DETROIT — Former President Donald Trump did not gain many sympathy votes in Michigan after being shot, according to a new survey from a Democratic pollster.

Public Policy Polling, a Democrat-affiliated firm, canvassed 731 Great Lakes State voters July 16 to 17 for liberal group Progress Michigan and included it in its Lake Effect newsletter, a monthly offering that “tracks public opinion about a variety of issues and political figures.”

One poll question: “This past weekend, there was an attempted shooting of former President Donald Trump at a rally. No matter how you were planning to vote in the presidential election in November, does the attempted shooting of former President Trump change how you were planning to vote, or not?”

Only 5% of people said yes. The vast majority, 93%, said no, and 2% said they weren’t sure.

When Progress Michigan listed its key takeaways from the polling, the Trump question was not one of them.

Michael Traugott, University of Michigan Center for Political Studies emeritus research professor of political studies, said he was not surprised by the meager Trump bump. In a polarized environment, committed voters tend to stick with their parties, he said.

‘We’re in a period of very high political polarization, and the importance of party identification as a predictor of the vote has has been increasing recently,” Traugott told The Post. “If you were to look at the data from the 2020, exit polls, about 95% of Democrats voted for Joe Biden and about 95% of Republicans voted for Donald Trump. I think it’s pretty standard data.”

Where Trump was mentioned in the polling takeaways, it was related to a recent US Supreme Court decision that found presidents are immune from prosecution for “official acts.”

That ruling unraveled a federal case against Trump for his alleged mishandling of classified documents.

Polling on the immunity ruling was split. Some 54% of people opposed it, while 38% supported it. The polling cohort tilted left.

While 39% of people polled were Democrats, only 32% were Republicans. Independents were 29% of the group.

By comparison, Democrats hold the Michigan House with a 56-54 edge, and the state Senate with a 20-18 edge. Real life is a much more even split.

Forty-nine percent of people took the poll via text and 51% on landline phones. Forty percent of those polled came from union families. Forty-nine percent voted for Biden in 2020, while 46% voted for Trump. Only 5% voted for someone else or did not vote.

Progress Michigan and Public Policy Polling did not respond to requests for comment.

With Junior Colson and Michael Barrett now in the NFL, Michigan needed not only depth but experience at inside linebacker. Enter Maryland transfer Jaishawn Barham.

The story so far

Barham played high school ball at St. Frances Academy in Baltimore and was a four-star prospect in the 2022 class. the No. 130 overall prospect in the 2022 class, per 247Sports. Barham committed to South Carolina before flipping to Maryland after receiving offers from programs such as Ohio State, Notre Dame, Penn State, and USC, among others.

Barham was an immediate contributor for Maryland during his true freshman campaign in 2022, totaling 58 tackles (6.5 for loss), four sacks, one forced fumble, and one fumble recovery. Barham didn’t surpass those totals last season, dipping to 37 tackles (3 for loss), three sacks, and one interception of Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy.

At the conclusion of the 2023 season Barham entered the transfer portal and committed to Michigan. Barham was with the Wolverines for spring practices, and received props from head coach Sherrone Moore.

“Instinctual, physical, violent, fast — everything you want in a linebacker,” Moore said. “As quiet as can be, just goes about his business the right way, just how we like the transfers that come in here. They just come in, assimilate themselves in the culture and keep attacking. He’s been outstanding, and just I can’t wait to see what he does.”

Outlook moving forward

Barham, who stands 6-foot-3, 248 pounds, will be a welcomed addition to Michigan’s linebacker room this season. Barham and Ernest Hausmann will be Michigan’s primary inside linebackers.

Barham has great athleticism and has a penchant for getting into the opponents backfield via sacks and tackles for loss, which are traits necessary in Michigan defensive coordinator Wink Martindale’s scheme.

Barham will be wearing No. 1 on his uniform and that should send a message before he plays a snap. He expects to become a top linebacker for the Wolverines.

By TYLER SCHNEIDER

Judith Daubenmier’s first dose of political activism came when she volunteered for John Kerry’s presidential campaign in 2004.

In May, the Livingston County Democratic Party chair earned her first selection as a Democratic delegate for Michigan’s 7th Congressional District, which includes Ingham County. That means she’ll vote for the party’s presidential nominee during the virtual roll call before next month’s national convention in Chicago.

Until President Biden bowed out, Daubenmier was sure she would support him.

“I felt sad for him and had a lot of empathy for what he was going through and what it must have felt like to make that decision,” she said. “It took a while to work through that — but then I started thinking about the future.”

What might that political future look like for Michiganders?

Assuming Vice President Kamala Harris locks up the Democratic nomination, Michigan State University political science Professor Matt Grossman said the pivot still won’t necessarily put the state’s 15 electoral votes out of reach for either party.

“To the extent that Biden had a relative advantage over Harris, it would have been among older white voters, which Michigan has a lot more of than other states,” Grossman said. “So, the switch does not necessarily help in Michigan as much as it helped elsewhere. And there certainly still is the danger of losing for Democrats.”

The potential trade-off comes in Harris’ expected appeal among younger and minority voters. In February, 13% of the state’s Democratic primary voters selected the “uncommitted” option to protest Biden’s handling of the Israeli war. Many of those votes came from the 500,000 Arab Americans in Michigan — the most of any state — and college-age adults.

Thasin Sardar, an Islamic Society of Greater Lansing trustee, said Harris’ expected candidacy could chip away at that protest vote.

“I do see some attrition of some who were motivated to join the movement not only because of Gaza but also because Biden was not a winning candidate,” he said. “I’m pretty sure they all care for Gaza, but I think they may also see Harris as having a good chance.”

Before Biden dropped out, some thought he was also starting to lose ground with Black voters, long considered one of his strongest electoral demographics. Could that leak be stymied with Harris — who is half-Black and half-Indian — atop the ticket?

Daubenmier thinks so. But it’s still too early to tell for Michigan State University associate political science Professor Corwin Smidt.

“That’s one group that one would assume she can cement support with, but there’s a little concern about how much of a connection she’ll have with the Black voters in Michigan, which tend to also be older,” Smidt said.

She may earn new supporters elsewhere, however.

“There is an Asian-American community in suburban Detroit that does seem a little less unified politically,” he added. “The fact that she’s half-Indian American could resonate with some of those groups that you don’t traditionally see as active in Michigan politics,” Smidt said.

Despite these unknowns, Grossman predicted that Michigan’s electoral coalition would be “90% to 95% the same.”

Smidt agreed but added that the implications of Biden’s withdrawal may be more visible in who is and isn’t representing Michigan next year.

“When it comes to Michigan, it’s not like this is like a sea change, but it does sort of shuffle the chess pieces or the type of communication you might see,” Smidt said.

Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s future is among the pieces that may be in play. While Whitmer has twice stated that she isn’t interested in becoming Harris’ running mate, her potential to help turn a key swing state blue means she’ll remain in the conversation.

“We have evidence that home state VP candidates do matter, but we’re talking about a very small 1% or so,” Grossman explained. “Were Whitmer in it, that would still make a specific difference in Michigan. Now, there are many other actors on that list, so, more than likely, it will go to someone else.”

If Whitmer stays put, Harris’ rise could still impact Michigan’s future, including in the race for Michigan’s 7th U.S. House District, which includes Ingham County. Democrat Curtis Hertel Jr. and Republican Tom Barrett want to succeed three-term Rep. Elissa Slotkin. The latter, a Democrat, is expected to face former Rep. Mike Rogers for the U.S. Senate, pending the outcome of the Aug. 6 primary.

Based on a poll by the nonpartisan firm Noble Predictive Insights conducted July 8 to 11, Barrett leads Hertel 48% to 41%, with 11% of the survey’s 532 respondents still undecided. The same polls suggested the Senate race would be much closer, with Rogers leading Slotkin by one point at 48%, with 4% undecided.

Grossman said Harris’ increased popularity with younger and minority voters could change the trajectory of these down-ballot races. For one, her candidacy may promote greater turnout, theoretically bolstering Democrats.

“In general, there’s an extremely strong relationship between the presidential vote and votes for all other partisan offices on the same day. It could be two or three points, but that could be important in determining the winner of those elections,” Grossman said.

With Biden out, Smidt added that Hertel’s odds of shoring up younger or moderate-leaning voters may also be boosted.

“There’s sort of a social media cache with Kamala Harris that could mobilize younger people more,” Smidt said. “Because this is a split district, Michigan State voters alone can be a decisive factor.”

Still, Smidt views Michigan’s Senate matchup as “more important than the presidential race.”

“You have Slotkin, who’s got some vulnerabilities in her base in terms of Israel and Gaza, and Rogers, who is seen as kowtowing to Trump in some ways. To me, that race has much more to say about the state party’s future and how both parties look coming into 2026 and 2028 than it does the presidential election,” Smidt said.

Grossman said the results of that race could ultimately echo that of the presidential contest.

“If it were literally 50-50 in the presidential race, you’d still expect Slotkin to win, but not much more than that. She pretty much needs Democrats to either win Michigan or come close,” he said.

State Sen. Sarah Anthony, D-Lansing, believes Democrats can win big if they focus on issues like inflation, the cost of living, the environment and reproductive rights.

“When Harris has come to the state, by and large, it’s been around reproductive health care, which was a defining issue two years ago when the Democratic trifecta was elected and continues to be at the top of mind for Michiganders, particularly women,” Anthony said.

Daubenmier agreed, noting that she hopes Michigan voters will get behind Harris.

“Some people will feel more interested in the campaign now because they wanted to see a new face. They wanted to see someone younger, and I think that will help us tremendously,” she said.

— TYLER SCHNEIDER