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Results: The Most Detailed Maps of the Iowa Republican Caucuses

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Results: The Most Detailed Maps of the Iowa Republican Caucuses

No vote estimates available.

Map is colored by the candidate who leads in each precinct. Lightly shaded areas are more sparsely populated.

Former president Donald J. Trump won the Iowa caucuses on Monday, with The Associated Press calling the race for Mr. Trump less than an hour after caucusing began. The state Republican party is reporting precinct-level results. This is the most detailed vote data available for the first 2024 presidential election contest.

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The map above shows the leading candidate in each precinct. It is shaded according to the number of votes per square mile for that candidate, meaning sparsely populated areas where fewer caucusgoers live are lighter, and denser areas are darker.

How the top three candidates are doing in each precinct

Here’s another way to look at the results. In the maps below, precincts are shaded according to each candidate’s vote share for the three top candidates — Mr. Trump, Nikki Haley, the former South Carolina governor, and Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida.

How Republicans are voting in different kinds of areas

This table shows the leading candidate in precincts that have reported votes, based on the demographics of those areas.

Precincts in… Leader margin Avg. vote share

Lower income areas

Higher income areas

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Areas with fewer college graduates

Areas with more college graduates

Rural areas

Suburban areas

Urban areas

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Trump’s support

Mr. Trump improved significantly on his performance in the Iowa caucuses in 2016, when he received 24.3 percent of the vote, losing to Ted Cruz, who received 27.6 percent. Mr. Trump gained ground in many kinds of areas, but most of all in areas with lower average incomes and fewer college graduates.

Trump’s Iowa performance in 2016 compared with 2024

Vote share for Trump in precincts …

Each dot in the charts below represents one neighborhood’s caucus precinct. The dots are positioned on the charts based on the percentage of the vote each candidate received in that precinct.

Mr. Trump’s strength on Monday has cut across many different kinds of areas. His lead is most pronounced in areas with fewer college-educated voters.

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Precincts in…

Lower income areas

Areas with fewer college graduates

Areas with more college graduates

DeSantis’s support

Mr. DeSantis is a distant second, trailing Mr. Trump by double digits. Mr. DeSantis, despite campaigning in all 99 Iowa counties, and earning the endorsement of key state officials and religious leaders, has not found consistent pockets of support among key demographic groups.

Precincts in …

Lower income areas

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Areas with fewer college graduates

Areas with more college graduates

Haley’s support

Ms. Haley has performed her best in areas that are wealthier and have a higher concentration of college-educated voters. These include precincts that surround cities like Des Moines and Iowa City.

Precincts in …

Lower income areas

Areas with fewer college graduates

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Areas with more college graduates

Methodology

Higher income areas are precincts where the median household income is $100,000 or more; lower income areas are where the median household income is less than $50,000. Areas with more college graduates are precincts where more than 40 percent of the population has a college education; areas with fewer college graduates are precincts where less than 15 percent of the population graduated college. The classification of areas as urban, rural or suburban is derived from research by Jed Kolko.

Chris Christie dropped out of the presidential race last week, but the Iowa Republican Party will still tabulate any votes he receives in the caucuses.

Election results are from The Associated Press. The Times publishes its own estimates for the number of remaining votes, based on historic turnout data and reporting from results providers. These are only estimates, and they may not be informed by reports from election officials.

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Donald Trump chooses Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy to lead government efficiency effort

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Donald Trump chooses Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy to lead government efficiency effort

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Donald Trump has named Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy to lead a “department of government efficiency”, giving the two private-sector entrepreneurs charge of a promised effort to slash rules, bureaucracy and spending throughout government.

“Threat to democracy? Nope, threat to BUREAUCRACY!!!” Musk, the world’s richest man and an ardent Trump backer, wrote on his X social media platform. “We will not go quietly, @elonmusk,” Ramaswamy wrote in another X post.

Trump said the duo would work with him and the Office of Management and Budget until July 4 2026, the 250th anniversary of the signing of the Declaration of Independence. The acronym for the new department, “Doge”, is also the name of a crypto token Musk has promoted.

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The newly created White House advisory effort will “provide advice and guidance from outside of government,” looking for ways to “dismantle” bureaucracy, “slash” regulations, “cut” spending and “restructure” agencies, Trump said in a statement on Tuesday.

The president-elect’s decision unites Musk, the leader of Tesla, X, xAI and SpaceX, with the biotech entrepreneur who ran in the 2024 Republican primary before dropping out and endorsing Trump.

Musk, whose net worth is more than $300bn, according to Forbes, became one of Trump’s most influential supporters during the campaign and has been by his side since the election as Trump has issued a flurry of nominees, appointments and new policy goals ahead of his second term.

During the 2024 campaign, Musk publicly endorsed Trump, hosted him on X, rallied for him in Pennsylvania and bankrolled a Super Pac that spent $172mn, according to the non-profit OpenSecrets.

On the campaign trail, Musk called for cutting $2tn — which would represent a significant chunk of the $6.7tn in spending from fiscal year 2024’s budget — and said the election was crucial to cutting away regulations that would strangle his dream of colonising Mars.

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Musk’s bet on Trump has been a boon for Tesla, the electric-vehicle maker he runs, whose stock has jumped almost 50 per cent over the past month. 

Officials appointed by outgoing US President Joe Biden pursued ambitious rulemaking agendas and tough enforcement policies throughout his presidency in antitrust, finance, climate and other areas. 

Gary Gensler, chair of the Securities and Exchange Commission, launched a broad set of rules ranging from cyber security to climate disclosures and equity market reforms. 

Lina Khan, chair of the Federal Trade Commission, and Jonathan Kanter, head of the Department of Justice’s antitrust division, have cracked down on anti-competitive conduct across the economy, and Khan has also proposed measures including a nationwide ban on non-compete agreements. 

Some pillars of regulators’ agendas have been thrown out by US judges amid fierce pushback from corporate America. Some market participants strategically filed legal challenges in venues known to be more sympathetic to business’s views.

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The conservative majority on the US Supreme Court has also been gradually curbing the power of federal agencies, handing down a series of decisions earlier this year that made it harder for regulators to introduce rules, curtailed their use of in-house courts for enforcement and made it easier for businesses to challenge existing measures.

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Trump will nominate South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem for homeland security secretary

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Trump will nominate South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem for homeland security secretary

South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem speaks prior to remarks from then-Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump at a campaign rally March 16 in Vandalia, Ohio.

Jeff Dean/AP


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Jeff Dean/AP

President-elect Donald Trump has announced he’ll nominate South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem to lead the Department of Homeland Security.

It’s a role that holds significant weight for Trump, who campaigned heavily on the issue of immigration, pledging to carry out mass deportations of undocumented immigrants.

Said Trump in a statement: “She will work closely with ‘Border Czar’ Tom Homan to secure the Border, and will guarantee that our American Homeland is secure from our adversaries.” Homan is the former head of Immigration and Customs Enforcement. Trump loyalist Stephen Miller is expected to be deputy chief of staff and focus on immigration policy. Neither Miller nor Homan’s positions require Senate confirmation.

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Noem, a devout Christian who is the first woman elected to serve as governor of South Dakota, is in her second term.

In his statement, Trump cited one of her notable moves leading her state: “Kristi has been very strong on Border Security. She was the first Governor to send National Guard Soldiers to help Texas fight the Biden Border Crisis, and they were sent a total of eight times.”

CNN first reported she would be Trump’s DHS pick.

Noem switched over to politics in 2006 as a state representative after helping run her family farm as a small business owner. Four years later, she headed to Washington, D.C., when she won the state’s at-large seat in the U.S. House of Representatives.

Before ultimately picking Ohio Sen. JD Vance, Trump spoke highly of Noem as he was deliberating his running mate, saying, “She’s been there for us for a long time … She’s loyal, she’s great.”

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But Noem drew criticism earlier this year for saying that Native tribes in South Dakota benefit from the drug cartel industry — a comment that led her to be banned from all nine reservations in the state.

Additionally, Noem wrote about having met North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in her memoir, No Going Back, which she then retracted from the final copy. In that same memoir, she wrote about killing her family dog, which drew particular scorn.

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Live news: Trump gives US ambassador to Israel post to ex-governor Mike Huckabee

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Live news: Trump gives US ambassador to Israel post to ex-governor Mike Huckabee

Events to look out for on Tuesday include speeches from the Federal Reserve governor, Home Depot earnings and Spotify results:

Fedspeak: Less than a week on from the central bank’s second rate cut of the year, Federal Reserve governor Chris Waller will deliver the keynote at the Clearing House Annual Conference in New York. Separately, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond president Tom Barkin is scheduled to speak at a summit in Baltimore. At Carnegie Mellon University, Philadelphia Fed president Patrick Harker will deliver a lecture on “Fintech, AI & the Changing Financial Landscape”.

Home Depot: Investors will be eager to find out whether the Federal Reserve’s back-to-back rate cuts, which will have an effect on mortgage rates, have made a difference to consumer appetite for home improvement projects. Home Depot, which last quarter cut its sales outlook on weakened consumer spending, is projected to report a 4.3 per cent increase in third-quarter revenues, to $39.3bn.

Other earnings: Tyson Foods will announce fourth-quarter earnings before the opening bell. Flutter and Spotify will post quarterly results after market close.

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