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How McCarthy survived the House chaos to win the speaker’s gavel | CNN Politics

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How McCarthy survived the House chaos to win the speaker’s gavel | CNN Politics



CNN
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Florida Rep. Matt Gaetz strode into Home GOP Chief Kevin McCarthy’s workplace on Monday evening with an inventory of calls for. Amongst them: The chairmanship of a key Home Armed Companies subcommittee.

McCarthy rejected the provide. That call set in movement a sequence of occasions that left Gaetz and McCarthy locked in open confrontation on the Home flooring late Friday evening. Gaetz, McCarthy’s staunchest opponent, dramatically denied McCarthy the ultimate vote he wanted to turn out to be speaker – then Gaetz and the final holdouts abruptly modified course permitting McCarthy to win the speaker’s gavel on his fifteenth try.

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See the second Rep. Kevin McCarthy was elected Home speaker

Earlier than the ultimate vote, pandemonium erupted on the Home flooring after Gaetz waited till the very finish of the 14th poll to vote “current” when McCarthy wanted yet one more “sure” vote. Shocked after believing he had the votes, McCarthy confronted his most embarrassing defeat but. McCarthy’s allies encircled Gaetz to attempt to discover a method ahead. McCarthy quickly made a bee-line for dialogue and began participating Gaetz, too.

After McCarthy walked away from Gaetz, wanting dejected, Armed Companies Chairman Mike Rogers moved towards the dialog and lunged at Gaetz, having to be bodily restrained by Republican Rep. Richard Hudson of North Carolina. Rogers, a Republican from Alabama who earlier within the week warned the GOP dissidents they’d lose their committee assignments, informed Gaetz he could be “completed” for persevering with to wreck the speaker’s vote.

Close by, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia was making an attempt to persuade Rep. Matt Rosendale of Montana, one other McCarthy holdout, to take her cellular phone and communicate to former President Donald Trump, who was on the road.

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Lastly, the Home clerk introduced for the 14th time that nobody had the votes to be speaker. Republicans moved to adjourn the chamber till Monday. Because the vote timer counted down, 218 Republicans had voted sure, a majority that may have despatched McCarthy dwelling for the weekend and left the Home in paralysis by the hands of Gaetz and his allies.

The sign at McCarthy's office is installed on Capitol Hill in Washington, early Saturday on January 7, 2023.

However with lower than a minute left to go within the vote, Gaetz moved towards the entrance of the chamber, grabbing a pink index card to alter his vote on adjournment. Gaetz walked towards McCarthy, and the 2 briefly exchanged phrases. McCarthy then raised his hand and yelled out, “Another!” as he triumphantly walked towards the entrance of the chamber to alter his vote, too. It was the GOP chief’s remaining negotiation capping an emotional curler coaster over the course of 4 days as he was held hostage by a slim faction of his convention. Dozens of Republicans adopted McCarthy and Gaetz to defeat the adjournment measure, and McCarthy’s victory, finally, was at hand.

The six Republican holdouts all voted current on the fifteenth poll, giving McCarthy a 216-212 victory to finish the longest speaker’s race since 1859. Rep. Tom Emmer, one among McCarthy’s prime deputies, went up and down the aisles telling Republicans on the Home flooring to not clap for Gaetz or Rep. Lauren Boebert once they introduced their votes, like that they had for different holdouts who had flipped to McCarthy earlier within the day.

Requested why he reversed course on McCarthy, Gaetz mentioned, “I ran out of issues I might even think about to ask for.”

McCarthy expressed reduction as he left the ground: “I’m glad it’s over.”

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McCarthy denied Gaetz was supplied the subcommittee gavel he had sought earlier within the week in alternate for his vote. “Nobody will get promised something,” McCarthy mentioned.

Rep. Richard Hudson, R-N.C., left, pulls Rep. Mike Rogers, R-Ala., back as they talk with Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-Fla., and other during the 14th round of voting for speaker as the House meets for the fourth day to try and elect a speaker and convene the 118th Congress in Washington, Friday, Jan. 6, 2023. At right is Rep. Patrick McHenry, R-N.C. (AP Photo/Andrew Harnik)

GOP lawmaker needed to be restrained whereas confronting Gaetz. Hear what he informed him

The chaotic scramble to the speakership got here after days of marathon negotiations that uncovered deep divides throughout the GOP and threw into query their skill to control successfully within the 118th Congress. However McCarthy’s victory after dealing with 20 defectors on Tuesday additionally highlighted the profitable technique concocted by McCarthy and his prime lieutenants to defeat the self-proclaimed “By no means Kevin” motion led by Gaetz.

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McCarthy’s technique led to a breakthrough over two votes Friday afternoon, when McCarthy flipped 14 Republicans who had voted in opposition to him following marathon talks over Home guidelines – setting the stage for the Eleventh-hour chaos with the ultimate six holdouts.

It’s too quickly to say whether or not the four-day speaker drama will turn out to be little greater than an historic footnote for the 118th Congress, or if it’s an early indicator of much more bruising fights to return. However the struggle over the speaker’s gavel uncovered the bitter fault traces effervescent up within the Republican Celebration for the higher course of a decade that can hover over the Home for the following two years.

McCarthy’s concessions to the GOP dissidents are important and will finally minimize his tenure as speaker quick. Among the many guidelines adjustments: McCarthy agreed to revive a rule permitting a single Republican member to name for a vote to depose him as speaker, the identical rule that led to John Boehner’s choice to resign as speaker in 2015.

Nonetheless, McCarthy’s victory Friday now offers him the long-sought speaker’s gavel and the possibility to guide a Home that can rapidly flip its focus to investigating President Joe Biden, his administration and his household. More difficult for McCarthy and his convention are the looming fights later this yr over authorities spending and the debt ceiling, the place McCarthy minimize offers on spending throughout this week’s negotiations more likely to be unacceptable each to Democrats and the White Home in addition to Senate Republicans.

This account of how McCarthy lastly received the fifth longest speaker’s struggle in historical past relies on dozens of interviews all through the week because the drama performed out on and off the Home flooring with the destiny of McCarthy’s political profession and the legislative physique itself hanging within the steadiness.

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WASHINGTON, DC - JANUARY 06: U.S. Rep.-elect Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) offers a phone to Rep.-elect Matt Rosendale (R-MT) in the House Chamber during the fourth day of voting for Speaker of the House at the U.S. Capitol Building on January 06, 2023 in Washington, DC. The House of Representatives is meeting to vote for the next Speaker after House Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) failed to earn more than 218 votes on several ballots; the first time in 100 years that the Speaker was not elected on the first ballot. (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

Evaluation: Dana Bash reacts to McCarthy thanking Trump for speaker position

The morning following McCarthy’s Monday assembly with Gaetz, issues bought even worse for the GOP chief.

In a tense assembly within the basement of the Capitol with the total Home GOP Convention, McCarthy and Gaetz bought right into a screaming match. McCarthy known as out his detractors for asking for private favors, together with Gaetz, whom he mentioned knowledgeable him he didn’t care if Democrat Hakeem Jeffries was elected speaker as long as he didn’t get the job.

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Afterward, the Florida Republican accused McCarthy of appearing in dangerous religion by asking him for an inventory of calls for – after which by later berating him over it.

“It was very unseemly,” Rep. Dan Bishop of North Carolina, one of many 20 who initially opposed McCarthy.

That assembly – the place Rep. Lauren Boebert of Colorado known as out “bulls**t” on McCarthy and the place the GOP chief engaged in heated exchanges with Reps. Chip Roy of Texas and Scott Perry of Pennsylvania – set the stage for the livid four-day battle.

Afterward, McCarthy and his allies knew that they had an issue. They noticed his opposition rising amid anger over McCarthy’s threats and hard discuss. In order that they started to work on a technique: Take the temperature down and divide the opponents away from Gaetz and supply concessions to far-right members of the convention who need extra say within the legislative course of.

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McCarthy explains tense Home flooring dialogue with Gaetz

At midday, the Home gaveled within the 118th Congress, and lawmakers swarmed the Home flooring, kids in tow, for what was supposed to start a day of pageantry. In an indication of the brand new Republican guidelines, the magnetometers put in by outgoing Speaker Nancy Pelosi within the wake of the January 6, 2021, assault on the Capitol had been faraway from the doorways to the Home flooring.

The primary order of enterprise rapidly revealed the depth of the GOP opposition to McCarthy’s speakership bid.

McCarthy wanted 218 votes, a majority of the Home, that means he might solely lose 4 of the 222 Republicans so long as all Democrats voted for Jeffries. The clerk known as out the names of all 434 members to vote in alphabetical order. McCarthy was denied a majority earlier than the Home clerk was by the “C’s,” and 19 Republicans voted for somebody aside from McCarthy – leaving him 15 votes quick.

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Jeffries, the brand new Democratic chief, bought probably the most votes with 212.

McCarthy’s camp hunkered down, making ready to undergo a number of votes for speaker for the primary time in a century. “We’re going to conflict,” a senior GOP supply informed CNN.

McCarthy’s opponents had been simply as dug in. “We are going to by no means cave,” mentioned Rep. Bob Good of Virginia.

On the second poll, Rep. Jim Jordan of Ohio – the Republican rabble-rouser turned McCarthy ally – rose to appoint McCarthy, after he had obtained six votes from the holdouts. Gaetz adopted Jordan by nominating the Ohio Republican himself as a candidate. All 19 Republicans holdouts consolidated round Jordan, and the rely resulted in the identical place as the primary poll.

Earlier than the third vote, Rep. Byron Donalds of Florida, who had voted for McCarthy on the primary two ballots, informed CNN that McCarthy did not “shut the deal.” When his title was known as minutes later, Donalds introduced he was voting for Jordan, McCarthy’s first defection.

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The record of McCarthy’s opponents grew to twenty when the third vote was introduced, and the Home adjourned for the day.

Rep. Lauren Boebert stands next to Rep. Byron Donalds as she casts her vote in the House chamber during the second day of elections for speaker at the US Capitol on January 4, 2023.

After the Tuesday’s three failed votes, McCarthy had debated having one other GOP convention assembly. However the California Republican was suggested to not, fearful it might not be productive and would result in one other heated venting session that was leaked to the press in actual time.

WASHINGTON, DC - JANUARY 07: U.S. Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy (D-CA) celebrates with the gavel after being elected in the House Chamber at the U.S. Capitol Building on January 07, 2023 in Washington, DC. After four days of voting and 15 ballots McCarthy secured enough votes to become Speaker of the House for the 118th Congress. (Photo by Win McNamee/Getty Images)

Hear Kevin McCarthy’s first speech as Home speaker

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As a substitute, McCarthy’s camp finally determined small conferences could be extra fruitful after the 2 factions retreated to their corners. McCarthy made his personal spherical of calls Tuesday night, together with to former President Donald Trump. Earlier than leaving the Capitol, McCarthy claimed to reporters he believed he was “not that far-off” from the votes he wanted.

McCarthy mentioned that the previous president “reiterated help” for his speaker bid.

The day earlier than the vote for speaker, the previous president had declined to concern an announcement reiterating his endorsement of McCarthy regardless of a behind-the-scenes effort from a number of McCarthy allies to get Trump to take action.

Lastly, on Wednesday morning, Trump did launch an announcement on his social media website urging the Home GOP to “VOTE FOR KEVIN.”

The previous president’s message had little impact.

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“I disagree with Trump. That is our struggle. This isn’t Trump’s,” mentioned South Carolina GOP Rep. Ralph Norman, one of many McCarthy dissenters.

Trump continued to maintain the Home drama at arms’ size till Friday, when he made calls to Gaetz and Rep. Andy Biggs of Arizona whereas they had been on the Home flooring. After McCarthy received the speakership, Trump congratulated him on his social media website.

Rep. Patrick McHenry, left, and Rep. Tom Emmer speak with McCarthy in the House chamber on January 4, 2023, as lawmakers meet for a second day to elect a speaker and convene the 118th Congress.

When the Home gaveled again into session Wednesday, McCarthy lacked the votes to adjourn the session, as a few of his allies had needed with a purpose to hold negotiating. So McCarthy headed towards a fourth poll.

Jordan urged McCarthy’s opponents to not nominate him once more. As a substitute, Rep. Chip Roy of Texas stood as a substitute to appoint Donalds – the very Republican who had defected the day prior.

Whereas the McCarthy opponents didn’t develop their ranks – a sigh of reduction for McCarthy – the California Republican nonetheless misplaced one vote: Rep. Victoria Spartz, an Indiana Republican, who voted current. Spartz informed reporters her vote was meant to encourage the 2 sides to get again to the negotiating desk.

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There have been different indicators that a few of McCarthy’s backers weren’t prepared to stay by him endlessly. Rep. Ken Buck, a Colorado Republican and Home Freedom Caucus member, informed CNN that “in some unspecified time in the future” McCarthy wanted to step apart and let now-Majority Chief Steve Scalise run. “What I’ve requested is that if Kevin can’t get there, that he step apart and provides Steve an opportunity to do it,” Buck mentioned.

The environment on the Home flooring on Wednesday was buzzing by the second vote. Whereas Tuesday’s session was comparatively calm, the opposing factions gathered on the ground to carry talks in actual time in between the speaker votes.

On the similar time the Home was taking vote after vote for speaker, Biden was talking in Kentucky at an occasion with Senate GOP Chief Mitch McConnell selling the 2021 infrastructure invoice McConnell helped move. Biden’s speech gave the White Home – and Senate Republicans – a break up display that laid naked the huge distinction with the Home Republican infighting.

“It’s embarrassing for the nation,” Biden mentioned of the Home chaos.

President Joe Biden greets Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell on arrival at Cincinnati Northern Kentucky International Airport in Hebron, Kentucky, on January 4, 2023.

After the sixth vote ended with an similar end result because the fifth, the Home adjourned for a number of hours. The break gave the 2 sides extra time to barter, and a number of the hardliners mentioned they noticed some progress.

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A bunch of Republicans decamped to the workplace of Minnesota Rep. Tom Emmer, the brand new Home majority whip. Bishop mentioned issues had modified over the previous couple of hours and he was “inspired” by the talks.

Nevertheless it wasn’t clear that the assembly would result in a breakthrough. Gaetz pledged that the McCarthy dissenters might proceed to carry votes “till the cherry blossoms fall off the timber.” Boebert mentioned the “boats are burned” in relation to any future negotiations with McCarthy.

When the Home gaveled again into session, Republicans moved to adjourn for the evening somewhat than take one other failed speaker vote. GOP leaders had been hopeful that the continued talks would persuade McCarthy’s opponents to vote for adjournment, however with simply 4 votes to spare, the roll-call vote was tight.

All Democrats and 4 McCarthy opponents voted in opposition to adjourning, and the movement was at risk of failing – which might have pressured the Home to maintain voting for speaker. However two Democrats weren’t in attendance, and the Home clerk gaveled an finish to the vote, 216 to 214.

McCarthy had not less than yet one more day to attempt to get his detractors to sure.

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Rep. Jim Jordan talks with  McCarthy in the House chamber as the House meets on January 4, 2023, to elect a speaker.

On Wednesday night, McCarthy agreed to a number of key concessions to attempt to flip not less than a few of his opponents.

McCarthy had been in talks with Roy, who informed GOP leaders he thought he might get 10 holdouts to return together with him. McCarthy additionally met individually Wednesday night with freshman members who voted in opposition to him.

In maybe the most important concession, McCarthy agreed to permit only one member to name for a vote to oust a sitting speaker. McCarthy had initially proposed a five-member threshold, down from present convention guidelines that require half of the GOP to name for such a vote.

McCarthy additionally pledged to permit extra members of the Freedom Caucus to serve on the Guidelines Committee and to carry votes for payments that had been priorities for the holdouts, together with on border safety and time period limits.

In one other signal of a breakthrough, a McCarthy-aligned tremendous PAC, the Congressional Management Fund, agreed to not get entangled in open primaries in protected seats – one of many calls for conservatives had requested for however McCarthy had resisted.

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“I believe we’re making progress,” McCarthy mentioned Thursday morning as he arrived on the Capitol for a 3rd day of votes.

The GOP dissidents additionally sounded a optimistic be aware. “We’re making some progress,” Bishop informed CNN as he was strolling into a gathering Thursday morning with different GOP hardliners.

McCarthy leaves a private meeting room off the floor at the US Capitol on January 5, 2023, as he negotiates with lawmakers in his own party to become the speaker of the House.

Regardless of the optimistic chatter Thursday morning, the Home gaveled into session at midday with out a deal. And whereas McCarthy’s allies had thought of making an attempt to postpone further votes so a deal might be finalized, McCarthy lacked the votes to adjourn.

As a substitute, lawmakers adopted two tracks into the night: taking vote after vote on the Home flooring for speaker, whereas negotiations continued behind closed doorways.

The result didn’t change with every flooring vote. Whereas the GOP holdouts shifted who obtained their anti-McCarthy votes – Boebert nominated Rep. Kevin Hern of Oklahoma on vote No. 9, and Gaetz nominated Trump on the Eleventh poll – none shifted to McCarthy’s facet.

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Twenty-one Republicans didn’t help McCarthy on poll quantity seven. Identical with eight, 9, 10 and 11.

Behind the scenes, nevertheless, the holdouts who weren’t within the “by no means Kevin” camp continued speaking with McCarthy and his allies, inching nearer to a deal.

By the early night Thursday, there was a suggestion “on paper.” Three of the important thing negotiators – Emmer, Roy and Donalds – huddled with McCarthy in his ceremonial workplace, following a session in Emmer’s workplace for one group to evaluate the written settlement to interrupt the stalemate. One other group huddled within the member’s eating room on the primary flooring of the Capitol to debate a separate a part of the written deal.

“We’re nonetheless working by it,” Roy mentioned leaving Emmer’s workplace.

“Every assembly is extra optimistic than the final. And that’s a really good signal,” Rep. Patrick McHenry, a key negotiator on McCarthy’s facet, informed reporters.

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The discussions in Emmer’s workplace continued late into the night Thursday in an try and get to sure. Chipotle was wheeled in for dinner.

One issue complicating the talks was a handful Republicans had been anticipated to depart Washington attributable to varied household points. Buck left Thursday afternoon for a deliberate medical process. Rep. Wesley Hunt flew again to Texas to be together with his spouse and new child, who needed to spend a while within the neonatal intensive care unit.

McCarthy reacts after losing the 14th vote in the House chamber as the House meets on January 6, 2023, for the fourth day to elect a speaker and convene the 118th Congress.

On Friday morning, Home Democrats marked the second anniversary of the January 6, 2021, assault on the steps of the Capitol. Only one Republican attended: Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania.

Republicans huddled as soon as once more as a convention for the primary time because the heated Tuesday assembly. This time, McCarthy organized a convention name, which might be extra simply managed, somewhat than an in-person session. On the decision, McCarthy informed his convention {that a} deal had not but been finalized however that progress had been made. He particularly thanked Roy, a key holdout, for his position.

Earlier than the Home gaveled again into session, McCarthy predicted he would win over some holdovers, although there have been nonetheless causes for him to be pessimistic the end line was in sight.

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“I’ll be voting for Byron Donalds,” Norman informed CNN on his technique to the ground, saying he was nonetheless reviewing the rising settlement.

The twelfth vote for speaker started the identical because the 11 earlier than it. Rep. Andy Biggs of Arizona was the primary Republican to vote in opposition to McCarthy. Then Bishop, the following McCarthy opponent within the roll name, rose to forged his vote.

“McCarthy,” Bishop mentioned, prompting his fellow Republicans to leap from their seats with a standing ovation.

Freshman Rep. John Brecheen of Oklahoma was the following to flip, prompting one other spherical of Republican cheers. By the tip of the roll name, 14 holdouts, together with Norman, had known as McCarthy’s title. He was nonetheless in need of the votes he wanted for speaker, however the tide had turned. Solely seven McCarthy opponents remained.

On the thirteenth vote, the GOP chief peeled off yet one more detractor, Rep. Andy Harris of Maryland. The Home voted to adjourn till 10 p.m. ET – offering time each for the 2 lacking McCarthy supporters time to return to Washington and for McCarthy’s allies to show up the warmth on the remaining holdouts.

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McCarthy wanted two extra votes. McCarthy and his allies targeted on Rep. Matt Rosendale of Montana and freshman Rep. Eli Crane of Arizona both to help McCarthy or vote current, decreasing the vote threshold to win a majority.

There have been a number of avenues to a majority and the speakership for McCarthy. The only path was to peel off two extra votes and hit 218. But when McCarthy’s remaining GOP opponents wouldn’t vote for him, the California might nonetheless get hold of a majority if three of the six detractors voted “current.” Along with Rosendale and Crane, McCarthy’s allies appeared to Boebert as a possible current vote.

Gaetz and Boebert appeared to acknowledge the tip of the speaker struggle was close to earlier than the Home returned to session, sitting for a joint interview with Fox’s Sean Hannity and expressing imprecise optimisms for the foundations adjustments the holdouts had received.

However because the Home gaveled again into session, Gaetz went to McCarthy’s senior aide and requested whether or not the Home might adjourn till Monday. Gaetz provide was rejected, resulting in the ultimate chaos over the course of the 14th and fifteenth votes for speaker.

Early Saturday morning, following 14 losses and greater than 84 hours after the start of the 118th Congress, the Home clerk lastly introduced McCarthy was elected Home speaker.

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Earlier than the chaos over the ultimate vote, McCarthy earlier Friday had sounded an optimistic be aware that the prolonged struggle over the gavel would truly assist Republicans. “So that is the nice half. As a result of it took this lengthy, now we’ve realized the way to govern,” McCarthy mentioned. “So now we’ll be capable of get the job carried out.”

Gaetz, nevertheless, instructed the historic struggle would have a special influence on McCarthy’s speakership. Because of the concessions, Gaetz argued, McCarthy shall be governing in a “straitjacket.”

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Video: Our Photographer’s Look Inside New York’s Migrant Shelters

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Video: Our Photographer’s Look Inside New York’s Migrant Shelters

Just over 225,000 migrants have entered New York City since 2022, and more than $6 billion has been spent on a hodgepodge of shelters that morphed into the largest system of emergency housing for migrants in the country. Todd Heisler, a photographer for The New York Times, gained exclusive access to shelters across the city, documenting the experience through the eyes of those living there.

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Russia aims to be global leader in nuclear power plant construction

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Russia aims to be global leader in nuclear power plant construction

Stay informed with free updates

Russia is building more than 10 nuclear units abroad as it looks to tap into rising energy demand driven by artificial intelligence and developing markets, according to an envoy of President Vladimir Putin.

Moscow is doubling down on efforts to boost its global influence by expanding its nuclear fleet, with plants under construction in countries including Bangladesh, China, Egypt, India, Iran and Turkey. Russia has enhanced its role as a major nuclear energy provider even as the oil and gas sector has faced heavy sanctions after its invasion of Ukraine.

Boris Titov, the Kremlin’s special representative for international co-operation in sustainability, said the country wanted to cement its position as “one of the biggest builders of new nuclear plants in the world”. 

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He said Russia expected strong demand for nuclear power from developing countries eager for cleaner sources of energy, as well as from technology companies harnessing AI in data centres. The International Atomic Energy Agency forecast this year that world nuclear generating capacity would increase by 155 per cent to 950 gigawatts by 2050.

“We are building more than 10 different units around the world,” Titov told the Financial Times. “We need a lot of energy. We will not be able to provide this energy without using . . . nuclear. We know that it’s safe . . . it’s not emitting [greenhouse gas emissions], so it is very clean.”

Boris Titov, the Kremlin’s special representative for international co-operation in sustainability © Maksim Konstantinov/SOPA/LightRocket/Getty Images

Russia’s growing overseas nuclear portfolio, including reactor construction, fuel provision and other services, spans 54 countries, according to an article published last year in the journal Nature Energy by the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs. 

Titov pointed to Hungary’s Paks 2 plant as well as units in Bangladesh and Turkey. Russia is also expected to build a plant with small modular reactors in Uzbekistan, while it signed an agreement with Burkina Faso’s ruling junta in 2023. The FT reported this year that Russia was involved in more than a third of new reactors being built worldwide.

Western governments have attempted to push back against Russia’s nuclear prominence, with the US banning imports of Russian-enriched uranium this May. 

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With the exception of Hungary, most eastern European countries have signed contracts for fuel developed to fit Soviet-era reactors by US company Westinghouse since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. 

As part of a wider push to meet an indicative target of being free from Russian fuel imports by 2027, Dan Jørgensen, the new EU commissioner for energy, said that he wanted to examine the “full nuclear supply chain”. 

But Hungarian premier Viktor Orbán and Slovakian prime minister Robert Fico have said they would block any steps to restrict Russia’s civilian nuclear energy industry.

After meeting Putin on Sunday, Fico said in a post on Facebook that potential sanctions against Russia would be “financially damaging and endanger the production of electricity in nuclear power plants in Slovakia, which is unacceptable”.

But fears that Russia could create critical nuclear fuel shortages for the bloc, as it did for gas in 2022, are overstated, one senior EU official said.

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“Rosatom has a vested interest to be reliable,” they added.

A more immediate problem is US sanctions on Gazprombank, a major conduit for energy payments to Russia. The measures exempted civil nuclear energy except for Hungary’s Paks 2 plant. Hungary’s foreign minister Péter Szijjártó has called the singling out of the new plant an “entirely political decision”.

Many developing countries are looking at nuclear to meet clean energy requirements, offering more potential markets for Russia.

Nik Nazmi Nik Ahmad, Malaysia’s natural resources and environmental sustainability minister, told the Financial Times that the country was “studying the introduction of nuclear”. 

He said all the “major players” were “talking to the [Malaysian] government” on potential projects, without referring to specific countries.

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Speaking at the UN COP29 climate summit in Azerbaijan in November, Jake Levine, senior climate and energy director at the US National Security Council, said Washington was concerned about countries turning to China or Russia for nuclear power.

Global competitiveness in the industry was a “huge issue”, he added.

Additional reporting by Anastasia Stognei, Polina Ivanova and Raphael Minder

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Where climate change meets business, markets and politics. Explore the FT’s coverage here.

Are you curious about the FT’s environmental sustainability commitments? Find out more about our science-based targets here

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Why Trump's tariffs on Mexico would mean higher avocado prices at the grocery store

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Why Trump's tariffs on Mexico would mean higher avocado prices at the grocery store

Avocados grow on trees in an orchard in the municipality of Ario de Rosales, Michoacan state, Mexico, on Sept. 21, 2023. Tariffs on Mexican imports would have a big effect on avocados in the U.S.

Alfredo Estrella/AFP via Getty Images


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Alfredo Estrella/AFP via Getty Images

Of all the products that would be affected by President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs on Mexico, avocados stand out: 90% of avocados consumed in the U.S. are imported. And almost all of those imports come from Mexico.

Trump has said he plans to impose a blanket tariff of 25% on imports from Mexico and Canada, along with an additional 10% tax on goods from China.

It’s unclear whether the tariffs will be implemented or if they will serve merely as a negotiating tactic.

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If enacted, they could have multiple effects on the avocado industry.

“Broad tariffs, like what’s being proposed, is not something that we’ve seen” before, says David Ortega, a food economist and professor at Michigan State University. “We had the trade war with China back in 2018 that affected steel and aluminum, but when it comes to food, these types of policy proposals are not something that are very common or that we’ve seen recently.”

With one of the biggest guacamole-eating events of the year — the Super Bowl — approaching in February, here’s what to know about avocados, tariffs, and why so many avocados are grown in Mexico.

Prices will rise

Avocados are displayed in a grocery store in Washington, D.C., on June 14, 2022. Experts predict avocado prices will rise in the event of tariffs on Mexican imports.

Avocados are displayed in a grocery store in Washington, D.C., on June 14, 2022. Experts predict avocado prices will rise in the event of tariffs on Mexican imports.

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First, a 25% tariff on imports from Mexico would lead to higher avocado prices at the grocery store.

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But estimating just how much higher is hard to say. It’s possible that producers and importers will absorb some of the costs to keep prices down and stay more competitive.

Ortega says there could be “pretty significant increases in the price of avocados. Maybe not the full 25%, but pretty close, given that there’s very little substitute ability with regards to where we would source avocados.”

But he cautions that because the tariffs apply only to the product’s value at the border, and not to other costs like transportation and distribution within the U.S., prices may not go up by the full 25%.

Regardless of these potential price increases, however, people in the U.S. love their avocados and they’re willing to pay more. Avocado consumption tripled in the U.S. between 2000 and 2021.

“Given that avocado is a staple of our consumption here, I would say that the elasticity is not very high, meaning that even with a big increase in price, consumption is not going to change that much,” says Luis Ribera, a professor and extension economist in the agricultural economics department at Texas A&M University.

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Why Mexico

A farmer works at an avocado plantation at the Los Cerritos avocado group ranch in Ciudad Guzman, state of Jalisco, Mexico, on Feb. 10, 2023. Mexico provides 90% of the avocados consumed in the U.S.

A farmer works at an avocado plantation at the Los Cerritos avocado group ranch in Ciudad Guzman, state of Jalisco, Mexico, on Feb. 10, 2023. Most of the avocados consumed in the U.S. are grown in Mexico.

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Mexico is the biggest producer of avocados in the world and exported $3.3 billion worth of avocados in 2023. A study funded by the industry estimated that avocado production supports 78,000 permanent jobs and 310,000 seasonal jobs in Mexico.

“It’s a very important business in Mexico, very lucrative,” Ribera says.

Mexico emerged as the largest foreign supplier of fruits and vegetables to the U.S. for a few reasons, he says. One: Its proximity to the U.S. market. With a perishable product, closer is better. Peru is the second-largest source of foreign avocados in the U.S., but its greater distance means avocados need to be shipped farther.

The other reasons for Mexico are favorable weather that allows for year-round production of avocados and access to cheap labor, according to Ribera.

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Avocados are grown in the U.S. too, mostly in California and to a lesser extent Florida and Hawaii, but U.S. growers can’t meet Americans’ big appetite. Avocado production in the U.S. has declined, even as Americans grew fonder of the green fruit, according to the USDA.

California avocado growers have faced droughts and wildfires in recent years, making it difficult to offer the year-round availability that American consumers crave, Ortega says. In addition, land is expensive and water is limited.

If the goal of implementing tariffs is to force avocado production to move somewhere besides Mexico, that isn’t easy.

It takes about eight years for avocado trees to produce fruit, according to the USDA. “This is not a product that you can just simply plant more of this season and you get more of in a few months,” Ortega says.

Other countries where the U.S. sources avocados — Peru, the Dominican Republic and Chile — “just simply don’t have the production capacity to replace Mexico’s supply,” he says.

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Tariffs could impact the organic avocado market

Tariffs could also alter the market dynamic when it comes to organic vs. conventional foods.

If prices rise across the board, consumers who typically buy organic avocados might switch to conventional ones to save money. Organic produce makes up about 15% of total fruit and vegetable sales in the U.S., according to the Organic Trade Association, which represents hundreds of organic businesses and thousands of farmers.

“My hypothesis is that the price of conventional products would increase more than the premium organic product,” Ortega says. He reasons that because people who are used to buying organic avocados would move to buy conventional ones, “that in turn increases the demand and would make prices rise more for that category.”

Matthew Dillon, co-CEO of the Organic Trade Association, says those in the organic food industry are looking at diversifying their supply chains away from Mexico, but there’s a three-year transition period required for farmers to switch from producing conventional to organic produce.

“Supply chains are not incredibly elastic in organic. It takes more time to pivot and change when there’s a supply chain disruption. And tariffs are in some ways a form of supply chain disruption for a company, because it creates unpredictable pricing,” he says.

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Together with grocery prices that have gone up more than 26% since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, Trump’s plans for tariffs on Mexico, along with mass deportations, could create “a perfect storm of high inflationary pressure on the organic sector,” Dillon says.

Furthermore, retaliatory tariffs from Mexico could have their own impacts.

Avocado producers face uncertainty as Trump’s return looms

Avocados in boxes are pictured at a packing plant in the municipality of Ario de Rosales, Michoacan state, Mexico, on Sept. 21, 2023.

Avocados in boxes are pictured at a packing plant in the municipality of Ario de Rosales, Michoacan state, Mexico, on Sept. 21, 2023.

Alfredo Estrella/AFP via Getty Images


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Alfredo Estrella/AFP via Getty Images

Aside from the threat of tariffs, the avocado industry has other challenges to deal with: climate change presents several problems, and avocados require a large amount of water to grow. Meanwhile, environmentalists say some avocado growers are cutting down forests to plant avocados.

Producers also face extortion from criminal gangs in Mexico.

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And now with Trump’s tariff threats, producers are left to wonder about their next steps.

“Producers, they react to market fundamentals,” Ribera says. For example, people can foresee how bad weather in Mexico would affect avocado prices. Producers and retailers will adjust to higher and lower demand.

“The issue with a tariff is it’s not a market fundamental — it’s a policy. It’s a political move,” he says. “It could happen or it could not happen, or it could be increased or it could be decreased, you know. So it’s hard for the whole supply chain to adjust.”

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