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Middle East’s power scales tip as Israel senses Iran’s weakness

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Middle East’s power scales tip as Israel senses Iran’s weakness

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The writer is former chief of MI6 and UK ambassador to the UN

In the past two weeks, Israel has used its huge military advantage, underpinned by AI-enhanced intelligence, to overwhelm Hizbollah. The organisation has lost its top leadership and many of the next generation. Its communications system has been destroyed, as have many of its rocket and missile launch sites. This comes after Hamas’s military capacity has been largely dismantled.

It feels like we are witnessing a substantial shift in the balance of power in the Middle East, in Israel’s favour and at Iran’s expense.

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Since Hamas’s brutal October 7 assault a year ago, Iran has been loud on rhetoric but has done little of substance to protect the militias it helped build up. In his UN speech, President Masoud Pezeshkian put the priority on lifting sanctions — a goal diametrically opposed to getting involved on Hizbollah’s behalf. Iran’s vice-president for strategic affairs, Mohammad Javad Zarif, said recently that supporting the Palestinians didn’t mean going to war for them. Iran seems cowed, lacking the will and military capacity to respond and not prepared to risk instability at home as it enters an uncertain leadership transition.

Israel has smelled the weakness in Tehran and is driving home its advantage. No one should feel sorry for Hizbollah — for over 40 years, it has used violence to accumulate power in Lebanon. Those who live by the sword die by the sword.

How will Hizbollah respond now it has been brought to its knees? It still has the much-vaunted precision missiles which could strike at Israeli cities. Iran may be holding Hizbollah back as these were provided as a deterrent against an Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities. We don’t know if Iran has a dual key over their use. But if Israel starts to destroy the missile arsenal then Hizbollah may face a “use it or lose it” moment.

Widespread Israeli civilian deaths would probably trigger a ground invasion by Israel, which some in Hizbollah might relish — a chance to even the scores in the hostile terrain Israeli forces would have to advance through. For that reason, Benjamin Netanyahu would probably prefer to keep his troops on Israel’s side of the border rather than marching to Beirut’s southern suburbs and to the Bekaa Valley where Hizbollah’s most deadly missiles are probably located. A more limited advance to the Litani River is possible but would leave Israel half in and half out, with no exit strategy.

An alternative path for Hizbollah would be a resort to international terrorism. When well-organised regional groups lose their leadership, a more extreme and violent entity can take their place. Isis emerged after more sophisticated opposition groups in Iraq and Syria were dismantled. Killing seasoned political leaders like Hassan Nasrallah and Hamas’s Ismail Haniyeh is a gamble for Israel but one it seems ready for.

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Tough military action against Iranian-backed militias dovetails neatly with Israel’s politics, which lean further and further to the right. Enduring stability for Israel will ultimately only come with a political solution in the region. But the same domestic dynamics that are driving Netanyahu to press home Israel’s advantage make a broader political settlement more distant. The best time to engage in a political process is when you are strong and your enemies are weak. But the make-up of Israel’s ruling coalition makes a political initiative with the divided and badly led Palestinians hard to conceive.

It is usually the Americans who try to midwife political progress in the region. But the Biden administration’s power — never very strong in the Middle East — is wilting. It takes months for a new administration to decide on its priorities, and the approaches of Donald Trump and Kamala Harris would be very different. Meanwhile, the Middle East will remain tense and volatile.

One actor we have heard little from in the past year is Syria. The Syrian regime used to be the arbiter in Lebanon and was willing to kill any Lebanese politician who didn’t bow to diktats from Damascus. The regime is now much weaker after the civil war and Bashar al-Assad is not a patch on his father when it comes to political power plays. But Syria remains relevant as an ally of Iran, Russia and Hizbollah, and a crucial link in Hizbollah’s supply chain.

Although Hizbollah helped the Assad regime survive in 2013-14, Damascus will want to stay aligned with Iran if it can. It also has bitter memories of the 1982 Lebanon war when the Syrian air force intervened only to be destroyed by Israel. With Iran and Syria focused on their own issues, only the distant Houthis seem up for attacking Israel, so far to little effect. This may be the start of the final chapter for the Axis of Resistance.  

 

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Parts of Florida receive rare snowfall as freezing temperatures linger

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Parts of Florida receive rare snowfall as freezing temperatures linger

A protective coating of ice clings to a strawberry plant in sub-freezing temperatures at a field on Friday in Plant City, Fla.

Chris O’Meara/AP


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Chris O’Meara/AP

A rare snowfall covered parts of the Sunshine State on Sunday for the second year in a row, while freezing temperatures will continue to grip parts of Florida into early this week.

A storm system brought up to 2 inches of snow to southern portions of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, including Pensacola, on Sunday morning, according to the National Weather Service (NWS).

The snowfall occurred almost a year to the day after parts of Florida received record snow in mid-January 2025 — when Pensacola received between 6 to 8 inches of snow.

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And while Sunday’s snowfall is over in Florida, a blast of arctic cold that has been felt across parts of the state since Friday is not.

Orlando and other areas will face a freeze warning Sunday night into Monday morning, with temperatures falling to at least 25 degrees and wind chills in the low 20s in some places, according to the NWS. Further south, Naples and surrounding areas will be under a cold weather advisory Sunday night into Monday morning, where 29-degree wind chills are expected.

Cold temperatures coupled with snow are abnormal for Florida but the cold weather will be “short-lived,” said Joe Wegman, a NWS meteorologist.

“We’re only expecting this level of cold for tonight. And then, even by tomorrow night, we’ll have lows in the upper 30s. So, just still cold, well below normal,” Wegman told NPR on Sunday. “By Tuesday night, lows are back up into the upper 40s.”

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Did Hunter S. Thompson Really Kill Himself?

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Did Hunter S. Thompson Really Kill Himself?

Almost from the moment Hunter was laid to rest, his widow and his son began to feud, over everything from the future of Owl Farm to Juan’s belief that his father had been mistreated by Anita in his last days.

The estrangement deepened with time, and now, Anita’s suspicions have taken the feud to a more pointed place, revealing a long, bitter fight over the legacy of the man who pioneered the personal, participatory style of reporting known as gonzo journalism.

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But they were all together the weekend Hunter died.

Juan wrote in his memoir that he was in another room and heard a thump that sounded like a book hitting the floor. Anita was at a health club in Aspen waiting for a yoga class to start. She later told the news media she was on speakerphone with her husband before he shot himself, and heard the “clicking” of the gun.

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Looking back, there were signs from that last weekend that Hunter had planned to take his own life, Juan and Jennifer said in interviews.

He insisted on watching one of his favorite movies, “The Maltese Falcon,” with his 6-year-old grandson, Will. He gave away gifts — an old clock that had belonged to his mother and a signed copy of “Fire in the Nuts,” a short book with his frequent collaborator, the artist Ralph Steadman.

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Ralph Steadman spoke about Hunter’s suicidal ideations in an interview after his death in 2005. ITN, via Getty Images By Itn

“So there is nothing new to know about Hunter’s actual death,” said Juan, 61. “So I do not know why she raised this. And I can’t imagine that the C.B.I. would find anything to act on.”

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He and Jennifer said they did not have any role in Hunter’s death. “This is really shocking,” Jennifer said. “It’s been disruptive to our family. It’s obviously been very traumatic to be revisiting this.” She said she believed Anita knew that her husband took his own life, and added, “we hope this brings her closure.”

Jennifer Winkel

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Anita had been an assistant to Hunter, and was 35 years younger than him. At the time of his death, they had been married for less than two years — it was Hunter’s second marriage — and that last weekend they fought constantly. In his memoir, Juan wrote that Hunter shot a pellet gun at a gong in the living room the night before he killed himself, just missing Anita, prompting her to threaten to call the police and have him put in a nursing home.

Hunter was also in poor health. He had difficulty moving and suffered occasional seizures, the result of decades of heavy drinking.

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“Hunter’s body was giving out,” said Debra Fuller, who worked as an assistant to Hunter and helped manage Owl Farm for almost 20 years before Hunter married Anita. “He was having more difficulty writing as well.”

Hunter had often talked of suicide. Like many of Hunter’s friends, Joe DiSalvo, who was undersheriff of Pitkin County at the time of his death, had conversations with him about how his life would end. He recalled that Hunter would demonstrate his intentions by pointing a loaded gun at his head.

“Hunter talked about suicide,” Mr. DiSalvo said. “He talked about the way he was going to kill himself.”

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U.S. military troops on standby for possible deployment to Minnesota

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U.S. military troops on standby for possible deployment to Minnesota

Federal law enforcement agents confront protesters during a demonstration outside the Bishop Whipple Federal Building in Minneapolis, Minnesota, on Thursday.

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Octavio Jones/AFP via Getty Images

Up to 1,500 U.S. active-duty troops in Alaska are on standby for possible deployment to Minnesota, a U.S. official who was not authorized to speak publicly has confirmed to NPR.

The move comes days after President Trump again threatened to invoke the Insurrection Act to control ongoing protests over the immigration enforcement surge in Minneapolis as well as clashes between federal agents and residents. Trump later walked back that threat.

The troops on standby are from the Army’s 11th Airborne Division, which specializes in cold weather operations, according to the division’s website.

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Chief Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell said Sunday in an emailed statement to NPR that the “Department of War is always prepared to execute the orders of the Commander-in-Chief if called upon.”

Over the weekend, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz directed the Minnesota National Guard to prepare for possible deployment to assist local law enforcement and emergency management agencies, though they have not been deployed yet.

The Guard said in a Facebook post that these “Minnesota National Guardsmen live, work, and serve in our state, and are focused on protecting life, preserving property, and ensuring Minnesotans can safely exercise their First Amendment rights.” If activated, members would wear yellow reflective vests to “help distinguish them from other agencies in similar uniforms.”

The developments follow days of rising tensions, confrontations and violence stemming from what the Department of Homeland Security has described as its largest operation in history, involving thousands of federal agents, including those from Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE).

Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey told NBC’s Meet the Press on Sunday that it would be a “shocking step” if Trump sent the military into the city, too.

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“To those that are paying attention, you’ve got to understand how wild this is right now,” Frey said. “In Minneapolis, crime is dramatically down. We don’t need more federal agents to keep people safe. We are safe.”

Joseph Nunn, an attorney at the Brennan Center’s Liberty and National Security Program, said the Insurrection Act is a “break-glass-in-case-of-emergency type of tool.” It is meant to be used when civilian authorities are overwhelmed by a crisis, he said, and not simply to quell protests — even violent protests.

“It would be a flagrant abuse of the Insurrection Act” if Trump invoked it now, Nunn said, “unlike anything that’s ever happened before in the history of the country.”

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