The Milwaukee Brewers have surprised a lot of observers of the sport this year. They’ve gotten out to baseball’s largest division lead despite losing their best player and their longtime, highly respected manager, despite a season-long injury to Brandon Woodruff, despite their All-Star closer not getting his first save of the season until August. Most pundits picked them to finish fourth or fifth in the National League Central.

Perhaps the only team in the majors that has been more surprising than the Brewers this year is the Cleveland Guardians. Many expected that Cleveland would be one of several teams that could compete for a relatively weak American League Central, but they certainly weren’t the favorite: they were 76-86 last season, and there weren’t any major offseason additions that would make them a clear favorite. Additionally, their best starting pitcher, Shane Bieber, made only two starts before going down with a UCL injury that required Tommy John surgery.

It turns out none of it has mattered. Cleveland improbably jumped out to the best record in baseball, where they still sit at 72-49, a half-game ahead of the Yankees for the league’s best record. And they’ve got a comfortable 4.5-game lead on the Minnesota Twins (the preseason favorite) in the AL Central.

How have they managed it? The number one reason is that that they’ve got the best bullpen ERA in the league…by more than half a run. Emmanuel Clase has been the best reliever in baseball this season (a 0.64 ERA and only seven walks through 56 ¹⁄₃ innings), but it’s not just him: Cade Smith, Hunter Gaddis, and Tim Herrin all have ERAs of 2.20 or lower in at least 49 innings.

They’ve also gotten solid production from their lineup, led by José Ramirez, who I think might make it to the Hall of Fame one day. A perennial MVP candidate that seemingly no one ever thinks about, Ramírez this season has 31 homers, 98 RBIs, 27 doubles, and 27 stolen bases in 30 tries. He’s on pace to surpass 5 WAR for the fourth straight season, and for the sixth time since 2016. He’s backed up in the lineup by Steven Kwan, who is no longer flirting with a .400 batting average, but who is third in the league in hitting at .325. Josh Naylor, for the third straight season, is providing a valuable run-producing role, as he has 26 homers and 88 runs batted in. One other player with solid production this year: former Brewers farmhand David Fry, who made an All-Star team this year as a 28-year-old DH in his second season. Fry was the PTBNL in the March 2022 trade for reliever J.C. Mejía. That one didn’t work out.

It’s worth noting that the last couple of weeks have been a little strange for the Guardians. From August 3-9, Cleveland lost seven in a row, their longest skid of the season by far. But they have won five in a row since then: the last two of a four-game set in Minnesota and a three-game sweep of the Cubs.

Probable Pitching Matchups

Friday, August 16 @ 7:10 p.m: Aaron Civale (4.88 ERA, 5.47 FIP) vs. Gavin Williams (4.38 ERA, 3.18 FIP)

Gavin Williams is a second-year pitcher who just turned 25 at the end of July. He had an excellent rookie season in which he had a 3.29 ERA in 82 innings across 16 starts. Things have not been as smooth in 2024—he has a 4.38 ERA in 39 innings—but his FIP is just 3.18, and he’s done a good job striking out batters (9.7 per nine) and limiting homers (only three in 39 innings). Williams missed the first three months of the season after suffering an elbow injury in spring training, so he may still be settling in. He is coming off his best start of the year: six innings, four hits, one run, and no walks in a 2-1 victory over the Twins on Saturday.

Aaron Civale is also coming off one of his best starts this season: 6 ¹⁄₃ innings and two runs allowed in an 8-3 victory over Cincinnati last Friday.

Saturday, August 17 @ 6:15 p.m: Freddy Peralta (4.11 ERA, 4.14 FIP) vs. Tanner Bibee (3.39 ERA, 3.40 FIP)

Freddy Peralta’s frustrating season continued Monday, when he allowed two two-run homers in six innings against the Dodgers in a 5-2 loss. He’s faced some good pitching lately (including two recent matchups with one of the NL’s Cy Young frontrunners in Chris Sale), and he’ll do so again on Saturday as he takes on Cleveland’s best starting pitcher this season, Tanner Bibee.

Bibee has allowed two or fewer runs in each of his last four starts, and on the season he’s 10-4 with solid peripherals (9.7 K/9, 2.2 BB/9). Bibee, who is 25 and right-handed, is in his second year, and he’s been quite good in both.

Sunday, August 18 @ 1:10 p.m: Colin Rea (3.72 ERA, 4.56 FIP) vs. Ben Lively (3.71 ERA, 5.02 FIP)

Ben Lively (no relation to Blake, as far as I know) is a bit of a journeyman: he’s 32 and first appeared in the majors with Kansas City in 2017 but this is the first season in which he has reached 100 innings pitched in the majors. He didn’t appear in a major league game between 2019 and 2023, when he resurfaced with Cincinnati. He’s had a reasonably good season, at 10-7 with a 3.71 ERA, but there’s some reason for dubiousness, as his 5.02 FIP is significantly higher than his ERA. He doesn’t strike out many batters and gives up some walks and homers, all indicators of trouble, but he’s managed to limit damage this season.

Lively’s not completely unlike his counterpart on Sunday, Colin Rea, who has been excellent for much of the season but got shelled by Los Angeles on Tuesday. Rea and Lively have nearly identical ERAs on the season, though that bad outing against the Dodgers inflated Rea’s, and while Rea’s FIP isn’t as bad as Lively’s it’s still a solid tick higher than his ERA at 4.56.

Prediction

Cleveland comes in having won five in a row and they are thus hotter than Milwaukee, but they lost seven straight before that, so Milwaukee actually has the better record over the last two weeks. I’ll give Milwaukee the edge because they’re at home, but it should be a close, fun series between two of baseball’s best.