Iowa
Women’s bracket winners, losers and a difficult path for Iowa
There won’t be a rematch of the national championship game in women’s college basketball in 2024, but LSU vs. Iowa could be a blockbuster of an Elite Eight matchup. If both even get that far, that is.
Who are the winners and losers of the women’s NCAA tournament bracket? We start on the losers’ side, and it begins with the last two teams standing in 2023. Both aren’t going to make it to Cleveland. In fact, neither one might be there.
The Albany 2 Regional has three teams that many might have picked to make the Final Four before the bracket was revealed: defending national champion LSU, national runner-up Iowa and UCLA.
Who thought this was a good idea? Apparently the NCAA selection committee, which decided to jam-pack that trio together, along with No. 4 seed Kansas State.
As ESPN analyst Rebecca Lobo said, South Carolina, the No. 1 overall seed in the tournament and top seed in the Albany 1 Regional, earned — and received — what appears to be the so-called “easiest” regional bracket. Iowa — a No. 1 seed for the first time since 1992 — should have earned the second-easiest corner of the bracket, but instead got the hardest.
The Big Ten tournament champion Hawkeyes, SEC tournament runner-up LSU and Pac-12 semifinalist UCLA were all in the top four in the preseason Associated Press poll and are in the top eight now. Of course, poll rankings are one thing and NCAA tournament placement another. Still, it’s a surprise to see them all together.
“Initially, I just thought, ‘Oooh, this is a tough, tough region,’” LSU coach Kim Mulkey said of her first reaction to the bracket.
Let’s further break down the women’s bracket winners and losers, and what the path ahead looks like for unbeaten South Carolina and Caitlin Clark and Iowa.
Winners
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South Carolina Gamecocks
Two-time national champion South Carolina is in Albany 1 Regional along with No. 2 Notre Dame, No. 3 Oregon State and No. 4 Indiana. The Irish are the ACC tournament champions and are playing well, but the Gamecocks have the benefit of having faced them already this season. That was back in November in Paris — a 29-point Gamecock victory — and both teams have since grown a lot.
The Gamecocks have been so good they were probably going to be “winners” regardless of their bracket matchups. But coach Dawn Staley should be pleased with the path in front of her team.
Center Kamilla Cardoso will miss South Carolina’s opener against the Presbyterian-Sacred Heart winner after her ejection for fighting in the SEC tournament final. That will be of little consequence in that game. But the Gamecocks will be glad to have her back against the winner of North Carolina-Michigan State, the 8-9 matchup.
Provided the Gamecocks get through to the Sweet 16 — they last fell in the second round in 2013 — they could face a No. 4 seed Indiana team that hopes to be much healthier since its quarterfinal loss in the Big Ten tournament.
If there is an Elite Eight matchup between South Carolina and Notre Dame, we’ll see two of the best freshmen in the country in the Gamecocks’ MiLaysia Fulwiley and the Irish’s Hannah Hidalgo. But South Carolina’s inside presence and depth should take the Gamecocks through to Cleveland.
Ivy League
The conference got two teams in the field: Ivy Madness champion Princeton and runner-up Columbia. It’s just the second time two Ivy teams reached the field (Penn and Princeton advanced in 2016).
The Tigers and Lions both finished 13-1 in league play, with Columbia handing Princeton its lone league loss, 67-65 on Feb. 25 in New York.
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USC Trojans
Not since 1986, Trojans legend Cheryl Miller’s senior year, had the program earned a No. 1 seed until Sunday. USC, the top seed in the Portland 3 Regional, has had a breakthrough season, thanks in large part to JuJu Watkins, the top freshman in a stellar rookie class. But as the Trojans proved in winning the Pac-12 tournament final when Stanford focused on shutting down Watkins, USC is more than just its young superstar.
The Trojans have waited a long time — since 1994 — to host the early rounds of the NCAA tournament again, so that’s exciting for USC, too.
USC looks to have a good path to the Elite Eight, where an epic showdown with Paige Bueckers and No. 3 seed UConn — by far the most decorated team in this corner of the bracket – could await.
Texas Longhorns
The Big 12 tournament champion earned its first No. 1 seed since 2004. The Longhorns, like fellow No. 1 seed Iowa, didn’t win their conference regular-season title but did win the league tournament.
After losing star guard Rori Harmon for the season in late December to a knee injury, Texas had to navigate Big 12 play without her. They lost to Baylor, Kansas State and regular-season champ Oklahoma twice. In the Big 12 tournament, the Longhorns beat Kansas, K-State and Iowa State, with freshman Madison Booker winning MVP honors.
Texas has made the Elite Eight twice since Vic Schaefer took over as coach in 2020-21. He said after the Big 12 final that he thought the Longhorns had proven they deserved a No. 1 seed. The committee agreed.
“When you win a championship in a league, you play the schedule these kids have played, I don’t know what else we could do,” Schaefer said. “I feel really confident in this team. They’ve done nothing but show me that they can do it.
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UConn Huskies and Tennessee Lady Vols
Both teams could make waves in the bracket. UConn ran the table in the Big East this season. The Huskies could be motivated by a potential revenge matchup with Ohio State in the Sweet 16, as the Buckeyes knocked UConn out of the tournament in that round last year.
Tennessee, the Portland 4 Regional No. 6 seed, comes into the NCAA tournament smarting from a last-second loss to South Carolina in the SEC semifinals. But the Lady Vols know from the way they’ve played the Gamecocks that they can compete with anyone.
Tennessee’s potential path to the Sweet 16, which would likely involve a win at No. 3 seed NC State in the second round, isn’t easy. But the Lady Vols have a chance.
Losers
Iowa Hawkeyes
Last season, Stanford — the No. 1 seed in Iowa’s regional — was eliminated in the second round by Ole Miss. The Rebels were subsequently defeated by Louisville, which then fell to Iowa in the Elite Eight.
It wasn’t an easy path to the Final Four for the Hawkeyes in 2023, but it seems easier in retrospect to what they could face this season in Albany 2.
The potential difficulty starts in the second round. The Hawkeyes, who shouldn’t have trouble in their opener against the Holy Cross-UT Martin winner, would face the 8-9 West Virginia-Princeton winner next.
Last year, Georgia’s ability to defend Iowa made for a nerve-wracking second-round win for the Hawkeyes. It could be similar if they face West Virginia, which leads the Big 12 in steals. Against Princeton, Iowa would face a program that upset Kentucky two years ago.
Should seeds hold, Iowa will have a third meeting this season vs. Kansas State; the teams played twice in November, with the Wildcats winning the first and the Hawkeyes the second. Center Ayoka Lee provides the muscle inside for a K-State team that pushed Texas in the Big 12 semifinals.
If Iowa makes the Elite Eight against either No. 2 UCLA or No. 3 LSU, one of the biggest issues will be how the Hawkeyes combat the size inside for both teams.
UCLA Bruins
Placement-wise, the Bruins wouldn’t mind trading spots with their Pac-12 rivals Stanford in Portland 4 or USC in Portland 3. But it didn’t work out that way after UCLA fell to the Trojans in the Pac-12 tournament semifinals. The Pac-12, in its final season as we know it, has three teams in the top two seeds for the first time in conference history. UCLA appears to have the toughest path of the three.
The Bruins won an AIAW championship in 1978. But it’s fair to say UCLA is the best program to never make the women’s Final Four in the NCAA era, which began in 1982. During parts of this season, the Bruins looked as if they had a strong chance to make that breakthrough in 2024. We’re not ruling them out, especially with a fifth-year senior leader in Charisma Osborne and a stellar sophomore class that includes 6-foot-7 post Lauren Betts.
But being in this regional makes it more difficult for the Bruins. If seeds hold, they would have to get through LSU and Iowa back-to-back, two very different types of teams. Can UCLA do it? Yes, but it’s a real challenge.
LSU Tigers
The defending champs, the No. 3 seed in Albany 2, also fit into our bracket losers. However, their path doesn’t seem quite as tough as that of Iowa or UCLA. For three reasons: One, they’ve already played the best team in the country, South Carolina, twice. The Tigers lost their SEC regular-season and tournament matchups with the Gamecocks, but they hung with them both times. Second, LSU won the NCAA title last season, beating Iowa in the final, so the Tigers should face this regional with confidence. Third, Mulkey already has four national championships as a coach. This is her time of year.
Miami Hurricanes
Last year, the Hurricanes were one of the biggest stories of March on the women’s side. A No. 9 seed, they beat No. 8 Oklahoma State, No. 1 Indiana and No. 4 Villanova to reach the Elite Eight, where they lost to eventual national champion LSU.
But last year’s mojo didn’t carry over for Miami to 2024. The Hurricanes went 19-12 overall but were 8-10 in the ACC. Victories over NCAA tournament teams NC State, Duke and North Carolina weren’t enough to offset some of Miami’s losses.
IU basketball lost its third straight game, falling 74-57 on Saturday afternoon to Iowa at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall.
Here are five takeaways from the loss to the Hawkeyes:
Indiana’s second-half woes continue in third straight loss
For a third consecutive game, Indiana was outscored in the second half.
While Saturday’s final 20 minutes weren’t as bad as performances against Nebraska or Michigan State, it’s a concerning trend that the Hoosiers can’t finish games strong.
In his postgame press conference, Darian DeVries mentioned fatigue as a possible reason for IU faltering down the stretch.
“It’s been pretty similar, and we’ve got to figure out a way to get a little more rest probably for those guys,” DeVries said. “As we get into the middle of the second half, there’s 10, 12 minutes to go — and it’s been consistent the last three games — we look fatigued. That’s where some of that maybe sloppiness and the turnovers, and that’s where you start to see some of that showing up.”
If fatigue is an issue, that problem doesn’t appear fixable with this roster. Indiana’s depth is limited, as the Hoosiers play only eight players.
Whether it was recruiting misses in the portal or an inability to get anything out of the players deeper on the bench, the Hoosiers have five scholarship players who have been invisible this season.
Indiana’s defense continues its regression in Big Ten play
Early in the season, the Hoosiers were ranked in the top 20 nationally in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency.
That lofty ranking now feels like a distant memory.
After surrendering 1.29 points per possession in Saturday’s loss against Iowa, Indiana is now allowing 1.147 points per possession in conference play.
That number ranks 10th in the league and the Hoosiers haven’t even hit their toughest stretch of the league schedule. Thus far, IU has played the 13th-toughest schedule in league games, per KenPom.
Overall, the Hoosiers rank just inside the top 60 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency.
Indiana has now given up over 1.24 points per possession in three straight games and in four of its last five.
Struggles continue for Tucker DeVries
Tucker DeVries, a two-time Missouri Valley Conference player of the year at Drake, was expected to be one of the top forwards in the Big Ten.
DeVries, however, has struggled to find the shooting stroke that has led him to scoring more than 2,000 career points between stops at Drake, West Virginia and now Indiana.
In Saturday’s loss to Iowa, DeVries failed to reach double figures in scoring for the fourth time in five games.
He was just 2-for-9 from the field and finished with seven points in 33 minutes. Through seven Big Ten games, DeVries is 12-for-47 on 3-pointers, which is just 25.5 percent.
“He’s certainly in one of those shooting slumps that everybody goes through at some point in time, but for him, has been an extended one here for a good chunk of time,” Darian DeVries said. “He’s certainly been putting in the work in our practices and stuff. He’s shooting the heck out of it.
“It’s just one of those things. He’s just got to get it going and got to continue to find those better looks and opportunities that we can get him free a little bit more.”
Indiana can’t stop fouling in Big Ten play
Iowa, a team that isn’t built to get to the free-throw line, got there 23 times on Saturday in its 17-point win against the Hoosiers.
The Hawkeyes posted a free-throw rate (FTA/FGA) of 50 percent on Saturday.
Iowa capitalized on the opportunities the stripe, finishing 21-for-23.
Indiana now ranks 16th in the league in opponent free-throw rate in conference games at 40 percent.
In five of IU’s six losses this season, the Hoosiers have allowed an opponent free-throw rate of more than 45 percent.
The Hoosiers had no answer for Bennett Stirtz
Iowa’s Bennett Stirtz, who is showing up as a potential lottery pick in next June’s NBA draft, showed off his well-rounded game on Saturday afternoon.
Stirtz, who began his career at Northwest Missouri State, a Division II school, followed Ben McCollum to Drake last season and established himself as one of the nation’s best mid-major guards.
This season, Stritz is proving himself to be one of the best guards in the country.
On Saturday, he controlled the game offensively, finishing with 27 points on 7-for-13 shooting from the field and a 10-for-11 mark from the free-throw line.
Stirtz also dished out five assists in 38 minutes.
“He was terrific. He’s so good in two-man game actions, and you’re going to see it over and over and over again,” Darian DeVries said. “He just plays until he gets an advantage, either for himself or for a teammate. They do a great job of that. He’s so crafty and smart at being able to take advantage of those and then creating and drawing fouls and getting to the free-throw line. He certainly was really good tonight.”
(Photo credit: IU Athletics)
See More: Five Takeaways, Iowa Hawkeyes
Follow along with live updates below as the Hoosiers take on Iowa at home.
Feel free also to join the discussion thread below to share your views.
Indiana and the Hawkeyes tip off at 2:00 p.m. ET on FOX.
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FINAL: Iowa 74 – Indiana 57
SECOND HALF
70-52 Iowa with 2:59 left.
- Not much to report other than a majority of fans have fled to the exits. The only few times the crowd really got into it were after a few consecutive shots made, but that did not happen often. Iowa has shot 51 percent from the field compared to Indiana’s 40 percent.
Iowa is pulling away, 60-48 with 7:55 to play.
- Bennett Stirtz has caught fire. He’s up to 25 points on 7-for-12 shooting so far. He has beaten Indiana’s defense in multiple ways today. There’s a reason he’s expected to be a high pick in the upcoming NBA draft.
- Tayton Conerway had to hop off the floor after he went down holding his lower right leg. He has since returned to play, but had to go to the locker room to get it checked first.
49-43 Hawkeyes with 11:33 to play.
- Indiana is hanging in there. Despite some offensive setbacks, the Hoosiers have held Iowa scoreless in the past two and a half minutes.
- Tayton Conerway leads IU with 16 points so far, and that’s mainly been of the dribble drive. His speed downhill has yet to be matched on the defensive side. If he can pass out when Iowa collapses, that can open up more favorable looks from beyond the arc.
Iowa up 42-37 with 15:37 left to play.
- IU with a much-needed energetic start to the second half. They’ve started with three made shots, including a three-pointer from Nick Dorn, who is in place of Enright.
- Lamar Wilkerson has been quiet today with just seven points. Bennett Stirtz has been matched up with him today, which is a large reason why. Stirtz can hurt you on offense, but backs it up on the defensive side as well.
HALFTIME: Iowa 38 – Indiana 28
FIRST HALF
IU cuts it to 30-25 with 3:47 remaining in the half.
- When Tayton Conerway plays well, the entire team benefits from it. I think it was four straight possessions he took it to the rack and had easy layups, and then followed that up with some good defense to force a shot clock violation.
- Indiana has been able to break in a little bit of Iowa’s defense as they’ve hit nine of their last 10 from the field. Defensively, though, they have allowed seven makes of Iowa’s last eight attempts.
28-17 Iowa after a long segment between timeouts. 6:35 to go in the half.
- Indiana just looks a step behind the Hawkeyes on both sides. They can’t move, find many open looks on offense, and Bennett Stirtz is cutting through the defense on nearly every possession.
- On the plus side, Tucker DeVries has made two from beyond the arc so far. He’s contributing in other ways as well, with three rebounds and two assists to add.
10-5 Hawkeyes with 11:47 in the half.
- Enright gets one to fall from beyond the arc after two ugly misses from his first few attempts. Outside of that, Iowa has a pretty good gameplan executing on defense. Wilkerson and DeVries are doubled after every dribble handoff on the perimeter, which has forced Indiana off the three-point line and late into shot clocks.
- IU is doing a decent job on the defensive side so far. Iowa is 4 of 11 from the field so far with two turnovers. Stirtz has five points to lead them.
Iowa leads 7-2 with 15:25 left in the half.
- Sluggish start on both sides for the Hoosiers. They’ve started 1-for-8 from the field and have given up a few easy looks on defensive miscues. Iowa’s defense hasn’t given up an easy look yet.
- Both Conerway and Enright have one foul each through the first media timeout. DeVries is going to need both of them to help mitigate Bennett Stirtz as much as possible.
PREGAME NOTES
- Jason Drake and Josh Harris are both listed as out. Otherwise, it’s a clean injury report for both teams.
- Same starters for Indiana: Enright, Conerway, Wilkerson, DeVries, Bailey
Game Day Essentials:
Indiana (12-5, 3-3) vs. Iowa (12-5, 2-4)
- Tip Time: 2:00 p.m. Eastern, Saturday
- Location: Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall (17,222), Bloomington, Ind.
- Television: FOX (Jason Benetti, Steve Smith)
- Radio: IU Radio Network (Don Fischer, Errek Suhr, John Herrick)
- Stream: Fox Sports
- Point Spread: Indiana is around a 1.5-point favorite
- KenPom Projected Score: Indiana 73 Iowa 72
- History: Indiana leads, 107-83
- Last Meeting: IOWA 85, IU 60 on Jan. 11, 2025, in Iowa City
- Tickets (via our StubHub affiliate link)
The Daily Hoosier –“Where Indiana fans assemble when they’re not at Assembly”
Related
Iowa State Cyclones (14-4, 2-4 Big 12) at Oklahoma State Cowgirls (15-4, 4-2 Big 12)
Stillwater, Oklahoma; Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
BOTTOM LINE: Oklahoma State takes on No. 19 Iowa State after Stailee Heard scored 21 points in Oklahoma State’s 85-76 victory against the Kansas Jayhawks.
The Cowgirls are 10-1 on their home court. Oklahoma State is 1-0 in games decided by less than 4 points.
The Cyclones are 2-4 in conference matchups. Iowa State has a 12-1 record in games decided by 10 points or more.
Oklahoma State makes 48.8% of its shots from the field this season, which is 10.7 percentage points higher than Iowa State has allowed to its opponents (38.1%). Iowa State scores 23.8 more points per game (85.4) than Oklahoma State allows (61.6).
The matchup Sunday is the first meeting this season between the two teams in conference play.
TOP PERFORMERS: Micah Gray is scoring 15.1 points per game and averaging 1.8 rebounds for the Cowgirls. Haleigh Timmer is averaging 2.5 made 3-pointers over the last 10 games.
Audi Crooks is scoring 27.6 points per game with 7.6 rebounds and 1.6 assists for the Cyclones. Jada Williams is averaging 13.5 points and 3.0 rebounds while shooting 37.3% over the past 10 games.
LAST 10 GAMES: Cowgirls: 7-3, averaging 81.7 points, 32.3 rebounds, 15.6 assists, 9.0 steals and 3.1 blocks per game while shooting 46.8% from the field. Their opponents have averaged 64.4 points per game.
Cyclones: 6-4, averaging 79.0 points, 31.2 rebounds, 20.8 assists, 5.9 steals and 2.2 blocks per game while shooting 48.7% from the field. Their opponents have averaged 70.1 points.
___
The Associated Press created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.
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