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A heat dome can bring dangerously high temperatures. What is it?
People chat while having drinks under a mister at a restaurant in Phoenix on Wednesday. According to the National Weather Service, Phoenix will experience record temperatures soaring over 100 degrees due to a heat dome stemming from high pressure in the atmosphere.
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Much of the Western U.S. is experiencing extreme heat this week — with temperatures easily topping 100. Blame a condition known as a heat dome. But what is it?
If you want to visualize how a heat dome can trap a region in intensely hot weather, picture yourself making a grilled cheese sandwich.
“It almost acts like a lid on a pot,” the National Weather Service’s Alex Lamers tells NPR. He’s the operations branch chief at the Weather Prediction Center.
“If you’ve made grilled cheese in a pan and you put a lid on there, it melts the cheese faster because the lid helps trap the heat and makes it a little bit warmer,” Lamers says. “It’s a similar concept here: You get a big high-pressure system in the upper parts of the atmosphere and it allows that heat to build underneath over multiple days.”
The heat dome that’s currently putting a hot lid on the Western U.S. will bring high temperatures that are 20 to 30 degrees hotter than normal for early June, the National Weather Service said. The forecast has both Phoenix and Las Vegas hitting 112 on Thursday, and the heat will stick around at night, falling only to the low 80s.
Here’s a guide to heat domes — and how you can stay safe:
How many people are affected by heat right now?
Some 20 million Americans, from California to Texas, were living under a federal excessive heat advisory as of Wednesday, with forecasters issuing alarms about the heat dome in the Western U.S.
Another 11 million people were under heat advisories.
“We are bracing already here in Tucson,” says Joellen Russell, a climate scientist and distinguished professor at the University of Arizona, where she also heads the Department of Geosciences.
“We’re going to be 108 or 109 starting [Thursday], and that will persist for three days, which is consistent with our definition of a heat wave, although we’ve been over 100 now for more than a week.”
What is a heat dome?
They’re generally caused by large high-pressure systems in the atmosphere. And they’re massive, linked to a ridge of high pressure. If the term “ridge” makes you think of a mountain feature, you need to go bigger: the term refers to curves in the jet stream.
“It would typically be several states,” Lamers said of the scale. “A third to half of the country.”
Russell says the jet stream behavior is “producing these stagnant high-pressure systems that are associated with extreme heat and drought,”
The jet stream normally spreads big storms — but right now, it’s too far north to bring moisture and potential relief to the Southwest.
“If it was blowing through Arizona, we’d be maybe even rainy,” Russell says. “But of course, it’s locked up there in northern Montana and instead where we’re experiencing warmer and warmer and warmer conditions.”
And when a heat dome sits over a large land area, Lamers says, a sort of feedback loop can take hold. High pressure typically means dry weather, which can help drive the heat even higher.
How much hotter does it get?
It depends on where you are, but if you’re enduring a heat dome, you’ll likely notice highs that are hotter than normal for that time of year. People in higher elevations, like among mountains, might avoid the worst effects.
“But it’s definitely easier to achieve those really hot temperatures in an absolute sense at lower elevations, in valleys” and urban areas, Lamers says.
How long do heat domes usually last?
They can last anywhere from a few days to a few weeks, Lamers says. “It really just depends on the overall weather pattern.”
In Tucson, a long stretch of extremely high temperatures is in the forecast.
“We’re expecting it to be up to 108 or 109 over the next few days,” Russell says. “It’ll come back down to be in the hundreds and then it’ll go back up to very, very hot. So there won’t be a real break over the next, say, 10 days.”
But it’s hard to predict how long a heat dome will persist, because they’re linked to the behavior of the jet stream.
“If the jet would swing south and break it up, that would be amazing — especially if it rained,” Russell says. But right now, she adds, the stream is likely to leave everyone from Idaho on south in very high heat.
Kids play in a splash pad at Riverview Park on Wednesday in Mesa, Ariz. Experts warn to make sure any outdoor play time includes plenty of water and shade — and breaks from the heat — during an extended heat wave.
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Justin Sullivan/Getty Images
Does climate change cause heat domes?
The consensus from U.S. and international reports on climate change is that heat extremes are becoming more common, Lamers notes.
“You can get a heat dome or a configuration of the weather pattern that is similar to past cases,” he says. “But it’s going to be easier to achieve more extreme temperatures as a consequence of global warming.”
“We have more frequent heat waves now here in the U.S. and worldwide,” Russell says. “They are more frequent and they last longer.”
How can people stay safe in a heat dome?
“Heat is actually the deadliest weather-related hazard in the United States,” Lamers says, putting it above attention-grabbing events like tornadoes and hurricanes.
“What makes them so deadly,” Russell says, “is that people don’t understand that it’s not the first day of the heat wave that kills you. It’s the third or the fourth. You know, somebody decides at lunchtime to put their laundry out and it can be less than 15 or 20 minutes and you can have heatstroke.”
Russell, who is also a member of the nonpartisan group Science Moms, says she takes extra precautions with her kids, like getting a big, wide hat for her son, who’s a lifeguard. And because of the heat, the Tucson resident says, “we’re up at 5 to walk the dog so they don’t burn their little feet on the pavement.”
Russell says pools in her area will stay open longer, to give children a safe option to play outside. She’s also a big fan of sail shades, which protect kids at splash pads and help save water.
“We’ll also have cooling stations,” she says, and libraries will be open longer hours.
To stay safe during the day, people should take extreme heat seriously, staying hydrated and finding ways to break their exposure.
“And look out for other people in your life — neighbors, family, friends,” Lamers says. “Those community connections are really important to make sure people stay safe.”
Children, the elderly, and people with chronic conditions can be especially vulnerable. Lamers says anyone who isn’t getting a chance to cool off at night should pay special attention.
“We find this a lot, that actually the minimum temperatures have a pretty high correlation to fatality rates in these types of events,” Lamers says. “Basically, if Mother Nature isn’t allowing you to cool yourself down naturally at night with just the overnight temperatures, then it becomes really important that you find a way yourself to break that exposure to the heat.”
Track your heat risk in the U.S.
A new tool lets you see a map of dangerous heat across the contiguous country: The HeatRisk index comes from a collaboration by NOAA and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
The color-coded map has a seven-day forecast, aiming to help people understand the health risks they could face.
Level 4, or magenta, is the most extreme category, signifying “rare and/or long-duration extreme heat with little to no overnight relief” that can affect anyone who doesn’t get enough hydration or cooling to mitigate the high temperatures.
But even if your area is orange, or at Level 2, you should still take care. In those conditions, most people who are sensitive to heat will be affected — especially if they don’t have ways to cool off, and stay hydrated.
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Three firefighters killed on Colorado-Utah border as wildfires intensify
A helicopter drops water on the Cottonwood Fire in Beaver, Utah, on Saturday, June 27, 2026.
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Ty ONeil/AP
Three firefighters have died and two others have been injured Saturday while they tackled blazes on the Colorado-Utah border, the U.S. Wildland Fire Service has announced. The agency said the crew members had been part of an interagency response to the Knowles and Gore fires.
“The U.S. Wildland Fire Service stands united with the USDA Forest Service in grief and in our unwavering support for the loved ones left behind,” the service said in a statement on Facebook. “Their bravery, dedication, and sacrifice will never be forgotten.”
In a press release, the Department of the Interior said that the five firefighters were involved in a “burnover incident”, which refers to when officials are unable to find an escape route, so have to shelter as best they can while a fire passes directly over them. The department said the two firefighters who survived were being treated for burn injuries.
Fires in Utah, Colorado and Arizona have been intensifying, thanks to days of low humidity, high temperatures and strong winds. The conditions have pushed fire behavior to extremes not commonly seen in the region, stretching resources and forcing the governors of both Utah and Colorado to declare emergencies.
Cottonwood fire not yet contained
The biggest blaze is the Cottonwood Fire, burning in rugged terrain in southern Utah’s Beaver County, which has grown to more than 144 square miles and remains entirely uncontained. It is currently the largest wildfire burning anywhere in the United States.
It has already severely damaged the Eagle Point ski resort and destroyed summer cabins. Damage assessments were underway Saturday, though no final estimates of destroyed structures were yet available.
On Saturday, hundreds of residents in the towns of Marysvale, Junction and Circleville were placed on notice to leave as conditions worsened.
Also burning is the Snyder Fire, covering more than 28,000 acres. It began as the Snyder Mesa Fire on Saturday in east Utah’s Grand County, but later combined with the smaller Jones and Knowles Fires in Colorado.
Alyssa Mason, a spokesperson assigned to the Cottonwood Fire, told NPR that crews this weekend had been dealing with single-digit humidity and wind gusts of around 45 miles per hour, on top of fuel moisture readings between 2 and 8 percent.
Those conditions grounded helicopters and other firefighting aircraft on Friday afternoon and again briefly on Saturday. The terrain has compounded an already difficult task, Morgan said, with the steep cliffs and canyon walls making it hard to move heavy equipment and engines into position and thus slowing the response.
Utah Gov. Spencer Cox, in a social media post Saturday, described the situation on the ground as grimmer than anything he had seen before, as he credited crews with pulling off some improbable rescues in the face of such difficult conditions. “Please pray for them and for the rains we desperately need,” he wrote.
The National Weather Service in Salt Lake City issued what it described as a “particularly dangerous situation” red flag warning on Friday, the first time it has used that designation in its history. It cited the volatile mix of wind, heat and low humidity, with critical fire-accelerating conditions expected to persist into Sunday.
A region primed to burn
The extreme fire behavior is rooted in conditions that have been building for months, experts have said. Utah recorded its lowest snowpack and warmest winter on record this past season. The snowpack peaked three weeks earlier than normal, leaving soils and vegetation to dry out through spring. Much of the wider region — Nevada, Colorado and beyond — has been gripped by widespread drought after an unusually dry winter.
Utah’s state forester, Jamie Barnes, told reporters that fires across the state this season had been moving in ways that had stretched Utah’s firefighting capacity to its limits, with new fires beginning closer to populated areas than in previous years.
Utah’s Governor Cox declared a state of emergency earlier this week, restricting fireworks displays ahead of the Fourth of July holiday. Colorado Gov. Jared Polis issued his own emergency declaration Saturday, authorizing the use of the National Guard to help fight the fires in his state.
The National Interagency Fire Center reported that nearly 3 million acres have burned across the country since the start of the year, faster than the rolling 10-year average. And from Alaska to Florida, crews worked Saturday to contain dozens of blazes, including around three dozen classified as large and uncontained.
Forecasters with the National Weather Service issued red flag warnings across a broad swath of the West, from California through Arizona to New Mexico, where additional fires were also burning.
NPR’s Nate Rott contributed to this report.
News
Trump-backed Rep. Julia Letlow wins Louisiana Senate primary runoff
Rep. Julia Letlow won the Republican primary runoff for Senate in Louisiana, NBC News projects, defeating state Treasurer John Fleming in another victory for President Donald Trump’s slate of preferred candidates.
Trump endorsed Letlow early in the race, which went to a runoff after none of the GOP candidates won a majority of the initial primary vote on May 16. Trump waded into the state in an effort to oust GOP Sen. Bill Cassidy, who voted to convict Trump on impeachment charges following the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol riot.
See live runoff results here
Letlow was the top vote-getter in the first-round primary, winning 45%, followed by Fleming at 28%. Cassidy won just 25% and did not qualify for the runoff.
Letlow will be in a strong position to win in November in the solidly Republican state, which Trump carried by 22 points in 2024. Democrat Jamie Davis, a farmer, easily won the Democratic Senate nomination Saturday night.
Letlow has pledged to be a strong supporter of the president’s policies.
“I promise you this: When I get to the United States Senate, I will never back down from fighting for your America First agenda,” Letlow told the president during a telerally with Trump on Thursday night.
Letlow framed the race as the choice between “a real conservative fighter in the Senate, or whether we are going to send another career politician who does not want to save our country.” She touted her support for eliminating the Senate filibuster to help pass the Save America Act, a Trump-backed measure to overhaul U.S. election laws.
Fleming also tried to make the case that he was the staunchest Trump ally in the race, taking aim at Letlow’s past support for diversity, equity and inclusion policies and foreign aid. Letlow told NBC News earlier this year that she reversed her position on DEI when she “saw it for what it was” and has since been “fighting against it.”
But Trump’s backing helped boost Letlow, who also had help on the airwaves from allied super PAC.
She also touted endorsements from other top Louisiana Republicans, led by Gov. Jeff Landry. House Majority Leader Steve Scalise and Rep. Clay Higgins also backed Letlow.
Letlow is expected to join the Senate after serving nearly three terms in the House, where she also served on the powerful Appropriations Committee. She first came to Congress in 2021 after winning a special election following the death of her late husband. Luke Letlow, a former congressional aide who won a House election in 2020, died of Covid before he was sworn into office.
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As Supreme Court expands Trump’s immigration power, experts warn of steeper U.S. population decline
President Trump holds up a bill funding immigration enforcement after signing it in the Oval Office of the White House, Wednesday, June 10, 2026, in Washington.
Julia Demaree Nikhinson/AP
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Julia Demaree Nikhinson/AP
Even before the Supreme Court ruled Thursday that President Trump has broad power to deport hundreds of thousands of migrants living legally in the U.S. under temporary protected status, David Bier feared the U.S. was slipping toward a demographic cliff.
“We’re destined to be there, in short order, there’s no question,” Bier said. “We’re already seeing a situation where most counties in the United States had more deaths than births.”
An expert on population and immigration at the libertarian Cato Institute, Bier believes the U.S. is beginning to look more like China, Italy and South Korea — nations that face rapid aging and population decline are seen as a crisis.

U.S. birthrates have been declining for decades. There are far too few children born each year to maintain a stable population.
Until last year, high rates of foreign immigration largely offset that trend. But for the first time since the 1930s, during the Great Depression, the U.S. now faces record low birthrates and low numbers of migrants at the same time.
“Our higher birthrates of a century ago are not coming back. There’s no way to have a sustainable fiscal and economic situation that doesn’t involve immigration,” Bier said.
Trump’s legal fight to end temporary protected status for hundreds of thousands of Haitians, Syrians and others living in the U.S. legally is only one part of a wider administration effort to squeeze immigration.
The Supreme Court also ruled this week that the administration has authority to block most asylum seekers from entering the country. Federal agents have also conducted raids in cities across the U.S., to accelerate deportations.
Last month, Trump issued an executive order that could make it harder for many migrants living in the U.S. without full legal status to use banking and financial services.
Many immigration opponents see these changes as progress. In a statement following this week’s Supreme Court decisions. A spokesman for the Federation for Immigration Reform said Trump should have full authority to direct who enters the U.S.
“Our immigration laws are written to be pro-enforcement, not anti-enforcement,” said FAIR’s Christopher Hajec.
But according to Cato’s Bier, Trump’s policies are already reshaping the demographics of communities, meaning there are fewer workers, consumers, taxpayers, and children in schools.
“If you’re not allowing immigration, you’re going to have [an aging and] a declining population and that creates all kinds of problems,” Bier said.
Economists say that without migrants, the number of young workers paying into Social Security will fall more rapidly; schools in many areas will close; and the number of young families having children will decline.
Census data already shows big changes to U.S. population
The immigration decline under Trump is dramatic. In 2024, roughly 2.7 million foreign migrants entered the U.S., according to the Census Bureau. This year, census experts predict that number could drop as low as 300,000. Some demographers believe the U.S. may be reaching a point where more migrants are leaving than entering.

Impacts of this massive shift on America’s wider population are already emerging. Studies by the Census Bureau, the Congressional Budget Office, and the Federal Reserve all point to a more rapidly aging national population under Trump.
Population growth in the U.S. fell by half in 2025 from the previous year, with five states losing population. Census data shows the total number of young Americans, those under age 25, is already falling nationwide.
William Frey, a demographer at the liberal-leaning Brookings Institution, described last week’s Supreme Court rulings as “alarming.” He believes without robust foreign immigration, more states will quickly see their populations stagnate or decline.
“Not just in big immigration states, but in places that have relatively small numbers of immigrants, you know, Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska — those states require immigrants to get any population growth,” Frey said.
Even before Trump’s policies curbed immigration, the U.S. population was expected to decline later this century. Experts say low immigration rates will cause that downward trend to happen much sooner.
According to Frey, the U.S. has time to reverse course. But he believes the Trump administration is committed to lowering both legal and illegal immigration over the long term, a policy he described as dangerous.
“This is as clear as the nose on your face,” he said. “You’ve got to have this growth in the younger population if you’re going to survive. Immigration is a key part of that going forward.”
“America’s doors are closed”
Stephen Miller, White House deputy chief of staff for policy, speaks with reports at the White House, Thursday, June 25, 2026, in Washington.
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Jacquelyn Martin/AP
The Trump administration sees this very differently, describing foreign migrants not as people who sustain state populations and economies, but as a social burden and a threat.
“America’s doors are closed fully to asylum seekers,” Stephen Miller, one of Trump’s top White House policy advisors, said on Thursday.
Speaking with reporters, Miller described the Supreme Court rulings as a victory and said ending birthright citizenship for the children of migrants born in the U.S. is the next step.
“This country doesn’t have a future if we don’t end birthright citizenship,” Miller said. Justices are expected to rule on birthright citizenship as early as next week.
This kind of opposition to both legal and illegal immigration is now widespread among conservatives, said Cato’s David Bier, who worked as a Republican congressional staffer on immigration policy.
He told NPR that when he talks to conservatives about the economic and demographic risks of closing the country’s doors to migrants, many answer with a cultural argument. “[They] would rather have a declining population of ‘true Americans’ than have an economy kept afloat by people who don’t share [their] values,” Bier said.
But if extremely low or zero-level immigration does become the new normal for the U.S., experts say it would swiftly remake the fabric of the country. The Census Bureau estimates that without robust migration in the coming years, total population loss by the end of this century could exceed 107 million people.
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