Indiana
Indiana vs. Washington football prediction: What the analytics say
On a historic run this season, No. 13 Indiana is back home this weekend against Big Ten rival Washington on Saturday. Let’s check in with the latest prediction for the game from an analytical model that picks winners.
Indiana is 7-0 for the second time ever and playing some of college football’s best offense, but is undergoing a sudden quarterback change after starter Kurtis Rourke injured his thumb last week, and while we won’t see him against the Huskies, he should return at some point this season.
Washington fell to 2-2 in Big Ten play after an ugly 40-16 loss against Iowa, but is averaging a little more than 3 touchdowns per game in conference and allowing just 17 points per game on average, good for 16th nationally in scoring defense.
Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.
The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.
As expected, the Hoosiers emerged as big favorites against the Huskies, despite the sudden change at quarterback.
Indiana is projected to win the game in the overwhelming 83.9 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.
That leaves Washington as the expected winner in the remaining 16.1 percent of sims.
In total, the Hoosiers came out ahead in 16,780 of the index’s simulations, while the Huskies edged out IU in the other 3,220 predictions.
The index projects that IU will be more than 2 touchdowns better than the Huskies.
Indiana is projected to be 14.8 points better than Washington on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.
If so, that would be more than enough for the Hoosiers to cover the spread in this game.
That’s because Indiana is a 6.5 point favorite against Washington, according to the updated lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.
FanDuel set the total at 53.5 points for the game (Over -105, Under -115).
And it lists the moneyline odds for Indiana at -250 and for Washington at +210 to win outright.
So far, a big majority of bettors expect the Hoosiers to dominate the Huskies at home.
Indiana is getting 76 percent of bets to beat Washington while covering the spread, winning by at least a touchdown.
The other 24 percent of wagers project the Huskies will either win the game outright in an upset or will keep the result under 7 points in a loss.
Indiana is fourth among Big Ten teams with a 64.1 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI’s metrics.
That model gives the Hoosiers a win total prediction of 10.9 games this season.
Washington will win 5.5 games this season, the fourth-lowest total in the Big Ten, according to the index’s calculations.
As such, the Huskies have a low 45.9 percent chance to become bowl eligible in 2024.
Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction models are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.
Rankings and score predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.
Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.
First-place votes in parentheses
- Oregon (59)
- Georgia (2)
- Penn State
- Ohio State
- Texas
- Miami
- Tennessee
- LSU
- Clemson
- Iowa State
- BYU
- Notre Dame
- Indiana
- Texas A&M
- Alabama
- Kansas State
- Boise State
- Ole Miss
- Pittsburgh
- Illinois
- Missouri
- SMU
- Army
- Navy
- Vanderbilt
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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Indiana
Man killed in northwest Indiana house fire
One person died in a house fire on Sunday morning in LaPorte County, Indiana, authorities said.
According to the LaPorte County Sheriff’s Office, at around 7:06 a.m., deputies responded to a structure fire in the 200 block of South Longshore Drive near Fish Lake. Deputies approached the house, where “excessive smoke prevented them from safely entering to search for any occupants inside.”
Once the fire had been extinguished, first responders entered the residence and found one person who had died. The resident was identified as 64-year-old Ronald Conrad.
The cause of the fire remained under investigation on Sunday.
Indiana
At the Buzzer: Indiana 77, Penn State 71
Quick thoughts on a 77-71 win against Penn State at the Palestra:
How it happened
It was a sharp start on both ends for Indiana on Sunday afternoon at the Palestra. The Hoosiers took care of the ball, hit the offensive boards and hit a couple of early perimeter shots to build an early 17-14 advantage. But as IU went to its bench, the offense waned, the turnovers increased and the Hoosiers managed just 12 points over the final 12:14 of the half. Fortunately, Penn State struggled, too. The Nittany Lions didn’t make a 3-pointer in the first half, shot just three free throws and didn’t make a field goal over the final 6:29 of the opening 20 minutes. With Malik Reneau unavailable due to injury, Oumar Ballo was the focal point of the Hosier offense and was sometimes unstoppable. Ballo had 14 points and nine rebounds in 16 first-half minutes.
Mackenzie Mgbako scored eight points in less than a minute to start the second half, forcing Penn State to take an early timeout with the Hoosiers leading 37-29. By the under-16 media timeout, Indiana’s lead was 44-33 after the Hoosiers made three 3-pointers before the timeout. After Penn State cut the lead to eight at 47-39, Indiana went on an 11-4 run to make it a 58-43 advantage with 11:34 remaining. The Hoosiers stretched the lead to 16 on a Trey Galloway 3-pointer with 10:20 left. But Penn State scored the next six points to pull within 10 at 61-51 at the 9:05 mark. Mgbako’s third 3-pointer of the second half stretched the lead to 11 with 7:39 remaining, but Oumar Ballo picked up his fourth foul on the next possession and had to go to the bench.
After Penn State cut the lead to four at 65-61 on a Nick Kern Jr. 3-pointer, Indiana brought Ballo back in and the big man converted a 3-point play to make it 68-61 with 5:25 remaining. By the final media timeout, Indiana’s lead was 69-63. Penn State had a chance to cut it to one possession with under 2:15 left, but Galloway got a key steal and took the team’s last timeout with the Hoosiers leading 73-68 with 2:04 to go. Out of the timeout, IU turned it over, Penn State hit a 3-pointer to make it 73-71 and Rice didn’t get the ball past halfcourt, giving Penn State the ball with 1:32 left. Zach Hicks missed a 3-pointer that would have given the Nittany Lions the lead and on the ensuing possession, Mgbako was fouled with 42.7 seconds left. Mgbako made both free throws to make it 75-71, Hicks missed a 3-pointer on Penn State’s next possession and Rice made two free throws to seal the win for Indiana.
Standout performers
Ballo led Indiana with 25 points, 13 rebounds and two blocked shots in 32 minutes. Mgbako finished with 20 points in 31 minutes. Luke Goode made three 3-pointers and finished with 12 points and seven rebounds in 25 minutes. And Rice had nine points, four assists, three rebounds and two steals in 31 minutes.
Statistics that stand out
Indiana went 9-for-23 on 3s (39.1 percent) and 16-for-22 from the free throw line (72.7 percent). The Hoosiers turned it over just 14 times. Penn State opponents were averaging 17 per game entering the contest.
Final IU individual statistics
Final tempo-free statistics
Assembly Call postgame show
(Photo credit: IU Athletics)
Filed to: Penn State Nittany Lions
Indiana
Point Spread: Indiana Big Underdog vs. Penn State in Philadelphia
PHILADELPHIA, Pa. — There have been a lot of ups and downs during Mike Woodson’s three-plus years as head coach at Indiana, but one of the most disturbing trends is the Hoosiers’ inability to beat Penn State.
Woodson lost five of six games to the Nittany Lions before finally beating them 61-59 in the first round of the Big Ten Tournament in Minneapolis, Minn. last season. And this is an average Penn State side that’s only made one NCAA Tournament (2023) during that run. Still, they have guards who pressure and make threes, and Indiana has struggled with rosters like that.
Oddsmakers are expecting more of the same on Sunday when the two teams hook up at The Palestra in Philadelphia for a Penn State alternate home game. According to the FanDuel.com gambling website, the 12-2 Nittany Lions are 6.5-point favorites over the Hoosiers (11-3). The over/under is 158.5.
The game starts at Noon ET and is televised on Big Ten Network. (How to watch story link below.) It’s the fifth time Penn State has played a Big Ten home game during the Christmas break at The Palestra, which was built in 1927 and is one of the most iconic building in the college game.
Indiana has been an underdog twice this season, and both ended badly, getting blown out late by both Gonzaga and Nebraska.
Here’s what we know so far about how Indiana and Penn State have fared against the point spread this season.
UPDATE … Rutgers is 12-2 on the season, and 2-1 in Big Ten games. They resumed league play on Thursday night with an 84-80 win over Northwestern in State College, Pa.
Penn State is just 6-8 against the spread this season. They’ve had an easy schedule, only playing two Power 5 teams in the nonconference schedule. They beat a 6-8 Virginia Tech team, but lost to Clemson., both from the ACC. Here’s what Penn State has done straight up and against the spread this season:
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