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USC vs. Michigan score prediction by expert college football model

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USC vs. Michigan score prediction by expert college football model


Usually, we had to wait for a Rose Bowl to see USC and Michigan on the same field, but this is now a Big Ten regular season game thanks to the vagaries of conference realignment, as the No. 11 Trojans square off against the No. 18 Wolverines in college football’s Week 4 action on Saturday.

USC makes its Big Ten debut coming in strong, owning a big win against a ranked LSU team in the season opener and flattening Utah State in a 48-0 decision last weekend, ranking No. 7 nationally in passing output with quarterback Miller Moss at the helm.

Even the Trojans’ defense, an often-maligned unit that practically kept the team from the playoff two years ago, has performed better under coordinator D’Anton Lynn’s leadership, ranking 18th in FBS by allowing 10 points per game on average.

Defending national champion Michigan is looking to avoid falling to .500 in head coach Sherrone Moore’s first season, and has already made a change at quarterback, swapping Davis Warren for Alex Orji in an attempt to give the offense a jolt.

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Texas dominated the Wolverines in a 31-12 decision two weeks ago at the Big House, snapping UM’s 23-game home win streak, and now Michigan is hoping to avoid a second loss at home to a ranked opponent in the same season.

What can we expect from the matchup this weekend?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview for how USC and Michigan compare in this Week 4 college football game.

In contrast to most oddsmakers, the simulations are actually going with the home team here.

SP+ predicts that Michigan will defeat USC by a projected score of 30 to 26 and to win the game by an expected 3.9 points.

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The model is giving the Wolverines a 60 percent chance of victory over the Trojans.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 75-68 against the spread with a 52.4 win percentage.

USC is a 5.5 point favorite against Michigan, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook, which set the total at 44.5 points for the game.

FanDuel lists the moneyline odds for USC at -200 and for Michigan at +164 to win outright.

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If you’re using this projection to bet on the game, you should take …

Other analytical models take a different view of the game from the SP+ projections.

That includes College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times and pick winners.

USC comes out as the expected winner in the majority 57.3 percent of the computer’s updated simulations.

That leaves Michigan as the projected victor in the remaining 42.7 percent of sims.

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The index forecasts that USC will be 2.9 points better than Michigan on the same field, not enough to cover this spread.

USC is fourth among Big Ten teams with a 35.7 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff and will win 9.1 games this season, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model predicts Michigan will win 6.9 games this year and has a 6.6 percent shot at the playoff.

When: Sat., Sept. 21
Time: 3:30 p.m. ET | 12:30 p.m. PT
TV: CBS network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams

Follow College Football HQ: Bookmark | Rankings | Picks

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Police say Oakland County teen missing, endangered

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Police say Oakland County teen missing, endangered


Authorities are asking for the public’s assistance to find a missing Oakland County teen who is considered endangered.

Adrianna Smith, 15, was last seen in the 3500 block of South Fenton Road, just south of the city of Holly in northwest Oakland County, according to Michigan State Police.

She is believed to have left her home in a 2002 Jeep Liberty with an adult male, possibly a man named Derek Girtman, MSP said.

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Smith is described as having blonde hair and green eyes. She is about 5 feet, 7 inches tall and 160 pounds. She has one tattoo above her right knee and another on her left ankle.

Anyone with information about Adrianna’s whereabouts is asked to call 911 or the MSP Metro North Post at either (800) 495-4677 or (989) 370-8926.



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US supreme court sides with Michigan in its fight to shut down ageing pipeline

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US supreme court sides with Michigan in its fight to shut down ageing pipeline


The supreme court on Wednesday sided with Michigan in ruling that the state’s lawsuit seeking to shut down a section of an ageing pipeline beneath a Great Lakes channel will stay in state court.

Justice Sonia Sotomayor wrote for a unanimous court that the Enbridge energy company waited too long to try to move the case to federal court.

The case is part of a messy legal dispute about a pipeline that has moved crude oil and natural gas liquids between Superior, Wisconsin, and Sarnia, Ontario, since 1953.

Dana Nessel, Michigan’s attorney general, sued in state court in June 2019 seeking to void the easement that allows Enbridge to operate a 4.5-mile (6.4km) section of pipeline under the straits of Mackinac, which link Lake Michigan and Lake Huron. Nessel, a Democrat, won a restraining order shutting down the pipeline from Ingham county judge James Jamo in June 2020, although Enbridge was allowed to continue operations after meeting safety requirements.

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Enbridge moved the lawsuit into federal court in 2021, arguing it affects US and Canadian trade. But a three-judge panel from the sixth US circuit court of appeals sent the case back to Jamo in June 2024, finding that the company missed a 30-day deadline to change jurisdictions.

The pipeline at issue is called Line 5. Concerns over the section beneath the straits rupturing and causing a catastrophic spill have been growing since 2017, when Enbridge engineers revealed they had known about gaps in the section’s protective coating since 2014. A boat anchor damaged the section in 2018, intensifying fears of a spill.

The Michigan department of natural resources under Gretchen Whitmer, the state’s governor, revoked the straits easement for Line 5 in 2020. Enbridge filed a separate federal lawsuit challenging the revocation.

Enbridge won a ruling from a federal judge blocking the move, but Whitmer, a Democrat, has appealed to the sixth US circuit court of appeals. In March, the supreme court rejected Whitmer’s appeal claiming that she couldn’t be sued in federal court.

It was unclear how the federal ruling blocking Whitmer’s revocation attempt would affect Nessel’s case in state court. The company said in a statement that the judge in the Whitmer case had already decided federal regulators, not the state, are responsible for Line 5 safety and they had found no issues that would warrant shutting it down.

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Enbridge also is seeking permits to encase the section of pipeline beneath the straits in a protective tunnel. The Michigan public service commission granted the relevant permits in 2023, but a coalition of environmental groups and Michigan tribes has filed a lawsuit seeking to void state permits for the tunnel. The state supreme court is weighing that case.

Enbridge also needs approval from the US army corps of engineers and the Michigan department of environment, Great Lakes and energy.

The pipeline is at the center of a separate legal dispute in Wisconsin as well. A federal judge in Madison last summer gave Enbridge three years to shut down part of Line 5 that runs across the Bad River Band of Lake Superior’s reservation. The company has appealed against the shutdown order to the seventh US circuit court of appeals, but it started work in February to reroute the line around the reservation.

The Bad River Band and environmental groups have filed a state lawsuit seeking to halt the work, arguing regulators have underestimated the damage the reroute construction will cause. That case also is pending.



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Hockey roundup: Three Michigan State recruits at U18 worlds; Bruins top Sabres

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Hockey roundup: Three Michigan State recruits at U18 worlds; Bruins top Sabres


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Three Michigan State recruits will represent Team USA at the world U18 hockey championships in Bratislava and Trencin, Slovakia.

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The U.S. opens against Czechia on Wednesday (10 a.m., The Hockey Network).

The future Spartans are: defenseman Nick Bogas (Royal Oak), defenseman Tyler Martyniuk (Washington Township) and forward Brooks Rogowski (Brighton).

Other local commits include: defenseman Abe Barnett (University of Michigan) and goalie Luke Carrithers (Western Michigan).

Team USA’s head coach is Nick Fohr (Dexter) with Kevin Porter (Northville) and Dan Darrow (Livonia) among the assistant coaches.

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The tournament features 10 countries with the final scheduled for May 2.

Bruins tie series with Sabres

The visiting Boston Bruins scored three second-period goals and held off a late Buffalo Sabres rally to post a 4-2 win on Tuesday and even their Eastern Conference quarterfinal playoff series at one victory apiece.

Viktor Arvidsson scored in the last two periods, giving the Bruins 1-0 and 4-0 leads. Morgan Geekie and Pavel Zacha also lit the lamp for Boston, which heads home for Game 3 of the best-of-seven series on Thursday.

Jonathan Aspirot, Casey Mittelstadt and David Pastrnak each dished out two assists for the Bruins, and Jeremy Swayman made 34 saves.

Bowen Byram and Peyton Krebs scored as Buffalo climbed within 4-2 in the closing minutes.

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Sabres goalie Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen allowed four goals on 19 shots before Alex Lyon entered in relief following Arvidsson’s second marker, which came just 16 seconds into the third period.

Buffalo had a 36-26 shot advantage, including 20-8 in the third period, but its power play went 0-for-5. Boston finished 1-for-6 on the man advantage.

The physical contest featured 47 penalty minutes for each team.

Following a scoreless opening period, the Bruins took over in the second, scoring on three of their 11 shots against Luukkonen.

Arvidsson broke the deadlock 4:54 into the middle frame, taking Aspirot’s lob pass in ahead of the defense and beating Luukkonen five-hole with a backhander from the left circle.

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A gaffe by Luukkonen helped Boston double its lead with 3:31 left in the period, as Geekie’s high backhanded dump from the far side of center ice eluded him over the glove.

The Bruins’ power play got in on the action 1:41 later. After Geekie’s one- handed keep-in at the blue line extended the play, Zacha tipped in Pastrnak’s shot from the top of the right circle while stationed in the bumper position.

Arvidsson made it 4-0 early in the third, prompting Sabres coach Lindy Ruff to change goaltenders. Aspirot banked a long feed off the boards to set up the play, leading Arvidsson down the left wing to score on a 2-on-1 rush with Zacha.

The Sabres struck twice in a 1:14 span to make things interesting. Byram accepted Beck Malenstyn’s back pass for a wrister from the top of the right circle to break Swayman’s shutout bid with 6:06 left.

Krebs soon made it 4-2, batting down and scoring the rebound of a Rasmus Dahlin point shot that caromed off the post and back into the crease.

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Detroit Red Wings received six A’s in The Detroit News’ final grades for the 2025-2026 season.

Grades and key takeaways for Finnie, Gibson, Seider, Larkin, Raymond and DeBrincat after the Wings’ late collapse.



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