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How Much Vaccination Stops a Measles Outbreak?

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How Much Vaccination Stops a Measles Outbreak?

To stop the spread of an infectious disease like measles, you don’t have to vaccinate everyone. But you do have to vaccinate many.

Just how many? To let you discover for yourself, we simulated an outbreak of a hypothetical disease, about as contagious as the flu. (A lot less contagious than measles.)

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We’d like you to contain it. But first, some basics:

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Here’s a sick person in a population with no protection against the disease.

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That person infects some neighbors.

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Who, in turn, do the same.

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Soon, almost everyone has been infected.

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In a world where no one has immunity, infectious diseases spread exponentially. That’s what happened early in the Covid pandemic.

But for most infectious diseases, many people will already have some level of immunity — whether through a previous infection or through vaccination — and this can slow the spread.

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Now it’s your turn to try.

Level 1: Less Contagious

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How low can you set the vaccination rate to contain the outbreak?

This simulation uses randomness, so the results will turn out somewhat differently every time you play it. But there are patterns that you can discover: When the vaccination level is below around 40 percent, outbreaks are very likely. Above that level, they’re quickly extinguished.

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Chance of an outbreak growing out of control for a less contagious disease

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Based on a million simulations

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That sharp gradient from red to white shows us this “herd immunity” threshold, where vaccination can halt an outbreak and protect the unvaccinated. (Including those who can’t be vaccinated, such as infants and people with weakened immune systems.)

The difference is stark. A little below that threshold, outbreaks easily grow out of control. Above it, they are quickly squelched. This is why it’s so important to keep vaccination levels above the herd immunity threshold.

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Next, let’s see what happens with a disease that’s more contagious.

Level 2: More Contagious

How low can you set the vaccination rate to contain the outbreak?

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Because this disease is more contagious, it can more easily slip through the gaps of unvaccinated people.

That’s why the vaccination level needed for herd immunity rose from around 40 percent to around 60 percent in this example: It takes greater levels of vaccination to contain a more contagious infectious disease.

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Chance of an outbreak growing out of control for a less contagious disease

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… and for a more contagious disease

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Based on a million simulations

So far, all our simulations have assumed that vaccination is evenly distributed. In reality, that isn’t the case.

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Our final simulation tries to capture two neighboring communities. Think of them like two school districts in the same county. In one district, 75 percent of students are vaccinated. In the other, just 50 percent are.

That means the average vaccination rate for the county overall is 63 percent — right around the herd immunity threshold for our simulated disease. But see what happens.

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Unvaccinated pockets

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50% Vaccinated

75% Vaccinated

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For the most part, the 75 percent district is protected, while the 50 percent district is overrun, even though they sit right next to each other. Herd immunity operates at a local level, and the average vaccination rate for a broad region can mask smaller communities at risk.

On a few tries, you might have gotten lucky and seen the outbreak fizzle out. This, too, mimics reality. But luck is not an effective public health strategy.

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The simulated world you saw above mirrors a real-world problem: There are increasingly many parts of the U.S. where skepticism of vaccines has gained momentum and childhood vaccination rates have fallen.

And measles is far more contagious than the disease we simulated — because of space constraints, we could not even simulate it in this form. It’s so contagious that a vaccination rate of 50 percent or even 75 percent won’t contain an outbreak.

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How contagious is measles?

Epidemiologists estimate the contagiousness of an infectious disease with a “basic reproductive number,” or R0 — how many people a sick person infects, in a community with no protection.

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A disease can grow out of control if an infected person infects more than one other person, on average. A person with the flu can infect one to two others — an R0 between 1 and 2.

But a person with measles can infect 10 times as many:

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Disease Contagiousness (Est. R0)
Measles
Whooping cough
Covid (Omicron)
Chickenpox
Polio
Covid (Delta)
Flu (1918)
Seasonal flu

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For measles, a 1982 study put its R0 between 12 and 18. A more recent review of studies found a very wide spread, with a median of around 15 in the Americas.

That means measles is one of the most contagious diseases known. And there’s a direct relationship between contagiousness and the level of protection needed for herd immunity.

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Population protection needed for herd immunity

Reaching herd immunity means each infected person can infect only one other person or fewer, on average. That means, at the high end of the measles range, you’d need to prevent 17 of 18 infections, or over 94 percent. That’s why health officials set a goal of vaccinating 95 percent of people against measles.

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(The measles vaccine, unlike vaccines for some other infectious diseases, is very effective and its protection lasts decades; measles also is extremely unlikely to develop mutations that allow it to evade the vaccine.)

The average vaccination rate for kindergartners in the U.S. has fallen below that threshold since the pandemic. Most kindergarteners now live in states where the vaccination rates are below herd immunity.

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Number of states with kindergarten measles vaccination rates below 95 percent

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Data is not available for every state in every year. Includes the District of Columbia. Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

Many kindergartners live in counties and go to schools where the rates have fallen even further, below 80 percent or even below half — making it possible for measles to spread like wildfire.

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Seniors taking multiple medications may face unexpected health effects

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Seniors taking multiple medications may face unexpected health effects

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Older adults discharged from hospitals on multiple medications are less likely to regain independence during rehabilitation, a new study suggests.

The Japanese study, published in the journal BMC Geriatrics Dec. 17, explored the effects of polypharmacy — defined as taking six or more regular medications on a regular basis — at a convalescent rehabilitation hospital in Japan.

The retrospective observational study looked at 1,903 patients 65 and older who underwent rehabilitation at the hospital from April 2017 to March 2024, according to a press release.

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The patients had one of three conditions: cerebrovascular disease (a disorder of the brain’s blood vessels that reduce or block blood flow), motor disorder (a condition that affects movement and muscle control) or disuse syndrome (inactivity leading to muscle weakness and physical decline).

Of the total group, 62.1% of the patients were taking six or more medications when they were discharged from the hospital, and more than 76% of them were 80 or older. 

Older adults discharged from the hospital on multiple medications are less likely to regain independence during rehabilitation, a new study suggests. (iStock)

Those taking multiple medications were also more likely to be taking benzodiazepine receptor agonists (taken for anxiety or insomnia), laxatives and psychotropic medications (mainly used for depression, anxiety, psychosis and other mood disorders). 

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The researchers determined that those with polypharmacy who had cerebrovascular disease and disuse syndrome scored significantly lower in the functional independence measure (FIM), which assesses how independently a person can perform everyday activities, especially after illness, injury or hospitalization. Those in the motor disorder group didn’t show any link between polypharmacy and FIM.

The negative effects were stronger among adults over 80 and those recovering from stroke-related conditions or general weakness due to inactivity.

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Based on these findings, the researchers suggest that reviewing and reducing unnecessary medications could help improve recovery for those undergoing rehabilitation.

Dr. Marc Siegel, Fox News senior medical analyst, refers to polypharmacy with seniors as a “risky proposition.”

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The retrospective observational study looked at 1,903 patients 65 and older who underwent rehabilitation at a hospital from April 2017 to March 2024. (iStock)

“Even though each medication may have a purpose, often important, we must keep in mind that the ability to tolerate various medications and metabolize them efficiently diminishes as you get older,” he told Fox News Digital.

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“For example, a med that sedates you or even has the potential to disorient you may be more likely to do so as you become elderly.”

Drug interactions also tend to increase as patients grow older, Siegel added. 

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“This must all be monitored carefully by your physician, and, sometimes, less is more,” he said.

Based on these findings, the researchers suggest that reviewing and reducing unnecessary medications could help improve recovery for those undergoing rehabilitation. (iStock)

The study did have some limitations, the researchers acknowledged. Due to its retrospective and observational design, it does not prove that the medications caused the outcome.

The researchers also lacked data on specific doses of the medications and the intensity of the rehabilitation, they noted. Also, the study was conducted at just a single hospital, so the results may not apply to more general populations.

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Future research is needed to determine which specific medications most affect recovery and to explore the best approaches for reducing prescriptions.

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I Lost 215 Lbs and Transformed My Health Without GLP-1s and Only Mindset Shifts—Here Are My Biggest Tips

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I Lost 215 Lbs and Transformed My Health Without GLP-1s and Only Mindset Shifts—Here Are My Biggest Tips


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4 anti-aging approaches revealed in 2025 that may help Americans live longer

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4 anti-aging approaches revealed in 2025 that may help Americans live longer

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On average, Americans want to live to be 91 years old, according to a recent Pew Research survey — a goal that has driven a focus on longevity-boosting practices.

Over 60% of U.S. adults use supplements and most prioritize long-term health and wellness behaviors as part of an anti-aging approach, research has shown.

In 2025, researchers revealed the following anti-aging discoveries that may help you live a longer life.

COMMON DAILY VITAMIN SHOWN TO SLOW AGING PROCESS OVER 4-YEAR PERIOD

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1. Vitamin D could slow the aging process

A study by researchers at Mass General Brigham and the Medical College of Georgia discovered that taking vitamin D supplements may protect against biological aging.

Research published in The American Journal of Clinical Nutrition in May 2025 found that supplementing with daily vitamin D3 can reduce biological wear and tear equivalent to nearly three years of aging.

Vitamin D3 supplementation can reduce biological wear and tear equivalent to nearly three years of aging, research has shown. (iStock)

Three months later, researchers at Harvard confirmed this correlation with their own study published in the same journal.

Daily vitamin D3 supplementation was found to prevent the shortening of telomeres, the protective ends on chromosome strands, which is a hallmark of aging.

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2. Meditation practices may boost longevity

An April 2025 study by Maharishi International University (MIU), the University of Siegen, and the Uniformed Services University of the Health Sciences found that transcendental meditation can significantly alleviate stress and slow down aging.

The long-term meditation practice involves silently repeating a mantra in your head to achieve deep relaxation.

WEIGHT LOSS DRUGS COULD ADD YEARS TO AMERICANS’ LIVES, RESEARCHERS PROJECT

The study, published in the journal Biomolecules, found that participants who practiced transcendental meditation had lower expression of the genes associated with inflammation and aging.

“These results support other studies indicating that the transcendental meditation technique can reverse or remove long-lasting effects of stress,” co-author Kenneth Walton, a senior researcher at MIU, previously told Fox News Digital. “Lasting effects of stress are now recognized as causing or contributing to all diseases and disorders.”

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Those who practiced transcendental mediation had a lower expression of genes associated with aging. (iStock)

3. GLP-1s are linked to reduction in mortality

A September 2025 study discovered that GLP-1 drugs, which are designed for diabetes and weight loss, could significantly reduce mortality for Americans.

Researchers at Swiss Re, a reinsurance company in Zurich, Switzerland, estimated that GLP-1 drugs could lead to a 6.4% reduction in all-cause mortality in the U.S. by 2045. In the U.K., more than a 5% reduction in mortality was projected over the same 20 years.

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Obesity is one factor that has “stalled progress in life expectancy,” as it is linked to 70% of the leading causes of death in high-income countries, according to the researchers.

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4. Creativity and socialization could extend lifespan

In October 2025, various research investigated the impact of social engagement on longevity.

A study published in the journal Brain, Behavior and Immunity found that social relationships can slow cellular aging.

A September 2025 study discovered that GLP-1 drugs could significantly reduce mortality for Americans. (iStock)

Researchers at Cornell University explored the long-term benefits of social connections on biological aging.

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“We found that strong social ties can literally slow down the biological aging process,” lead study author Anthony Ong previously said in an interview with Fox News Digital. “Strong social ties appear to work in the background over many years, building a more resilient body by reducing the chronic, low-grade inflammation that is a key driver of accelerated aging.”

Social connection is a major player in extending longevity, research has shown. (iStock)

A similar study was published the same month, revealing that creative activities such as music, dance, painting and even certain video games may help keep the brain biologically younger.

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Researchers from 13 countries — including teams at Trinity College Dublin in Ireland and SWPS University in Poland — analyzed brain data from more than 1,400 adults of all ages worldwide. Those who regularly pursued creative hobbies had brain patterns that appeared younger than their actual age.

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Even short bursts of creative activity, such as a few weeks of strategy-based video gaming, had noticeable benefits.

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Fox News Digital’s Deirdre Bardolf and Melissa Rudy contributed reporting.

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