News
After backing him in 2020, a new poll shows some young voters are Biden's to lose
Supporters listen as President Biden speaks during a Black Voters for Biden campaign event at Girard College, Wednesday, May 29, in Philadelphia. Biden won Black voters under 45 with around 80% in 2020. In a recent University of Chicago poll, that support is more of a question in 2024.
Evan Vucci/AP/AP
hide caption
toggle caption
Evan Vucci/AP/AP
Five months out from the presidential election, the state of the youth vote, in some ways, remains a question mark.
It’s a regularly covered topic as President Biden continues to receive low marks from Gen Z and millennial voters, even as the same age group decidedly voted for him four years ago.
But among younger Black, Latino and Asian American voters, who overwhelmingly sided with Biden in 2020, and at higher rates than young white voters did, support has considerably faltered, according to the University of Chicago’s latest GenForward survey.
The survey, exclusively obtained by NPR, which was conducted from May 10-22, polled the political attitudes of 2,089 Americans under 40, with largely equal samples of white, Black, Latino and Asian American and Pacific Islander (AAPI) individuals.
It found that just one-third of all young Americans said they would back Biden if the election was held at the time the survey was conducted. The poll also reflects a virtual tie in the race. Biden leads former President Donald Trump by just two points, and 34% of respondents are currently backing a third-party candidate or said they would support “someone else.”
Plus, despite speculation over how U.S. support for Israel may negatively affect Biden’s youth coalition, the poll found that the war in Gaza is not the top voting issue for most young Americans. Instead, economic concerns, particularly over inflation, remain front and center.
That said, the economy is one of several policy areas, along with immigration and the war in Gaza, where respondents were less likely to pick Biden as the best candidate to handle the issue, illustrating a potentially deeper problem for his campaign with younger Americans.
Biden’s 2020 coalition is missing in 2024
Broken down by race and ethnicity, Biden has particularly lost ground with Black and Latino young people.
In 2020, 89% of Black voters aged 18-29 voted for Biden, as well as 78% of those aged 30-44. In the latest GenForward survey, just 33% said they would support him if the election were held today and 23% chose Trump.
Trump is beating Biden among young Latino voters by a four-point margin. It’s a significant drop in support for Biden compared to four years ago, when he won 69% of Latino voters under 30, and 62% of those 30-44.
When looking at a sample of only registered voters, the numbers improve for Biden and push him back ahead of Trump with Latinos, but the margins remain slim. Biden’s support with Black voters only ticks up two points to 35%.
“Young people are saying to Joe Biden, ‘win me, win my vote,’” said Cathy Cohen, a professor at the University of Chicago who founded and leads the GenForward poll. “’Don’t assume I’m going to vote for you now.’”
That statement rings true particularly for individuals still searching for a different candidate, even as the presidential primary season is virtually finished. Among both Black and Latino Americans, about a quarter said they would vote for someone else.

There are several paths for the “someone else” voter and Cohen argued opinions could likely change as the election nears closer.
“This is how young people are kind of showing up right now as we begin to enter the summer,” she added. “Come November, when there is something at stake… those numbers could look a little different.”
But in GenForward’s June survey four years ago – which did not include third-party candidates – Biden did have considerably more support. He received backing from a majority of Black, Latino and Asian Americans and an average of just 15% said they would vote for someone else.
The latest poll’s inclusion of third-party candidates, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West may also indicate how additional names on the ballot could splinter the youth vote in the fall. A similar result was reflected in the latest Harvard Youth Poll, Biden defeats Trump in a head-to-head matchup, but when third-party candidates are included, the margin decreases.
Economic issues are driving voters, not the Israel-Hamas war
Inflation ranks first across all groups when asked what issue is most important when voting this fall. Concerns around economic growth come second for Black, Latino and AAPI young people, while “threats to American Democracy” does for whites.
To Cohen, a lot of Biden’s problems revolve around the current state of the economy, and though inflation is slowing, she argues these shifts haven’t fully resonated.
“These young people are dealing with increasing rents, increasing food prices, increasing gas costs, and their incomes are less flexible, I would argue, than older folks,” she explained.
Gen Z and millennials are not alone in prioritizing economic issues. It consistently ranks number one across generations and racial groups. In this latest poll, issues often linked to younger voters, like abortion rights, curbing gun violence, addressing climate change and ending the war in Gaza, appear lower on the list of important issues.
When asked to choose which presidential candidate would do the best on issues relating to immigration and inflation, Trump has the most support overall. But, in the question, which gave respondents the options of Trump, Biden, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Cornel West and “none of them,” Trump is closely followed by “none of them.”
One of Biden’s areas of relative strength, abortion access, has been a cornerstone of his campaign. Biden leads by just three points followed by the option, “none of them.”
In the 2022 midterms, safeguarding abortion access was the top motivator for voters under 30, and they turned out overwhelmingly for Democratic candidates.
It remains an important electoral issue in the GenForward poll: a third of overall respondents said they would only vote for a candidate who shares their views on abortion, and nearly half agree that individuals should, “always be able to obtain an abortion as a matter of personal choice”
On the Israel-Hamas war, just 4% of young Americans overall said it’s the most important voting issue for them. A knowledge gap on the topic also exists. Respondents were most likely to choose “don’t know” in response to questions regarding support and sympathy for Israel and the Palestinian people, as well as who to blame for the conflict when given the options of Hamas, the Israeli government, the U.S. government, the Iranian government and all of the above.
Among AAPI young people, the issue holds more weight, 10% say it’s the most important issue when voting in the election and six in 10 want a permanent ceasefire.
And young people overall support an end to the war, with 53% backing a permanent ceasefire.
That all said, Biden holds low approval ratings over his handling of the conflict, with just 12% support, compared to 49% disapproval and 39% choosing neither option.
It all underscores the complex choice many undecided young Americans have this fall, Cohen argued, especially for voters of color, who may typically align themselves with Democratic values.
The likely choice: get back on board with Biden or effectively stay home.
“In a swing state, if the Biden campaign is dependent on those young people and they don’t vote, in some ways it is a vote for Trump,” Cohen said.
“I think we don’t take seriously enough,” she continued, “what does it mean if enough young Black people or enough young folks of color decide just not to vote?”
News
Trump Says Israel and Lebanon Agree to Extend Cease-Fire by Three Weeks
President Trump announced a three-week extension of a cease-fire between Israel and Lebanon that had been set to expire in a few days, after hosting a meeting between Israeli and Lebanese diplomats at the White House on Thursday.
Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed militant group that has been attacking Israel from southern Lebanon, did not have representatives at the meeting and did not immediately comment on the announcement. The prime minister of Israel and the president of Lebanon also did not comment.
A successful peace agreement would hinge upon Hezbollah halting attacks, which Lebanon’s government has little power to enforce because it does not control the militia. Lebanon’s military has mostly stayed out of the fighting and is not at war with Israel.
The cease-fire, which was scheduled to end on April 26, would last until May 17 if it takes effect as Mr. Trump described it. Before the cease-fire was brokered last week, nearly 2,300 people were killed in Lebanon and 13 in Israel. Since then, the number of Israeli airstrikes and Hezbollah attacks have been dramatically reduced, though the two sides have continued exchanging fire.
The Lebanese Ambassador to the United States, Nada Hamadeh, credited Mr. Trump for extending the cease-fire, saying that “with your help and support, we can make Lebanon great again.” Mr. Trump replied, “I like that phrase, it’s a good phrase.”
Asked about the potential of a lasting peace agreement between Israel and Lebanon, Mr. Trump said that “I think there’s a great chance. They are friends about the same things and they are enemies on the same things.”
But Lebanon and Israel have periodically been at war since Israel’s founding in 1948. Israel has invaded Lebanon for the fifth time since 1978, incursions that have destabilized the country and the delicate balance of power between Muslim, Christian and Druze communities.
In the hours before the president’s announcement on social media, Israel and Hezbollah were trading attacks in southern Lebanon, testing the existing cease-fire.
Mr. Trump said the meeting at the White House had been attended by high-ranking U.S. officials, including Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and the U.S. ambassadors to Israel and Lebanon.
Earlier on Thursday, an Israeli strike near the southern Lebanese city of Nabatieh killed three people, according to Lebanon’s health ministry. Hezbollah claimed three separate attacks on Israeli troops who are occupying southern Lebanon, though none were wounded or killed.
Hezbollah set off the latest round of fighting last month by attacking Israel soon after the start of the U.S.-Israeli bombing campaign in Iran. Israel responded to Hezbollah’s attacks by launching airstrikes across Lebanon and widening a ground invasion of the country’s south.
News
U.S. soldier charged with suspected Polymarket insider trading over Maduro raid
Smoke rises from Port of La Guaira in Venezuela on Jan. 3, 2026 after U.S. forces seized the country’s president, Nicolas Maduro and his wife.
Jesus Vargas/Getty Images
hide caption
toggle caption
Jesus Vargas/Getty Images
Federal prosecutors on Thursday unsealed an indictment against a U.S. Army soldier, accusing him of using his insider knowledge of the clandestine military operation to capture Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro in January to reap more than $400,000 in profits on the popular prediction market site Polymarket.
The Justice Department says Gannon Ken Van Dyke, 38, who was stationed at Fort Bragg, in North Carolina, was part of the team that planned and carried out the predawn raid in Caracas earlier this year that resulted in the apprehension of Maduro.
The Department of Justice and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission filed the actions against Van Dyke, the first time U.S. officials have leveled criminal charges against someone over prediction market wagers.
According to the indictment, Van Dyke now faces counts of wire fraud, commodities fraud, misusing non-public government information and other charges.
Trading under numerous usernames including “Burdensome-Mix,” Van Dyke allegedly traded about $32,000 on the arrest of Maduro, resulting in profits exceeding $400,000.
“Prediction markets are not a haven for using misappropriated confidential or classified information for personal gain,” said U.S. Attorney Jay Clayton for the Southern District of New York. “Those entrusted to safeguard our nation’s secrets have a duty to protect them and our armed service members, and not to use that information for personal financial gain.”
Van Dyke’s defense lawyer is not yet publicly known. Polymarket did not return a request for comment.
The charges against Van Dyke come at a sensitive time for the prediction market industry, which has been growing exponentially, despite calls in Washington and among state leaders for the sites to be reined in.
Van Dyke is the first to be charged in the U.S. for suspected Polymarket insider trading, but Israeli authorities in February arrested several people and charged two on suspicion of using classified information to place bets about military operations in Iran on Polymarket.
News
Senate Adopts GOP Budget, Laying the Groundwork to Fund ICE and Reopen DHS
The Senate early Thursday morning adopted a Republican budget blueprint that would pave the way for a $70 billion increase for immigration enforcement and the eventual reopening of the Department of Homeland Security.
Republicans pushed through the plan on a nearly party-line vote of 50 to 48. It came after an overnight marathon of rapid-fire votes, known as a vote-a-rama, in which the G.O.P. beat back a series of Democratic proposals aimed at addressing the high cost of health care, housing, food and energy. The debate put the two parties’ dueling messages on vivid display six months before the midterm elections.
Republicans, who are using the budget plan to lay the groundwork to eventually push through a filibuster-proof bill providing a multiyear funding stream for President Trump’s immigration crackdown, used the all-night session to highlight their hard-line stance on border security, seeking to portray Democrats as unwilling to safeguard the country.
Democrats tried and failed to add a series of changes aimed at addressing cost-of-living issues, seizing the opportunity to hammer Republicans as out of touch with and unwilling to act on the concerns of everyday Americans.
Here’s what to know about the budget plan and the nocturnal ritual senators engaged in before adopting it.
Republicans are seeking a way around a filibuster on D.H.S. funding.
The budget blueprint is a crucial piece of Republicans’ plan to fund the Department of Homeland Security and end a shutdown that has lasted for more than two months. After Democrats refused to fund immigration enforcement without new restrictions on agents’ tactics and conduct, the G.O.P. struck a deal with them to pass a spending bill that would fund everything but ICE and the Border Patrol. Republicans said they would fund those agencies through a special budget bill that Democrats could not block.
“We can fix this with Republican votes, and we will,” said Senator Lindsey Graham, Republican of South Carolina and the Budget Committee chairman. “Every Democrat has opposed money for the Border Patrol and ICE at a time of great peril.”
In resorting to a new budget blueprint, Republicans laid the groundwork to deny Democrats a chance to stop the immigration enforcement funding. But they also submitted themselves to a vote-a-rama, in which any senator can propose unlimited changes to such a measure before it is adopted.
The budget measure now goes to the House, which must adopt it before lawmakers in both chambers can draft the legislation funding immigration enforcement. That bill will provide yet another opportunity for a vote-a-rama even closer to the November election.
Democrats used the moment to hammer Republicans on affordability.
Democrats took to the floor to criticize Republicans for supercharging funding for federal immigration enforcement rather than moving legislation that would address Americans’ concerns over affordability.
“This is what Republicans are fighting for,” said Senator Chuck Schumer, Democrat of New York and the Democratic leader. “To maintain two unchecked rogue agencies that are dreaded in all corners of this country instead of reducing your health care costs, your housing costs, your grocery costs, your gas costs.”
Democrats offered a host of amendments along those lines, all of which were defeated by Republicans — and that was the point. The proposals were meant to put the G.O.P. in a tough political spot, showcasing their opposition to helping Americans afford high living costs. Fewer than a handful of G.O.P. senators crossed party lines to support them.
Republicans blocked Democrats’ proposals to address high living costs.
The G.O.P. thwarted an effort by Mr. Schumer to require that the budget measure lower out-of-pocket health care costs for Americans. Two Republicans who are up for re-election this year, Senators Susan Collins of Maine and Dan Sullivan of Alaska, voted with Democrats, but the proposal was still defeated.
Republicans also squelched a move by Senator Ben Ray Lujan, Democrat of New Mexico, to create a fund that would lower grocery costs and reverse cuts to food aid programs that Republicans enacted last year. Ms. Collins and Mr. Sullivan again joined Democrats.
Also defeated by the G.O.P.: a proposal by Senator John Hickenlooper, Democrat of Colorado, to address rising consumer prices brought on by Mr. Trump’s tariffs and the war in Iran; one by Senator Edward J. Markey, Democrat of Massachusetts, to require the budget measure to address rising electricity prices, and another by Mr. Markey to create a fund to bring down housing costs.
Senator Jon Ossoff, a Democrat who is up for re-election in Georgia, also sought to add language requiring the budget plan to address health insurance companies denying or delaying access to care, but that, too was blocked by Republicans.
Republicans sought to amplify their hard-line messages on immigration, voter I.D. and transgender care.
While Republicans had fewer proposals for changes to their own budget plan, they also sought to offer measures that would underscore their aggressive stance on immigration enforcement and dare Democrats to vote against them.
Mr. Graham offered an amendment to allocate funds toward a deficit-neutral reserve fund relating to the apprehension and deportation of adult immigrants convicted of rape, murder, or sexual abuse of a minor after illegally entering the United States. It passed unanimously.
Senator Josh Hawley, Republican of Missouri, sought to bar Medicaid payments to Planned Parenthood, which provides abortion and other services, and criticized the organization for providing transgender care to minors. Senator John Kennedy, Republican of Louisiana, also attempted to tack on the G.O.P. voter identification bill, known as the SAVE America Act. Both proposals were blocked when Democrats, joined by a few Republicans, voted to strike them as unrelated to the budget plan.
The Republicans who crossed party lines to oppose their own party’s proposals for new voting requirements were Ms. Collins along with Senators Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska and Thom Tillis of North Carolina.
Ms. Collins and Ms. Murkowski also opposed the effort to block payments to Planned Parenthood.
-
New York8 minutes agoShould a Straight Person Represent Stonewall’s City Council District?
-
Detroit, MI38 minutes agoBlake Miller has high floor, big upside, says Lions GM Brad Holmes
-
San Francisco, CA50 minutes agoHighway 1 closure in San Francisco expected to snarl Sunset traffic all weekend
-
Dallas, TX56 minutes agoHow UCF EDGE Malachi Lawrence Fits With The Dallas Cowboys
-
Miami, FL1 hour ago
Dolphins Select Two Players in The First Round of The 2026 NFL Draft
-
Boston, MA1 hour agoIn-Store Only
-
Denver, CO1 hour agoWolves Back Up the Big Talk With Blowout Win Over Denver in Game 3
-
Seattle, WA1 hour ago‘Rare’ Tiny-Home Compound Featuring 3 Adorable Abodes Hits the Market in Seattle for Just $900K