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French election polls: the race for the presidency

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France will vote over two rounds in April on whether or not to offer President Emmanuel Macron a second five-year time period or entrust a unique candidate with the presidency in an unpredictable election that might mark a shift to the suitable in French politics.

The primary spherical of voting, which incorporates all candidates who get sufficient signatures to run, takes place on April 10.

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The 2 contenders with essentially the most votes will then face a showdown on April 24. Primarily based on the most recent polls, Macron shall be a type of within the run-off, however the different place appears up for grabs.

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The winner’s prospects after securing the presidency will rely on one other set of voting: legislative elections in June. Securing a majority among the many 577 députés within the Nationwide Meeting, the decrease home, shall be essential to have the ability to enact insurance policies. A president whose supporters don’t management the meeting faces a probably tough and unproductive “cohabitation” with hostile legislators.

Emmanuel Macron

Emmanuel Macron, the centrist incumbent, comfortably leads the first-round polls. France’s robust post-pandemic financial restoration will most likely enhance his scores. His marketing campaign may even concentrate on his efforts to liberalise the economic system. However Macron should persuade voters he’s greater than a president of the wealthy and that he may be trusted with immigration, a key battleground within the debate.

 Valérie Pécresse

Valérie Pécresse,

Valérie Pécresse, elected chief of the Île-de-France area round Paris, gained the nomination for the centre-right Les Républicains. Polls recommend she might pose a critical problem to Macron in a run-off. Self-described as two-thirds Angela Merkel and one-third Margaret Thatcher, Pécresse has taken a tough line on immigration, needs to slash public spending and struggle sexual harassment. To turn out to be France’s first feminine president, she should win over centrist voters and conservatives who’re flirting with candidates from the far proper.

Marine Le Pen

Marine Le Pen

Regardless of Pécresse’s stable efficiency to date, polls recommend it may very well be Marine Le Pen of the far-right Rassemblement Nationwide who will face Macron within the ultimate spherical, as she did in 2017. Le Pen’s makes an attempt to “detoxify” her social gathering’s racist picture, nevertheless, might put her in a difficult spot: hardline rightwingers would possibly really feel extra at house with far-right rival Eric Zemmour, whereas Pécresse and Macron are higher positioned to seize centre-right votes.

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Eric Zemmour

Éric Zemmour

Eric Zemmour, an anti-immigration tv polemicist lately convicted of hate speech, is one other contender for the rightwing vote. Rising from nowhere to second place within the polls final autumn, he has shaken up the marketing campaign and provoked tensions by calling for “immigration zero”. However his help has waned since he declared his candidacy in November, and he’s now polling narrowly behind each Le Pen and Pécresse.

Jean-Luc Mélenchon

Jean-Luc Mélenchon

Jean-Luc Mélenchon, a leftwing veteran who based La France Insoumise, or “France Unbowed”, after defecting from the Socialist social gathering, is the best-supported candidate on the left of French politics. He needs to decrease the retirement age, legalise hashish and welcome migrants. With France’s fractured left unable to unite behind one candidate, nevertheless, his possibilities of reaching the second spherical look slim.

Yannick Jadot

Yannick Jadot

Yannick Jadot, an MEP and chief of the Inexperienced social gathering Europe Ecologie-Les Verts, calls himself a realistic environmentalist. He led the Greens to 3rd place within the EU elections in 2019 and like Macron he refuses to be branded as from the left or proper.

Fabien Roussel

Fabien Roussel

Fabien Roussel, a journalist, grew to become common secretary of the French Communist social gathering in 2018. He favours re-industrialisation, a shorter working week and retirement at 60, however has additionally discomfited some on the environmentally-minded left — and attracted bons vivants from the Socialists — by arguing cheerfully {that a} increased minimal wage would permit individuals to get pleasure from “good wine, good meat and good cheese” to profit the economic system and enhance consuming habits.

Anne Hidalgo

Anne Hidalgo

Anne Hidalgo, Socialist mayor of Paris since 2014, is finest recognized for her efforts to rid massive elements of the French capital of automobiles, successful her followers internationally however enemies in Paris and its suburbs. However her ballot numbers are within the low single digits and have lately declined, suggesting her hopes for the presidency are distant.

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Christiane Taubira

Christiane Taubira

Christiane Taubira, justice minister in François Hollande’s Socialist authorities, entered the race after successful an internet “individuals’s main” organised by leftwing activists. Her rivals have ignored that vote and refused to unite behind her. She has represented the French territory of Guiana in South America within the Nationwide Meeting for practically twenty years and is taken into account an LGBT icon for her work to legalise same-sex marriage. She withdrew from the race on March 2 after failing to safe the five hundred sponsors amongst elected officers required to turn out to be a candidate.

Sources and Strategies

At every second in time, the FT ballot of polls consists of the latest voting intention ballot from ten pollsters, as compiled by NSPpolls, Europe Elects and FT journalists. The typical of their outcomes is weighted to offer more moderen polls larger affect.

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Video: How Blast Waves Can Injure the Brain

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Video: How Blast Waves Can Injure the Brain

A growing number of scientists suggest that troops are getting brain injuries from firing heavy weapons. An old party trick involving a beer bottle explains the physics of what happens when a blast wave hits the brain, and the damage it can cause.

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Dealmaker Steven Klinsky quietly hits home runs away from ’80s limelight

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Dealmaker Steven Klinsky quietly hits home runs away from ’80s limelight

Dealmaker Steven Klinsky had a front-row seat to the most operatic takeover drama Wall Street has ever seen, the knives-out multibillion-dollar battle for control of RJR Nabisco.

From that 1980s contest he learned a formative lesson: stay far away from the highly leveraged takeovers orchestrated by swashbuckling debt junkies. The results have been a quiet success.

His New Mountain Capital has focused on building up mid-sized companies in predictable industries using modest amounts of debt. Returns have been robust and investors are rewarding the results, with the New York-based group raising $15.4bn for its seventh buyout fund, exceeding a $12bn target set last year — and bucking a recent trend of poor industry-wide fundraising.

New Mountain joins private equity groups such as CVC Capital Partners, Clayton, Dubilier & Rice, Warburg Pincus and EQT that have exceeded their fund targets at a time when many rivals have fallen short of their goals.

It is part of a rare successful streak of the past few years among buyout groups that steered away from pursuing peak-valuation deals during the frenzied markets of 2021 and instead consistently returned cash to investors.

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“I preach against the old private equity model of 40 years ago where people think you borrow as much as you can, go play golf, and see if it all worked out in five years,” Klinsky said in an interview with the Financial Times.

The group is known for its ability to build small businesses in sectors including healthcare services, software and manufacturing into industry leaders by pushing their products into new markets, or by identifying acquisitions.

“New Mountain’s judicious use of leverage and its focus on building businesses in faster-growing parts of the economy have insulated the firm from the brunt of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes,” said Maxwell Snyder, vice-president of alternatives at NewEdge Wealth, an investor in its funds.

Fundraising for the private equity industry slowed dramatically in 2022 when interest rates rose quickly and public stock valuations fell, causing large investors to become overexposed to private assets and pull back from investing in new funds.

The industry’s challenges have been exacerbated by a slowdown in dealmaking and initial public offering activity that has made it hard for PE groups to exit their investments even as public markets reach new highs. In 2023, buyout firms distributed the lowest amount of cash versus what they called from investors since the 2008 financial crisis, according to Bain & Co.

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New Mountain, however, has returned more capital than it has invested in recent years. Since January 2021, the firm has sold more than 20 companies, returning well over $10bn in cash to its investors because of successful deals such as Signify Health, a healthcare IT company.

Its 2017-era buyout fund returned 1.16 times what investors had committed by the end of 2023, making it the rare fund from that year to have returned a surplus of cash to investors, according to documents published by public pension funds. When including the fund’s remaining unsold investments, it has generated a 2.4 times gain.

New Mountain’s assets under management have more than doubled to $55bn since 2018, when Klinsky sold a minority stake in the group to Blackstone that cemented his billionaire status. The investment allowed him and his partners to invest $1.4bn into their new fund. It has also given them the financial heft to remain private and resist seeking a tie-up with a larger asset manager, Klinsky added.

As a partner in his early 30s at Forstmann Little, an early pioneer of the $4tn private equity industry, Klinsky became a top lieutenant to Ted Forstmann as the prolific financier studied a bid for RJR Nabisco. It was the seminal deal of the go-go 1980s, later chronicled in the book Barbarians at the Gate.

Klinsky had a memorable bit part in the saga.

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Ross Johnson, the chief executive of RJR, had approached Forstmann about teaming up as a “white knight” to counter a takeover effort led by KKR. After hearing Johnson’s pitch, Forstmann consulted Klinsky, a trusted number cruncher, to see whether it was workable. “I think he’s totally insane,” Klinsky is quoted as saying in the book.

Forstmann never bid on RJR, which was sold to KKR for $29bn, but quickly became an emblem of the private equity industry’s hubris as it struggled under the crippling weight of its takeover debt.

When he left Forstmann Little in 1999 to create his own private equity outfit, Klinsky decided on a different approach.

Many of the companies New Mountain buys are family-owned businesses that have never made an acquisition or built operations outside of the US. In many deals, New Mountain forges novel corporate strategies.

The style has helped the firm earn large windfalls at a time when many rivals are contending with an industry reckoning.

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In 2017 New Mountain made a push into so-called “value-added care”, with companies focused on preventive health measures to lower costs. It acquired and merged two small companies in the sector for less than $500mn and renamed the group Signify Health. Last year, New Mountain sold the company to CVS for $8bn.

It also had success in technology investments. Klinsky’s firm acquired a small logistics software company called RedPrairie in 2010 for $550mn. Under new management, the company plotted acquisitions and built artificial intelligence tools that propelled it into a leader in identifying supply chain bottlenecks. In 2021, it sold the rebranded company, Blue Yonder, to Panasonic for $8bn, generating more than $5bn for its investors and employees at the company.

Another big windfall has been Avantor, a pharmaceutical chemicals company that New Mountain acquired from Mallinckrodt for less than $300mn in 2010. Klinsky’s firm pushed Avantor into specialised chemicals that earn higher margins. In 2019, it listed Avantor, which now trades at a $15bn valuation. New Mountain has earned gains exceeding $3bn, according to the FT’s calculations.

Klinsky said he prefers investing in these midsized companies partially because they offer many more growth opportunities for his 200-plus dealmakers and consultants to pursue.

“[A] $500mn company could be a leader in an important niche industry, but there are so many things that the management hasn’t done yet . . . If you are a $10bn company, you probably have done almost everything smart there is to do,” he said. Such businesses are easier to sell to corporate buyers and other buyout firms, he added.

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Though private equity is under pressure from the slowdown in dealmaking, Klinsky does not see a coming industry washout. He said the sector has become more professional with less-cavalier capital structures.

“I don’t see a hard landing or crisis in private equity,” he said. “The companies are much less leveraged than they were in the old days. In 1981, a buyout had 19 parts debt and just one part equity. So people threw away the keys on bad deals.”

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Rescuers try to keep dolphins away from Cape Cod shallows after a mass stranding

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Rescuers try to keep dolphins away from Cape Cod shallows after a mass stranding

A trained volunteer attempts to herd stranded dolphins into deeper waters on Friday in Wellfleet, Mass. As many as 125 Atlantic white-sided dolphins became stranded Friday on Cape Cod and at least 10 died, prompting an intensive rescue effort, according to the International Fund for Animal Welfare.

Stacey Hedman/International Fund for Animal Welfare/AP


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Stacey Hedman/International Fund for Animal Welfare/AP

WELLFLEET, Mass. — Animal rescuers were trying to keep dozens of dolphins away from shallow waters around Cape Cod on Saturday after 125 of the creatures stranded themselves a day earlier.

Teams in Massachusetts found one group of 10 Atlantic white-sided dolphins swimming in a dangerously shallow area at dawn on Saturday, and managed to herd them out into deeper water, said the International Fund for Animal Welfare.

Scouts also found a second group of 25 dolphins swimming close to the shore near Eastham, the organization said, with herding efforts there ongoing as the tide dropped throughout the morning.

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Ten dolphins died during the stranding Friday at The Gut — or Great Island — in Wellfleet, at the Herring River.

The organization said it was the largest mass-stranding it had dealt with on the Cape during its 26-year history in the area. The Gut is the site of frequent strandings, which experts believe is due in part to its hook-like shape and extreme tidal fluctuations.

Misty Niemeyer, the organization’s stranding coordinator, said rescuers faced many challenges Friday including difficult mud conditions and the dolphins being spread out over a large area.

“It was a 12-hour exhausting response in the unrelenting sun, but the team was able to overcome the various challenges and give the dolphins their best chance at survival,” Niemeyer said in a statement.

The team started out on foot, herding the creatures into deeper waters and then used three small boats equipped with underwater pingers, according to the organization.

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Those helping with the rescue effort include more than 25 staff from the organization and 100 trained volunteers. The group also had the support of Whale and Dolphin Conservation, the Center for Coastal Studies, AmeriCorps of Cape Cod and the New England Aquarium.

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