Iowa’s agriculture industry could see the impacts of tariffs that President Donald Trump said he will impose as soon as Saturday.

Shortly after Trump was elected in November, he announced a plan for 25 percent tariffs on goods imported from Mexico and Canada, and 10 percent tariffs on imports from China. Now, those tariffs are expected to go into effect Feb. 1.

Trump has said the tariffs are aimed at pressuring Canada and Mexico to stop the flow of migrants and fentanyl crossing their borders into the United States. Economists have said the new tariffs could increase taxes and decrease economic output.

Iowa State University agricultural economist Chad Hart said adding Mexico and Canada into the mix could make things even more difficult for the state’s agriculture industry — which has faced low commodity prices and declining farm income — should the countries decide to retaliate with their own trade measures.

Hart noted that agriculture is one of this country’s major export industries, and Canada and Mexico are some of the biggest importers of products produced in Iowa, including soybeans and pork.

“Mexico alone would create some big hits to Iowa agriculture, throwing Canada on top of that,” Hart said. “That’s why there’s been such concern about these tariffs moving forward here, we do know that it will create some economic damages that show up for Iowa farmers.”

In 2023, 30 percent of Iowa’s total goods exports were to Canada, with the state exporting $5.5 billion in goods to the country.

Iowa Republicans: Tariffs are Trump’s ‘negotiation tactic’

Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds says Trump is committed to farmers and she will continue to stay in contact with his administration about the impacts.

“President Trump has already used tariffs as an undeniably successful negotiation tactic with foreign trade partners,” Reynolds said in a statement. “Colombia backed down from the President’s threat of 25 percent tax on imports and are now accepting the return of illegal immigrants who invaded our country.”

Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst said she believes Trump’s tariffs will stop the flow of fentanyl across the borders.

“After the Biden administration created a record $45.5 billion agricultural trade deficit, President Trump is working to make sure Americans are getting the best deal and stopping the flow of fentanyl that has hurt our communities,” Ernst said in a statement. “I will always listen to Iowans and bring their ideas to the President.”

Debi Durham, director of the Iowa Economic Development Authority, said the tariffs echo negotiating tactics Trump used during his first term in office.

“The way I look at it, it’s nothing he didn’t do the first term. He uses it for negotiating tactics,” Durham said. “So at this point, I couldn’t pinpoint anything that’s going to have an effect one way or another.”

Iowa Sen. Chuck Grassley describes himself as a “free trader” and said he doesn’t believe in tariffs but understands Trump uses them as bargaining chips.

“I think the tactic is questionable but I am not going to bad mouth Trump’s approach,” Grassley said during a call with Iowa radio networks on Jan. 21. “I’m going to sit and see how it works out, I hope he’s successful.”

Iowa Democratic Party Chair Rita Hart said the tariffs will hurt manufacturing jobs, raise consumer prices, lower grain markets and increase Iowans’ taxes.

“Looks like Donald Trump is once again betting the farm on risky trade war policies,” she said in a statement. “Between falling incomes and layoffs in the ag economy, now is not the time to be levying tariffs on allies like Canada. This does not look like using tariffs as a ‘last resort’ as some in our congressional delegation have cautioned. Let’s not forget that once tariffs are in place, they are difficult to remove.

Trump’s use of tariffs this presidency seems to be occurring at a quicker pace than his last term, Chad Hart said, noting the president has a better understanding of which “levers to pull.” He says these quick changes are creating challenges for people who work in Iowa’s agriculture industry as they try to determine what tariffs will look like in the coming years.

“A big challenge for everybody right now is trying to figure out what tariffs may be coming, when they may be here, when they may be taken off. How might that happen?” Hart said. “There’s just a lot of unknowns here, and it can move very quickly, given the speed at which President Trump is moving.”