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Analytics Preview: Nebraska Football vs. UCLA

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Analytics Preview: Nebraska Football vs. UCLA


As the season enters its final stretch, Nebraska football finds itself in a familiar position, needing just one more win to become bowl eligible – a situation reminiscent of Matt Rhule’s first year. You probably already had enough reminders of how November of 2023 played out, so I won’t repeat it. In both his prior stops in college, Rhule entered November two games away from bowl eligibility in year two. He’s not a stranger to pressure. He won the fifth game the first week in November in both of those seasons. In a flair for the dramatic, he waited until the final game to reach win number six.

This weekend will be the Huskers’ best chance to get that sixth win. UCLA is a below average football team, but they’re coming off a bye after their best game of the season. They’ve played the toughest schedule in the nation so they’re no stranger to hard games. It’s still a game Nebraska should win if it can avoid turnovers and play a clean game on special teams.

The quarterback graph this week is an interesting one. Both players diverged early in the year, but their total EPA on the season is trending back together. UCLA’s Ethan Garbers threw a pick in every game of the season before posting a 4-0 touchdown to interception ratio against Rutgers. For the Huskers, Rutgers started a streak of three straight games where Dylan Raiola threw an interception.

I expect UCLA to get yards through the air against Nebraska. They’re 37th in the nation in passing success rate (a measure of how well a team stays ahead of the chains). Despite their ability to move the ball, they rank 84th in EPA/pass at -0.02. The Bruins throw an average of 1.3 interceptions per game, the highest rate in the Big Ten. This has significantly hampered their passing attack, which otherwise shows potential moving the ball.

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Nebraska and UCLA passing chart.

Nebraska and UCLA passing chart. / Arbitrary Analytics

This UCLA passing defense may be just what the doctor ordered for a Huskers offense looking to get going again. UCLA has faced the most pass attempts of any team in the Big Ten, allowed the most yards passing, the highest completion percentage, and the most touchdowns passing. While UCLA effectively limits explosive plays, they tend to be vulnerable to consistent, shorter gains. Raiola should be able to pass for 200 yards on a 70% completion rate against this defense.

UCLA is one of the worst teams in the nation at running the ball. They rank last nationally in both rushing yards and rushing touchdowns per game. QB Garbers is responsible for their longest run of the season at 49 yards. Their longest run by a running back is just 22 yards by the (not-pictured) Keegan Jones. Only Kennesaw State, in their first season of FBS football, has a worse rushing success rate than the Bruins. The Blackshirts should have a good day defending the run.

Nebraska vs. UCLA rushing table.

Nebraska vs. UCLA rushing table. / Arbitrary Analytics

Nebraska running back Dante Dowdell played his best conference game against a stout Buckeye run defense last Saturday. Raiola also had a breakout performance on the ground, adding 31 yards rushing, helping the Huskers break the 100-yard mark for the second time against Big Ten opponents. UCLA has a good run defense that ranks 33rd in EPA/rush allowed this season.

UCLA is better than their 2-5 record would appear. They’ve played four teams in the current AP top 16 but lost all four of those games. Nebraska has also faced four currently ranked opponents managing a win over Colorado. I think the Huskers match up well with the Bruins. UCLA will likely get their yards against a bend-but-don’t-break defensive performance that creates a few big turnovers. Nebraska should carry over their confidence after a hard-fought game against Ohio State and go on to a comfortable victory to secure bowl eligibility.

MORE: Doc’s Diagnosis: A Look at Some Strengths of UCLA, Nebraska Football’s Next Opponent

MORE: Dylan Raiola Says Criticism of OC Marcus Satterfield is ‘Unfair’

MORE: Nebraska Expecting to Face a UCLA Squad That’s Much Better Than Advertised

MORE: College Football Analyst Praises Nebraska’s ‘Cultural Shift’ With Matt Rhule

MORE: Big Ten Head Coach Hot Seat Index After Week 9

Stay up to date on all things Huskers by bookmarking Nebraska Cornhuskers On SI, subscribing to HuskerMax on YouTube, and visiting HuskerMax.com daily.

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Nebraska outfielder Will Jesske coaches local legion team

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Nebraska outfielder Will Jesske coaches local legion team


LINCOLN, Neb. (KOLN) — After a hamstring injury during Nebraska’s baseball season, Will Jesske was advised to take it easy this summer. He is, but Jesske has found a new way to stay involved in the game.

Jesske is coaching a local legion baseball team. He is a volunteer assistant for Lincoln Hotel Group, the senior legion team for Standing Bear High School.

Jesske, a Lincoln Southeast graduate, describes himself as the “hype man” in the LHG dugout. He brings energy and enthusiasm, which players enjoy. Jesske said coaching is a way he can give back to local players while helping LHG’s coaching staff. Jesske played under Tanner Lewis and Kyle Beacom in high school. They now lead the LHG legion program.

Jesske is entering his senior season at Nebraska. He has appeared in 95 games over his career, including 33 during the Huskers’ 43-win season this spring. Jesske was injured early in the season but played through it as Nebraska hosted an NCAA regional. He hit .318 in his junior season. Jesske said he is fully healthy and credited extended rest with his recovery.

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Former Nebraska wrestler AJ Ferrari wanted in Lincoln, accused of assaulting pregnant woman

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Former Nebraska wrestler AJ Ferrari wanted in Lincoln, accused of assaulting pregnant woman


LINCOLN, Neb. (KOLN) – Former Nebraska wrestler AJ Ferrari is wanted in Lancaster County on suspicion of assaulting a pregnant woman in May.

An arrest warrant was filed for Ferrari on Thursday. He faces three felony charges which include first-degree false imprisonment and assault by strangling a pregnant woman.

According to an arrest affidavit, a woman from California contacted police in Lincoln on May 8 just after midnight. She told officers her daughter called for help and pointed them to Ferrari’s apartment.

Police arrived at the apartment and knocked on the door. A pregnant woman came out after several minutes of knocking with no answer. Officers said the woman was visibly upset.

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She told officers that Ferrari tried taking her phone away after an argument, but she wouldn’t let him take it. The arrest affidavit shows Ferrari then dragged her off a bed by her feet.

Police think Ferrari then got on top of her and strangled her, likely until she was unconscious. The woman told police that she felt as though her throat “collapsed” and that she was “breathing through a straw.”

Once regaining consciousness, police said the woman tried hiding in a closet and contacting her mother on another device. But Ferrari followed her, pushed her onto a bed and sat on her until she apologized, according to the affidavit.

She apologized in order to be released, police said. The woman then tried to leave the apartment, but police said Ferrari dragged her by the arm back inside. She found her phone and contacted her mother, yelling “help!”, prosecutors wrote.

Ferrari grabbed the phone and hung up, according to the affidavit. The woman’s mother tried calling several more times before calling police.

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Authorities transported the woman to Bryan West for treatment. Officers said she sustained injuries consistent with strangulation, including bruising around her neck and other abrasions.

Last weekend, Ferrari was arrested in Lincoln County on suspicion of flight to avoid arrest, willful reckless driving and obstructing the police. He was cited after a trooper chased a Corvette in the North Platte area.

Lincoln County authorities told KOLN that Ferrari is out on bond. His current whereabouts are unclear.

Court records show that the woman has filed for a protection order against Ferrari. A hearing has been set for July 7 to give him an opportunity to show the court why one should not be issued.

AJ Ferrari appears in Lancaster County Court(KOLN)

Previously, Ferrari was booked in Lancaster County, Nebraska for an outstanding warrant in January of this year, but those charges were dismissed later that week.

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Ferrari parted ways with the Huskers in April of this year.

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Discounted tickets for Nebraska State Fair over 4th of July Weekend

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Discounted tickets for Nebraska State Fair over 4th of July Weekend


The Nebraska State Fair is celebrating America’s 250th anniversary with a special 72-hour flash sale on Season Passes.

From July 3 through July 5, fans can purchase a 2026 Season Pass for just $50—a significant discount from its regular value of $132.

The pass includes one admission per day for all 11 days of the 2026 Nebraska State Fair, making it ideal for visitors who plan to attend multiple days.

Fair officials say the promotion is one of the biggest Season Pass discounts offered in years and will not be extended.

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After July 5, Season Passes will remain available at a higher discounted price.



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