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After backing him in 2020, a new poll shows some young voters are Biden's to lose

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After backing him in 2020, a new poll shows some young voters are Biden's to lose

Supporters listen as President Biden speaks during a Black Voters for Biden campaign event at Girard College, Wednesday, May 29, in Philadelphia. Biden won Black voters under 45 with around 80% in 2020. In a recent University of Chicago poll, that support is more of a question in 2024.

Evan Vucci/AP/AP


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Evan Vucci/AP/AP

Five months out from the presidential election, the state of the youth vote, in some ways, remains a question mark.

It’s a regularly covered topic as President Biden continues to receive low marks from Gen Z and millennial voters, even as the same age group decidedly voted for him four years ago.

But among younger Black, Latino and Asian American voters, who overwhelmingly sided with Biden in 2020, and at higher rates than young white voters did, support has considerably faltered, according to the University of Chicago’s latest GenForward survey.

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The survey, exclusively obtained by NPR, which was conducted from May 10-22, polled the political attitudes of 2,089 Americans under 40, with largely equal samples of white, Black, Latino and Asian American and Pacific Islander (AAPI) individuals.

It found that just one-third of all young Americans said they would back Biden if the election was held at the time the survey was conducted. The poll also reflects a virtual tie in the race. Biden leads former President Donald Trump by just two points, and 34% of respondents are currently backing a third-party candidate or said they would support “someone else.”

Plus, despite speculation over how U.S. support for Israel may negatively affect Biden’s youth coalition, the poll found that the war in Gaza is not the top voting issue for most young Americans. Instead, economic concerns, particularly over inflation, remain front and center.

That said, the economy is one of several policy areas, along with immigration and the war in Gaza, where respondents were less likely to pick Biden as the best candidate to handle the issue, illustrating a potentially deeper problem for his campaign with younger Americans.

Biden’s 2020 coalition is missing in 2024

Broken down by race and ethnicity, Biden has particularly lost ground with Black and Latino young people.

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In 2020, 89% of Black voters aged 18-29 voted for Biden, as well as 78% of those aged 30-44. In the latest GenForward survey, just 33% said they would support him if the election were held today and 23% chose Trump.

Trump is beating Biden among young Latino voters by a four-point margin. It’s a significant drop in support for Biden compared to four years ago, when he won 69% of Latino voters under 30, and 62% of those 30-44.

When looking at a sample of only registered voters, the numbers improve for Biden and push him back ahead of Trump with Latinos, but the margins remain slim. Biden’s support with Black voters only ticks up two points to 35%.

“Young people are saying to Joe Biden, ‘win me, win my vote,’” said Cathy Cohen, a professor at the University of Chicago who founded and leads the GenForward poll. “’Don’t assume I’m going to vote for you now.’”

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That statement rings true particularly for individuals still searching for a different candidate, even as the presidential primary season is virtually finished. Among both Black and Latino Americans, about a quarter said they would vote for someone else.

There are several paths for the “someone else” voter and Cohen argued opinions could likely change as the election nears closer.

“This is how young people are kind of showing up right now as we begin to enter the summer,” she added. “Come November, when there is something at stake… those numbers could look a little different.”

But in GenForward’s June survey four years ago – which did not include third-party candidates – Biden did have considerably more support. He received backing from a majority of Black, Latino and Asian Americans and an average of just 15% said they would vote for someone else.

The latest poll’s inclusion of third-party candidates, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West may also indicate how additional names on the ballot could splinter the youth vote in the fall. A similar result was reflected in the latest Harvard Youth Poll, Biden defeats Trump in a head-to-head matchup, but when third-party candidates are included, the margin decreases.

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Economic issues are driving voters, not the Israel-Hamas war

Inflation ranks first across all groups when asked what issue is most important when voting this fall. Concerns around economic growth come second for Black, Latino and AAPI young people, while “threats to American Democracy” does for whites.

To Cohen, a lot of Biden’s problems revolve around the current state of the economy, and though inflation is slowing, she argues these shifts haven’t fully resonated.

“These young people are dealing with increasing rents, increasing food prices, increasing gas costs, and their incomes are less flexible, I would argue, than older folks,” she explained.

Gen Z and millennials are not alone in prioritizing economic issues. It consistently ranks number one across generations and racial groups. In this latest poll, issues often linked to younger voters, like abortion rights, curbing gun violence, addressing climate change and ending the war in Gaza, appear lower on the list of important issues.

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When asked to choose which presidential candidate would do the best on issues relating to immigration and inflation, Trump has the most support overall. But, in the question, which gave respondents the options of Trump, Biden, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Cornel West and “none of them,” Trump is closely followed by “none of them.”

One of Biden’s areas of relative strength, abortion access, has been a cornerstone of his campaign. Biden leads by just three points followed by the option, “none of them.”

In the 2022 midterms, safeguarding abortion access was the top motivator for voters under 30, and they turned out overwhelmingly for Democratic candidates.

It remains an important electoral issue in the GenForward poll: a third of overall respondents said they would only vote for a candidate who shares their views on abortion, and nearly half agree that individuals should, “always be able to obtain an abortion as a matter of personal choice”

On the Israel-Hamas war, just 4% of young Americans overall said it’s the most important voting issue for them. A knowledge gap on the topic also exists. Respondents were most likely to choose “don’t know” in response to questions regarding support and sympathy for Israel and the Palestinian people, as well as who to blame for the conflict when given the options of Hamas, the Israeli government, the U.S. government, the Iranian government and all of the above.

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Among AAPI young people, the issue holds more weight, 10% say it’s the most important issue when voting in the election and six in 10 want a permanent ceasefire.

And young people overall support an end to the war, with 53% backing a permanent ceasefire.

That all said, Biden holds low approval ratings over his handling of the conflict, with just 12% support, compared to 49% disapproval and 39% choosing neither option.

It all underscores the complex choice many undecided young Americans have this fall, Cohen argued, especially for voters of color, who may typically align themselves with Democratic values.

The likely choice: get back on board with Biden or effectively stay home.

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“In a swing state, if the Biden campaign is dependent on those young people and they don’t vote, in some ways it is a vote for Trump,” Cohen said.

“I think we don’t take seriously enough,” she continued, “what does it mean if enough young Black people or enough young folks of color decide just not to vote?”

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Native Americans celebrate victory at the Battle of Little Bighorn, 150 years later

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Native Americans celebrate victory at the Battle of Little Bighorn, 150 years later

Horse mounted riders circle atop a hill at the Battle of Little Bighorn National Monument, near Last Stand Hill, on June 25.

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CROW AGENCY, Mont. — Under the expansive Montana sky, hundreds of members and descendants of 19 tribal nations gather at one of America’s most famous battlefields. They’re here to watch as Native American riders on horseback charge onto the same land their ancestors did 150 years ago when they defeated the U.S. Army’s 7th Cavalry under the command of Lt. Col. George Armstrong Custer.

The riders race across the dry landscape — kicking up clouds of dust before circling at the top of a hill at Little Bighorn Battlefield National Monument. Some of them are wearing headdresses and regalia, others are wearing tank tops and T-shirts. Many of them are carrying their tribal flags in a show of unity — the same unity that made possible their swift victory on June 25, 1876.

“It was so important then, 150 years ago. … It’s important today still,” said Gaby Strong, who is Sisseton-Wahpeton and Mdewakanton. “Our victories are still possible.”

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Custer’s goal was to force Native Americans onto reservations. After the 1874 discovery of gold in the Black Hills, Indigenous peoples living off reservations were directed to report to their U.S. field offices, called Indian Agencies, or be deemed hostile.

Native American leaders, including Crazy Horse and Sitting Bull, organized villages and tribes together in a resistance effort.

Several battles broke out in what is now Montana and South Dakota as military forces attempted to push remaining groups onto reservations.

“Crazy Horse, he went from band to band, leader to leader, to tell them about this idea of our relatives coming together for a much greater cause than themselves,” said Christopher Eagle Bear. He is Sicunga Lakota from the Rosebud Sioux Tribe.

In 1876, Custer was tracking a nomadic village of various peoples, including the Oceti Sakowin (Sioux), Cheyenne and Arapaho. Custer was tracking that camp with the help of about three dozen Arikara and Crow scouts. Scouting for the U.S. government was a common practice among many tribes.

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Custer divided his forces of around 700 men into three columns, hoping to surround the village.

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Can the so-called nanobubbler save the Reflecting Pool? | CNN Politics

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Can the so-called nanobubbler save the Reflecting Pool? | CNN Politics

The $1.7 million “ozone nanobubbler” being used in an effort to make the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool water crystal clear has a unique ability to shoot 500 million microscopic bubbles into every teaspoon of water. The injected oxygen is supposed to oxidize — or, unscientifically speaking, smash through — algae, bacteria and other chemicals.

The Trump administration has touted the technology as “state of the art.” At the onset of the project, the administration dispatched a small company based in Brookfield, Ohio — one of the only in the country with this type of technology — to lead the high-profile, high-stakes gambit to see whether the technology could work on the 6.5 million-gallon landmark that for decades has evaded cleanliness. Only five years old, the technology has never been formally used or researched on a pool.

As questions mount over President Donald Trump’s broader renovation project — which has been overcome by other problems, including a peeling bottom and allegations of vandalism — Greenwater Services, the company in charge of the pool’s water quality, has been thrust into the national spotlight. The company has recently taken on a crisis communications firm to help manage the unfamiliar political waters while it attempts to focus on the pool’s actual water.

Chas Antinone, president and chief operating officer, had a one-word answer for CNN when asked whether the company’s part of the project had gone according to plan: “Yes.”

“I’ve got no political affiliation in this thing whatsoever either way. And I don’t really care about that part,” Antinone said. “Our job was to come here and bring a technology that we think can keep the Reflecting Pool looking clean and reflect the way it is supposed to.”

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A review of campaign finance reports, both federal and in Ohio, showed no contributions made by Antinone.

But the company and its no-bid contract have been dragged into a political morass as algae returned for a time to the pool, Trump campaign donations by the owner have come to light, and the pool has become a symbol of America’s divide and what some see as the president’s failures.

And questions remain about whether the new technology will work long term, with no timeline set by the Department of Interior for the more extensive repairs to decades-old pipes that are necessary to keep the technology running.

Joe Trusty, who is the editor of Pool Magazine and has a background in pool service and construction, said the nanobubbler has been “a tremendous buzzword around our industry.”

“It’s not surprising to me that they were brought into the conversation, nor is it surprising to me that they implemented it,” he said. “Whether or not it is going to be able to be effective in as large a body of water and as shallow a body of water such as the Reflecting Pool remains to be seen.”

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Greenwater Services walked CNN through a detailed timeline of its work with the Trump administration. That accounting revealed that some accommodations were needed to meet the president’s demands to have the pool refurbished by the July Fourth celebrations marking America’s 250th birthday.

From the get-go, the company had to be nimble.

The permanent ozone nannobubbler unit had not yet been fully fabricated in Ohio for the job, and yet the pool was being refilled with water. So, the company brought in temporary equipment to get the system running before the permanent structure was finished.

Four stand-alone mobile machines, which could be seen with the naked eye, were put in the Reflecting Pool on June 6, two days after the pool was refilled with water. The units, which work differently from the permanent ones, made small white plumes of bubbles as nozzles shot nanobubbles into the water. The company said the four machines were operating at the same amount of power that the permanent system would have had.

At that point the water was clear; everything was working well, a spokesperson said.

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However, on June 12, a source close to the project said the company was asked by the National Park Service to remove the temporary structures. They were not given a reason. The four units were taken offline and off-site by the company. The algae bloom appeared, according to a person close to the project and video images of the pool captured that afternoon by a CNN camera.

Greenwater Services would not comment on the time gap when the temporary systems were removed. The Interior Department and White House did not respond to CNN’s questions about why the call was made to take the machines out of the water. The New York Times first reported on the removal of the temporary systems.

During that 24-hour period, the Trump administration hosted a high-profile Ultimate Fighting Championship photo op on the National Mall.

The next day, the company reinstalled the temporary machines.

As the four temporary units continued to run, the permanent unit arrived on June 16 and installation began. On June 25, the temporary units were removed, and the permanent system began operating on its own, according to the company.

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“What I think everyone learned is that when the system is allowed to run, it cleans the water and keeps it clean,” Erin Kramer, a spokesperson for the company, told CNN.

The permanent ozone nanobubbler technology, unlike the temporary units, is not in the Reflecting Pool itself. The technology is instead housed in a small pump house, in the US Park Police stables just off the Reflecting Pool.

CNN exclusively obtained photos of last week’s installation of the technology in the pump house with the National Park Service, showing the high-tech system that is typically kept behind closed doors.

The water, which the Interior Department confirmed is pulled from municipal water, comes in and is filtered again. This is when Greenwater Service’s technology steps in.

An oxygen concentrator pulls air in and then sends an electrical current that breaks up that O2 into pure oxygen molecules to form “ozone.” That ozone is then injected into the master water pipe, through a series of patented nozzles with pressure.

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That master pipe splits into numerous preexisting smaller pipes that run around the exterior of the Reflecting Pool, providing inputs for water to enter.

The Interior Department has previously noted the need to repair and potentially replace thousands of feet of pipes that have been in disrepair for several years.

The ozone nanobubbler relies on at least some of the pipes being viable.

Antinone said a number of the pipes are viable but was unsure how many are up and running. It is his understanding that the National Park Service intends to test to see which ones are working, he said.

The Interior Department has not responded to multiple questions about the status of the pipes and the plan for broader repair.

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Antinone said the piping system would be one of the first things to look at should the algae return.

The ozone nanobubbler technology is very new, but industry experts say it is promising.

Heather Raymond, the water quality director for the Ohio State University College of Food, Agricultural, and Environmental Sciences, has tested and researched Greenwater Service’s technology for years.

One of the key factors that make it so powerful, Raymond said, is the ability for the ozone in the powerful algae-busting bubbles to stay in the water, reacting with the water, potentially for days.

Previous versions of the technology injected the bubbles into water, where they would then rise to the surface, losing power and effectiveness.

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Raymond said the new technology carries a powerful “one-two punch” because it creates a microsystem for battling bacteria that is more biologically active.

“In addition to directly oxidizing the chemicals, they promote the growth of these bacteria that eat the chemicals.”

Raymond said her studies show an effectiveness rate in the 90th percentile for the ozone nanobubbler, recognizing it as both clean and green.

Raymond was not involved in the Reflecting Pool project and said her studies have not been funded by Greenwater Services.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has done independent research on the technology. In research published in 2020, the federal agency said the technology effectively remediates harmful algal blooms.

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Greenwater Services has never used its technology on a pool, only for projects in waterways, such as the Tijuana River, Ohio’s Lake Newport and Florida’s Port Mayaca.

Raymond said, ideally, the nanobubbler technology could work best by getting ahead of any algae, when installed during cooler months, not during the summer when the conditions for algae — heat and sunlight — are prime.

“If you had all the time in the world, you should launch this fall or winter,” she said.

But the company was under a tight deadline to make the pool clear by July.

Greenwater Services attempted to portray the timeline, and the warm, muggy DC weather they were up against as a positive.

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“If we had put this in here and there’s no algae, we wouldn’t have learned anything,” Antinone said. “The whole goal here is to make the process better, so every time we do something, we should learn a little bit.”

Like Virginia-based Atlantic Industrial Coatings, the company enlisted to resurface the pool bottom with a blue material, Greenwater Services was allowed to bypass a competitive-bidding process that is typically done for government contracts. Greenwater was awarded a no-bid contract in April.

The company’s co-owner, J.J. Cafaro, is a longtime supporter and donor to Trump and lives near his Mar-a-Lago club in South Florida. Cafaro pleaded guilty in 2001 to conspiracy to bribe Rep. James Traficant Jr., an Ohio Democrat.

“The White House was not involved in the selection process for any contract and did not weigh in on the companies selected. Full stop,” an Interior Department spokesperson said in a statement. “These companies were selected because they had the expertise, workforce and materials needed to complete such a huge project in the timeline required to celebrate our nation’s 250th.”

The White House said in a statement that it “did not play any role in the selection process.”

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Greenwater Services has sought to distance Cafaro from its daily operations.

“He is an Ohio-based businessman who invested in the Ohio-based company after the owners showed him research done on local Ohio bodies of water,” a spokesperson said. “He has no involvement in the day-to-day operations.”

CNN reached out to Cafaro but did not receive an immediate response.

Earlier this month, Cafaro defended his company’s technology to a local Ohio newspaper, the Vindicator, saying that he believes the system is working and that much of the public scrutiny over the Reflecting Pool is from “people who don’t seem to like Trump.”

Cafaro told the newspaper he would “never” talk to the president about his company’s work with the Reflecting Pool.

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“You don’t do things to put friends in awkward positions,” he was quoted as saying.

Employees of Greenwater Solutions have been at the pool on a near daily basis since early June. They anticipate remaining through the July Fourth holiday, at least. The company tests the water daily, Antinone said.

The next step is to give time to see how the permanent machine operates on its own.

CNN spoke to the company on Friday, just one day after it went online without the support of the temporary units.

“I will tell you, the water today continues to look good, and we’ll continue to test it and see how that works,” Antinone said.

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If algae and the green-hued water returns, Antinone said the company has the capability to bring in more units to the pump house to amp up the system. Additionally, he suggested there are many other options for mitigation. Some spot treatments — potentially with temporary machines — could also be used, he said.

“We think right now, we treated it — it looks good,” he said Friday while adding, “but you know, it’s going to be 100 degrees next week.”

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Three firefighters killed on Colorado-Utah border as wildfires intensify

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Three firefighters killed on Colorado-Utah border as wildfires intensify

A helicopter drops water on the Cottonwood Fire in Beaver, Utah, on Saturday, June 27, 2026.

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Three firefighters have died and two others have been injured Saturday while they tackled blazes on the Colorado-Utah border, the U.S. Wildland Fire Service has announced. The agency said the crew members had been part of an interagency response to the Knowles and Gore fires.

“The U.S. Wildland Fire Service stands united with the USDA Forest Service in grief and in our unwavering support for the loved ones left behind,” the service said in a statement on Facebook. “Their bravery, dedication, and sacrifice will never be forgotten.”

In a press release, the Department of the Interior said that the five firefighters were involved in a “burnover incident”, which refers to when officials are unable to find an escape route, so have to shelter as best they can while a fire passes directly over them. The department said the two firefighters who survived were being treated for burn injuries.

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Fires in Utah, Colorado and Arizona have been intensifying, thanks to days of low humidity, high temperatures and strong winds. The conditions have pushed fire behavior to extremes not commonly seen in the region, stretching resources and forcing the governors of both Utah and Colorado to declare emergencies.

Cottonwood fire not yet contained

The biggest blaze is the Cottonwood Fire, burning in rugged terrain in southern Utah’s Beaver County, which has grown to more than 144 square miles and remains entirely uncontained. It is currently the largest wildfire burning anywhere in the United States.

It has already severely damaged the Eagle Point ski resort and destroyed summer cabins. Damage assessments were underway Saturday, though no final estimates of destroyed structures were yet available.

On Saturday, hundreds of residents in the towns of Marysvale, Junction and Circleville were placed on notice to leave as conditions worsened.

Also burning is the Snyder Fire, covering more than 28,000 acres. It began as the Snyder Mesa Fire on Saturday in east Utah’s Grand County, but later combined with the smaller Jones and Knowles Fires in Colorado.

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Alyssa Mason, a spokesperson assigned to the Cottonwood Fire, told NPR that crews this weekend had been dealing with single-digit humidity and wind gusts of around 45 miles per hour, on top of fuel moisture readings between 2 and 8 percent.

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