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Doomed plan to send Polish jets to Ukraine exposes rift in western alliance

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Doomed plan to send Polish jets to Ukraine exposes rift in western alliance

Victoria Nuland, the senior US state division official, was on her method to testify earlier than Congress on Tuesday when she heard that Poland had provided to provide its Russian-made MiG fighter jets to the US to move to Ukraine.

“I noticed that announcement . . . as I used to be actually driving right here,” Nuland instructed the Senate international relations committee, including that it was a complete “shock”.

The White Home was additionally caught off guard when Poland revealed the provide on a authorities web site. One particular person accustomed to the state of affairs stated the US ambassador to Warsaw had not even been knowledgeable by the Poles.

The discharge of the provide with out consultations with Washington uncovered the primary actual fissure within the united method that the US and its Nato allies had proven over the struggle in Ukraine.

Hours later, John Kirby, Pentagon spokesperson, stated the plan was not “tenable”. He stated the concept of Poland sending MiGs to Ramstein, a US-Nato air base in Germany, from the place they might “fly into airspace that’s contested with Russia over Ukraine raises critical issues for the complete Nato alliance”.

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The Polish provide was the most recent twist in a saga that performed out in private and non-private because the US, Poland and Nato debated the switch of the MiG plane to Ukraine. It was a brand new variation of a convoluted swap thought that may have concerned the US sending F-16 fighter jets to Poland to replenish its air drive.

9 days earlier than, Josep Borrell, EU international coverage chief, had thrust the broader subject into the general public eye by saying some EU members deliberate to provide fighter jets to Ukraine following a request from Kyiv. His remark put strain on different western leaders to reply to an concept that the US and its allies weren’t planning to make public at the moment.

A number of days after Borrell had spoken, Polish president Andrzej Duda stated Warsaw wouldn’t ship MiGs to Ukraine as a result of it might be “army interference within the battle”.

However a number of US and Polish sources accustomed to the state of affairs stated his remark got here after Washington rejected a Polish proposal that may have concerned Poland straight sending MiGs to Ukraine and receiving F-16s in return. One senior Polish official stated Warsaw obtained a “sceptical” response to its authentic proposal.

The US didn’t oppose Poland transferring its MiGs to Ukraine. However the Pentagon concluded that supplying F-16s can be each troublesome logistically and, extra importantly, risked dragging America right into a struggle with Russia.

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One particular person accustomed to the controversy stated the Pentagon had opposed the F-16 thought from the start. Some US officers have been involved that Poland was primarily suggesting the swap as a method to improve its air drive.

A number of different folks stated the state division supported the primary thought whereas the White Home Nationwide Safety Council was divided.

The concept appeared to have evaporated till it re-emerged on March 5 when Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky spoke to virtually 300 US lawmakers on a Zoom name, and made a passionate plea for fighter jets. He stated Poland was ready to ship MiGs to Ukraine in change for F-16s.

Hours later, the White Home instructed the Monetary Occasions it was in talks with Poland over the problem. The next day, Antony Blinken, secretary of state, stated throughout a go to to Ukraine that the proposal had the “inexperienced gentle”. Warsaw reacted angrily as a result of they’d not been instructed in regards to the US shift.

“The issue was that we had been instructed ‘No’. After which all of the sudden they go to the media and say there’s a inexperienced gentle and on the similar time there was no communication with us,” stated the senior Polish official.

One particular person accustomed to the diplomatic forwards and backwards stated the US didn’t imply to blindside Poland. He stated it was unclear if Poland was nonetheless — as Zelensky had urged — and wished to provide Warsaw house to manoeuvre. However he stated he understood why Poland was upset on the approach the US had dealt with the state of affairs.

A number of folks accustomed to the diplomatic kerfuffle stated Warsaw had made the shock provide handy its MiGs to the US as a result of it wished to scotch ideas that it was merely in search of to improve its air drive. It was additionally pissed off at what it perceived as an try to strong-arm it into taking dangers that would immediate retaliation from Russia with out the complete assist of the Nato alliance.

“It was public statements with out session . . . and portraying us to Ukraine as reluctant, whereas really they have been discouraging us,” the Polish official stated. “The federal government acquired infuriated and replied in type. The US shouldn’t be attempting to shift the blame on to us. We’re doing quite a bit for Ukraine, so we shouldn’t be uncovered like this.”

Dan Fried, a former US ambassador to Poland, stated the Poles interpreted Blinken’s remark in regards to the “inexperienced gentle” within the wake of the Zelensky name with Congress because the US shifting the onus on to them.

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“They acquired pissed,” Fried defined. “They determined to place the onus again on the US (with the Ramstein proposal).”

“Borrell tousled, the US tousled, the Poles tousled, however no one was performing in unhealthy religion,” stated Fried, who’s now on the Atlantic Council. “It was an operational clusterfuck, however not strategic abandonment of Ukraine.”

Michal Baranowski, a US-Poland skilled on the German Marshall Fund think-tank, stated the spat was unlikely to derail Polish-US relations in the long run.

“If the Individuals got here throughout as pushy and twisting Poland’s arm, then the Poles got here throughout as unpredictable to the Individuals,” he stated. “It is a scratch on this very shiny new Polish-US relationship, however I don’t essentially suppose that it’ll be a really lengthy or persistent scratch.”

US officers have since confused that they worth Poland’s contribution within the effort to assist Ukraine. Kamala Harris, vice-president, additionally visited Poland final week in an effort to indicate assist for nations on Nato’s jap flank.

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“In shut relationships you typically want a quarrel. We’re often very well mannered to our American allies, however typically in addition they want to grasp that we have to be handled as companions,” stated the senior Polish official, including that latest high-level conversations urged that each side had moved on. “There are extra necessary points.”

Observe Demetri Sevastopulo and James Shotter on Twitter

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Trump Calls Officials Handling Los Angeles Wildfires ‘Incompetent’

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Trump Calls Officials Handling Los Angeles Wildfires ‘Incompetent’

President-elect Donald J. Trump offered fresh criticism early Sunday of the officials in charge of fighting the Los Angeles wildfires, calling them “incompetent” and asking why the blazes were not yet extinguished.

“The fires are still raging in L.A.,” Mr. Trump wrote on his Truth Social site. “The incompetent pols have no idea how to put them out.”

Mr. Trump’s comments indicated that the fires, and officials’ response to them, will likely occupy a prominent place on his domestic political agenda when he takes office on Jan. 20. He has renewed a longstanding feud with California’s governor, Gavin Newsom, who in turn has accused Mr. Trump of politicizing the fires.

California politicians have faced criticism over the fires since they broke out on Tuesday, including questions over how local and state authorities had prepared for them and how they have grown so quickly into huge blazes.

Mayor Karen Bass of Los Angeles had to contend with questions about whether there was adequate warning about the likelihood of devastating fires, and why there was a shortage of water and firefighters during the initial response. At a news conference on Thursday, she avoided a question about her absence from the city when the fires began — she was in Ghana on a previously scheduled official visit — and said that any evaluation of mistakes or failures by “any body, department, individual” would come later.

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Mr. Newsom, a Democrat, has also fended off criticism from Mr. Trump, who blamed him for the failure to contain fires and claimed he had blocked an infusion of water to Southern California over concerns about how it would affect a threatened fish species.

Mr. Newsom’s press office responded by saying in a statement that the “water restoration declaration” that Mr. Trump had accused him of not signing did not exist. “The governor is focused on protecting people, not playing politics, and making sure firefighters have all the resources they need,” the statement said.

Mr. Newsom and Kathryn Barger, the chair of the Los Angeles County Board of Supervisors, have invited Mr. Trump to tour fire damage in the city. He has not responded publicly to those invitations.

At least 16 people had died as a result of the fires as of Sunday morning, and at least 12,000 structures had been destroyed, officials said. Mr. Trump alluded to that devastation in his post on Sunday.

“Thousands of magnificent houses are gone, and many more will soon be lost,” he wrote. “There is death all over the place. This is one of the worst catastrophes in the history of our Country. They just can’t put out the fires. What’s wrong with them?”

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His post did not mention any officials by name.

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Russia’s war economy is a house of cards

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Russia’s war economy is a house of cards

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The most important thing Russian President Vladimir Putin tries to impress on Ukraine’s western friends is that he has time on his side, so the only way to end the war is to accommodate his wishes. The apparent resilience of Russia’s economy, and the resulting scepticism in some corners that western sanctions have had an effect, is a central part of this information warfare. 

The reality is that the financial underpinnings of Russia’s war economy increasingly look like a house of cards — so much so that senior members of the governing elite are publicly expressing concern. They include Sergei Chemezov, chief executive of state defence giant Rostec, who warned that expensive credit was killing his weapons export business, and Elvira Nabiullina, head of the central bank. 

This pair know better than many people in the west, who have been taken in by numbers indicating steady growth, low unemployment and rising wages. But any economy on a full mobilisation footing can produce such outcomes: this is basic Keynesianism. The real test is how already employed resources — rather than idle ones — are being shifted away from their previous uses and into the needs of war. 

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A state has three methods to achieve this: borrowing, inflation and expropriation. It must choose the most effective and painless mix. Putin’s conceit — towards both the west and his own public — has been that he can fund this war without financial instability or significant material sacrifices. But this is an illusion. If Chemezov’s and Nabiullina’s frustrations are spilling into public view, it means the illusion is flickering.

A new report by Russia analyst and former banker Craig Kennedy highlights the huge growth in Russian corporate debt. It has soared by 71 per cent since 2022 and dwarfs new household and government borrowing.

Notionally private, this lending is in reality a creature of the state. Putin has commandeered the Russian banking system, with banks required to lend to companies designated by the government at chosen, preferential terms. The result has been a flood of below-market-rate credit to favoured economic actors.

In essence, Russia is engaged in massive money printing, outsourced so that it does not show up on the public balance sheet. Kennedy estimates the total at about 20 per cent of Russia’s 2023 national output, comparable to the cumulative on-budget allocations for the full-scale war.

We can tell from the Kremlin’s actions that it sees two things as anathema: visibly weak public finances and runaway inflation.

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The government eschews a significant budget deficit, despite growing war-related spending. The central bank remains free to raise interest rates, currently at 21 per cent. Not enough to beat down inflation driven by state-decreed subsidised credit, but enough to keep price growth within bounds.

The upshot is that Chemezov’s and Nabiullina’s problems are not an error that can be fixed but inherent to Putin’s choice to flatter public finances and keep a (high) lid on inflation. Something else has to give, and that something else includes businesses that cannot operate profitably when borrowing costs exceed 20 per cent.

Putin’s privatised credit scheme, meanwhile, is storing up a credit crisis as the loans go bad. The state may bail out the banks — if they don’t collapse first. Given Russians’ experience of suddenly worthless deposits, fears of a repeat could easily trigger self-fulfilling runs. That would destroy not just banks’ but the government’s legitimacy.

Putin, in short, does not have time on his side. He sits on a ticking financial time bomb of his own making. The key for Ukraine’s friends is to deny him the one thing that would defuse it: greater access to external funds.

The west has blocked Moscow’s access to some $300bn in reserves, put spanners in the works of its oil trade and hit its ability to import a range of goods. Combined, these prevent Russia from spending all its foreign earnings to relieve resource constraints at home. Intensifying sanctions and finally transferring reserves to Ukraine as a down payment on reparations would intensify those constraints.

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Putin’s obsession is the sudden collapse of power. That, as he must be realising, is the risk his war economics has set in motion. Making it recede, by increasing access to external resources through sanctions relief, will be his goal in any diplomacy. The west must convince him that this will not happen. That, and only that, will force Putin to choose between his assault on Ukraine and his grip on power at home.

martin.sandbu@ft.com

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Crews race to contain LA wildfires as menacing winds may ramp up: Live updates

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Crews race to contain LA wildfires as menacing winds may ramp up: Live updates
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LOS ANGELES − Fire crews on Sunday were racing to gain an upper hand against infernos that have ignited across the Los Angeles area amid ominous new wind warnings as flames threatened additional Southern California communities.

Aircraft unloaded water and fire retardant on hills where the Palisades Fire − the most destructive in the history of Los Angeles − ballooned another 1,000 acres to a total of 23,654, destroying more homes. The expansion of the fire, which was 11% contained, to the north and east spurred officials to issue more mandatory evacuations to the west of the 405 freeway as the blaze put parts of Encino and Brentwood in peril.

Cal Fire official Todd Hopkins said the Palisades Fire had spread into the Mandeville Canyon neighborhood and threatened to jump into the upscale Brentwood community and the San Fernando Valley.

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The Palisades Fire is one of six blazes that have erupted since Tuesday, leaving at least 16 people dead. Four of the six fires remained active on Sunday.

Santa Ana winds that have fueled the blazes for the past week were expected to strengthen Sunday morning in Los Angeles and Ventura counties and again late Monday through Tuesday morning. Sustained winds could reach 30 mph, with gusts up to 70 mph possible , forecasters said.

“Critical fire-weather conditions will unfortunately ramp up again … for southern California and last through at least early next week as periodic enhancements of off-shore winds continue,” the National Weather Service said. “This may lead to the spread of ongoing fires as well as the development of new ones.”

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Developments:

∎ About12,000 structures have been damaged or destroyed from the wildfires, which have consumed about 38,000 acres of land total, according to CalFire.

∎ Evacuation orders throughout the Los Angeles area now cover 153,000 residents. Another 166,000 residents have been warned that they may have to evacuate, Los Angeles County Sheriff Robert Luna, said.

∎ Gov. Gavin Newsom announced an investigation into water supply issues that may have impeded firefighters’ efforts.

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At least 16 people have died between the Eaton and Palisades fires, the Los Angeles County Medical Examiner said Saturday.

The Palisades Fire had at least five deaths, according to medical examiner records, and 11 people have died in the Eaton Fire.

Of the 16 total deaths in both fires, the only victim identified by officials was Victor Shaw, 66, who died Wednesday protecting his home in Altadena. Another victim was man in his 80s, but authorities did not release his name, pending notification of next of kin.

To the northeast, the Eaton Fire stood at 14,117 acres and was 15% contained after ripping through parts of Altadena and Pasadena. More than 7,000 structures were damaged or destroyed,  Fire Chief Anthony Marrone said.

In Altadena, California official Don Fregulia said managing the Eaton Fire and its impact will be a “huge, Herculean task” that he said will take “many weeks of work.”

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Progress was reported Saturday in bringing electrical power back to some Los Angeles neighborhoods.

Southern California Edison CEO Steven Powell said there are now about 48,000 customers without power, “down from over half a million just a couple days ago.”

Yes fire officials warned public safety power shutoffs were again likely to prevent new fires being ignited.

“They help save lives,” Marrone said. “Yes, they’re a challenge to deal with, but it’s certainly better than having another fire start.”

Richard and Cathryn Conn evacuated from the Pacific Palisades neighborhood earlier this week, only to find out that much of their neighborhood had been decimated. But they still aren’t sure about their four-bedroom house where they’d lived for over a quarter-century.

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“You can visualize every room,’’ Richard Conn, 75, said, “and then you know there’s a 50% chance it doesn’t exist anymore.”

“If you have ever wondered what it was like living in Dresden after the World War II firebombing, you should come to the Palisades,” he said.

They also don’t know what’s going to happen next as dangerous weather conditions have made it difficult to contain the fires, and more brush fires seem to keep popping up all over the county.

“I feel like people are panicking,” said Gary Baseman, 64. Read more.

As California fire officials are still getting to the bottom of what sparked the wildfires raging across Los Angeles, and politicians point fingers at one another, climate change is helping drive an increase in large wildfires in the U.S.

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“Climate change is leading to larger and more severe wildfires in the western United States,” the latest National Climate Assessment previously reported. These fires have “significant public health, socioeconomic, and ecological implications for the nation.”

But is climate change the main factor in California? It’s not quite that simple. Reporters from the Arizona Republic, part of the USA TODAY Network, dive into this topic. Read more here

Contributing: Jeanine Santucci, Eduardo Cuevas; Reuters

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