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How Much Vaccination Stops a Measles Outbreak?

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How Much Vaccination Stops a Measles Outbreak?

To stop the spread of an infectious disease like measles, you don’t have to vaccinate everyone. But you do have to vaccinate many.

Just how many? To let you discover for yourself, we simulated an outbreak of a hypothetical disease, about as contagious as the flu. (A lot less contagious than measles.)

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We’d like you to contain it. But first, some basics:

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Here’s a sick person in a population with no protection against the disease.

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That person infects some neighbors.

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Who, in turn, do the same.

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Soon, almost everyone has been infected.

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In a world where no one has immunity, infectious diseases spread exponentially. That’s what happened early in the Covid pandemic.

But for most infectious diseases, many people will already have some level of immunity — whether through a previous infection or through vaccination — and this can slow the spread.

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Now it’s your turn to try.

Level 1: Less Contagious

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How low can you set the vaccination rate to contain the outbreak?

This simulation uses randomness, so the results will turn out somewhat differently every time you play it. But there are patterns that you can discover: When the vaccination level is below around 40 percent, outbreaks are very likely. Above that level, they’re quickly extinguished.

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Chance of an outbreak growing out of control for a less contagious disease

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Based on a million simulations

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That sharp gradient from red to white shows us this “herd immunity” threshold, where vaccination can halt an outbreak and protect the unvaccinated. (Including those who can’t be vaccinated, such as infants and people with weakened immune systems.)

The difference is stark. A little below that threshold, outbreaks easily grow out of control. Above it, they are quickly squelched. This is why it’s so important to keep vaccination levels above the herd immunity threshold.

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Next, let’s see what happens with a disease that’s more contagious.

Level 2: More Contagious

How low can you set the vaccination rate to contain the outbreak?

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Because this disease is more contagious, it can more easily slip through the gaps of unvaccinated people.

That’s why the vaccination level needed for herd immunity rose from around 40 percent to around 60 percent in this example: It takes greater levels of vaccination to contain a more contagious infectious disease.

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Chance of an outbreak growing out of control for a less contagious disease

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… and for a more contagious disease

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Based on a million simulations

So far, all our simulations have assumed that vaccination is evenly distributed. In reality, that isn’t the case.

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Our final simulation tries to capture two neighboring communities. Think of them like two school districts in the same county. In one district, 75 percent of students are vaccinated. In the other, just 50 percent are.

That means the average vaccination rate for the county overall is 63 percent — right around the herd immunity threshold for our simulated disease. But see what happens.

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Unvaccinated pockets

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50% Vaccinated

75% Vaccinated

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For the most part, the 75 percent district is protected, while the 50 percent district is overrun, even though they sit right next to each other. Herd immunity operates at a local level, and the average vaccination rate for a broad region can mask smaller communities at risk.

On a few tries, you might have gotten lucky and seen the outbreak fizzle out. This, too, mimics reality. But luck is not an effective public health strategy.

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The simulated world you saw above mirrors a real-world problem: There are increasingly many parts of the U.S. where skepticism of vaccines has gained momentum and childhood vaccination rates have fallen.

And measles is far more contagious than the disease we simulated — because of space constraints, we could not even simulate it in this form. It’s so contagious that a vaccination rate of 50 percent or even 75 percent won’t contain an outbreak.

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How contagious is measles?

Epidemiologists estimate the contagiousness of an infectious disease with a “basic reproductive number,” or R0 — how many people a sick person infects, in a community with no protection.

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A disease can grow out of control if an infected person infects more than one other person, on average. A person with the flu can infect one to two others — an R0 between 1 and 2.

But a person with measles can infect 10 times as many:

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Disease Contagiousness (Est. R0)
Measles
Whooping cough
Covid (Omicron)
Chickenpox
Polio
Covid (Delta)
Flu (1918)
Seasonal flu

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For measles, a 1982 study put its R0 between 12 and 18. A more recent review of studies found a very wide spread, with a median of around 15 in the Americas.

That means measles is one of the most contagious diseases known. And there’s a direct relationship between contagiousness and the level of protection needed for herd immunity.

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Population protection needed for herd immunity

Reaching herd immunity means each infected person can infect only one other person or fewer, on average. That means, at the high end of the measles range, you’d need to prevent 17 of 18 infections, or over 94 percent. That’s why health officials set a goal of vaccinating 95 percent of people against measles.

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(The measles vaccine, unlike vaccines for some other infectious diseases, is very effective and its protection lasts decades; measles also is extremely unlikely to develop mutations that allow it to evade the vaccine.)

The average vaccination rate for kindergartners in the U.S. has fallen below that threshold since the pandemic. Most kindergarteners now live in states where the vaccination rates are below herd immunity.

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Number of states with kindergarten measles vaccination rates below 95 percent

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Data is not available for every state in every year. Includes the District of Columbia. Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

Many kindergartners live in counties and go to schools where the rates have fallen even further, below 80 percent or even below half — making it possible for measles to spread like wildfire.

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Viral ‘potato bed’ sleep trend has people cozying up for their best night’s rest

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Viral ‘potato bed’ sleep trend has people cozying up for their best night’s rest

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Tucking yourself in like a smothered baked potato is the newest way to get a great night’s sleep.

A TikTok trend called the “potato bed” has gone viral as a comfy way of rearranging sheets and pillows to be surrounded and snuggled.

The first step is to lay out a fitted bedsheet upside down and stuff the perimeter with thick pillows and blankets.

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Once there’s a solid foundation of fluffy walls, the middle of the nest gets filled with blankets, comforters and any other objects to get cozy. 

A laptop playing a movie or a good book is recommended.

TikTok creators have been attempting the trend themselves. One user named Alice (@alicekateea) wrote in the caption of her video that she “had the best night’s sleep ever.”

TikTok creator @rubyyy.eg shares a tutorial on making a potato bed. (TikTok @rubyyy.eg)

“So just an adult-sized baby nest?” one user commented. “No wonder you slept good!”

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Another user wrote, “I’m already a couch potato, now I’m going to be a bed potato too.”

In an interview with Fox News Digital, Dr. William Lu, medical director of Dreem Health, commented that the potato bed is a “fun, cozy take” on the concept of “cocooning” or creating a nest-like sleep environment.

“It’s really about recreating that snug, safe feeling we associate with deep rest.”

“I’m not surprised it’s catching on,” said the California-based expert. “People are craving comfort, calm and security right now, and the potato bed taps right into that. While it looks playful, it’s really about recreating that snug, safe feeling we associate with deep rest.”

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The sensation of being “gently surrounded by pillows and blankets” can mimic the effects of a weighted blanket or being cuddled, according to the sleep expert.

“That light, even pressure can help lower stress hormones like cortisol while boosting serotonin and oxytocin, chemicals that make you feel relaxed and sleepy,” said Lu.

“When your body feels secure and your mind feels safe, it’s easier to drift off and stay asleep.”

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Lu did caution that too much warmth may cause disruption to sleep, since the best sleep occurs when the core body temperature drops slightly. Piling on too many layers can “trap heat,” making it harder for the body to cool down, he noted.

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“Also, if you’re surrounding yourself with soft pillows, you might lose proper spinal alignment,” Lu added. “Over time, that can lead to neck or back pain. If you wake up feeling sore or sweaty, that’s your sign to scale it back.”

Using too many heavy and hot blankets can lead to fragmented sleep, an expert cautioned. (iStock)

Lu recommended thinking of the potato bed as a “cozy relaxation ritual” rather than a permanent sleep setup.

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Building a potato bed for a short nap, a wind-down before bed or a warm respite during the colder months are the best options, he said.

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The sleep expert also suggested keeping one lightweight duvet and fewer layers to ensure that the mattress and primary pillow are still providing plenty of support.

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“The goal isn’t to bury yourself in fluff — it’s to create a comfortable, calming space that helps your body and mind relax before sleep,” he said.

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How One Woman Lost Half Her Body Fat In 60 Days With One Simple Water Trick

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How One Woman Lost Half Her Body Fat In 60 Days With One Simple Water Trick


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Not all fiber is created equal — doctors share which kinds truly support longevity

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Not all fiber is created equal — doctors share which kinds truly support longevity

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Fiber is known to be a crucial part of a healthy diet, promoting fullness and gut health.

As trends like “fibermaxxing” make high-fiber eating more popular, understanding the best sources is increasingly important for individual health, according to nutritionists.

Longevity expert Peter Attia, a Stanford University physician based in Austin, Texas, spoke about how fiber aligns with a healthier lifestyle in a sneak peek of his newest “Ask Me Anything” episode of “The Peter Attia Drive” podcast.

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People who engage in a beneficial habit, such as eating a high-fiber diet, tend to do “many other healthy things,” according to the doctor.

“They might be exercising more, they’re much less likely to smoke, they’re probably getting more sleep,” he said. “You are very likely to be capturing other healthy habits when you’re trying to simply measure one thing.”

As trends like “fibermaxxing” make high-fiber eating more popular, understanding the best sources of fiber is increasingly important for individual health, according to nutritionists. (iStock)

For this reason, it can be difficult to “disentangle” fiber’s specific effects, Attia said, since people who eat more fiber also tend to consume other beneficial plant nutrients and make generally healthier lifestyle choices.

Different types of fiber

Different types of fiber are known to function differently in the body, according to Attia.

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“There are lots of things that are classified as fiber, [and] a wide range of physical properties that a particular fiber might have, but these different properties produce different effects on the body,” he said.

“Some fibers provide primarily microbiome support because they’re actually fermented by gut microbiomes. Some fibers can improve blood sugar … and others simply bulk up stool.”

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Soluble fiber dissolves in water, while insoluble fiber does not — and each type plays a different role in digestion.

Insoluble fiber includes vegetables, the skin of fruits, whole grains and bran, according to Attia. It will remain “largely intact” as it moves through the digestive system, adding stool bulk, reducing constipation and supporting regular bowel movements.

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Insoluble fibers are not fermented by gut bacteria, but they stimulate the gut lining to release water and mucus, which “dilutes toxins in the colon” and speeds up “intestinal transit,” the doctor said.

Vegetables typically contain more fiber than other options, according to the doctor. (iStock)

Most soluble, or viscous, fiber can absorb water and create a gel in the gut, which can lead to slower gastric emptying, reduce blood sugar spikes and potentially lower cholesterol levels, according to Attia.

Some examples of soluble fiber include pectin (found in fruits), beta-glucan (found in whole oats) and psyllium husk, which is a plant most often consumed as a supplement.

POPULAR ‘FIBERMAXXING’DIET TREND NOT RIGHT FOR EVERYONE, SAYS NUTRITIONIST

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Some soluble fibers belong to a subgroup called fermentable, or prebiotic, fibers. These fibers are broken down by gut bacteria to produce short-chain fatty acids (SCFAs) — compounds such as butyrate that help support gut health, regulate pH, improve metabolism and reduce inflammation, according to various studies.

“My mantra is ‘baby steps’ whenever I introduce fiber … a little at a time goes a long way.”

Fermentable fibers are found in foods like beans, pectin and inulin, as well as in prebiotic sources such as onions, garlic, asparagus and chicory root. They’re also present in certain resistant starches, including green bananas, legumes, and cooked, starchy foods like potatoes, rice and pasta.

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Resistant starches, while fermentable, are not soluble, Attia noted. They are categorized into several types:

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  • RS1: Found in whole grains, seeds and legumes
  • RS2: Found in raw potato starch, unripe bananas and maize (corn) starch (commonly used in fiber supplements)

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In most diets, a mix of fiber types is consumed. Plant-based foods — especially those with skins, along with oats, beans and legumes — tend to be the richest sources, Attia shared.

Beans don’t contain any single comitant fiber, but are high in fiber overall, said Attia.  (iStock)

Benefits of high-fiber diets

Some key benefits of a high-fiber diet include satiety and weight management, glycemic control, cardiovascular health and colorectal cancer prevention, Attia said. 

Robin DeCicco, a certified holistic nutritionist in New York, shared with Fox News Digital in a previous interview that increasing fiber intake can be “quite beneficial.”

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“Everything from gastrointestinal health to cardiovascular health, weight management, prevention of diabetes and certain cancers, to feeling fuller throughout the day and minimizing cravings for sugars and starches, are all major benefits of fiber intake,” she said.

“Not all fibers do the same things, and they don’t all do them equally well,” the doctor said. (iStock)

As health is individualized, DeCicco warned that those with pre-existing gastrointestinal conditions could experience complications by introducing too much fiber at once.

“If your system is not used to fiber, and you start to overload, you can easily become bloated, get cramps and have constipation,” she said.

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It’s “easier on the stomach” to spread it out, since fiber can bulk up in the stomach and cause a back-up, according to DeCicco.

“This is why it’s especially important to incorporate fiber slowly,” she said. “My mantra is ‘baby steps’ whenever I introduce fiber to any client. A little at a time goes a long way toward long-term health.”

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