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Analysis: With Taiwan drills, Xi tries to salvage Pelosi crisis

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Analysis: With Taiwan drills, Xi tries to salvage Pelosi crisis

U.S. Home of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi attends a information convention on the U.S. Embassy in Tokyo, Japan August 5, 2022. REUTERS/Issei Kato

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BEIJING, Aug 7 (Reuters) – Chinese language President Xi Jinping could not have been in a position to cease Nancy Pelosi’s go to to Taiwan, however he ordered his nation’s navy to rehearse a way more aggressive step: a blockade essential to taking the island by power, safety consultants say.

China’s navy planners have lengthy mentioned a blockade of Taiwan, however till now probably noticed working towards such a transfer as too provocative, safety consultants say.

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However after U.S. Home Speaker Pelosi’s go to, China’s navy for the primary time fired missiles over Taipei, flew waves of drones over Taiwan’s offshore islands, sailed warships throughout the median line of the Taiwan Strait and surrounded the self-ruled island in what Taiwan’s navy stated amounted to a observe “blockade.”

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“These first actions in impact modified the established order of Taiwan’s safety,” stated Li Mingjiang, an affiliate professor on the S. Rajaratnam Faculty of Worldwide Research in Singapore.

“This offers China’s navy a brand new foundation from which to push extra boundaries in future workout routines,” he stated.

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The present of functionality and resolve comes from a Folks’s Liberation Military (PLA) that’s much more formidable than it was through the “Third Taiwan Strait Disaster” in 1996, the final time it fired missiles close to Taiwan.

The flexibility to implement a blockade would give Beijing leverage to carry Taiwan to the negotiating desk throughout a battle.

If Taiwan, unwilling to undergo large-scale dying and destruction, accepted unification bloodlessly, Xi would safe the most important prize in his long-term purpose of “rejuvenation of the Chinese language folks”.

Though Taiwan’s public, jaded by a long time of Beijing’s threats, appeared unfazed, some observers stated its navy leaders could be apprehensive.

Michael Chang, who managed the 1996 Taiwan missile disaster when he was Secretary Normal of Taiwan’s Nationwide Safety Council, advised native media the drills may very well be a preview of a Chinese language invasion state of affairs.

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The USA and its allies equivalent to Japan condemned the drills. As a result of they didn’t wish to escalate the scenario, they didn’t straight intervene to halt the blockade rehearsal.

A former Chinese language defence official advised Reuters that their response could be chilly consolation to Taiwanese politicians and navy leaders.

“Seeing how the U.S. and its allies responded to the drills, how assured can Taiwan leaders be in relying on them to come back to the rescue ought to the PLA assault?” he stated.

The workout routines had been scheduled to finish on Sunday.

TRICKY TIMING

The episode comes at a delicate time for Xi, China’s strongest chief since Mao Zedong.

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Mao based the Folks’s Republic of China by successful a civil conflict in 1949, sending the nationalist Kuomintang authorities retreating to Taiwan, which has been self-ruled ever since.

Bringing Taiwan into Beijing’s embrace is the important thing piece of unfinished enterprise that may cement Xi’s stature alongside Mao’s and justify his transfer in 2018 to desert time period limits.

Regardless of widespread frustration over a zero-COVID coverage that has put the nation into a 3rd 12 months of self-imposed isolation and battered the world’s second-largest financial system, Xi is predicted to safe a precedent-breaking third five-year management time period at a key Communist Celebration congress this 12 months.

Domestically, Beijing should stability the outrage it whipped up over Pelosi’s go to with the embarrassment of not stopping it, observers stated.

State media performed up the drills with movies and commentary extolling China’s superior navy capabilities.

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Former Singaporean diplomat Bilahari Kausikan stated the hype is partly a face-saving effort for Xi, who can’t afford to look weak earlier than the social gathering congress.

“The arduous and undeniable fact is that for all of the bluster, China failed to discourage the Pelosi go to. So the CCP has to place up a present in its response,” he stated.

FAILURE NOT AN OPTION

Though China could have edged a step nearer to utilizing power on Taiwan, most consultants do not consider a conflict is imminent.

“Invasion inside this decade is much from sure to succeed. Failure would spell the top of Xi Jinping, his dream and probably the CCP,” stated Charles Parton, a retired British diplomat.

Xi, who has not spoken publicly about Pelosi’s go to however as chairman of the Central Army Fee is successfully the PLA’s commander-in-chief, could be properly conscious of the dangers of motion, consultants say.

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“China would’ve hoped that these drills may someway cease the worrying development of the U.S., Europe and plenty of different nations turning into extra sympathetic to Taiwan,” stated Li, the safety analyst. “Thus far, that impact stays to be seen.”

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Reporting by Yew Lun Tian
Modifying by Tony Munroe and Gerry Doyle

Our Requirements: The Thomson Reuters Belief Rules.

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Condolences pour in from allies and neighbours as Iran mourns Ebrahim Raisi

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Condolences pour in from allies and neighbours as Iran mourns Ebrahim Raisi

Iran’s allies and neighbours have sent condolences to Tehran following the death of President Ebrahim Raisi, with the leaders of China, Russia, Venezuela and Turkey among the first to respond.

Reaction in western capitals was more muted, underscoring the Islamic republic’s divisive position in global politics, but France and the EU offered their condolences.

Iranian authorities had confirmed on Monday that Raisi and Iran’s foreign minister Hossein Amirabdollahian were killed in a helicopter crash on the previous day in a remote region in Iran’s Arasbaran Forest, near the border with Azerbaijan.

Russian President Vladimir Putin was swift to express his country’s sorrow. He praised Raisi’s “invaluable personal contribution to growing friendly relations between our countries”, adding that his Iranian counterpart had been crucial in forging a “strategic partnership” between Moscow and Tehran.

The two countries have backed the regime of President Bashar al-Assad in Syria’s more than decade-long civil war. They also have deepening military ties, with Iran providing Russia with drones and munitions for its war in Ukraine.

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Assad on Monday mourned the “painful incident and the great loss that resulted from it”.

China’s President Xi Jinping had sent a message expressing “deep sorrow on behalf of the Chinese government and people”, Beijing’s foreign ministry said. Raisi had made “significant contributions to maintaining Iran’s security and stability” and his death “deprived the Chinese people of a good friend”, Xi said.

“China will continue to support the Iranian government and people in maintaining independence, stability and development,” the statement added.

Along with Russia and China, Iran is an important ally for Venezuela as Caracas struggles to rebuild the country’s oil industry amid US sanctions. President Nicolás Maduro said he and his wife Cilia were “overwhelmed by great sadness at having to bid farewell to an exemplary person, an extraordinary world leader”.

Condolences also flooded in from across the so-called axis of resistance, a network of Iran-backed regional proxies that includes Hizbollah, Hamas, Yemen’s Houthis and the Shia militias in Iraq. 

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Hizbollah said Raisi “was to us a big brother, a strong supporter, a staunch defender of our causes . . . and a protector of the resistance movements”. It also mourned the death of Amirabdollahian, calling him a “dear brother”.

Hamas conveyed its “deepest condolences and solidarity” and mourned “the immense loss”, praising the deceased Iranian officials for their steadfast support of the Palestinian cause and resistance against Israel.

Arab states, which have a history of fraught ties with Iran, also expressed sympathy. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed, president of the United Arab Emirates, were among regional powers that offered their condolences.

Saudi Arabia and the UAE have sought to de-escalate tensions with Iran in recent years.

The strong signals of support from Iran’s allies and neighbours contrasted with the subdued reaction from western capitals. Iran has endured hostile relations with the US and other western nations since the 1979 Islamic revolution. Tensions with the west have heightened over Tehran’s military support for Putin since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and since the war between Israel and Hamas erupted after the Palestinian militant group’s October 7 attack last year.

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Iran considers Israel and the US to be its leading foes, and last month launched its first-ever direct attack on the Jewish state in response to an Israeli strike on an Iranian consulate in Damascus. Iran is also the target of swingeing and long-standing economic sanctions by the US and EU, among others related to its nuclear programme.

Western capitals and Israel will be considering the consequences for Iran’s future leadership, as Raisi was widely considered a possible successor to the country’s 85-year-old supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government did not immediately give a public response to news of Raisi’s death, but opposition leader Yair Lapid said: “Iran will enter a period of instability — the strategic relations between [the US and Israel] are more important than ever.”

The White House and US state department also did not immediately issue an official response. Chuck Schumer, US Senate majority leader, said only that he had been told by US intelligence agencies that there was no evidence of foul play, NBC reported.

European Council president Charles Michel said the EU “expresses its sincere condolences for the death of President Raisi and foreign minister Amirabdollahian”.

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The French foreign ministry said France “expressed its condolences” to Iran and the families of the victims.

In Italy, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni said: “We are in constant contact with our European and G7 allies because we are talking about an incident that is part of a particularly complex regional framework.”

She added: “I hope that the future Iranian leadership wants to commit itself to the stabilisation and pacification of the region.”

Elsewhere in the Middle East, Lebanon declared three days of mourning after Raisi’s death.

Turkey, which like the UAE has recently sought rapprochement with Tehran, also offered its condolences. “As a colleague who personally witnessed his efforts for the peace of the Iranian people and our region during his time in office, I remember [Raisi] with respect and gratitude,” said Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.

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Reporting by Adam Samson, Maxine Kelly, Chloe Cornish, Neri Zilber, Max Seddon, Amy Kazmin, Raya Jalabi, Michael Stott and Joe Leahy

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City of Kyle falls short of ‘Kyle’ world record

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City of Kyle falls short of ‘Kyle’ world record
City of Kyle falls short of ‘Kyle’ world record – CBS Texas

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Hundreds of Kyles conveined this weekend in the City of Kyle, Texas in attempt to break a world record. Unfortunately, they fell a bit short.

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Taiwan’s new president takes office with call for peace with China

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Taiwan’s new president takes office with call for peace with China

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Taiwan’s new president, Lai Ching-te, has called on Beijing to work with him to achieve peace and common prosperity rather than menace his country as he was sworn into office amid high tensions across the Taiwan Strait.

China should “stop its verbal attacks and military intimidation . . . shoulder global responsibilities together with Taiwan, commit to maintaining peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait and in the region and ensure that the world is free from the fear of war,” Lai said in his inaugural address on Monday.

Lai appealed to Beijing to engage with Taiwan’s democratically elected government, calling for the resumption of mutual tourism exchanges and programmes bringing Chinese students to Taiwan.

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Senior officials in Lai’s incoming government said the pledge to resume exchanges was a concrete gesture of goodwill. The Chinese government has blamed Taiwan for an almost complete breakdown in cross-Strait interaction, though Taipei insists that Beijing has hindered a resumption of programmes.

The Chinese Communist party claims that Taiwan is part of China and threatens to use force to bring it under its control if Taipei resists unification indefinitely. It has denounced Lai as a “dangerous separatist”, rhetoric even more hostile than its rejection of his predecessor, Tsai Ing-wen.

As he sought to reassure the US, Lai invoked much of the language that Tsai — whose prudent China policy drew plaudits abroad — used to describe Taiwan’s status and its relationship with Beijing.

Lai pledged that his government would “neither yield nor provoke, and maintain the status quo” across the Taiwan Strait and “uphold the four commitments” made by Tsai, including sticking to the country’s free and democratic constitutional system.

Other commitments are that the Republic of China — Taiwan’s official name — and the People’s Republic of China should not be subordinate to each other; to resist annexation or encroachment upon Taiwan’s sovereignty; and to ensure that the country’s future must be decided in accordance with the will of the Taiwanese people.

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“Since the future of the two sides of the Strait has a decisive impact on the global situation, we . . . will be the helmsmen of peace,” Lai said.

Lai also called on Beijing to acknowledge the existence of the ROC, another phrase borrowed from Tsai. Founded on the mainland, the ROC has persisted in Taiwan after it was defeated in China’s 1949 Communist revolution.

But he added his own note on national identity, saying: “No matter if [it is] the Republic of China, Republic of China Taiwan or Taiwan, these names [that] we ourselves or our international friends call our country all resonate and shine the same.”

Although the CCP refuses to recognise the ROC, Chinese leaders are even more alarmed by references to “Taiwan”, which are often interpreted as a signal of support for Taiwanese independence.

“Lai’s statement that prosperous coexistence should be a common goal for the two sides echoes Beijing’s recent call for him to choose between peaceful development or confrontation,” said Danny Russel, vice-president for international security and diplomacy at the Asia Society Policy Institute.

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But his pledge to neither yield nor provoke while maintaining the status quo is “certain to fall flat with Beijing”, added Russel, who was an assistant secretary of state under US president Barack Obama. “There is virtually nothing that Lai could have said, short of ‘unconditional surrender’, that would satisfy Beijing.”

Lai also faces attempts by opposition parties to expand the powers of the legislature — in which he lacks a majority — and weaken security legislation. On Monday he urged his domestic rivals to avoid political gain at the cost of national interests.

He pledged to expand Taiwan’s global role by leveraging its strength in the semiconductor industry and committed to making the country’s economic growth more inclusive and strengthening social security.

US secretary of state Antony Blinken said that Washington looked forward to “working with President Lai and across Taiwan’s political spectrum to advance our shared interests and values, deepen our long-standing unofficial relationship and maintain peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait”.

Japan’s chief cabinet secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi called Taiwan an “extremely crucial partner and important friend” in congratulatory remarks that expressed hopes of further deepening their relationship.

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