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Federal Reserve should cut US interest rates ‘gradually’, says top official

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Federal Reserve should cut US interest rates ‘gradually’, says top official

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A top Federal Reserve official said the US central bank should revert to cutting interest rates “gradually”, after a larger than usual half-point reduction earlier this month.

St Louis Fed president Alberto Musalem said the US economy could react “very vigorously” to looser financial conditions, stoking demand and prolonging the central bank’s mission to beat inflation back to 2 per cent.

“For me, it’s about easing off the brake at this stage. It’s about making policy gradually less restrictive,” Musalem told the Financial Times on Friday. He was among officials to pencil in more than one quarter-point cut for the remainder of the year, according to projections released at this month’s meeting.

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The comments from Musalem, who became the St Louis Fed’s president in April and will be a voting member on the Federal Open Market Committee next year, came less than two weeks after the Fed lopped half a percentage point from rates, forgoing a more traditional quarter-point cut to kick off its first easing cycle since the onset of Covid-19 in early 2020.

The jumbo cut left benchmark rates at 4.75 per cent to 5 per cent — a move that Fed chair Jay Powell said was aimed at maintaining the strength of the world’s largest economy and staving off labour market weakness now that inflation was retreating.

On Friday, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge fell more than expected to an annual rate of 2.2 per cent in August.

Musalem, who supported the cut in September, acknowledged that the labour market had cooled in recent months, but remained positive about the outlook given the low rate of lay-offs and underlying strength of the economy.

The business sector was in a “good place” with activity overall “solid”, he said, adding that mass lay-offs did not appear “imminent”. Still, he conceded the Fed faced risks that could require it to cut rates more quickly.

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“I’m attuned to the fact that the economy could weaken more than I currently expect [and] the labour market could weaken more than I currently expect,” he said. “If that were the case, then a faster pace of rate reductions might be appropriate.”

That echoed comments from governor Christopher Waller last week, who said he would be “much more willing to be aggressive on rate cuts” if the data weakened more quickly.

Musalem said the risks of the economy weakening or heating up too quickly were now balanced, and the next rate decision would depend on data at the time.

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The Fed’s latest “dot plot” showed most officials expected rates to fall by another half a percentage point over the course of the two remaining meetings of the year. The next meeting is on November 6, a day after the US presidential election.

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Officials had a wide range of views, however, with two of them signalling the Fed should hold off on more cuts, while another seven forecast only one more quarter-point cut this year.

Policymakers also expected the funds rate to fall another percentage point in 2025, ending the year between 3.25 per cent and 3.5 per cent. By the end of 2026, it was estimated to fall just below 3 per cent.

Musalem pushed back on the idea that September’s half-point move was a “catch-up cut” because the Fed had been too slow to ease monetary policy, saying inflation had fallen far faster than he had expected.

“It was appropriate to begin with a strong and clear message to the economy that we’re starting from a position of strength,” he said.

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Trump campaign hack traced to three Iranians seeking to disrupt election, DOJ says

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Trump campaign hack traced to three Iranians seeking to disrupt election, DOJ says

FBI Director Christopher Wray speaks during a news conference in 2023.

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The Justice Department on Friday unveiled criminal charges against three Iranian hackers employed by Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corp. for targeting and compromising the electronic accounts of Trump campaign aides and others.

The indictment alleges the hacking is part of Iran’s effort to erode confidence in the U.S. electoral process ahead of the November presidential election.

Attorney General Merrick Garland, speaking at a press conference on Friday, said the U.S. government is tracking various plots by Iran to harm American officials, including former president and current Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump.

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“These hackers impersonated US government officials, used the fake personas they created to engage in spearphishing, and then exploited their unauthorized access to trick even more people and steal even more confidential information,” FBI Director Christopher Wray said on Friday, according to his prepared remarks.

The FBI had been investigating after the Trump campaign last month said it had been hacked and suggested Iran was involved, without providing specific evidence for that.

The three men are accused of wire fraud; conspiracy to obtain information from protected computers; and material support to a terrorist organization.

Garland said both the Trump and Harris campaigns have been cooperating with the investigation.

The defendants are outside the reach of the U.S. and it’s not clear when, if ever, American authorities may be able to arrest them.

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Several technology companies have also been monitoring and reporting on hacking threats to the U.S. from foreign countries, including Iran.

Google Threat Intelligence Group’s John Hultquist said Iran’s attacks are constantly evolving.

Hackers from the Iranian Revolutionary Guard “regularly assume the guise of hacktivists or criminals and have increasingly targeted random individuals through email and even text messages,” he said in a statement.

“Most of this activity is designed to undermine trust in security, and is used to attack confidence in elections in particular.”

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Video: What Threats Mean for Trump’s Campaign

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Video: What Threats Mean for Trump’s Campaign

Former President Donald J. Trump’s advisers are considering whether to modify his travel after threats to his life from Iran and two assassination attempts, according to several people briefed on the matter. Maggie Haberman, a senior political correspondent for The New York Times, recounts the ways in which these threats have affected Mr. Trump and his campaign.

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Chinese stocks post best week since 2008 after stimulus blitz

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Chinese stocks post best week since 2008 after stimulus blitz

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Chinese equities have surged to their best week since 2008 after Beijing launched an economic stimulus package including a $114bn war chest to boost the stock market.

The CSI 300 index of Shanghai- and Shenzhen-listed companies is up 15.7 per cent for the week in its best performance since November 2008, when China announced a similar stimulus package in response to the global financial crisis.

The rally, which has also helped buoy European markets and industrial metals, comes as China’s leadership rushes to support the country’s capital markets, stabilise a property sector crisis and boost domestic consumption in order to meet its economic growth target of 5 per cent for the year.

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On Tuesday, the People’s Bank of China unveiled an Rmb800bn ($114bn) lending pool for the country’s capital markets, comprising funds to lend to companies to buy back their own shares and to lend to non-bank financial institutions such as insurers to buy local equities.

The CSI 300 index closed up 4.5 per cent on Friday while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index rose 3.6 per cent, up 13 per cent since the start of the week in its biggest weekly gain since October 1998 during the Asian financial crisis.

“We are at a pivotal moment for the Chinese economy and its equities market,” said Nicholas Yeo, head of China equities at Abrdn, who said in a note that the US Federal Reserve’s recent interest rate cut would also be a significant tailwind.

“Global easing conditions are poised to bolster consumption, which is a boon for China, the world’s largest exporter.”

Hopes for more stimulus in China helped lift European stocks. The region-wide Stoxx 600 hit a fresh record high on Friday, pushed higher by luxury groups that would benefit from stronger consumer spending in China.

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The China rally followed Wall Street gains after the S&P 500 closed on Thursday at a record high for the third time this week, with equities climbing ahead of Friday’s inflation report.

Chinese authorities in August restricted the daily northbound data through the Hong Kong Stock Connect programme that shows foreign investor flows into mainland stocks.

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But Citi said the past three days were “the busiest period for Citi’s equities sales and trading team in the Asia region, with record client flows” into Hong Kong and mainland Chinese equities.

The Shanghai Stock Exchange put out a notice on Friday warning investors of “abnormally” slow transaction speeds as a result of frenzied morning trading, said two people familiar with the situation.

“We can’t dismiss this as the same old policy,” said Winnie Wu, equity strategist at Bank of America. “This is the first time that the government is encouraging leveraged investment in the stock market. A liquidity-leveraged rally should still have significant room to go.”

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Line chart of Indices rebased in $ terms up to Sep 26 showing Hong Kong stocks are almost level with the S&P 500 year-to-date

David Chao, a global market strategist at Invesco, said the rally in Chinese stocks could be sustained. “China markets are about momentum, and I see certain parallels between the existing rally and that of the 2014-15 rally,” when Shanghai’s index rose about 150 per cent between June 2014 and June 2015 but then collapsed.

Chao added that, as the dollar continued to weaken on the back of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, he predicted “possible rotation out of the expensive and crowded global tech trade into cheaper [emerging market] assets”.

The stimulus measures this week have propelled most commodity prices higher, with the notable exception of oil, which has been damped by news of Saudi Arabia preparing to increase output. 

In particular, industrial metals such as copper, aluminium and zinc, of which China is a huge consumer because of its vast manufacturing sector, have surged, building on a rally that started earlier this month.

Copper, which is used heavily in the final stages of construction for electrical wiring, has gained more than 5 per cent since Tuesday to break through the $10,000 per tonne mark and reach its highest level in three months. 

For iron ore, a steelmaking ingredient, the stimulus measures have helped trigger a rebound after a slide in price to a two-year low that was largely driven by weak consumption of steel.

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“In a commodity where expectations were negative, such as iron ore, this marks a clear turn,” said Colin Hamilton, commodities strategist at BMO. “We see this as a clear reflation trade, but the question will be whether it is enough to boost weak consumer sentiment.”

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