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Series Preview: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cleveland Guardians

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Series Preview: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cleveland Guardians


The Milwaukee Brewers have surprised a lot of observers of the sport this year. They’ve gotten out to baseball’s largest division lead despite losing their best player and their longtime, highly respected manager, despite a season-long injury to Brandon Woodruff, despite their All-Star closer not getting his first save of the season until August. Most pundits picked them to finish fourth or fifth in the National League Central.

Perhaps the only team in the majors that has been more surprising than the Brewers this year is the Cleveland Guardians. Many expected that Cleveland would be one of several teams that could compete for a relatively weak American League Central, but they certainly weren’t the favorite: they were 76-86 last season, and there weren’t any major offseason additions that would make them a clear favorite. Additionally, their best starting pitcher, Shane Bieber, made only two starts before going down with a UCL injury that required Tommy John surgery.

It turns out none of it has mattered. Cleveland improbably jumped out to the best record in baseball, where they still sit at 72-49, a half-game ahead of the Yankees for the league’s best record. And they’ve got a comfortable 4.5-game lead on the Minnesota Twins (the preseason favorite) in the AL Central.

How have they managed it? The number one reason is that that they’ve got the best bullpen ERA in the league…by more than half a run. Emmanuel Clase has been the best reliever in baseball this season (a 0.64 ERA and only seven walks through 56 13 innings), but it’s not just him: Cade Smith, Hunter Gaddis, and Tim Herrin all have ERAs of 2.20 or lower in at least 49 innings.

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They’ve also gotten solid production from their lineup, led by José Ramirez, who I think might make it to the Hall of Fame one day. A perennial MVP candidate that seemingly no one ever thinks about, Ramírez this season has 31 homers, 98 RBIs, 27 doubles, and 27 stolen bases in 30 tries. He’s on pace to surpass 5 WAR for the fourth straight season, and for the sixth time since 2016. He’s backed up in the lineup by Steven Kwan, who is no longer flirting with a .400 batting average, but who is third in the league in hitting at .325. Josh Naylor, for the third straight season, is providing a valuable run-producing role, as he has 26 homers and 88 runs batted in. One other player with solid production this year: former Brewers farmhand David Fry, who made an All-Star team this year as a 28-year-old DH in his second season. Fry was the PTBNL in the March 2022 trade for reliever J.C. Mejía. That one didn’t work out.

It’s worth noting that the last couple of weeks have been a little strange for the Guardians. From August 3-9, Cleveland lost seven in a row, their longest skid of the season by far. But they have won five in a row since then: the last two of a four-game set in Minnesota and a three-game sweep of the Cubs.

Probable Pitching Matchups

Friday, August 16 @ 7:10 p.m: Aaron Civale (4.88 ERA, 5.47 FIP) vs. Gavin Williams (4.38 ERA, 3.18 FIP)

Gavin Williams is a second-year pitcher who just turned 25 at the end of July. He had an excellent rookie season in which he had a 3.29 ERA in 82 innings across 16 starts. Things have not been as smooth in 2024—he has a 4.38 ERA in 39 innings—but his FIP is just 3.18, and he’s done a good job striking out batters (9.7 per nine) and limiting homers (only three in 39 innings). Williams missed the first three months of the season after suffering an elbow injury in spring training, so he may still be settling in. He is coming off his best start of the year: six innings, four hits, one run, and no walks in a 2-1 victory over the Twins on Saturday.

Aaron Civale is also coming off one of his best starts this season: 6 13 innings and two runs allowed in an 8-3 victory over Cincinnati last Friday.

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Saturday, August 17 @ 6:15 p.m: Freddy Peralta (4.11 ERA, 4.14 FIP) vs. Tanner Bibee (3.39 ERA, 3.40 FIP)

Freddy Peralta’s frustrating season continued Monday, when he allowed two two-run homers in six innings against the Dodgers in a 5-2 loss. He’s faced some good pitching lately (including two recent matchups with one of the NL’s Cy Young frontrunners in Chris Sale), and he’ll do so again on Saturday as he takes on Cleveland’s best starting pitcher this season, Tanner Bibee.

Bibee has allowed two or fewer runs in each of his last four starts, and on the season he’s 10-4 with solid peripherals (9.7 K/9, 2.2 BB/9). Bibee, who is 25 and right-handed, is in his second year, and he’s been quite good in both.

Sunday, August 18 @ 1:10 p.m: Colin Rea (3.72 ERA, 4.56 FIP) vs. Ben Lively (3.71 ERA, 5.02 FIP)

Ben Lively (no relation to Blake, as far as I know) is a bit of a journeyman: he’s 32 and first appeared in the majors with Kansas City in 2017 but this is the first season in which he has reached 100 innings pitched in the majors. He didn’t appear in a major league game between 2019 and 2023, when he resurfaced with Cincinnati. He’s had a reasonably good season, at 10-7 with a 3.71 ERA, but there’s some reason for dubiousness, as his 5.02 FIP is significantly higher than his ERA. He doesn’t strike out many batters and gives up some walks and homers, all indicators of trouble, but he’s managed to limit damage this season.

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Lively’s not completely unlike his counterpart on Sunday, Colin Rea, who has been excellent for much of the season but got shelled by Los Angeles on Tuesday. Rea and Lively have nearly identical ERAs on the season, though that bad outing against the Dodgers inflated Rea’s, and while Rea’s FIP isn’t as bad as Lively’s it’s still a solid tick higher than his ERA at 4.56.

Prediction

Cleveland comes in having won five in a row and they are thus hotter than Milwaukee, but they lost seven straight before that, so Milwaukee actually has the better record over the last two weeks. I’ll give Milwaukee the edge because they’re at home, but it should be a close, fun series between two of baseball’s best.



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Milwaukee fatal shooting; Water Street bar manager wants safety changes

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Milwaukee fatal shooting; Water Street bar manager wants safety changes


A person of interest remains in custody following a fatal shooting on Water Street that left one person dead and two others injured early Sunday.

The Milwaukee Police Department says 22-year-old Dylan Jackson was killed. An 18-year-old and a 19-year-old were also injured.

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Local perspective:

Before the shooting, a bar manager says the area was already chaotic.

Tim Sluga, general manager of Duke’s on Water, said problems were brewing outside the bars before shots were fired. He said he was working Saturday night into Sunday morning and feared violence would occur.

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“Chaos. It was just chaos outside,” said Sluga. “The pistol whippings, the shootings, everything else. The street was already chaos when that happened.”

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Sluga said he was working Saturday night into Sunday morning and feared violence would occur.

“My reaction in general that night was, ‘here we go again,’” said Sluga. “It’s sadly not surprising.”

Sluga said the violence over the weekend reflects a recurring problem in the entertainment district.

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Dig deeper:

Last July, city leaders held an emergency meeting after increased violence in the area. Police later announced plans to increase their presence and curb loitering.

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Sluga said he expected more enforcement.

“We were told by MPD there was going to be a curfew enforced this year, we didn’t see that this weekend,” said Sluga.

Some patrons say they are also frustrated.

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“It’s like the younger crowd pushing out the older crowd now. If you ain’t 21, there’s no reason for you to be down here,” said Dequan Cave of Milwaukee.

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Sluga said bars themselves are generally safe, but problems occur outside.

“It’s a great place and there’s a lot of really good people,” said Sluga. “These are just issues that are out of our control.”

What’s next:

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MPD said a Code Red deployment focused on safety in the entertainment district was in place over the weekend. Police also say plans may be modified to improve downtown safety.

The Source: The information in this post was collected and produced by FOX6 News.

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Can the Brewers duplicate the success of 2025? Here are our predictions for 2026

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Can the Brewers duplicate the success of 2025? Here are our predictions for 2026


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Spring training in Phoenix has wrapped up and the Milwaukee Brewers are set to begin the 2026 regular season at 1:10 p.m. Thursday, March 26 at American Family Field against the Chicago White Sox.

The Brewers exceeded expectations in 2025, recording a franchise-record 97 wins and the best record in baseball (97-65) and advancing to the National League Championship Series. Can they match that in 2026? Here are Journal Sentinel staff predictions for the season.

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HOW I SEE IT: I understand what I’m doing with this prediction, ultimately putting so much of the Brewers’ 2026 outlook on a group of largely unproven, young starters. But I think the Brewers do, too. I’d be lying to you if I said I felt good about the plan to throw Brandon Woodruff and a cavalcade of guys with minimal big-league experience, but I also have to acknowledge the potential upside here. It’s been a few years since the Brewers’ rotation was this talented, and we know what the Brewers can do with those kinds of arms. On offense, I’d also be lying if I said I wasn’t somewhat concerned about their chances of repeating last year’s scoring output without adding any external thump to the lineup. My brain says it’s going to be a step back this year – although not a big one, maybe just to a wild-card spot – but my eyes have seen this film before. And it usually ends with the Brewers fielding a roster much better than the public is giving them credit for.

2026 PREDICTION: 89-73, NL Central champions, lose in NL Wild Card round.

HOW I SEE IT: Count me among the group of non-believers a year ago at this time. Heck, as late as the start of that series against the Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park in late May I penned a story guessing all the players the Brewers would be trading away in the near future because they were going nowhere. How wrong I was. And I’ve learned my lesson – don’t bet against these guys. Especially with the bulk of the team that ended up winning a franchise-record 97 games and advanced to the National League Championship Series for the first time since 2018 returning. No doubt, Freddy Peralta would look really good anchoring the staff. So would Caleb Durbin at third base. All five of the players Milwaukee received in return are going to factor in, however, with right-hander Brandon Sproat, left-hander Kyle Harrison and infielder David Hamilton in particular expected to fill large roles. There are major questions – most notably whether veteran Brandon Woodruff can remain healthy and how the young starting pitching will fare. No question, the Chicago Cubs, Cincinnati Reds and Pirates are all improved. But the road to the Central Division title has run through Milwaukee the past three years, and this group expects to win.

2026 PREDICTION: 90-72, NL Wild Card spot, advance to NL Division Series.

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HOW I SEE IT: I should finally just trust that this franchise can identify the correct unproven arms in the rotation and players who weren’t seen as building blocks in other organizations, transforming that brew into a runaway Central Division title. They did it last year. And 2024. And 2023. Why do I still have this nagging feeling that 2027 will be the year the Brewers really swing for the fences, and 2026 is about seeing what they’ll still need? Remember how weird it was that the Brewers thrived at scoring runs last year because other teams kept committing errors? They were one of the best run-scoring offenses in baseball, and yet it still feels like they got a lot of breaks offensively. Then, they didn’t get perceptively better in the offseason, while the chief rival Cubs and other NL Central brethren did. You know what? Maybe the Brewers just need the semi-professional prognosticators like me to keep hating. And maybe it’s just impossible for me to accept this team has solved the riddle of how to win consistently without overtly addressing their perceived weaknesses. One of these years, though, they really won’t get away with it.

2026 PREDICTION: 86-76, miss playoffs (barely)



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Milwaukee man identified as victim in shooting that injured four others

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Milwaukee man identified as victim in shooting that injured four others


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A 25-year-old Milwaukee man has been identified as the fatal victim following a shooting that injured five people on the city’s north side.

Simeon I. Calvert was shot on March 21 a little after 11 a.m. at the intersection of North Darien and North 37th streets, according to the Milwaukee County Medical Examiner’s Office.

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Calvert was transported to a hospital where he died in the operating room, the medical examiner said.

Four other people were injured in the shooting, ranging in age from 20 to 29 years old.

Police said March 23 that they have “persons of interest” in custody but continue to seek additional information.

The investigation is ongoing, police added, but it is believed that the incident was the result of an argument.

Anyone with any information about the incident is being asked to contact the Milwaukee Police Department at 414-935-7360. To remain anonymous while providing information, contact Crime Stoppers at 414-224-TIPS.

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This story was updated to add new information.



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