Indiana
Undersupply of college graduates clobbers Indiana’s economy
Every time I clarify why Indiana wants extra children to attend faculty, I get some model of the remark, “a youngster doesn’t want faculty to do effectively; we’d like extra individuals within the trades.” Whereas it’s true for a couple of proficient people, that’s not true for a metropolis or state. Economists name this the ‘fallacy of composition,’ which I can clarify with a couple of info.
In a typical 12 months, greater than 85,000 Hoosiers flip 18 years outdated. Of those, fewer than 75,000 end highschool, and of those fewer than 42,000 head to school. In the end, about 60 % of these will full their diploma. Which means the state’s pipeline of college-educated staff is right now about 27,000 per 12 months. Nevertheless, the online loss from mind drain is about 10 % and rising. Which means Indiana can anticipate solely about 25,000 faculty graduates per 12 months to complete faculty and dwell in Indiana.
That is an financial improvement catastrophe. To see how this hobbles Indiana, we must always take into account how nationwide labor markets worth training.
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Nationwide, about eight in 10 of all internet new jobs go to four-year faculty graduates. The remaining two in 10 jobs go to those that maintain both an affiliate diploma or have been to some faculty. Which means if Indiana have been rising just like the nationwide economic system, all the brand new job development would go to those that’d been to school. Demand for staff who haven’t been to school can be restricted to changing positions of retiring non-college staff. Maybe it’s a unhealthy development, however it’s a 30-year development that appears sure to proceed.
In a typical 12 months, roughly 25,000 retiring staff maintain a highschool diploma or much less, however Indiana’s instructional system delivers roughly 40,000 staff with no faculty plans. Nevertheless, in that very same 12 months, about 31,000 retiring staff maintain at the least some postsecondary training (both some faculty or a level). The rationale there are extra retiring staff with levels is that perhaps half the parents holding a highschool diploma or much less don’t work.
Which means Indiana oversupplies the marketplace for non-college-educated staff by about 15,000 children every year, and undersupplies faculty graduates by about 6,000 children. That partly is why so many individuals who haven’t been to school by no means work, and why nearly everybody with a university diploma does. These info clarify almost the entire sluggish development that plagues Indiana’s economic system. In addition they clarify why wages are declining for the oversupplied non-college-graduate, and why companies needing a number of faculty graduates will select to find in locations outdoors of Indiana.
The “fallacy of composition” is the mistaken perception that what’s true of 1 individual can also be true of the group. The maths surrounding job openings within the expert trades ought to silence those that suppose they provide a significant choice for many Hoosier college students.
Right now, Indiana has about 36,000 adults within the expert trades: carpenters, plumbers, masons and electricians. Most of those staff earn good cash, have cheap job safety and see alternative for upward mobility. There may be plentiful alternative for proudly owning a enterprise or doing specialty work throughout the commerce. For a person, the expert trades are as advantageous and honorable a profession selection as something out there.
Of these 36,000 commerce staff, 2.0 to three.0% retire every year, and some change jobs, principally into different trades. Over the previous 20 years, the variety of jobs for the expert trades has declined by about 0.5% every year. That signifies that of these 40,000 Hoosiers turning age 19 subsequent 12 months who gained’t be in faculty, perhaps 1,000 jobs within the trades will change into out there. That’s roughly the identical variety of Ph.Ds awarded within the state every year. I’d encourage any younger one who is to earn a doctorate or grasp a commerce. Each are nice choices for a sensible, hardworking younger individual, however collectively will solely account for about 2.5 % of job openings every year.
Now, I do know some people will nonetheless argue, “however I can’t discover a plumber; we’d like extra children within the trades.” That’s merely mistaken. Since 2000, employment within the expert trades in Indiana is down greater than 10%. Brick mason employment is down 29.3%, electricians down 4.9%, carpenters down 15.4% and plumbers down 9.2%. Wages in every of those trades are additionally down, at an inflation-adjusted common of 11.2% since 2000. As highschool economics lessons clarify, when employment shrinks and wages are down, there’s not a labor scarcity.
The very fact is that Indiana is chock stuffed with different occupations that can decline in quantity over the approaching era. Over the following 20 years, Indiana could have fewer manufacturing unit jobs, fewer transportation jobs and fewer building jobs than can be found right now. Mainly, each job that requires solely a highschool diploma or much less is vulnerable to long-term job losses.
The only financial argument for sending extra Hoosier children to school is that it’s the place the roles of the longer term will probably be. There may be yet one more profit of getting better-educated state. Wages for staff with out a faculty diploma are increased in locations that even have a bigger share of faculty grads. For instance, for a building employee, shifting to a county with 10% extra faculty graduates would enhance their earnings by greater than 10% or roughly $6,000 per 12 months.
Extra from Michael Hicks:Inflation is a coverage and political downside
The easiest way to spice up wages for these with out a faculty diploma is to encompass them with extra faculty graduates. That is additionally one of the best ways to spice up your native inhabitants development. Nationwide, 43% of inhabitants development occurred within the prime 10% of counties by instructional attainment. Solely 5 of these counties are in Indiana, about half the quantity we must always have given our dimension. The issue of oversupplying low-skilled staff and undersupplying high-skilled staff isn’t just a person downside for Hoosier staff. It signifies that just a few choose elements of Indiana will get pleasure from financial or inhabitants development. The remainder of the state will endure financial decline.
Let me write this as plainly as I can. So long as Indiana continues to undersupply faculty graduates to the fashionable economic system and oversupply those that haven’t gone to school, we are going to slip farther and farther behind the nationwide common. Fixing this gained’t be simple, cheap or fast. Even with dramatic enhancements, we’re a long time away from making it to “common” by way of instructional attainment or per capita incomes. It’s a unhappy factor to confess that attending to “common” is an aspirational objective.
Michael J. Hicks is the director of the Heart for Enterprise and Financial Analysis and the George and Frances Ball Distinguished Professor of Economics within the Miller School of Enterprise at Ball State College.
Indiana
Warde Manuel reveals how College Football Playoff committee views outcome of Indiana vs Ohio State
A Top-5 showdown highlighted the Week 13 slate as Indiana and Ohio State squared off at The Horseshoe. Ultimately, the Buckeyes got a blowout victory over the Hoosiers, and all eyes turned toward Tuesday’s College Football Playoff rankings to see how the committee viewed that outcome.
Of course, Indiana wasn’t the only top-ranked team to fall last week. Multiple others did, as well, which likely helped the Hoosiers stay in the Top 10. According to committee chair Warde Manuel, IU has the resume to be the No. 10 team in the country.
Manuel pointed out it wasn’t all bad for Indiana in last week’s matchup. The Hoosiers had some good moments, notably the opening drive. Although they dropped five spots, Manuel said IU still did enough to be in the Top 10.
“We viewed Indiana – they played well at times against Ohio State,” Manuel said on the CFP rankings reveal show on ESPN. “And Ohio State pulled out a victory and really came on in the second half of that game. But we were impressed with some of the things that Indiana did. And they dropped five, but we still felt that their body of work was strong enough to remain in the Top 10.”
Indiana’s strength of schedule was a key point of conversation entering last week’s game. The Hoosiers’ schedule ranked No. 106 in the country through Week 12, according to ESPN, which was the second-weakest of the College Football Playoff Top 25. After the Ohio State game, though, IU’s schedule now ranks No. 51.
Of course, the numbers also back up Indiana’s case to be one of the top teams. The Hoosiers rank No. 9 in the nation in scoring defense and No. 2 in scoring offense. That’s why, after Saturday’s game, Curt Cignetti scoffed at a question about whether they should still be in the 12-team field before answering with a wink and smile.
“Is that a serious question?” Cignetti said in his postgame press conference, with a smirk. “I’m not even gonna answer that one. The answer’s so obvious.”
PARADISE ISLAND, The Bahamas – The slate of marquee nonconference games surrounding Thanksgiving has become known as Feast Week.
Tournaments in Maui, the Bahamas, Las Vegas and elsewhere generate top-25 matchups on a daily basis. Monday, Memphis upset back-to-back national champion No. 2 UConn. No. 4 Auburn erased a 16-point halftime deficit to take down No. 5 Iowa State. And No. 12 North Carolina came back from 21 points down to defeat Dayton.
That was just the start of a week that makes November feel a bit like March. No. 14 Indiana will compete in the eight-team Battle 4 Atlantis tournament in the Bahamas, along with No. 3 Gonzaga, No. 24 Arizona, West Virginia, Oklahoma, Providence and Davidson.
Indiana is off to a 4-0 start and rose two spots in the latest AP Top 25 poll. Three wins have come against mid-major foes Southern Illlinois-Edwardsville, Eastern Illinois and UNC Greensboro. Indiana also handled South Carolina in a 16-point win, but the Gamecocks have taken a step back from last year’s second-place SEC finish.
And with a nonconference slate that features just one high-major opponent outside its three opportunities in the Bahamas, the Hoosiers must eat up all the opportunities Feast Week offers.
That starts with a matchup against Louisville, a team Indiana defeated 74-66 last year in the Empire Classic. But the new-look Cardinals are a completely different unit now, led by former College of Charleston head coach Pat Kelsey, 13 new transfers and one freshman. Louisville failed its biggest test of the season so far, a 77-55 home loss to Tennessee, but it’s shaping up to be a far more competitive team than those that went 12-52 in two years under former head coach Kenny Payne.
Analytics site Bart Torvik favors the Hoosiers by 3.6 points and ranks them 30th nationally, compared to the No. 57 Cardinals. With a win, Indiana would likely advance to face Gonzaga, which moved up to No. 3 in the latest AP Top 25 poll and is ranked No. 4 by Torvik.
That’s when the big challenge could come, one that Indiana vitally needs to meet as it builds an NCAA Tournament resume. Its best win so far is South Carolina, currently a bubble team at best. The Hoosiers may end up with wins against mid-major teams that reach the NCAA Tournament, but none that they can hang their hats on come Selection Sunday.
And once they return to Bloomington, they won’t get another chance to pick up a quality win until Big Ten play. That’s part of the risk that came with Indiana scheduling lighter than normal in the nonconference and relying so much on what it can gain in the Bahamas.
The other factor is that beyond Louisville, Indiana doesn’t know exactly who it’ll play this week. Upsets happen in college basketball all the time, and Indiana could end up facing a lighter slate this week by no fault of its own. Or it could lose to a capable Louisville team Wednesday and head to the loser’s bracket, where wins over certain opponents may not significantly strengthen its profile.
This Indiana team has enough talent that reaching the NCAA Tournament shouldn’t be in question, but its schedule lacks frequent opportunities at resume-boosting wins.
The other question going into the Battle 4 Atlantis is, how much do we really know about the Hoosiers so far? In terms of its Big Ten and national title aspirations, almost nothing. We can speculate how Indiana might fare against premier programs, but this tournament in the Bahamas represents the first time we’ll actually see it.
Indiana’s 4-0 start has mostly provided optimism, as the Hoosiers have defeated each team by 11 points or more. But there have been several moments of concern, or ones that at least reveal a team with six transfers and one freshman still getting to know each other. That was expected going into the season, but Indiana can’t afford it to last much longer.
The clear difference between the 2024-25 Hoosiers and last year’s group that missed the NCAA Tournament is guard play. Point guard Myles Rice is averaging 14.8 points and shooting 46.2% from 3-point range so far, a dynamic Indiana simply didn’t have last season. Sophomore wing Mackenzie Mgbako appears to have taken another step in his game, leading Indiana with 18.8 points per game and connecting on 8-of-15 3-point attempts.
Woodson also has much more capable depth to work with, with veterans like Trey Galloway and Luke Goode, along with budding freshman Bryson Tucker, coming off the bench. That’s all said without mentioning Malik Reneau and Oumar Ballo, who could comprise the Big Ten’s best front court.
So where does the hesitation come from? Woodson has been unhappy with several aspects of the Hoosiers’ play this season. After a 90-55 win over Eastern Illinois, which featured a 37-36 halftime deficit, Woodson called out his team’s readiness.
“I thought we were still home in bed asleep,” Woodson said. “It was awful.”
Indiana jumped out to a 21-5 win over UNC Greensboro, only to be tied 40-40 with 15:57 left in the second half. Indiana shot just 41.7% from the field and 26.3% from 3-point range, allowed 13 offensive rebounds and committed 13 turnovers in the win. That left a lot to be desired from Woodson, and some of the frustration stems from knowing how much talent he has on this team.
“As a team we had 16 assists. That’s awful. I mean, it’s awful. With this team, we should average between 20 and 30 assists. So the play tonight, the way we played offensively tonight was selfish as hell to me,” Woodson said.
“That’s something that just can’t be because we have enough guys on this team that can make basketball plays,” Woodson continued. “We’ve just got to be unselfish and sacrifice the ball for the sake of the team and good things will happen.”
Woodson and the Hoosiers have a chance to ease those concerns and pick up several quality wins. Good, bad or somewhere in between, this week will reveal a lot about this Indiana team, which needs to return to Bloomington with something to show for this trip.
Indiana is coming off its first loss of the season and welcomes Purdue to town for Senior Day.
The Indiana Hoosiers are 10-1 with its first loss of the season coming at Ohio State (38-15). Indiana dropped to No. 10 in the AP Poll and will likely be on the backend of the teams in for the latest College Football Playoff rankings, but a convincing win here would help. Indiana has been one of the best against-the-spread (ATS) teams in the country and as a -29 point home favorite, all signs point to Curt Cignetti and company rolling.
Not much has gone right for the 1-10 Purdue Boilermakers. After the 49-0 win over FCS Indiana State, Purdue has lost 10 straight games with seven out of 10 losses coming by 17 or more points. Purdue lost to Michigan State 24-17 last week and has two OT losses this year, but this road game seems out of reach for the Boilermakers.
NBC Sports has all the latest info and analysis you need, including how to tune in for kickoff, odds from BetMGM, player news and updates, and of course our predictions and best bets for the game from our staff of experts.
Listen to the B1G Talk podcast with Todd Blackledge and Noah Eagle for the most compelling storylines across all ofcollege football, with the biggest teams on the rise and the latest rankings!
Game Details and How to watch Purdue @ Indiana
- Date: Saturday, November 30, 2024
- Time: 7:00 PM EST
- Site: Indiana University Memorial Stadium
- City: Bloomington, IN
- TV/Streaming: Fox Sports 1
Want to check out the other games on the College Football schedule this week? We’ve got you covered right here on NBC Sports with all the matchup, venue, game-time and TV/streaming info so you won’t miss any of the action!
Game odds for Purdue @ Indiana
The latest odds as of Tuesday afternoon:
o Moneyline: Indiana (-6500), Purdue (+2000)
o Spread: Indiana -29 (-110)
o Total: 56.5 points
*odds courtesy of BetMGM
The spread opened at Indiana -25.5, so heavy money is pouring in on the Hoosiers. That is no surprise since Indiana is on the cusp of a College Football Playoff. The total has no movement.
NBC Sports Bet Best Bet
Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports) has the following best bets between Purdue and Indiana:
“The Indiana Hoosiers suffered the first loss of the season last week at Ohio State (38-15) and need to bounce back dominantly to secure a College Football Playoff berth.
Indiana’s First Half Team Total is 23.5, which might seem mighty lofty, but it’s certainly within range and so is a 50-point game for the Hoosiers. At home, Indiana has scored 17, 17, 14, 31, and 21 first-half points versus DI opponents this season for 20.0 first-half points per game.
Purdue’s defense hasn’t taken any steps forward this season. In the last seven games, the Boilermakers have allowed 24, 21, 21, 17, 21, 24, and 21 first-half points, so this number is nothing Indiana cannot do.”
BetMGM College Football Insights: National Championship
Line movement (Last Week to Now)
- Ohio State +320 to +275
- Georgia +500 to +400
- Texas +500 to +450
Highest Ticket%
- Ohio State 13.4%
- Texas 11.1%
- Georgia 10.5%
Highest Handle%
- Ohio State 15.9%
- Georgia 14.9%
- Alabama 12.1%
Biggest Liabilities
- Colorado
- Ohio State
- Alabama
College Football talk is taking over Bet the Edge every Thursday throughout the season. Bet the EDGE is your source for all things sports betting. Get all of Vaughn Dalzell, Eric Froton, and Brad Thomas’ insights Thursdays at 6AM ET right here or wherever you get your favorite podcasts.
Quarterback matchup for Boilermakers @ Hoosiers
- Purdue: Hudson Card threw for a season-high 342 passing yards against Michigan State last week on 26-of-47. Card has nine touchdowns to six interceptions on the year and 1,606 passing yards.
- Indiana: Kurtis Rourke has had a phenomenal season that has begun to be derailed slightly by injury. Rourke has 274 combined passing yards in the past two games and had zero touchdowns to zero interceptions last week. On the season, Rourke has 21 touchdowns to four interceptions for 2,478 passing yards and a 69.6 completion percentage.
Boilermakers @ Hoosiers player news & recent stats
- Purdue is 3-8 ATS this season, ranking tied for fifth-worst.
- Indiana is 8-3 ATS this season, ranking tied for seventh-best.
- Indiana is 8-3 to the Over this season, ranking third-best.
- Indiana is 5-2 ATS this year at home and 4-3 to the Over.
- Purdue is 2-3 ATS this season as the road team and 3-2 to the Over.
- Kurtis Rouke threw for zero touchdowns and zero interceptions last week.
- Hudson Card threw a season-high 342 passing yards last week.
Please bet responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call the National Gambling Helpline at 1-800-522-4700.
Follow our experts on socials to keep up with all the latest content from the staff:
- Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports)
- Brad Thomas (@MrBradThomas)
- Drew Dinsick (@whale_capper)
- Jay Croucher (@croucherJD)
- Eric Froton (@CFFroton)
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