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Opinion | A Costly Passivity Toward China

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Opinion | A Costly Passivity Toward China

Home Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Legislative Yuan Vice President Tsai Chi-chang in Taipei, Aug. 3.



Photograph:

ANN WANG/REUTERS

“Totally reckless” is how one foreign-policy commentator described

Nancy Pelosi’s

journey to Taiwan. With China saying Monday that its army drills round Taiwan would proceed, Thomas Friedman’s critique, typically believed to replicate high-level sentiment within the White Home, resonated broadly amongst national-security insiders anxious about Beijing’s newly assertive army stance.

The actual image is combined. Mrs. Pelosi’s go to had vital constructive results each at house and overseas, and its affect on Chinese language coverage was much less dramatic than her critics allege.

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At house, nothing is extra vital than strengthening the American consensus about the necessity to counter China’s aggressive posture within the Pacific. By touring to Taiwan, the Home Speaker nailed her colours to the mast: The protection of Taiwan is a trigger that center-left Democrats can’t ignore. This was an vital sign to ship, and Mrs. Pelosi ought to be counseled for it.

Regionally, China’s belligerent response to the Pelosi go to horrified public opinion in each Japan and South Korea. China appears completely positioned to win over its neighbors by guarantees of widespread prosperity. As an alternative it threatens them, supporting North Korea, sending ballistic missiles into Japanese waters and threatening the safety of East Asia’s most significant commerce routes. China is terrifying its neighbors into solidifying their alliances with one another and with the U.S., and Mrs. Pelosi left a stronger alliance community behind her.

The cost that her go to made China extra hostile to the U.S. or Taiwan doesn’t bear shut examination. Nice powers hardly ever make elementary adjustments of nationwide technique based mostly on pique, and Mrs. Pelosi’s go to was no higher provocation than her predecessor Newt Gingrich’s go to in 1997. It was much less provocative than President Biden’s repeated declarations that the U.S. had deserted its longstanding coverage of strategic ambiguity and would defend Taiwan in opposition to assault from the mainland.

For a few years China has moved towards a extra assertive posture towards Taiwan as American diplomacy turned extra erratic and unpredictable—and because the U.S. and its allies allowed their overwhelming army superiority within the area to fade slowly away. If Mrs. Pelosi hadn’t visited, China would have discovered different pretexts to behave.

Xi Jinping

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might need welcomed a possibility to mission power at house by responding to the Pelosi go to with a formidable army show, however the army buildup that enabled these maneuvers has been continuing for many years.

What’s completely reckless about America’s longtime China coverage isn’t any single incident like Mrs. Pelosi’s Taiwan go to. It’s the strategic passivity and incompetence that blinded a era of American political leaders to the rising menace of great-power battle within the western Pacific.

Mrs. Pelosi is honest in her assist for Taiwan and her opposition to Communist Occasion autocracy. However to make that assist efficient, she ought to have beat the drum for the previous 15 years for higher army preparedness even when this meant bigger protection appropriations. She ought to have gone ballistic over President Obama’s passivity as China created new army bases within the South China Sea. It’s good that in what would be the final months of her speakership she is making the protection of Taiwan a precedence. However it gained’t erase the stain on the legacy of a era of American leaders who slept on the helm because the ship of state drifted into these harmful waters. Nor will it remove the hazard that Hal Manufacturers and

Michael Beckley

lately recognized on this newspaper, as China seeks to use a window of U.S. and allied vulnerability throughout this decade.

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Each the U.S. and Taiwan appear headed for some troublesome years. Forty-two p.c of Taiwan’s exports go to mainland China and Hong Kong; solely 15% go to the U.S. Even when an precise invasion or blockade doesn’t materialize any time quickly, traders—Taiwanese and international alike—will assume twice about making vital investments in what may quickly be a battle zone. That, mixed with Chinese language strain and boycotts, may considerably scale back the financial and technological dynamism that has made Taiwan what it’s at present.

The regional and international results of this local weather of insecurity might be vital. Japan and South Korea will, justifiably, fear in regards to the safety of vital commerce routes. Considerations over meals, vitality and supply-chain safety will disrupt commerce and funding patterns, contributing to inflationary pressures and additional undermining the well being of the world financial order that underpins America’s distinctive international place.

Mrs. Pelosi is a grasp of American politics. If she needs the subsequent few months of her speakership to be really memorable and even historic, she is going to use her political abilities and the ability of her workplace to construct liberal Democratic assist for the type of army buildup and alliance diplomacy that’s essential to make Taiwan safer and battle much less seemingly.

Copyright ©2022 Dow Jones & Firm, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 87990cbe856818d5eddac44c7b1cdeb8

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Appeared within the August 9, 2022, print version.

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Russia launches Christmas Day attack on Ukraine’s energy system

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Russia launches Christmas Day attack on Ukraine’s energy system

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Russia has carried out a Christmas Day attack on Ukraine’s energy system, leaving more than half a million people without heating, water and electricity. 

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the attack, the 13th large-scale assault of 2024 on the country’s grid, was “deliberate” and not a coincidence. “What could be more inhuman?” he wrote on X.

About 50 of the 70 missiles fired in the attack were intercepted, along with a “significant” portion of the more than 100 attack drones deployed, he added.

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This year Ukrainians marked Christmas Day on December 25 for the second time, after switching to the western Gregorian calendar last year. The decision to stop celebrating Christmas on January 7 in line with the Orthodox calendar was made by Kyiv to break with Russian influence.

Oleh Syniehubov, governor of Ukraine’s eastern Kharkiv region, told Ukraine’s national television news that the attack had left more than 500,000 people without heating, water and electricity.

Temperatures across Ukraine are around freezing point.

Heating supplies were also cut in some areas of Ukraine’s Ivano-Frankivsk and Dnipropetrovsk regions, in the west and south of the country. 

Ukraine’s energy grid operator, Ukrenergo, urged consumers to limit consumption by not switching on multiple appliances at once, adding that the system was still recovering from the previous Russian attack on December 13.

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Ukraine’s largest private energy company, DTEK, said that its power stations had been damaged and one of its long-term employees killed.

Ukraine’s foreign minister, Andriy Sybiha, said on X that the attack reflects Russian President Vladimir Putin’s response to “those who spoke about illusionary ‘Christmas ceasefire’”.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán said last week that Zelenskyy had rejected his proposal for a ceasefire and prisoner exchange on the January 7 Orthodox Christmas.

Ukraine denied that such a proposal was ever on the table, asking Hungary to “refrain from manipulations” regarding the war. On Friday, Heorhii Tykhyi, spokesperson for Ukraine’s foreign ministry, described it as “PR, a move” by Orbán.

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American Airlines lifts ground stop that froze Christmas Eve travelers

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American Airlines lifts ground stop that froze Christmas Eve travelers

An American Airlines agent talks to a customer at O’Hare International Airport in Chicago, Ill., last week. On Tuesday, the airline issued a national halt to flights.

Kamil Krzacznski/AFP via Getty Images


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Kamil Krzacznski/AFP via Getty Images

American Airlines passengers across the U.S. endured a sudden disruption of service on Christmas Eve, as a “technical issue” forced the airline to request a nationwide ground stop of its operations.

“The ground stop has now been lifted,” the Federal Aviation Administration told NPR shortly after 8 a.m. ET.

On Facebook and X, passengers shared stories of boarding planes early on Christmas Eve — only to be left waiting on the tarmac. In some cases, they described being told the flight would return to its gate so everyone onboard could deplane.

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The ground stop lasted for about one hour, according to the airline.

 “We sincerely apologize to our customers for the inconvenience this morning,” the airline said.

In a statement sent to NPR, American says the widespread delays were caused by a “vendor technology issue” affecting systems that are needed for a flight to be “released” — one of the final key steps before a plane takes off from an airport.

Early circumstances around Tuesday’s outage seemed ominous, reminding travelers of a nightmare scenario that played out two years ago when computer problems fueled a meltdown for Southwest Airlines as it tried to cope with bad weather during the holidays.

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Southwest stranded millions of travelers — and was later ordered to pay a $140 million civil penalty.

Aviation industry veterans like George Hamlin, a consultant, notes that Southwest took the brunt of the blame for the meltdown — but, he adds, “now we’re finding out that it’s a larger, more endemic problem than that.”

Delayed American Airlines passengers who posted to social media Tuesday said pilots blamed the slowdown on a computer system that aims to ensure an optimal center of gravity by balancing planes’ cargo weight and other factors.

Winter weather also threatens to snarl Christmas Eve travel, including storms along the East and West Coasts of the U.S.

The FAA’s operations page shows nearly a dozen airports were deicing planes Tuesday morning, including at Philadelphia International, and Dulles International and Reagan National outside Washington, D.C.

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If you’re flying, the FAA recommends checking your airline’s flight status updates for potential delays. As of 9 a.m. ET, the FlightAware website’s “Misery Map” showed some 544 flights had been delayed and five canceled since 6 a.m. Nearly 120 of those delays were at Charlotte, N.C.’s, airport.

Nearly 12.7 million passengers are expected to fly on American Airlines this winter holiday season, comprising more than 118,000 flights, according to the airline. The most-traveled days in that span are both Fridays, ahead of and just after Christmas.

NPR’s Joel Rose contributed reporting.

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Private equity payouts fell 50% short in 2024

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Private equity payouts fell 50% short in 2024

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Private equity funds cashed out just half the value of investments they typically sell in 2024, the third consecutive year payouts to investors have fallen short because of a deal drought.

Buyout houses typically sell down 20 per cent of their investments in any given year, but industry executives forecast that cash payouts for the year would be about half that figure.

Cambridge Associates, a leading adviser to large institutions on their private equity investments, estimated that funds had fallen about $400bn short in payments to their investors over the past three years compared with historical averages.

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The data underline the increasing pressure on firms to find ways to return cash to investors, including by exiting more investments in the year ahead.

Firms have struggled to strike deals at attractive prices since early 2022, when rising interest rates caused financing costs to soar and corporate valuations to fall.

Dealmakers and their advisers expect that merger and acquisition activity will accelerate in 2025, potentially helping the industry work through what consultancy Bain & Co. has called a “towering backlog” of $3tn in ageing deals that must be sold in the years ahead.

Several large public offerings this year including food transport giant Lineage Logistics, aviation equipment specialist Standard Aero and dermatology group Galderma have provided private equity executives with confidence to take companies public, while Donald Trump’s election has added to Wall Street exuberance.

But Andrea Auerbach, global head of private investments at Cambridge Associates, cautioned that the industry’s issues could take years to work through.

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“There is an expectation that the wheels of the exit market will start to turn. But it doesn’t end in one year, it will take a couple of years,” Auerbach said.

Private equity firms have used novel tactics to return cash to investors while holdings have proved difficult to sell.

They have made increasing use of so-called continuation funds — where one fund sells a stake in one or more portfolio companies to another fund to another fund the firm manages — to engineer exits.

Jefferies forecasts that there will be $58bn of continuation fund deals in 2024, representing a record 14 per cent of all private equity exits. Such funds made up just 5 per cent of all exits in the boom year of 2021, Jefferies found.

But some private equity investors are sceptical that the industry will be able to sell assets at prices close to funds’ current valuations.

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“You have a huge amount of capital that has been invested on assumptions that are no longer valid,” a large industry investor told the Financial Times.

They warned that a record $1tn-plus in buyouts were struck in 2021, just before interest rates rose, and many deals are carried on firms’ books at overly optimistic valuations.

Goldman Sachs recently noted in a report that private equity asset sales, which had historically been done at a premium of at least 10 per cent to funds’ internal valuations, have in recent years been made at discounts of 10-15 per cent.

“[Private] equity in general is still over-marked, which is leading to this situation where assets are still stuck,” said Michael Brandmeyer of Goldman Sachs Asset Management in the report.

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