Democrats see a rare opportunity in Nebraska’s U.S. Senate race, where independent candidate Dan Osborn is mounting an unexpectedly competitive challenge against Republican incumbent Deb Fischer.

Nebraska has backed Republicans in every presidential election since 1964. The state remains solidly conservative, due to large swaths of rural counties that regularly give GOP candidates 80 or 90 percent of their votes. Democrats rarely bother investing money or resources in Nebraska, which backed former President Donald Trump by nearly 20 points against President Joe Biden in 2020.

But Osborn, a moderate independent whose platform blends positions from both parties, may be making the race closer than initially expected. If Osborn prevails, he could serve as a crucial tiebreaking vote in the Senate, which is expected to be narrowly divided regardless of who wins the most competitive races in November.

A flurry of recent polls showed good news for Osborn. A Bullfinch Group survey, conducted among 400 likely voters from September 27 to October 1, showed him with a 5-point lead over Fischer (47 percent to 42 percent).

An Osborn-sponsored SurveyUSA poll showed him up one point (45 percent to 44 percent). It polled 558 likely voters from September 20 to September 23. A Global Strategy Group poll, conduced among 600 likely voters from August 26 to August 29, showed Fischer up one point (43 percent to 42 percent).

Kevin Smith, a professor of political science at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, told Newsweek that while a polling error is always possible, the “weight of evidence” suggests it may actually be a close race “given there are now a number of polls all triangulating on the general inference of a tight contest.”

“Both of the campaigns and increasingly outside funders are certainly treating this as a competitive race,” he said.

Osborn is running a “high visibility campaign” and has an “appealing back story,” Smith said, noting that his anti-establishment sentiment may be resonating with Nebraska voters “who are feeling fed up with both of the major parties.”

But he needs to not only win over Democrats and independents, but also at least some Republicans in order to win statewide in Nebraska. That remains a challenge, Smith said.

“There may well be a real thirst for a viable option outside of the traditional Republican/Democrat choice, and Osborn could well be tapping into that,” he said.

Fischer wasn’t expected to have a closer race. She rarely breaks from the GOP party line and has not had any scandals that would alienate voters in the state. She also received the endorsement of Trump, who remains popular with Nebraska Republicans.

“To the best of my knowledge there’s nothing in Deb Fischer’s record that should be unduly upsetting to the core conservative Republican voter that is the big constituency in a statewide race in Nebraska,” Smith said.

He added that some polls show Fischer with among the lowest approval rating in the Senate, such as a 2020 Morning Consult survey that placed her in the top 10 least popular senators. Still, he said it is a “stretch though, to think that would lead to a non-trivial chunk of Republican voters giving serious consideration to voting for an independent.”

Osborn, Fischer Fundraising Compared

While polling is tight, Fischer has maintained a fundraising advantage over Osborn.

At the end of June, the Republican incumbent had raised $6.2 million, while Osborn raised $1.6 million, according to the nonprofit OpenSecrets. She had spent $3.8 million, while Osborn had spent just under $1 million.

Fischer still had nearly $3 million in the bank, compared to Osborn’s $650,000

Osborn, a mechanic, military veteran and former leader of his manufacturing union, supports policies from both the Democratic and Republican parties. The issues page on his website emphasizes his support for a “secure border,” as well as gun rights. He also supports legalizing cannabis and reproductive rights.

He has not attached himself to either party, and he has not said who he would caucus with in the Senate, previously suggesting he might vote with whichever party has a majority.

“Nebraskans want a senator who listens to them,” said Dustin Wahl, Osborn’s communications director, in a statement to Newsweek. “He’s going to work for the regular folks of this state, and they can tell he’s the real deal.”

Fischer, however, has sought to highlight some of his more liberal views in an attempt to tie him to Democrats.

Derek Oden, a spokesperson for Fischer, told Newsweek that Osborn is a “liberal Democrat in disguise” who’s “funded by the same billionaire Democrats supporting Kamala Harris.”

If elected, Osborn would join a small but impactful group of independents already in the Senat. Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Angus King of Maine are both independents who caucus with Democrats. Senators Krysten Sinema and Joe Manchin are also independents who have left the Democratic Party, though they are both retiring this cycle.

Osborn Seeks to Avoid Fate of Other Independents

Democrats living in red states backed independent candidates in a handful of previous Senate races in the past few years, hoping that an independent may be able to win support from enough Republicans to pull off an upset. But these efforts fizzled in states like Alaska and Kansas, leading some to be wary of Osborn’s chances.

In 2014, Democrats hoped independent candidate Greg Orman could defeat Senator Pat Roberts, a Kansas Republican, as several polls at the time showed him in the lead. But Roberts ultimately won by double digits, with more than 53 percent of the vote to Orman’s 42.5 percent.

A similar story played out in Alaska in 2020, when independent Al Gross faced off against Republican Senator Dan Sullivan. Polls leading up to the election showed a tight race, with a handful even showing Gross taking a lead over the incumbent. Sullivan ended up winning handily, with 54 percent of the vote to Gross’ 41 percent.

Four years earlier, some polls also showed independent candidate Evan McMullin in a tight race against GOP Senator Mike Lee in Utah. Lee went on to win with by about 10 points, with 53 percent of the vote to McMullin’s 43 percent.

All three independents overperformed expectations—with Orman and McMullin running in years expected to be difficult for Democrats—but ultimately fell short. Osborn will spend the next month on the campaign trail in a bid to win over enough voters to try to avoid a similar fate.

Smith said it is a possibility that Nebraska’s Senate race could see similar results.

“What the polls may be picking up is an element of general dissatisfaction, at least among some Republicans and independents, with the GOP candidate or the party in general,” he said. “But it’s obviously one thing to express a theoretical preference on a survey and another to cast an actual vote.”

How Republican Is Nebraska?

In 2020, Trump won Nebraska by 19 points, securing 58 percent of the vote in the state to Biden’s 39 percent.

Trump won all but two counties, Douglas County, which includes the liberal outpost of Omaha and Lancaster County, which contains the college town of Lincoln.

That marks a leftward shift from 2016, when Trump won the state by 25 points, with 59 percent of the vote, while Hillary Clinton won 34 percent. Omaha and its suburbs have drifted increasingly Democratic in recent years, but not enough to cancel out the large number of Republican votes in the rural, western part of the state.

The Cook Political Report rates the presidential race in Nebraska as safely Republican. However, it is one of two states, along with Maine, to split its Electoral College votes. Trump is expected to win the two statewide votes, as well as two of its three Congressional districts.

The Senate race is rated as “Likely Republican,” meaning it is “not considered competitive at this point” but has “the potential to become engaged.”

Update 10/3/24 5:40 p.m. ET: This article was updated with additional information.

HASTINGS, Neb. (KSNB) – More than 200 students from 35 high schools across the state of Nebraska gathered at Hastings College on Wednesday to compete in the ninth annual Jackson Dinsdale Art Center Mural Competition.

Students were given a prompt for their mural once they arrived, and had just a few hours to brainstorm and complete their paintings before it was judged by Advanced Art Students from Hastings College.

“The collaboration. I think that’s the best part of this, to see six or seven students have to get together and make one idea, and then everyone works equally to execute it,” said Turner McGehee. “If you look around there at the groups that are out there painting, everybody’s got a hand in the painting. Even though you know that some are probably more skilled than others and it would be really easy for someone to take over, that’s not the way it works, it’s a really great collaboration.”

Payton Veik, a student at Waverly High School has been participating for the past couple of years and said each year she’s able to make new friends.

“It’s different every year I feel like,” Veik said. “There’s always different people and there’s always different energies and then we’re always in a different spot. So like last year we weren’t by the speakers and we were by different schools so we made friends and hung out with different people and it’s really fun and I really enjoy it.”

Veik said she’s also able to build closer relationships with her own teammates.

“I didn’t even know like three of the people on my team I had never talked to before today really and I’m already besties with them so it’s pretty fun. It’s always good to make friendships through this kind of stuff,” said Veik.

The students get to take their murals back home to display and some schools have participated for years, leaving them with a collection to show off.

“Going around the state and visiting some of the high schools around the state, it’s nice to see that’s almost a trophy in itself,” said McGehee. “You see those mounted in the art room or sometimes in other places like the dining hall or something like that.”

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Rutgers Football earned its biggest win of the season on Friday night against Washington.

The Scarlet Knights moved to 4-0 on the year and are beginning to gain some attention nationally, earning votes in the AP Top 25 poll.

Nebraska has been a team with high expectations this season due to the quarterback position. Five-star Dylan Raiola joined Matt Rhule in Lincoln and Nebraska Football is on its way back.

Rutgers will hit the road as an underdog looking to earn another signature victory.

Rutgers at Nebraska Line, Spread, & Total

The odds below are according to Action Network and updated as of Wednesday, Oct. 2 at 12:00 PM ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Rutgers +207 | Nebraska -255
• Against the Spread (ATS): Rutgers +7 (-110) | Nebraska -7 (-110)
• Over/Under (O/U): Over 41.5 (-110) | Under 41.5 (-110)

Rutgers and Nebraska have met five times since the Scarlet Knights entered the Big Ten in 2014. The Huskers are 5-0 straight up in those matchups but Rutgers has covered three times. This includes twice as a double-digit favorite.

On Saturday, the number will not be double digits but the Huskers will be laying a touchdown. That will be the sixth consecutive game that Nebraska is favored by at least seven. So far, it is 4-1 ATS. The one loss came against Illinois when a 9.5-favorite Nebraska team lost outright on a Friday night.

Rutgers has also been a cover machine lately. The Scarlet Knights have covered the last three games and are 4-0 ATS, depending on where you got the season-opening line against Howard. It was offered at 39.5 on many sites but creeped lower making that last-second touchdown valuable for some. Most recently, Rutgers has covered during the two biggest games thus far. First, as a small dog against Virginia Tech and as a one-point favorite against the Huskies.

The Scarlet Knights have split over/unders this season. It would lean 3-1 in favor of overs if the extra point was kicked at the end of the game against Howard. The number was 51.5 and it landed 44-7. As for Nebraska, games have gone under four out of five times.

In a total of nine games between both teams, the number has been set over 50 just three times. This means the oddsmakers believe in the defenses while the offenses have not been explosive. Once again, the number is under 50 here and that might be the play.

It is always intriguing to take a team that runs the ball well and plays defense getting a touchdown. On the road, it makes it a difficult spot. The Scarlet Knights responded in Virginia Tech but this will be the biggest test of the season to date.

If there is a play here, it might be to stay away from the line, unless you find it under a score, and ride the under.