WHO: Nebraska Cornhuskers (22-10 overall, 11-7 Big Ten)
WHEN: 11:00 AM CT (Sunday, March 10)
WHERE: Target Center (Minneapolis, Minnesota)
TV: CBS
RADIO: Hawkeye Radio Network
ONLINE: https://www.cbs.com/
MOBILE: https://www.cbs.com/
FOLLOW: @IowaAwesome | @IowaWBB | @IowaonBTN

The Big Ten Tournament seemed like it would be all about rubber matches for Iowa. If everything went to plan, the Hawks would face Indiana in the semifinal and Ohio State in the final. The Hawkeyes, Hoosiers, and Buckeyes were the class of the Big Ten in the regular season, and Iowa had split regular seasons matchups with both. The Big Ten Tournament seemed destined to give the teams one more chance to find out who was truly better.

Then fate intervened. The Buckeyes and Hoosiers fell in the Big Ten Tournament quarterfinals, and suddenly Iowa went from needing to beat both to claim a third consecutive Big Ten Tournament title to not having to beat either one. Instead, Iowa beat Penn State and Michigan, two teams the Hawkwyes had only played once in the regular season (both Iowa wins), to advance to the Big Ten Tournament final.

Now Iowa does get a rubber match — just not against the team it expected. It was 5-seed Nebraska that emerged from the top half of the bracket amidst the chaos of this year’s tournament.

Iowa knows the Huskers well. Just over a month ago, the Huskers defeated Iowa at Nebraska in a game that Iowa dominated for three quarters. The defeat was a big blow to Iowa’s NCAA Tournament resume, knocking Iowa off the 1-seed line for the remainder of February and early March.

Thanks in part to upsets around the country, Iowa is again positioned as a 1-seed according to ESPN’s latest Bracketology. If Iowa can get revenge against Nebraska, the Hawkwyes should earn a 1-seed in the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 1992.

6’3″ forward Alexis Markowski is Nebraska’s leading scorer. She’s averaging 15.8 ppg and 10.7 rpg, while shooting 50.7% on two-point attempts and 29.7% from behind the arc.

5’9″ point guard Jaz Shelley is Nebraska’s emotional leader. She’s averaging 13.7 ppg, 5.4 apg, 4.2 rpg, and 1.7 spg. She’s shot 47.7% on two-point attempts and 35.1% on three-point tries this season. Shelley had 30 points and shot 6-of-12 from deep in Nebraska’s 78-68 win over Maryland in the semifinal game. She’s shot well from outside all tournament, going 13-of-30 (43%) in three games thus far.

6’2″ freshman forward Natalie Potts was voted the Big Ten Freshman of the Year for her play in the regular season. She’s averaging 10.3 ppg and 5.5 rpg, while shooting 58.9% inside the arc and 26.7% from deep.

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Nebraska averages 70.5 possessions per 40 minutes, which ranks 164th nationally.

Offensively, Nebraska averages 72.9 points per game, which ranks 54th nationally. The Huskers shoot 48.9% on two-point attempts (71st) and 33.4% on three-point tries (80th). The Huskers are a strong offensive rebounding team. They average 13.3 offensive rebounds per game, which ranks 47th. They also share the basketball well, as their 16.5 assists per game ranks 32nd.

Defensively, Nebraska has been surrendering 63.5 points per game, which ranks 149th. Nebraska has allowed opponents to shoot 46.6% on two-point attempts, which ranks 233rd. The Huskers are much better at guarding the three-point line, allowing teams to shoot 29.7% from deep, which ranks 107th. The Huskers don’t generate many steals (6.3 per game, 287th) or blocks (2.0 per game, 319th).

Iowa beat Nebraska 92-73 in Carver on January 27th. The game wasn’t as easy as the large margin of victory might suggest. With 1:54 to go until halftime, Iowa trailed 31-27. The offense looked as out of sorts as it had all season for most of that first half.

Then Iowa put together a 9-0 run to end the half, and largely controlled the second half. Caitlin Clark was the catalyst of Iowa’s offensive outbreak, scoring 31 of her 38 points in the game in the final 20 minutes and change.

Nebraska got its revenge on February 11 in Lincoln. Iowa took a 14-point lead into the fourth quarter, and the game looked all but over. Then Nebraska went on a massive run, taking the lead with 30 seconds left and holding on for an 82-79 win.

Iowa’s big issue in the fourth quarter was Nebraska’s box-and-one defense. The Huskers held Clark scoreless in the fourth quarter, and her teammates were unable to step up and hit enough shots. Nebraska outscored Iowa in the fourth quarter 27-10.

The good news for Iowa is that the Hawkeye role players are firing on all cylinders in the Big Ten Tournament. If Nebraska sells out to take Clark away, they might do so at their peril.

Slow down Jaz Shelley. Shelley is the straw that stirs the drink for Nebraska. In Iowa’s loss at Nebraska, she had 23 points, including the key three-pointer that gave Nebraska the lead with 30 seconds left. In Nebraska’s semifinal win over Maryland, she had 30 points and 9 assists.

If Iowa can keep Shelley somewhat in check, the Hawkeye offense has a great chance to simply outscore the Cornhuskers on their way to a third consecutive Big Ten Tournament title. If Shelley gets going again, Nebraska will rightly believe it can pull another upset and capture its first Big Ten Tournament championship since 2014.