Stay informed with free updates

Simply sign up to the US economy myFT Digest — delivered directly to your inbox.

US retailers are extending their one-day seasonal Black Friday discount offers into a sales event lasting weeks in a bid to tempt US consumers to keep spending, as data suggests that their spree which has driven economic growth is beginning to falter.

Walmart, Amazon, Target and Macy’s are among the US retailers already offering deep discounts under the banner of Black Friday, long before it actually arrives this week.

Despite this, general merchandise unit sales were down 3 per cent year-on-year in the week ending 16 November according to data from Circana, which compiles retail point-of-sale data.

The National Retail Federation forecasts that winter holiday sales will reach almost $1tn in the US in November and December, a record $902 a head. But the rate of spending growth is expected to be about 2.5-3.5 per cent, the slowest since 2018.

“We’re seeing this drag-out of incentives to try to widen the window within which [retailers] can draw more consumers,” said Gregory Daco, chief economist at adviser EY Parthenon. “The likely reality in this holiday season is that we see fairly subdued sales because volumes are growing, but at a moderate pace — and [retailers have] much less pricing power.”

Retailers were “incentivising via discounts and different forms of promotions” for those at the lower end of the income spectrum while also “trying to grab higher-income individuals to make purchases during this wider window”, he said.

Although headline inflation has ebbed from the historic highs of the past couple of years, consumers “remain extremely frustrated by the persistence of high prices”, the University of Michigan said this week in a monthly survey.

Consumer spending has been the main driver of America’s robust economic growth in recent months. But consumer confidence is still well below the long-run average, sentiment surveys show.

The prospect of a fresh round of tariffs under Donald Trump’s incoming presidency raises the risk that inflation could take off again, economists have warned — posing a fresh drag on sentiment.

“Donald Trump’s return to the White House with a Republican majority [probably leads] to higher inflation, slower GDP growth and increased budget deficits,” Roland Fumasi, food and agribusiness analyst at Rabobank, said in a note.

If Trump increases tariffs, that would “lead to a rebound in inflation and a slowdown in economic growth”, he said.

“The negative impact on growth could be mitigated by tax cuts and deregulation by a Republican Congress. However, this would increase the budget deficit and reinforce inflation, especially in combination with reduced immigration,” he added.

Black Friday is one of the busiest times of year for consumer goods stores, and the period between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday — the Monday following the holiday, when electronics vendors discount goods — is critical to retailers’ annual revenue.

NRF chief economist Jack Kleinhenz said that households’ finances were in “good shape”, offering “an impetus for strong spending heading into the holiday season”, although “households will spend more cautiously”.

Brian Cornell, Target chief executive, told analysts this week that consumers were becoming “increasingly resourceful” in the way that they shopped, “focusing on deals and then stocking up when they find them”.

The store group, which disappointed Wall Street this week by forecasting flat sales in the fourth quarter, ran a three-day “Early Black Friday” promotion in early November. On Thursday it launched a promotion titled “Black Friday deals” which will last to the end of the month, including items such as half-price Christmas trees and headphones.

Walmart, the world’s largest retailer, launched the first of two week-long “Black Friday Deals” events on November 11. The second will begin on Monday, offering markdowns on televisions, iPhones, toys and jeans, among other items.

Amazon’s “Black Friday Week” began on Thursday. Home Depot’s “Black Friday Savings” offer lasts from November 7 to December 4.

Additional reporting by Will Schmitt in New York and Madeleine Speed in London

Two people were killed and one was injured after a Civil Air Patrol plane crashed near Storm Mountain in Colorado.

Authorities responded to a report of a plane crash roughly 80 miles north of Denver shortly after 11 a.m. on Saturday, the Larimer County Sheriff’s Office said.

Emergency crews and deputies found three passengers on board. Two were confirmed dead while the third was transported to a local hospital with severe injuries, the sheriff’s office said.

The plane belonged to the Thompson Valley Composite Squadron of the Civil Air Patrol, a civilian auxiliary of the US Air Force. The plane, which the National Transportation Safety Board identified as a Cessna 182, was conducting a routine aerial photography training mission when the incident occurred, Colorado Civil Air Patrol confirmed.

Pilot Susan Wolber and aerial photographer Jay Rhoten lost their lives in the crash while co-pilot Randall Settergren suffered injuries, the state’s Governor Jared Polis announced Saturday.

open image in gallery

These individuals “served the Civil Air Patrol as volunteers who wanted to help make Colorado a better, safer place for all. The State of Colorado is grateful for their commitment to service and it will not be forgotten,” the governor said.

The sheriff’s office is still working on recovery operations, which it expects will take several days “due to the extreme, rugged terrain,” authorities said. An investigation into the crash is also ongoing.

Major General Laura Clellan, the Adjutant General of Colorado of the state’s department of Military and Veterans Affairs, also issued a statement in the wake of the tragedy.

“The volunteers of Civil Air Patrol are a valuable part of the Department of Military and Veterans Affairs, and the lifesaving work they do on a daily basis directly contributes to the public safety of Coloradans throughout the state,” she said. “Our thoughts and deepest condolences are with the families of those involved in the crash. I would also like to thank all of the first responders who assisted with rescue efforts.”

Colorado Civil Air Patrol missions “range from search-and-rescue of lost hikers or hunters, location of downed aircraft, and transport of emergency personnel or medical materials,” the statement said.

Loveland Fire Rescue Authority, Thompson Valley EMS, UCHealth LifeLine, Larimer County Parks Rangers, Loveland Police Department, the United States Forest Service, and the Colorado Air National Guard also assisted with the incident response.

Starbucks has slashed its use of hedges against coffee price shocks even as the price of beans has soared, raising concerns that it may be unusually exposed to market swings. 

The world’s largest café chain held less than $200mn worth of fixed-price contracts for so-called green, or unroasted, coffee at the end of its fiscal year in September, according to its newly filed annual report, down from $1bn as recently as 2019. 

The decline has occurred at a time when roasters confront supply deficits after persistently poor crops in major exporters such as Brazil. Benchmark coffee futures rose above $3 a pound in New York on Friday to a 13-year high, following a more than 70 per cent gain in the past 12 months. 

Starbucks buys 3 per cent of the world’s coffee to supply its 40,000 cafés and retail businesses. A team based in Lausanne, Switzerland manages purchasing high-quality arabica beans under a subsidiary named the Starbucks Coffee Trading Company. The decline in the value of its fixed-price contracts has attracted attention on Wall Street. 

“They are substantially less hedged than they used to be. It makes the next 12 months of coffee prices more important than they’ve ever been,” said Gregory Francfort, a restaurant analyst at Guggenheim Securities.   

New Starbucks chief executive Brian Niccol is in the the early stages of a plan to revive flagging sales at cafés. One of his goals is to restore its appeal as a community coffee house. “At Starbucks, coffee comes first,” he said in video remarks last month. 

The company is not alone among roasters in letting price-cover slip during an explosive market rally. Data from the US commodity futures regulator shows commercial traders have sharply reduced their contracts to buy arabica.

A coffee trader familiar with Starbucks’ operations says the majority of its purchases are made with so-called “price-to-be-fixed” contracts, which establish a quantity, delivery month and the amount of price premium to New York’s futures market. The final purchase price is agreed later.

“When a market rallies significantly and quickly, as coffee has done, the roasting community in general tends to let coverage decline,” the trader said.

Starbucks’ 56 “tier one” suppliers range from global commodities trading houses such as Louis Dreyfus and Olam to farmer co-operatives. The company in 2021 said it bought 800mn lbs of coffee annually — an amount that would cost $2.4bn at current benchmark prices. 

Starbucks had $1.1bn in green coffee purchase obligations on its books as of September, according to its annual report.

The company buys green coffee using two types of contracts: fixed-price and price-to-be-fixed, according to its annual report. For the latter, the company also uses derivatives contracts to insure against market gyrations. 

“Like others, right now we’re remaining agile in a very dynamic market,” Starbucks said in response to questions. “An example of that agility is that our current priced coverage is slightly lower than our typical range of 9-18 months.”  

Starbucks executives rarely discuss coffee hedging with Wall Street, but in 2021 — another period of furious price rises — then-CEO Kevin Johnson told analysts the company purchased 12 to 18 months in advance, and at the time had locked in prices for the next 14 months.

“We may be the only large buyer of green coffee that uses this approach, and that will serve us well as it gives us a significant advantage relative to our competitors who, if they don’t buy this far in advance, will certainly not have that cost structure that we put in place,” he said.

The value of Starbucks’ price-to-be-fixed contracts has fluctuated, ending the fiscal year in September at $929mn, according to the annual report.

That sum was more than a year ago, but well below levels of 2021 and 2022. Coffee derivatives contracts held by Starbucks were worth $154mn, the lowest September value since 2020. 

At Starbucks, coffee comes first

Starbucks’ coffee trading operation is headed by Andres Berron, an eight-year employee of the company, according to his LinkedIn page. The company declined to make him available for comment. 

Starbucks said its approach to purchasing coffee hasn’t changed. The company pointed out that its current stocks of physical coffee are a cushion against volatility in the spot market.

Inventories of unroasted and roasted beans combined were worth about $920mn as of September, according to the annual report, the lowest fiscal year-end figure since 2021. 

“We keep a healthy and ample green coffee inventory that outpaces other roasters,” Starbucks said. 

Global coffee production has been rocked by poor weather. The US Department of Agriculture last week cut its production forecast for Brazil, the top supplier, citing irregular rainfall and high temperatures that could depress its next harvest. 

“The global coffee market just can’t seem to catch a break,” said Kona Haque, a commodities analyst at ED&F Man in London. “Just when you think maybe this year we’re going to get a big crop and finally get back to a surplus and rebuild our stocks, you get another adverse-weather event in either Brazil or Vietnam, and things get tight again.” 

“Because markets now are tighter than usual, there is upward pressure on prices,” she added. “In a rising price environment, clearly you want to be hedged. You do not want to be exposed to rising spot prices.”