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Analysis: Western spy agencies weaponize intelligence in attempt to undermine Putin

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Analysis: Western spy agencies weaponize intelligence in attempt to undermine Putin

America and its allies are portray an image of a slowed down, demoralized and dysfunctional Russian army taking disastrous losses on the battlefield, and are concurrently conjuring a imaginative and prescient of rising political pressure contained in the Kremlin. They declare the Russian chief is remoted, poorly suggested and missing actual intelligence on simply how badly the warfare goes.

It’s a powerful place for a Russian chief who has typically deployed data warfare himself, notably whereas meddling in US and European elections. The exceptional element of the declassified intelligence assessments should even be particularly galling to Putin, a former KGB officer and intelligence chief. They usually depart open the likelihood that Western intelligence companies have the capability to see deep into the Kremlin’s warfare effort and inner politics, which is prone to infuriate the Russian chief and will open additional cracks in his regime.

The willingness of Western governments to be so open about what they’re seeing inside Ukraine and Moscow has stunned even some veteran spies.

“It makes intelligence professionals, even former ones like me, nervous, as a result of, in fact, it is so ingrained in us to guard sources and strategies,” Steve Corridor, former chief of Russia operations for the CIA, instructed CNN’s Ana Cabrera Thursday.

A part of the intrigue concerning the US showdown with Putin and the intelligence angle is being fed by the character of the covert neighborhood itself. Outsiders don’t have any approach of independently assessing the complete accuracy of the knowledge being pushed into the general public view by their leaders. So we do not know the place it is all coming from or from whom. However in fact, that is the purpose, and it is protecting the Russians guessing too.

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The try and painting the warfare in Ukraine as a catastrophe for Russia is coming at a second when Western officers are discounting Moscow’s claims that it’s deescalating the battle in Kyiv and elsewhere. As an alternative, they are saying, Putin’s forces are “repositioning” — probably for an intensified assault in japanese Ukrainian areas the place Moscow has been pummeling civilians and razing cities. Such a tactic could possibly be designed to unite Russian-held areas with Crimea, which Putin seized in 2014, and to provide Moscow a direct hall to the Black Sea via Ukraine.

The within story of the warfare

In current days, Western officers have sketched a exceptional portrait of the warfare.

In Australia on Monday, one among Britain’s prime spy chiefs, Jeremy Fleming, stated that Putin had “massively misjudged” the warfare, the resistance of the Ukrainian individuals and his personal army’s capability, and had been poorly served by his subordinates.

“We have seen Russian troopers — in need of weapons and morale — refusing to hold out orders, sabotaging their very own gear and even unintentionally taking pictures down their very own plane,” stated Fleming, who heads GCHQ, the UK’s equal of the Nationwide Safety Company. Fleming’s frankness was extraordinary coming from a number one espionage company chief. However it’s being mirrored in the USA the place there have been new experiences on Wednesday that opened a window into the warfare and Putin’s inside circle.

An official instructed CNN’s Jeremy Diamond that Putin is being “misinformed” by advisers about how badly the Russian army is performing and the affect of sanctions on the Russian financial system. White Home communications director Kate Bedingfield then stated on digital camera that the Russian chief’s advisers had been “too afraid to inform him the reality.” She stated there was now a “persistent pressure” between Putin and his army management.

On Wednesday, this new stream of declassified assessments made headlines. On Thursday, President Joe Biden was requested about them in a public setting, as officers presumably knew he can be. The sequence gave the President the prospect to additional amplify the US narrative.

“There’s lots of hypothesis,” Biden stated, although in fact that hypothesis had been pushed by data that the White Home had allowed into the general public area. Requested how badly Putin was being misinformed by his advisers, Biden replied, “I am not saying this with a certainty — he appears to be self-isolating, and there is some indication that he has fired or put beneath home arrest a few of his advisers.” Whereas Biden stated that the US did not have that a lot arduous proof, his feedback unleashed an entire new torrent of consideration on Putin’s present scenario.

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So what precisely are Western governments attempting to do with this novel use of declassified intelligence assessments? Particularly on condition that in lots of earlier geopolitical crises, intelligence was stored secret by routine?

As with the pre-invasion messaging, it is clear that the US doesn’t need the Russians to have the ability to create a dominant narrative of their very own concerning the warfare via disinformation. Creating an image of a failing warfare additionally helps keep assist for the powerful Western stand towards Putin. It could additionally enhance morale amongst Ukrainians who’re resisting Russia’s onslaught. And it offers Western leaders a political opening to argue their insurance policies are working as they handle public opinion on the warfare.

By offering a glance into the disarray amongst Russian troops, the allies might be able to construct inner political strain on the Kremlin. Given the Moscow authorities’s crushing of unbiased media, there shall be few illusions that the Russian individuals will hear the US model of occasions, although tech-savvy youthful Russians with VPN passwords permitting entry to overseas web companies would possibly.

However a drumbeat of humiliation for Russia may additional sow discord contained in the army, political and intelligence elites. In current days, it has nearly appeared as if Western officers, by discussing the scenario within the warfare so brazenly, have been attempting to handle Putin and his advisers instantly.

The issues of an intelligence-driven technique

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It is unlikely the intelligence stream will dry up any time quickly. That is as a result of it appears to be rooted in a morale drawback inside Russian armed forces, which grew to become apparent due to eavesdropping.

“They’re whipping out their cell telephones and attempting to speak with one another, each tactically, ‘The place are you? The place’s your unit?’ and maybe additionally again residence in Moscow. That makes it very easy to gather,” Corridor stated.

“After which, it is an attention-grabbing political choice to say, look, it is price maybe exhibiting the Russians how good we’re at amassing these things, with a purpose to get the phrase out to residents of each international locations, residents of the world, as to what’s actually happening within the Russian army proper now,” Corridor added.

“It is an attention-grabbing choice, but it surely’s been very illuminating.”

Nonetheless there may be purpose for warning in decoding the warfare solely primarily based on the West’s declassified assessments.

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Intelligence, by definition, is a murky enterprise. The details about the Russian operations in Ukraine and the obvious isolation of Putin in Moscow solely inform the skin world what the Western intelligence companies need to launch. There’s, due to this fact, no approach for outsiders to know whether or not these snapshots give the complete image or a extra selective one.

Biden announces historic oil reserve release and presses oil companies to do their part to reduce gas prices

And the knowledge that does filter out remains to be restricted. An official cited by CNN’s Diamond and Kevin Liptak on Wednesday declined to offer further particulars of Putin being misinformed by his advisers apart from what was reported. The intelligence neighborhood declassified and downgraded a abstract of their findings however not the fabric itself.

As all the time, intelligence companies are taking strenuous steps to keep away from figuring out their sources and the strategies that had been used to gather the intelligence.

There have been a number of instances in current American historical past — for instance, earlier than the US invasion of Iraq in 2003, when US intelligence assessments have confirmed to be defective. On this disaster, nevertheless, the covert neighborhood has repaired a few of its fame. For weeks, the US warned that Putin was on the brink of ship his forces throughout the Ukrainian border. Even the Ukrainians had been skeptical.

Then hours earlier than the invasion really occurred, the US issued a warning that the incursion was imminent — and was confirmed right.

Nonetheless, the issues encountered by the Russian invading power have stunned Western intelligence companies and have brought on a reassessment of assumptions concerning the supposed would possibly of Russia’s army forces and management.

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The top of US European Command, Gen. Tod Wolters, stated at a Senate listening to this week that there could possibly be an intelligence hole that led the US to overestimate Russia’s power and underestimate Ukrainian defenses.

However even that oversight solely underscores the surprisingly poor efficiency of Russia’s forces, and attracts consideration to it, additional advancing the West’s targets.

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Finland probes Russian shadow fleet oil tanker after cable-cutting incident

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Finland probes Russian shadow fleet oil tanker after cable-cutting incident

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Finnish authorities are investigating an oil tanker that is part of Russia’s shadow fleet over whether it cut an electricity cable between Finland and Estonia.

The Eagle S was stopped by Finnish authorities after the Estlink 2 subsea electricity cable in the Gulf of Finland was disconnected on Wednesday. The tanker, which is registered in the Cook Islands and is carrying oil from Russia to Egypt according to ship tracking data, was seen passing over the cable at the time of the incident.

The aged tanker is part of Russia’s shadow fleet and is the focus of Finland’s investigation, according to people familiar with the probe. The Eagle S is also under investigation over whether it cut three communications cables in the Gulf of Finland, the people added.

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The shadow fleet is a group of old and often poorly maintained ships used by Russia to circumvent international sanctions on its oil exports.

The Christmas Day incident appears to be the latest in a series of pipelines and cables being targeted in the Baltic Sea by foreign vessels, sparking fears of deliberate attacks on critical infrastructure between Nato countries.

“We must be able to prevent the risks posed by ships belonging to the Russian shadow fleet,” said Finland’s President Alexander Stubb in a post on X after a meeting with security chiefs on Thursday.

Last year a Chinese container ship, the Newnew Polar Bear, cut a gas pipeline between Finland and Estonia but was not stopped by authorities as it was in international waters.

A Chinese bulk carrier, the Yi Peng 3, last month passed over two data cables between Finland and Germany and Sweden and Lithuania about the times they were severed. It stopped for a month in international waters between Denmark and Sweden.

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Chinese investigators finally boarded the ship last week, with Swedish, Danish, German and Finnish representatives present as observers. But Sweden’s foreign minister criticised Beijing for not allowing the lead Swedish investigator to board or to inspect the vessel, which has now left the region.

The Eagle S case is different as the ship voluntarily stopped inside Finnish waters, according to people familiar with the investigation, leaving no question as to jurisdiction. Ownership of the Eagle S is murky but it appears to be the only vessel owned by a Dubai company. Attempts to reach the owner on Thursday were unsuccessful. 

Authorities have not determined the cause of the disconnection of the Estlink 2 cable. Estonia has also said it will not affect its electricity supply. The cable is used to export electricity from Finland, which recently brought its latest nuclear power plant online, to Estonia.

Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo said the country’s electricity supply would not be affected.

Finnish authorities are keeping an open mind on the latest incident, not least because dozens of poorly maintained vessels in the shadow fleet sail in the Baltic Sea.

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Environmental campaigners have issued repeated warnings about the dangers in the region and elsewhere of the dilapidated vessels.

In the Mediterranean, a Russian cargo ship under US sanctions for working with the Russian military sank between Spain and Algeria on Tuesday.

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Popeye, Tintin and more will enter the public domain in the new year

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Popeye, Tintin and more will enter the public domain in the new year

An enlarged cartoon of Tintin pictured on display at Paris’ Pompidou Cultural Center in 2006. The Belgian cub reporter is among the characters and works entering the public domain in 2025.

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Jan. 1 marks the dawn of a new era for Popeye and Tintin. It’s the day the nonagenarian cartoon characters officially enter the U.S. public domain along with a treasure trove of other iconic works.

The copyrights of thousands of films, songs and books expire in 2025, making them instantly available for people to use, share and adapt. The list includes classics like Virginia Woolf’s book A Room of One’s Own, the Fats Waller song “Ain’t Misbehavin’” and the Marx Brothers’ first feature film, The Cocoanuts.

The main thing they have in common is their age — under U.S. copyright law, their terms all expire after 95 years. All of the works entering the public domain next year are from 1929, except for sound recordings, which (because they are covered by a different law) come from 1924.

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“Copyright’s awesome … but the fact that rights eventually expire, that’s a good thing, too, because that’s the wellspring for creativity,” says Jennifer Jenkins, the director of Duke’s Center for the Study of the Public Domain, which spends months poring over records to compile the most famous examples.

Once in the public domain, these works become fodder for remakes, spinoffs and other adaptations.

That explains the recent wave of horror films starring Mickey Mouse and Winnie the Pooh, characters that entered the public domain in 2024 and 2023 respectively. The trend seems poised to continue: Jenkins says there are already three Popeye slasher flicks in the works.

“They’re capitalizing on the incongruity of this comic book character in a different genre and they get a lot of buzz,” she adds. “[But] when I sit back and look at the universe of remakes of public domain characters or works … the things that we still talk about that stand the test of time don’t tend to be these buzzworthy, kind of ew, grossed-out features.”

More enduring examples include West Side Story drawn from Shakespeare’s Romeo & Juliet, screen adaptations of Jane Austen’s Emma, Percival Everett’s 2024 book James (a retelling of Huckleberry Finn) and Wicked, the musical-turned-movie prequel to L. Frank Baum’s Wizard of Oz. 

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But these artifacts don’t only become fodder for big-name directors and authors — they’re available for anyone who wants to use them, from artists to high school orchestra directors.

Jenkins says she gets “adorable emails” from people who are drawing their own little Winnie the Pooh cartoons, and parents whose kids are talented musicians, eager to finally be able to perform certain compositions publicly and post them online.

In other words, the impact of public domain works extends far beyond the box office and Billboard charts.

“I’m excited about those things that not everybody’s going to notice — people really re-discovering some of these older works and engaging with them and appreciating them and making them their own,” she adds.

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Here’s a look at some of the works that are just days away from the public domain:

Characters

A Popeye balloon flies over the 33rd Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade in Times Square.

A helium-filled Popeye balloon participates in the 33rd Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade in New York in 1959, three decades after his comic strip debut.

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Tintin the brave cub reporter — and his dog, Snowy — will enter the public domain in the U.S. well before they will in the European Union, where they are copyrighted until 2054. That’s because EU copyright terms extend 70 years past creators’ deaths, and Belgian cartoonist Hergé died in 1983.

Closer to home there’s E.C. Segar’s Popeye, who made his debut in a January 1929 Thimble Theatre cartoon strip. He sports his signature pipe, sailor outfit, anchor tattoo and sense of humor, responding when asked if he’s a sailor: “Ja think I’m a cowboy?”

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He could have a whole new set of adventures starting in 2025. But there’s a catch: Popeye didn’t start deriving his strength from spinach until 1932.

As Jenkins explains, many cartoon characters develop over time and have been in copyrighted works year after year, meaning certain aspects of them may come into the public domain in different years. So only the original 1929 versions of Popeye and Tintin are fair game, at least for now.

“Definitely the Popeye from 1929 and everything that he says, all of his characteristics, his personality, his sarcasm … that’s public domain,” she says. “The spinach, if you want to be on the safe side, you might want to wait.”

Films

A promotional card for Clara Bow's movie "The Wild Party."

The Wild Party, Clara Bow’s first talkie, was released in 1929, making it public domain in 2025.

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Similarly, the original Steamboat Willie version of Mickey Mouse arrived in the public domain with much fanfare in 2024. In 2025, a dozen more Mickey animations will follow suit — including The Karnival Kid, in which he speaks for the first time.

“His very first words are ‘Hot dogs! Hot dogs!’ — so I guess that’s kind of cute,” Jenkins says. “And then he didn’t wear the white gloves in 1928, but next year, in 2025, we get the version of Mickey Mouse with the signature white gloves in the public domain.”

Sound is a big theme across the films making their public domain debut next year, since 1929 marked the end of the silent film era and the dawn of the sound film age.

The list includes the first sound films from major directors like Alfred Hitchcock (Blackmail), John Ford (The Black Watch) and Cecil B. DeMille (Dynamite), as well as Clara Bow’s first talkie, The Wild Party, and The Broadway Melody, the first sound film to win an Academy Award for Best Picture.

Other notables include Walt Disney’s The Skeleton Dance (the first of the Silly Symphony shorts); King Vidor’s Hallelujah, the first major studio film with an all-Black cast; and Alan Crosland’s On With the Show, the first all-talking, all-color, feature-length film.

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Books

This combination of photos show authors Ernest Hemingway in 1950, left, William Faulkner in 1950, center, and John Steinbeck in 1962.

From left: Ernest Hemingway in 1950, William Faulkner in 1950, and John Steinbeck in 1962.

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Among the many literary works entering the public domain next year are two of the most acclaimed books about World War I: Ernest Hemingway’s A Farewell to Arms, and the first English translation of Erich Maria Remarque’s All Quiet on the Western Front — both authors served in the war themselves.

The list includes several detective mysteries: Red Harvest and The Maltese Falcon by Dashiell Hammett, Ellery Queen’s The Roman Hat Mystery, and Seven Dials Mystery by Agatha Christie.

There are also some literary debuts, including John Steinbeck’s first novel, Cup of Gold, and Richard Hughes’ first novel A High Wind in Jamaica.

Musical compositions

George Gershwin writes sheet music while sitting at a piano.

George Gershwin’s “An American in Paris” is among the musical compositions entering the public domain in 2025.

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The latest crop of compositions spans the era’s jazz standards, show tunes, pop music and more.

They include: Arthur Freed’s Singin’ in the Rain (which was featured in the film The Hollywood Revue of 1929, also entering public domain), George Gershwin’s An American in Paris, Maurice Ravel’s Bolero, Jack Yellen’s Happy Days Are Here Again (the campaign song for FDR’s 1932 presidential run), Cole Porter’s What Is This Thing Called Love? and Tiptoe Through the Tulips (the Joseph Burke version, not the 1968 Tiny Tim one).

“But if you felt like singing like Tiny Tim for some reason, and you could, you can record your own version of Tiptoe Through the Tulips next year because that song’s going to be public domain,” Jenkins says.

The Center for the Study of Public Domain specifies that musical compositions refer to “the music and lyrics that you might see on a piece of sheet music, not the recordings of those songs.” Those are covered by a separate copyright.

Sound recordings

Marian Anderson poses for a photo outside.

Marian Anderson became the first Black singer to perform at the Metropolitan Opera House in New York in 1955. One of her early recordings from 1924 will enter the public domain next year.

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Under the 2018 Music Modernization Act, sound recordings are protected by copyright for 100 years. It’s the particular recordings that eventually enter the public domain, not the song’s music or lyrics or later recordings from those artists.

These are some of the 1924 performances that will become available for legal reuse in January: Marian Anderson’s “Nobody Knows the Trouble I’ve Seen,” George Gershwin’s “Rhapsody in Blue,” Jelly Roll Morton’s “Shreveport Stomp,” “Deep Blue Sea Blues” by Clara Smith, and “Everybody Loves My Baby (But My Baby Don’t Love Nobody But Me)” recorded by Louis Armstrong and Clarence Williams’ Blue Five.

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Dozens feared dead as Azerbaijan Airlines plane crashes in Kazakhstan

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Dozens feared dead as Azerbaijan Airlines plane crashes in Kazakhstan

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An Azerbaijan Airlines plane carrying 62 passengers and five crew has crashed while making an emergency landing at a Kazakhstan airport, with 29 survivors, including two children, taken to hospital.

Videos on local media showed a large explosion after the aircraft crashed into an empty field. Images from the scene showed passengers climbing out of the tail of the fuselage aided by emergency workers.

Those aboard were from Azerbaijan, Russia, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, Russian state Ria news agency reported, citing Kazakhstan’s transport ministry.

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Local media outlets reported that nine of those taken to hospital were in serious condition and that search and rescue operations were under way.

The plane, an Embraer 190, was travelling to Grozny in the southern Russian republic of Chechnya from Azerbaijan’s capital Baku, but was diverted to Aktau after flying into heavy fog.

Early media reports suggested that the plane hit a flock of birds, which affected control of the aircraft.

“After a collision with birds, due to an emergency situation on board the aircraft, its commander decided to go to an alternate airfield and Aktau was chosen,” Ria reported, citing Russia’s aviation agency Rosaviatsia. Local media also shared unconfirmed reports of an explosion of an oxygen canister onboard, leading many passengers to lose consciousness.

Baku has sent an official delegation to Kazakhstan to investigate the incident, Azerbaijan’s APA news agency said. The country’s president, Ilham Aliyev, left an informal summit of the Commonwealth of Independent States in Russia to return to Baku. He expressed his condolences to the those affected by the crash.

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Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Russian President Vladimir Putin had also extended his condolences to Azerbaijan’s leader.

Chechnya’s leader Ramzan Kadyrov expressed his condolences to the relatives of the deceased on social media. “We pray to the Almighty for [the survivors’] recovery.”

Photos on social media showed relatives gathering in Grozny airport to wait for news of their loved ones.

One man at Grozny airport said he had just received a video in which he could see his nephew had survived the crash. “Of course I am very happy,” he told a Ria news reporter.

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