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Fertiliser inflation presages a global food supply crisis

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Fertiliser inflation presages a global food supply crisis

We all know that the warfare in Ukraine has led to sharp will increase in costs for each meals and gas. This in flip has sparked concern that we might even see a repeat of the famine and meals riots that befell in 22 nations within the years following the worldwide monetary disaster, brought on by an ideal storm of rising commodities costs.

Whereas US wheat farmers needs to be in a very good place to assist buffer a few of the ache from agricultural disruptions in Ukraine and Russia, they’re apprehensive about inflation of one other kind — in fertiliser.

The warfare is a part of that drawback, too. Russia was till just lately the second largest international exporter of fertiliser to the US, offering 10 per cent of the entire provide. However it’s not the one motive costs are rising.

As a March 11 launch from the US Division of Agriculture put it: “Fertiliser costs have greater than doubled since final yr because of many elements together with [Vladimir] Putin’s worth hike, a restricted provide of the related minerals and excessive power prices, excessive world demand and agricultural commodity costs, reliance on fertiliser imports, and lack of competitors within the fertiliser trade.”

It’s that final level that has many farmers in America’s personal breadbasket indignant. “Farmers listed here are already making a call to use much less fertiliser due to costs,” says Joe Maxwell, a Missouri farmer and co-founder of the Farm Motion community, an alliance of farmers, ranchers and meals system staff, most of whom work outdoors of the massive company agricultural sector. “That may imply decrease manufacturing, and that’s in flip one of many issues that might spark world instability.” Company focus is, in Maxwell’s view, one of many systemic elements fuelling this.

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A Farm Motion report launched in January famous that whereas many areas of American agriculture have a focus ratio by which the market share of the highest 4 firms exceeds 40 per cent (the extent at which economists say that market abuses begin to happen extra ceaselessly), fertiliser has skilled a few of the highest ranges of consolidation up to now 25 years.

Because the report places it: “Between 1980 and the mid-2000s, low commodity costs and excessive enter bills led to a drop in demand. Throughout this time interval, we noticed the variety of fertiliser corporations decline from 46 to 13. As the value of pure fuel (from which nitrogen-based fertilisers are derived) dropped and demand elevated, this sample of consolidation continued.” Right this moment, simply two firms, Nutrien and the Mosaic Firm, provide the whole lot of North America with potash, a potassium-based fertiliser.

Fertiliser bills have elevated far past the degrees that agricultural simulation fashions would have predicted. Farmers say worth gouging is a part of the issue. Nutrien, for instance, reported a 51 per cent enhance in the price of items for nitrogen manufacturing (a key fertiliser enter) within the third quarter of 2021, whereas gross manufacturing margins have been up 680 per cent over the identical interval. The corporate declined to remark.

These and different such examples have elevated the already deafening requires monopoly actions within the US. On March 11, the USDA put out a name for public touch upon anti-competitive market practices in fertiliser, seed and agricultural inputs. It additionally introduced a $250mn grant programme beginning this summer season which can “assist impartial, progressive and sustainable American fertiliser manufacturing to provide America farmers”.

As agriculture secretary Tom Vilsack mentioned within the announcement: “Latest provide chain disruptions from the worldwide pandemic to Putin’s unprovoked warfare in opposition to Ukraine have proven simply how necessary it’s to speculate on this essential hyperlink within the agricultural provide chains right here at residence.”

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Geopolitical instability will definitely result in extra “native for native” manufacturing and requires insourcing — for causes that vary from worries about cross-border commerce hitches, to the rising value of power for transport and the emissions related to it.

However antitrust actions might be as a lot about curbing home gamers as international ones.

Fertiliser makers — to not point out the large 4 beef packers at the moment being probed by the justice division and the USDA — embrace each. “It’s fairly clear that we have to make a elementary shift in how these markets work,” says Andy Inexperienced, a senior adviser for truthful and aggressive markets at USDA.

That may require a diverse method, together with all the things from antitrust motion and assist for smaller gamers (such because the $1bn fund for impartial meat and poultry packers) to lowering monetary hypothesis in commodities (derivatives buying and selling performed an enormous function in post-crisis meals and gas inflation).

It’ll additionally require basically reconsidering how we eat. One motive why farmers require growing quantities of fertiliser is that industrial agriculture has put such big calls for on the planet. A current UN report, which referred to as for extra various farming and ranching strategies, warned that almost a 3rd of the world’s crop fields can be unsuitable for meals manufacturing by the tip of this century due to the local weather change that’s itself brought about largely by the emissions-heavy farming strategies of Large Meals.

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It’s an unappetising thought, to say the least.

rana.foroohar@ft.com

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Stick-Wielding Man Kills 2 Homeless People in Miami and Injures 2 Others

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Stick-Wielding Man Kills 2 Homeless People in Miami and Injures 2 Others

A man with a stick attacked four homeless people in downtown Miami early Thursday morning, killing two and injuring two others in what the police called a horrible “display of unprovoked violence.”

The man was seen attacking the people with a stick at 6 a.m., the Miami Police Department said in a statement. The police responded soon after calls came in and saw a man who matched the description that had been given. He ran off but was arrested after a brief foot chase, the police said.

Two of the homeless people died at the scene of the attack. The two people who were injured were taken to a nearby trauma center for treatment, the police said. Their conditions were not available.

The authorities did not immediately release the name of the man who was arrested, who is in his 30s. They said that they would disclose his identity and the charges he faces once the charges had been confirmed. The motive for the attack was not immediately clear, the police said.

The suspect does not have an arrest history in Miami, but he has had “minor criminal run-ins with the police” in New York, Manuel A. Morales, the chief of police for the Miami Police Department, said at a news conference on Thursday. The man’s place of residence was not immediately clear.

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“This is a horrible incident,” Chief Morales said.

The Miami-Dade County Homeless Trust, the county’s leading homeless outreach group, said in a statement that it was grieving the “senseless loss of these lives.” and thanked the police for their swift response.

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Rio Tinto and Glencore held talks about combining their businesses

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Rio Tinto and Glencore held talks about combining their businesses

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Rio Tinto and Glencore held talks last year about combining part or all of their businesses, in an indication of how the push by mining companies to secure metals needed for the energy transition has focused executives on large-scale deals.

The London-listed companies engaged in early-stage talks as recently as October, according to people familiar with the matter, but the discussions did not progress to a deal.

A full-blown merger between Rio and Glencore — which have market capitalisations of $103bn and $55bn, respectively — would rank among the largest-ever transactions in the mining industry.

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The talks between the two companies followed BHP’s failed £39bn bid for Anglo American last year, which prompted rivals to review strategic options.

BHP was interested in Anglo’s copper mines, among other assets, because the metal is used in renewable energy projects and electric vehicles.

Glencore and Rio declined to comment. Bloomberg first reported the companies had discussed combining their businesses.

Rio has been looking to boost its exposure to commodities including lithium and copper to offset weakness in the iron ore market as demand from China slows.

Glencore owns stakes in two significant copper mines — Collahuasi in Chile and Antamina in Peru — that would boost its production of the metal by almost 1mn tonnes a year and offer substantial expansion capacity, according to analysts.

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A potential deal with Glencore would be complicated by the Swiss-based company’s heavy exposure to thermal coal, a commodity Rio has abandoned in recent years.

Matthew Haupt, a portfolio manager at Wilson Asset Management, which owns shares in Rio, said the deal “didn’t make a lot of sense” given Rio’s efforts to get out of coal and invest in renewable energy to power its operations.

Glencore, which has a large commodity trading business and mining operations, has been debating the future of its coal business.

The company said in 2023 it would spin out its coal mines into a separate listed business but changed its mind last year and decided to retain them. 

Glyn Lawcock, an analyst with investment bank Barrenjoey, said coal assets could be spun out as a separate company as part of any agreement. He added there was little overlap between the two companies, meaning there were few synergy benefits from a merger and a deal would need to be justified by asset diversification and creating more scale.

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Ray David, a portfolio manager at Blackwattle Investment Partners, which owns Rio’s UK-listed shares, said Rio could fund an acquisition of Glencore by issuing shares in Australia, which would rebalance Rio’s share structure and close the value gap between its Australian and London listings.

Activist investors, including Blackwattle, have urged Rio to move its primary listing to Sydney — where its stock trades at a premium — to simplify share-based deals.

Rio’s Australia-quoted shares fell 1.8 per cent in early trading in Sydney on Friday, before climbing back to be down 0.5 per cent.

Demand for commodities required to decarbonise the global economy — such as copper, lithium and aluminium — has triggered a flurry of dealmaking activity in the mining industry over the past year.

Rio last year announced a $7bn deal to acquire Arcadium Lithium to increases its presence in metals used in batteries for electric vehicles. People close to the company said it was still digesting that transaction. 

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Rio previously rejected a takeover bid by Glencore in 2014.

Lawcock said the reaction from some Rio investors in Australia was one of unease given Glencore’s reputation for smart dealmaking.

“Shareholders have said I don’t want any of my companies sitting across the table from Glencore,” he said.

Blackwattle’s David said the fact talks had ended showed Rio remained cautious in a consolidating market.

“I suspect Glencore wants a high premium,” he said. “It is a positive sign [that talks ceased] as it shows Rio is being disciplined and aware of not destroying shareholder value. It would be easy to panic.”

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ICE estimates it would need $26.9 billion to enforce GOP deportation bill

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ICE estimates it would need .9 billion to enforce GOP deportation bill

Detainees do a virtual visit with their attorneys or asylum officers at the Port Isabel Detention Center hosted by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement Harlingen Enforcement and Removal Operations center on June 10, 2024 in Los Fresnos, Texas.

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The Homeland Security Department is warning lawmakers in Congress that a proposed immigration enforcement bill would cost $26.9 billion to implement in its first year and “would be impossible for [Immigration and Customs Enforcement] to execute within existing resources.”

The Senate is currently weighing amendments on the Laken Riley Act, which would direct federal immigration enforcement to detain and deport anyone in the U.S. without legal status if they have been charged, arrested or convicted of burglary, theft, larceny or shoplifting.

The bill passed the House last week with more Democratic support than the previous time the body voted on it. The bill has been broadly seen as a marker emphasizing Washington’s focus on immigration and border security as President-elect Donald Trump is about to be inaugurated.

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Some Senate Democrats are giving the measure a chance. This week, a bipartisan set of procedural votes opened up the measure to further debate and changes.

But the agency in charge of carrying out the potential new law warns that it may physically not be able to.

New estimates from an internal ICE document obtained and verified by NPR show that the agency would need 110,000 more detention beds and over 10,000 enforcement and removal operations personnel to increase apprehensions, detentions and removals. More than 7,000 additional attorneys and support personnel would also be needed to handle immigration proceedings, according to the estimates.

The document notes that a figure of $3.2 billion “has been shared widely as a cost estimate,” but calls that number incorrect because it “does not represent the full cost of implementation.” The document says the previous estimate — outlined in a three-page memo from ICE sent in response to questions from one of the bill’s House sponsors — was based “on only 60,000 beds.”

Sen. Katie Britt, R-Ala., who introduced the measure in the Senate, did not respond to a request for comment. The measure that passed in the House does not include funding for additional ICE staff or resources. ICE declined to comment on its ability to enforce the bill.

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Senate Democrats and Republicans are working through several proposed amendments to the measure. There is not a timeline yet for a final floor vote.

The bill is named after a Georgia nursing student who was killed last year by a Venezuelan man who was in the U.S. without legal status. Her death became a rallying cry for Republicans, who criticized the Biden administration’s approach to border security. Her assailant, Jose Ibarra, was convicted in November and sentenced to life in prison without parole. Ibarra had previously been charged with shoplifting in New York, leading Republicans to argue that if the law had been in place, Riley may still be alive.

The bill’s critics have said it could lead to innocent people being thrown into detention without due process, and note that research shows that immigrants commit less crimes than those born in the U.S.

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