to wean itself off Russian fossil fuel imports. The Moscow-friendly governments of Hungary and Slovakia have resisted that shift and have sought to extend the deal beyond January 1.

The Ukrainian government had telegraphed months in advance that it was unwilling to negotiate an extension to the deal, as it wanted to deprive the Kremlin of its income from gas exports. Ending the flows would result in a $6.5bn loss for Russia, unless it could redirect them, according to the Brussels-based think-tank, Bruegel.

But it would also be a financial blow to Ukraine, which earned about $1bn a year in gas transit fees, though only about a fifth of that was gross profits. Analysts have suggested that Ukraine’s vast gas pipeline infrastructure could face increasing Russian attack, if there was no Russian gas flowing through it.

Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico visited Moscow on December 22 to discuss the gas transit contract. He blasted Ukraine’s intransigence on the deal, asking whether the country had “the right to damage the economic national interests of an [EU] member state”.

Fico said on Facebook shortly before the deal’s expiry that “other gas transit options than Russian gas were presented to Ukrainian partners, but these were also rejected by the Ukrainian president”. The Slovak prime minister has also threatened to cut off back-up electricity supplies from Slovakia to Ukraine as retaliation.

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Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has likewise sought to find a workaround to allow Russian gas imports via Ukraine. His government has also turned to the last remaining pipeline shipping Russian gas via Turkey and to neighbouring Romania to complement supplies.

Austria, which still imported Russian gas throughout 2024, has shifted to alternative sources such as liquid natural gas imports. Its energy company OMV in mid-December terminated its long-term contract with Russia’s Gazprom because of a legal dispute.

The cut-off of gas will also have a significant impact on neighbouring Moldova, which in mid-December introduced a state of emergency in the energy sector because of the uncertainty around Russian gas transit.

The halt to Russian gas flows through Ukraine is likely to increase European demand for pricier LNG, for which Asia is also competing.

EU officials have been adamant that the bloc can live without Russian pipeline supplies, even if it means accepting more expensive shipped gas from elsewhere.

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The European Commission said on Tuesday it did not expect disruption. “European gas infrastructure is flexible enough to provide gas of non-Russian origin to central and eastern Europe via alternative routes,” it said. “It has been reinforced with significant new LNG import capacities since 2022.”

The Turkey pipeline still transporting Russian gas to Europe contributes about 5 per cent of the EU’s imports. The US recently imposed sanctions on Gazprombank, the main conduit for Russian energy payments.

But to mitigate the impact of sanctions, Russian President Vladimir Putin in early December dropped a requirement for foreign buyers of Russian gas to pay through the bank. Countries such as Turkey and Hungary also said they have received US exemptions from sanctions.

“The sanctions had previously added an extra layer of uncertainty over the fate of Europe’s remaining Russian gas supply as we enter the new year, helping to keep gas prices volatile,” said Natasha Fielding, head of European gas pricing at Argus Media, a pricing agency. The US waiver meant that “buyers of Russian gas delivered through the Turkish Stream pipeline could breathe a sigh of relief”, she said.

Traders are not ruling out an increase in Russian gas flows into Europe in the future. European companies that are reeling from high gas and energy prices, forcing them to cut back production, would return to buying Russian gas, which was inherently cheaper than LNG, one senior trader said.

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“At some stage there will be a peace agreement . . . People will want to end the war, therefore they have to sign a peace agreement. One of the things Russia will get is its ability to resupply” Europe with gas, the trader said.

While European governments may impose restrictions to prevent the continent from once again becoming over-reliant on Russian gas, the trader said, “you would expect to see some Russian gas back in Europe, because fundamentally, geography has not changed”.

Additional reporting by Andrew Bounds

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With the white nationalist group Patriot Front, what you see is not what you get

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With the white nationalist group Patriot Front, what you see is not what you get

Members of the group Patriot Front ride the subway as a commuter looks on, in Washington, D.C., on July 4.

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The sight of hundreds of masked men roaming the streets of Washington, D.C., on July Fourth weekend, wearing khakis, blue shirts and uniform patches, was chilling to some of the city’s residents.

For many Americans, it was the first they heard about Patriot Front, a white nationalist organization that was born out of the deadly 2017 Unite the Right rally in Charlottesville, Va. A now-viral Reuters photo prompted reflections on the experience of a lone African American woman who was photographed in a Metro subway car, surrounded by white supremacists.

The planned demonstration of force was timed to bring a fringe group of extremists into public view as the nation marked 250 years of its independence. Indeed, the stunt succeeded in earning the group media coverage across mainstream outlets, amplifying its brand and potential to reach new recruits. On this occasion, the members refrained from engaging in violence and property damage, projecting an image of law-abiding, orderly activism.

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But those who are closely familiar with Patriot Front’s history and operations warn: Don’t believe what you see.

“That is not who they are in private,” said Len Kamdang, director of the Criminal Justice Project at the Lawyers’ Committee for Civil Rights Under Law. “Although they were on their best behavior [last] weekend, this is a dangerous group that commits acts of violence all over the country.”

Patriot Front’s history of violence and property damage

Kamdang’s organization sued members of Patriot Front for vandalizing a public mural dedicated to the tennis legend and Black activist Arthur Ashe in Richmond, Va., in 2021. Ashe, who was inducted into the International Tennis Hall of Fame in 1985, was born in Richmond and his legacy is a continuing source of pride to members of that community.

“A couple of Patriot Front members showed up under cover of night and vandalized the mural,” Kamdang said. “They painted white stencils all over. … They literally tried to whitewash him and they put their symbols of hate all over — their stencils, their slogans. And all the while they were caught on video. And that video leaked using some of the most horrible language that you can imagine.”

In many jurisdictions, law enforcement can seek additional hate crime charges or sentencing enhancements in cases where illegal acts appear to have been motivated by racial bias. But in this case, Kamdang said, Patriot Front members faced no criminal charges and their identities were only revealed when online activists later infiltrated the group and leaked internal records.

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Graham Platner makes it official in Maine, submitting paperwork to leave Senate race

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Graham Platner makes it official in Maine, submitting paperwork to leave Senate race

Now-former Democratic Senate candidate Graham Platner speaks at his primary election night event on June 9 in Blue Hill, Maine. Platner officially dropped out of the race July 10 following rape allegations from a former romantic partner that he denies.

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Graham Platner, Maine’s Democratic nominee for Senate, is officially out of the race.

The Maine Secretary of State said Platner filed the necessary paperwork to withdraw his candidacy two days after he announced he planned to do so following an accusation of rape by a former romantic partner. Platner denies the allegation.

The Maine Democratic Party has until July 27 to pick Platner’s replacement.

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In his withdrawal notice, Platner said “people are desperate for change” and that’s why they voted “for a new kind of politics” by making him the Democratic nominee. He expressed gratitude for those who supported his campaign and said that he will continue to fight for “the movement we have built together and the future we believe in.”

He ended his notice with a strong statement aligned with the progressive platform.

“F*ck ICE. Free Palestine. Up the Hearts.”

Platner announced his plan to withdraw from the race in an 11-minute video he posted to social media on July 8. He said he had no choice but to suspend his campaign, citing it was no longer viable financially.

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“We are going to lose our ability to fundraise. We are going to lose our ability to access voter data. We are going to lose all of the things that any campaign needs on the basic level simply to function,” he said.

Platner added that dropping out was not an admission of guilt. Rather, the decision, he said, is to keep the progressive movement in Maine alive to defeat Republican Sen. Susan Collins in November. Platner blamed the “political establishment” for his downfall and argued the goal was to force him out of the race.

“We built a campaign. We engaged in electoral politics. We motivated people. We banded together. We did it the way that we were told we are supposed to make change and we won. And now they are not going to let us have it. Not if it’s me,” he said.

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Waymo called the cops on teen riders, raising privacy concerns

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Waymo called the cops on teen riders, raising privacy concerns

A Waymo robotaxi drives in San Francisco’s North Beach neighborhood this week.

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Police in San Mateo, Calif., posted Monday on social media that they had apprehended a pair of teenagers from a Waymo driverless robotaxi after the company alerted authorities to suspected criminal activity. It’s the latest incident involving video surveillance of passengers and others by autonomous vehicles — raising questions about the limits of privacy in such vehicles.

The Facebook post by the San Mateo County Police said: “Parents do you know where your teens are? @waymo does!”

The 15-year-olds were allegedly drinking alcohol and shooting toy guns from the car, according to the police. They said Waymo’s systems detected behavior that then triggered a safety response, after which the company disabled the vehicle and contacted police.

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Waymo’s cars, equipped with an array of cameras, microphones and other sensors to monitor passengers and other nearby vehicles, are becoming more common in cities across the United States. Experts say the detention of the two teens in San Mateo highlights a potential — but not inevitable — trade-off between privacy and convenience. It also questions the extent to which companies similar to Waymo are required to hand over private data, including audio and video of passengers, in situations where a crime is suspected.

NPR reached out to Waymo, which is owned by Alphabet, the parent company of Google, for comment on the details of the San Mateo incident and how the company responded, but did not hear back. But on its website, the company says that as many as 29 cameras in its autonomous cars provide an all-around view and “are designed with high dynamic range and thermal stability, to see in both daylight and low-light conditions, and tackle more complex environments.”

“There already exist laws that govern duty to report or even duty to protect” for carriers such as Waymo, according to Alessandro Acquisti, a professor of information technology at the MIT Sloan School of Management. “The privacy problems arise when and if driverless carrier companies used such laws or ethical obligations as a pretext for blanket, indiscriminate accumulation of identifiable data for unspecified future purposes.”

That includes not just monitoring people inside the cars, but outside too. Take, for example, a hit-and-run investigation last year in Los Angeles. Media reported that the police inquiry was aided by video captured by a Waymo taxi that had a clear view of the crime. Critics suggested at the time that authorities were using the company’s vehicles as a mobile surveillance platform. And during 2025 protests in Los Angeles against Immigration and Customs Enforcement crackdowns, demonstrators vandalized Waymos, apparently angry that video recorded by the vehicles could be used by police, although there is no evidence that happened.

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