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Federal Reserve should cut US interest rates ‘gradually’, says top official

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Federal Reserve should cut US interest rates ‘gradually’, says top official

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A top Federal Reserve official said the US central bank should revert to cutting interest rates “gradually”, after a larger than usual half-point reduction earlier this month.

St Louis Fed president Alberto Musalem said the US economy could react “very vigorously” to looser financial conditions, stoking demand and prolonging the central bank’s mission to beat inflation back to 2 per cent.

“For me, it’s about easing off the brake at this stage. It’s about making policy gradually less restrictive,” Musalem told the Financial Times on Friday. He was among officials to pencil in more than one quarter-point cut for the remainder of the year, according to projections released at this month’s meeting.

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The comments from Musalem, who became the St Louis Fed’s president in April and will be a voting member on the Federal Open Market Committee next year, came less than two weeks after the Fed lopped half a percentage point from rates, forgoing a more traditional quarter-point cut to kick off its first easing cycle since the onset of Covid-19 in early 2020.

The jumbo cut left benchmark rates at 4.75 per cent to 5 per cent — a move that Fed chair Jay Powell said was aimed at maintaining the strength of the world’s largest economy and staving off labour market weakness now that inflation was retreating.

On Friday, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge fell more than expected to an annual rate of 2.2 per cent in August.

Musalem, who supported the cut in September, acknowledged that the labour market had cooled in recent months, but remained positive about the outlook given the low rate of lay-offs and underlying strength of the economy.

The business sector was in a “good place” with activity overall “solid”, he said, adding that mass lay-offs did not appear “imminent”. Still, he conceded the Fed faced risks that could require it to cut rates more quickly.

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“I’m attuned to the fact that the economy could weaken more than I currently expect [and] the labour market could weaken more than I currently expect,” he said. “If that were the case, then a faster pace of rate reductions might be appropriate.”

That echoed comments from governor Christopher Waller last week, who said he would be “much more willing to be aggressive on rate cuts” if the data weakened more quickly.

Musalem said the risks of the economy weakening or heating up too quickly were now balanced, and the next rate decision would depend on data at the time.

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The Fed’s latest “dot plot” showed most officials expected rates to fall by another half a percentage point over the course of the two remaining meetings of the year. The next meeting is on November 6, a day after the US presidential election.

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Officials had a wide range of views, however, with two of them signalling the Fed should hold off on more cuts, while another seven forecast only one more quarter-point cut this year.

Policymakers also expected the funds rate to fall another percentage point in 2025, ending the year between 3.25 per cent and 3.5 per cent. By the end of 2026, it was estimated to fall just below 3 per cent.

Musalem pushed back on the idea that September’s half-point move was a “catch-up cut” because the Fed had been too slow to ease monetary policy, saying inflation had fallen far faster than he had expected.

“It was appropriate to begin with a strong and clear message to the economy that we’re starting from a position of strength,” he said.

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Newsom Suspends State Environmental Rules for Rebuilding After Fires

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Newsom Suspends State Environmental Rules for Rebuilding After Fires

Governor Gavin Newsom has signed a broad executive order that aims to make it easier to rebuild after the fires by suspending California’s costly and time-consuming environmental review process for homeowners and businesses whose property was damaged or destroyed.

The order is likely to be the first of several permit streamlining measures issued by state, county and city agencies in the wake of the devastating fires across greater Los Angeles.

Mr. Newsom’s three-page order, signed Sunday, covers all of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties and directs state agencies to coordinate with local governments to remove or expedite permitting and approval processes during rebuilding. The most significant piece is a waiver on permitting requirements under the California Environmental Quality Act — a landmark environmental law known colloquially as C.E.Q.A. or “See Qua.”

The governor also announced that he had suspended all permitting requirements under the California State Coastal Act for properties rebuilding after the fires.

California is one of America’s most difficult and costly places to build — a driving factor behind the state’s longstanding affordable housing shortage. Between state agencies and local land use commissions, the process of developing buildings, from office complexes to subsidized rental complexes, is longer and more expensive than in almost every other state.

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Of all the hurdles a project can be subjected to, few are more difficult and time-consuming than C.E.Q.A. The law often requires developers to fund in-depth environmental studies on a project’s potential impact on everything from local wildlife to noise, views and traffic. Groups who oppose a particular development often use C.E.Q.A. lawsuits to try to stop them. This can add years even to small projects.

While the state’s powerful environmental groups are fiercely protective of any attempts to amend C.E.Q.A. or the Coastal Act, the laws are routinely suspended in emergencies and for large projects such as sports stadiums.

Still, Mr. Newsom’s order was unusually extensive. For instance, after other disasters C.E.Q.A. suspensions have typically required rebuilding property owners to show they tried to comply with the law, even if they weren’t subjected to it. The order announced Sunday is a full waiver: For anyone rebuilding after the fires, C.E.Q.A. is effectively gone.

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California fires could be costliest disaster in US history, says governor

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California fires could be costliest disaster in US history, says governor

The California wildfires could be the costliest disaster in US history, the state’s governor said, as forecasts of heavy winds raised fears that the catastrophic blazes would spread further.

In remarks to NBC’s Meet the Press on Sunday, Gavin Newsom said the fires — which have burnt through more than 40,000 acres, according to CalFire, the state’s forestry and fire protection department — would be the worst the country has seen “in terms of just the costs associated with it, [and] in terms of the scale and scope”.

He added that there were likely to be “a lot more” fatalities confirmed. The death toll on Saturday evening stood at 16, according to Los Angeles authorities.

The prospect of a pick-up on Sunday in the Santa Ana winds that have fanned the flames has left tens of thousands of residents under evacuation orders. The fires were threatening homes in upscale Mandeville Canyon and the Brentwood neighbourhood, although officials said they had made progress in stemming the advance there.

The National Weather Service has forecast gusts of between 50mph and 70mph, while drought conditions remain.

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“We know that elevated critical fire conditions will continue through Wednesday”, Los Angeles County fire chief Anthony Maroney said on Sunday.

LA is experiencing its second-driest start to its rainy season in more than a century, according to the non-profit Cal Matters news service. Halfway into the season, LA has only recorded about 0.2 inches of rain since October -— well below the 4.5 inches that is common by January.

Newsom, a Democrat, responded to a barrage of attacks from Donald Trump. The incoming Republican president has accused the governor of depleting water reserves to protect an endangered species of fish, and of refusing to sign a “water restoration declaration” that would have “allowed millions of gallons of water . . . to flow daily into many parts of California”. Newsom’s office has said no such declaration exists.

Trump, who has a long-standing feud with Newsom and refers to him as “Newscum”, also called on the Californian to resign, accusing him of “gross incompetence”.

“The reservoirs are completely full, the state reservoirs here in Southern California,” Newsom said.

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The charred remains of a jewellery store and other shops at a corner of Sunset Boulevard © Michael Nigro/Bloomberg
An air tanker drops fire retardant at the Palisades Fire © Ringo Chiu/Reuters

“That mis- and disinformation I don’t think advantages or aids any of us,” he added. “Responding to Donald Trump’s insults, we would spend another month. I’m very familiar with them. Every elected official that he disagrees with is very familiar with them.”

Newsom also said he had invited the president-elect to visit the affected areas, but had yet to receive a response from the Trump transition team.

Firefighters have tamed three fires since Tuesday, including the Sunset blaze that threatened the Hollywood hills. The Hurst fire in the San Fernando Valley, north of Los Angeles, was 80 per cent contained on Sunday afternoon.

But firefighters are still struggling to tame the two biggest blazes. Newsom said on social media platform X that the Palisades and Eaton fires were 11 per cent and 27 per cent contained. Thousands of firefighters have been deployed to battle the Palisades fire with heavy trucks and air support, the mayor’s office said Sunday. The city has also opened shelters to affected families.

The Federal Emergency Management Agency (Fema) has staff in LA to help Angelenos apply for disaster relief, while the Federal Small Business Administration is offering home and business disaster loans.

Newsom issued an executive order that he said would prevent those who lost their homes from being “caught up in bureaucratic red tape” so they could quickly rebuild.

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The head of Fema on Sunday raised the prospect of US troops being sent to Los Angeles to help control the blaze.

“There are active-duty military personnel that are on a prepare-to-deploy order, that are ready to go in and continue to support the firefighting effort,” Deanne Criswell told ABC’s This Week programme. Speaking on CNN, she warned that strong winds expected in the coming days could spread the fire further.

Map showing the perimeters of the fires in LA and evacuation orders and warnings currently in place

No official estimate of the cost of the damage has yet been released, but analysts at AccuWeather last week calculated the economic loss to be between $135bn and $150bn — short of the $250bn cost associated with last year’s Hurricane Helene. At least 12,300 structures had been destroyed, according to CalFire.

President Joe Biden on Thursday pledged that the US government would pay for “100 per cent of all the costs” created by the disaster, and would ask Congress for more financial aid.

Trump, who on the campaign trail last year threatened to withhold disaster funding from California, has thus far remained silent on whether he would provide similar assistance. On Sunday, he renewed his attacks on the state’s officials.

“The incompetent pols have no idea how to put [the fires] out,” he wrote. “There is death all over the place. This is one of the worst catastrophes in the history of our country. They just can’t put out the fires. What’s wrong with them?”

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On the way out: Transportation Sec. Buttigieg looks back on achievements, challenges : Consider This from NPR

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On the way out: Transportation Sec. Buttigieg looks back on achievements, challenges : Consider This from NPR

U.S. Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg speaks to questions during a news conference at Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport November 21, 2024 in Arlington, Virginia.

Alex Wong/Getty Images


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Alex Wong/Getty Images


U.S. Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg speaks to questions during a news conference at Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport November 21, 2024 in Arlington, Virginia.

Alex Wong/Getty Images

From handling crises in the rail and airline industries to overseeing the distribution of billions of dollars in infrastructure funding, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg has taken on a lot over the last four years.

Now, his tenure is coming to an end.

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Host Scott Detrow speaks with Buttigieg about what the Biden administration accomplished, what it didn’t get done, and what he’s taking away from an election where voters resoundingly called for something different.

For sponsor-free episodes of Consider This, sign up for Consider This+ via Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org

Email us at considerthis@npr.org

This episode was produced by Brianna Scott, Avery Keatley and Tyler Bartlam. It was edited by Adam Raney.

Our executive producer is Sami Yenigun.

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