BLOOMINGTON, Ind. – Indiana’s football rise into the national elite has been such a dizzying, intoxicating ride that it felt like it might never end.

Alas, No. 2 Ohio State dealt the Hoosiers a reality check with a dominant 38-15 victory Saturday at Ohio Stadium.

Most Indiana observers understood that a splash of water in the metaphorical face of Indiana football was likely when the College Football Playoff rankings came out.

Once revealed? It was a pretty cold splash that hit the Hoosiers late Tuesday night.

Indiana (10-1) fell to the No. 10 spot in the rankings. Six one-loss teams (Ohio State, Texas, Penn State, Notre Dame, Miami, SMU) and two two-loss teams (Georgia, Tennessee) are ahead of the Hoosiers. Indiana is rated the worst of the one-loss Power Four conference teams.

Because of the way the College Football Playoff bracket is constructed, Indiana is the last team in the 12-team field. Two teams ranked lower than Indiana would make the field as projected conference champions.

It’s a precarious position for Indiana as its margin for error has been exhausted. Still, there are plenty of happy and heartbreaking outcomes to consider as the college football season gets closer to its pre-Playoff climax.

Here’s a few scenarios to consider after the College Football Playoff committee set the latest pecking order Tuesday.

The best-case scenario

• If Indiana wants to go for the glory? Apart from the obvious win Indiana needs over Purdue, Hoosiers fans can hope for a Michigan win over Ohio State and a Maryland victory at Penn State. That would put Indiana into the Big Ten championship game against Oregon. A win in that game would give Indiana a bye into the College Football Playoff quarterfinals.

However, the risk in that is that if the Hoosiers were to lose, they could be out of the CFP field altogether depending on what happens elsewhere. High reward, but high risk, too.

For Indiana to get back into the playoff hosting picture? The Hoosiers probably need at least two of the following results: Georgia loses at home to Georgia Tech on Friday night, Tennessee loses at Vanderbilt, Miami loses at Syracuse, SMU loses to California at home or Notre Dame loses at Southern California on Saturday.

After the upsets that took place in Week 13? Stranger things have happened.

The most realistic good scenario

• If your best-case scenario is to beat Purdue, but lose the risk of incurring a second loss by missing the Big Ten championship game? It’s as simple as beating the Boilermakers on Saturday night. Given that Indiana are currently 28.5 point favorites, that is a solid probability.

However, Indiana is looking over its shoulder, too. No. 12-ranked Clemson lurks behind the Hoosiers and has a chance at a quality win when the Tigers host rival South Carolina Saturday. Though the Gamecocks are also lurking in the No. 15 spot, it would do Indiana a world of good to have South Carolina get Clemson off Indiana’s rear bumper.

The worst-case scenario

• This is simple: Indiana loses to Purdue. Barring a litany of upsets elsewhere, a loss to the Boilermakers would be a mortal blow to the Hoosiers’ CFP hopes.

Another worst-case scenario would be if Indiana beat Purdue, but Texas A&M beat Texas to make it to the SEC championship game and then pulled a major upset in that contest against Georgia.

That would put the Aggies in the CFP field as a bid-stealer and knock every other team down a notch. If Indiana was still on the bubble, this would cause it to burst.

The most realistic bad scenario

• Indiana beats Purdue, but not convincingly. A two-touchdown win or less is going to reflect poorly on the Hoosiers. Like it or not, style points matter.

If Indiana squeaked by the Boilermakers, in combination with a Clemson win over South Carolina and no upsets in front of them, it would be high time for Hoosiers fans to start to sweat.

Add in an Alabama win over Auburn and/or an Ole Miss victory over Mississippi State? The Hoosiers might survive it all, but the conference championship games and the reveal of final rankings on Dec. 8 would be a white-knuckle experience for Indiana.

The most ambiguous scenario

• Indiana beats Purdue, but once again, not convincingly. However, some of the teams ahead of Indiana also lose.

Any loss by either Georgia or Tennessee would be trouble for either team as it would be their third defeat. SMU has had a great season, but the Mustangs would take a hit if they lost at home to California. Similarly, Miami has just one loss, but the Hurricanes have won their share of close shootouts during the season.

Add in wins by Clemson, Alabama and Ole Miss? Perhaps toss in a Texas A&M victory over Texas that would put the potential bid-stealing Aggies in the SEC championship game? The CFP committee would have one heckuva Gordian knot to untangle going into the conference championship games.

A Top-5 showdown highlighted the Week 13 slate as Indiana and Ohio State squared off at The Horseshoe. Ultimately, the Buckeyes got a blowout victory over the Hoosiers, and all eyes turned toward Tuesday’s College Football Playoff rankings to see how the committee viewed that outcome.

Of course, Indiana wasn’t the only top-ranked team to fall last week. Multiple others did, as well, which likely helped the Hoosiers stay in the Top 10. According to committee chair Warde Manuel, IU has the resume to be the No. 10 team in the country.

Manuel pointed out it wasn’t all bad for Indiana in last week’s matchup. The Hoosiers had some good moments, notably the opening drive. Although they dropped five spots, Manuel said IU still did enough to be in the Top 10.

“We viewed Indiana – they played well at times against Ohio State,” Manuel said on the CFP rankings reveal show on ESPN. “And Ohio State pulled out a victory and really came on in the second half of that game. But we were impressed with some of the things that Indiana did. And they dropped five, but we still felt that their body of work was strong enough to remain in the Top 10.”

Indiana’s strength of schedule was a key point of conversation entering last week’s game. The Hoosiers’ schedule ranked No. 106 in the country through Week 12, according to ESPN, which was the second-weakest of the College Football Playoff Top 25. After the Ohio State game, though, IU’s schedule now ranks No. 51.

Of course, the numbers also back up Indiana’s case to be one of the top teams. The Hoosiers rank No. 9 in the nation in scoring defense and No. 2 in scoring offense. That’s why, after Saturday’s game, Curt Cignetti scoffed at a question about whether they should still be in the 12-team field before answering with a wink and smile.

“Is that a serious question?” Cignetti said in his postgame press conference, with a smirk. “I’m not even gonna answer that one. The answer’s so obvious.”

PARADISE ISLAND, The Bahamas – The slate of marquee nonconference games surrounding Thanksgiving has become known as Feast Week.

Tournaments in Maui, the Bahamas, Las Vegas and elsewhere generate top-25 matchups on a daily basis. Monday, Memphis upset back-to-back national champion No. 2 UConn. No. 4 Auburn erased a 16-point halftime deficit to take down No. 5 Iowa State. And No. 12 North Carolina came back from 21 points down to defeat Dayton.

That was just the start of a week that makes November feel a bit like March. No. 14 Indiana will compete in the eight-team Battle 4 Atlantis tournament in the Bahamas, along with No. 3 Gonzaga, No. 24 Arizona, West Virginia, Oklahoma, Providence and Davidson.

Indiana is off to a 4-0 start and rose two spots in the latest AP Top 25 poll. Three wins have come against mid-major foes Southern Illlinois-Edwardsville, Eastern Illinois and UNC Greensboro. Indiana also handled South Carolina in a 16-point win, but the Gamecocks have taken a step back from last year’s second-place SEC finish.

And with a nonconference slate that features just one high-major opponent outside its three opportunities in the Bahamas, the Hoosiers must eat up all the opportunities Feast Week offers. 

That starts with a matchup against Louisville, a team Indiana defeated 74-66 last year in the Empire Classic. But the new-look Cardinals are a completely different unit now, led by former College of Charleston head coach Pat Kelsey, 13 new transfers and one freshman. Louisville failed its biggest test of the season so far, a 77-55 home loss to Tennessee, but it’s shaping up to be a far more competitive team than those that went 12-52 in two years under former head coach Kenny Payne.

Analytics site Bart Torvik favors the Hoosiers by 3.6 points and ranks them 30th nationally, compared to the No. 57 Cardinals. With a win, Indiana would likely advance to face Gonzaga, which moved up to No. 3 in the latest AP Top 25 poll and is ranked No. 4 by Torvik.

That’s when the big challenge could come, one that Indiana vitally needs to meet as it builds an NCAA Tournament resume. Its best win so far is South Carolina, currently a bubble team at best. The Hoosiers may end up with wins against mid-major teams that reach the NCAA Tournament, but none that they can hang their hats on come Selection Sunday. 

And once they return to Bloomington, they won’t get another chance to pick up a quality win until Big Ten play. That’s part of the risk that came with Indiana scheduling lighter than normal in the nonconference and relying so much on what it can gain in the Bahamas.

The other factor is that beyond Louisville, Indiana doesn’t know exactly who it’ll play this week. Upsets happen in college basketball all the time, and Indiana could end up facing a lighter slate this week by no fault of its own. Or it could lose to a capable Louisville team Wednesday and head to the loser’s bracket, where wins over certain opponents may not significantly strengthen its profile. 

This Indiana team has enough talent that reaching the NCAA Tournament shouldn’t be in question, but its schedule lacks frequent opportunities at resume-boosting wins. 

The other question going into the Battle 4 Atlantis is, how much do we really know about the Hoosiers so far? In terms of its Big Ten and national title aspirations, almost nothing. We can speculate how Indiana might fare against premier programs, but this tournament in the Bahamas represents the first time we’ll actually see it.

Indiana’s 4-0 start has mostly provided optimism, as the Hoosiers have defeated each team by 11 points or more. But there have been several moments of concern, or ones that at least reveal a team with six transfers and one freshman still getting to know each other. That was expected going into the season, but Indiana can’t afford it to last much longer.

The clear difference between the 2024-25 Hoosiers and last year’s group that missed the NCAA Tournament is guard play. Point guard Myles Rice is averaging 14.8 points and shooting 46.2% from 3-point range so far, a dynamic Indiana simply didn’t have last season. Sophomore wing Mackenzie Mgbako appears to have taken another step in his game, leading Indiana with 18.8 points per game and connecting on 8-of-15 3-point attempts. 

Woodson also has much more capable depth to work with, with veterans like Trey Galloway and Luke Goode, along with budding freshman Bryson Tucker, coming off the bench. That’s all said without mentioning Malik Reneau and Oumar Ballo, who could comprise the Big Ten’s best front court.

So where does the hesitation come from? Woodson has been unhappy with several aspects of the Hoosiers’ play this season. After a 90-55 win over Eastern Illinois, which featured a 37-36 halftime deficit, Woodson called out his team’s readiness. 

“I thought we were still home in bed asleep,” Woodson said. “It was awful.”

Indiana jumped out to a 21-5 win over UNC Greensboro, only to be tied 40-40 with 15:57 left in the second half. Indiana shot just 41.7% from the field and 26.3% from 3-point range, allowed 13 offensive rebounds and committed 13 turnovers in the win. That left a lot to be desired from Woodson, and some of the frustration stems from knowing how much talent he has on this team.

“As a team we had 16 assists. That’s awful. I mean, it’s awful. With this team, we should average between 20 and 30 assists. So the play tonight, the way we played offensively tonight was selfish as hell to me,” Woodson said.

“That’s something that just can’t be because we have enough guys on this team that can make basketball plays,” Woodson continued. “We’ve just got to be unselfish and sacrifice the ball for the sake of the team and good things will happen.”

Woodson and the Hoosiers have a chance to ease those concerns and pick up several quality wins. Good, bad or somewhere in between, this week will reveal a lot about this Indiana team, which needs to return to Bloomington with something to show for this trip.