Business
McDonald’s is losing its low-income customers. Economists call it a symptom of the stark wealth divide
In the early 2000s, after a severe slump, McDonald’s orchestrated a major turnaround, with the introduction of its Dollar Menu.
The menu, where all items cost $1, illustrated just how important it was to market to low-income consumers — who value getting the most bang for their buck.
Coming at a time of flagging growth, tumbling stock and the company’s first report of a quarterly loss, the Dollar Menu reversed the fast food giant’s bad fortune. It paved the way for three years of sales growth at stores open at least a year and ballooned revenue by 33%, news outlets reported at the time.
But no longer.
Prices have risen so high at the iconic fast food chain that traffic from one of its core customer bases, low-income households, has dropped by double digits, McDonald’s chief executive Christopher Kempczinski told investors last week. Meanwhile, traffic from higher-earners increased by nearly as much, he said.
The struggle of the Golden Arches — long synonymous with cheap food for the masses — reflects a larger trend upending the consumer economy and making “affordability” a hot policy topic.
McDonald’s executives say the higher costs of restaurant essentials, such as beef and salaries, have pushed food prices up and driven away lower-income customers who are already being squeezed by the rising cost of groceries, clothes, rent and child care.
With prices for everything rising, consumer companies concerned about the pressures on low-income Americans include food, automotive and airline businesses, among others, said analyst Adam Josephson. “The list goes on and on,” he said.
“Happy Meals at McDonald’s are prohibitively expensive for some people, because there’s been so much inflation,” Josephson said.
Josephson and other economists say the shrinking traffic of low-income consumers is emblematic of a larger trend of Americans diverging in their spending, with wealthier customers flexing their purchasing power and lower-income shoppers pulling back — what some call a “K-shaped economy.”
A recent earnings report from Delta offers yet another illustration. While Delta’s main cabin revenue fell 5% for the June quarter compared to a year ago, premium ticket sales rose 5%, highlighting the divide between affluent customers and those forced to be more economical.
At hotel chains, luxury brands are holding up better than low budget options. Revenue at brands including Four Seasons, Ritz-Carlton and St. Regis is up 2.9% so far this year, while economy hotels saw a 3.1% decline for the same period, according to industry tracker CoStar.
“There are examples everywhere you look,” Josephson said.
Consumer credit delinquency rates show just how much low-income households are hurting, with households that make less than $45,000 annually seeing “huge year-over-year increases,” even as delinquency rates for high- and middle-income households have flattened and stabilized, said Rikard Bandebo, chief strategy officer and chief economist at VantageScore.
After COVID-19-related stimulus programs ended, these households were the first to see dramatically increased delinquency rates, and haven’t seen a dip in delinquencies since 2022, according to data from VantageScore on 60-day past-due delinquencies from January 2020 to September 2025. And although inflation has come down from its peak in 2022, people are still struggling with relatively higher prices and “astronomical” rent increases, Bandebo said.
A report released this year by researchers with Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard University found that half of all renters, 22.6 million people, were cost-burdened in 2023, meaning they spent more than 30% of their income on housing and utilities, up 3.2 percentage points since 2019 and 9 percentage points since 2001. Twenty-seven percent of renters are severely burdened, spending more than 50% of their income on housing.
As rents have grown, the amount families have left over after paying for housing and utilities has fallen to record lows. In 2023, renters with annual household incomes under $30,000 had a median of just $250 per month in residual income to spend on other needs, an amount that’s fallen 55% since 2001, with the steepest declines since the pandemic, according to the Harvard study.
“It’s getting tougher and tougher every month for low-income households to make ends meet,” Bandebo said.
Prices at limited-service restaurants, which include fast-food restaurants, are up 3.2% year over year, at a rate higher than inflation “and that’s climbing” said Marisa DiNatale, an economist at Moody’s Analytics.
On top of that, price increases due to tariffs disproportionately affect lower-income households, because they spend a greater portion of their income on goods rather than services, which are not directly impacted by tariffs. Wages too, are stagnating more for these households compared to higher- and middle-income households, DiNatale said.
“It has always been the case that more well-off people have done better. But a lot of the economic and policy headwinds are disproportionately affecting lower-income households, and [McDonald’s losing low-income customers] is a reflection of that,” DiNatale said.
It makes sense, then, that any price increases would hit these consumers hard.
According to a corporate fact sheet, from 2019 to 2024, the average cost of a McDonald’s menu item rose 40%. The average price of a Big Mac in 2019, for example, was $4.39, rising in 2024 to $5.29, according to the company. A 10-piece McNuggets Meal rose from $7.19 to $9.19 in the same time period.
The company says these increases are in line with the costs of running a restaurant — including soaring labor costs and high prices of beef and other goods.
Beef prices have skyrocketed, with inventory of the U.S. cattle herd at the lowest in 75 years due to the toll of drought and parasites. And exports of beef bound to the U.S. are down because of Trump’s trade war and tariffs. As a result, the prices of ground beef sold in supermarkets is up 13% in September, year over year.
McDonald’s has also placed blame on the meat-packing industry, accusing it of maneuvering to artificially inflate prices in a lawsuit filed last year against the industry’s “Big Four” companies — Tyson, JBS, Cargill and the National Beef Packing Company.
The companies have denied wrongdoing, and paid tens of millions of dollars to settle multiple lawsuits alleging price-fixing.
However, McDonald’s chief financial officer Ian Borden said on the recent earnings call that the company has managed to keep expenses from getting out of control.
“I think the strength of our supply chain means our beef costs are, I think, certainly up less than most,” he said.
McDonald’s did not disclose how the company gauges the income levels of their customers but businesses often analyze the market area they serve by estimating the background of their customers based on where they are shopping and what they are buying.
In California, the debate around fast food prices has centered on labor costs, with legislation going into effect last year raising the minimum wage for fast-food workers at chains with more than 60 locations nationwide.
But more than a year after fast-food wages were boosted, the impact is still being debated, with economists divided and the fast-food industry and unions sparring over its impact.
Fast-food restaurant owners as well as trade associations like the International Franchise Assn., which spearheaded an effort to block the minimum wage boost, have said businesses have been forced to trim employee hours, institute hiring freezes or lay people off to offset the cost of higher wages.
Meanwhile, an analysis by researchers at UC Berkeley’s Center on Wage and Employment Dynamics of some 2,000 restaurants found the $20 wage did not reduce fast-food employment, and “led to minimal menu price increases” of about 8 cents on a $4 burger.”
Labor groups have also argued that minimum wage increases give workers more purchasing power, helping to stimulate the economy.
McDonald’s said last year that spending by the company on restaurant worker salaries had grown around 40% since 2019, while costs for food, paper and other goods were up 35%.
The success of its Dollar Menu in the early 2000s was remarkable because it had come amid complaints of the chain’s highly processed, high-calorie and high-fat products, food safety concerns and worker exploitation.
As the company marketed the Dollar Menu, which included the double cheeseburger, the McChicken sandwich, french fries, a hot fudge sundae and a 16-ounce soda, it also added healthier options to its regular menu, including salads and fruit.
But the healthier menu items did not drive the turnaround. The $1 double cheeseburgers brought in far more revenue than salads or the chicken sandwiches, which were priced in the $3 to $4.50 range.
“The Dollar Menu appeals to lower-income, ethnic consumers,” said Steve Levigne, vice president for United States business research at McDonald’s, told the New York Times in 2006. “It’s people who don’t always have $6 in their pocket.”
The Dollar Menu eventually became unsustainable, however. With inflation driving up prices, McDonald’s stores, particularly franchisee locations, struggled to afford it, and by November 2013 rebranded it as the “Dollar Menu & More” with prices up to $5.
Last year, McDonald’s took a stab at appealing to cash-stretched customers with a $5 deal for a McDouble or McChicken sandwich, small fries, small soft drink and four-piece McNuggets. And in January it rolled out a deal offering a $1 menu item alongside an item bought for full price, with an ad starring John Cena, and launched Extra Value Meals in early September — offering combos costing 15% less than ordering each of the items separately.
The marketing didn’t seem to immediately cut through to customers, with McDonald’s in May reporting U.S. same-store sales in the recent quarter declined 3.6% from the year before. However, in its recent third-quarter earnings, the company reported a 2.4% lift in sales, even as its chief executive sounded the alarm about the increasingly two-tiered economy.
That other businesses, too, are reviving deals is a sign of the times. San Francisco-based burger chain Super Duper promoted its “recession combo” on social media. For $10, customers get fries, a drink and a “recession burger” at one of the chain’s 19 California locations.
What’s clear is companies are wary of passing along higher costs to customers, said DiNatale, of Moody’s Analytics.
“A lot of businesses are saying, we just don’t think consumers will stand for this,” DiNatale said. “[Consumers] have been through years of higher prices, and there’s just very little tolerance for higher prices going forward.”
Business
Gas is $10 a gallon at a Big Sur station. The owner explains why his prices can’t go higher
The owner of Gorda by the Sea, the lone gas station for several miles in any direction from this remote, scenic hamlet in Big Sur, is charging $9.99 for a gallon of gas because, well, that’s as high as the digital numbers on the gas pumps allow.
“The software only goes to $10,” said Leo Flores, owner of the gas station and mini-market. “I know, sometimes someone wants to make a good story because of it, but we have to tell you why.”
As the lone gas station for at least 12 miles along Highway 1, the service station often prompts drivers to gasp or clutch their wallets at the sight of a $9.99 price tag for a gallon, but Flores insists he’s not trying to price-gouge his customers. In fact, he’s worried that if gas prices go much higher, it might put him out of business.
“People think you make money, but I’m not,” he said in an interview with The Times.
Motorists across the country have been griping since gasoline prices began to surge last month after the start of the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, which restricted the flow of oil from key oil-producing countries. Flores’ business is an example of how sky-rocketing fuel prices are having ripple effects throughout the economy.
The isolated gas station has been featured in the news in the past for its high prices, but Flores, who has owned the station for the last 30 years, said there’s a simple reason why the cost is so high.
“We run this place on generators,” he said. “The generators run on five to six gallons of gasoline every hour.”
It’s not just the gas station that runs on generators, he said. The small oceanside community surrounding the gas station — the mini-market, the cafe, the hotel and nearby cabins — is owned by Flores and runs on generators because there is no access to an outside electrical plant.
“When I explain why to people, they’re happy to pay what I ask them,” Flores said. “It costs me more to make my own electricity.”
According to AAA, as of Friday the national average cost of a gallon of regular gas is up to $4.09, and in California it’s $5.86. In Los Angeles County it’s even higher — about $6 a gallon. At gas stations around Gorda by the Sea, the average cost also sits at $6, according to AAA.
Flores said he has considered using solar panels to generate electricity, but the initial cost is high. To raise his gas prices any higher, he’d have to buy new pumps, an investment he’s not sure he could afford now.
High prices are not his only worry. The entire hamlet can operate only if Flores’ regular gasoline deliveries make it through on Highway 1 every two weeks.
When the highway shut down for three years because of landslides starting in 2023, he said, he struggled to get gas deliveries to run his generators and survived on only 10% to 20% of the business he normally sees. He barely made it, he said, until the highway reopening in January.
“It’s a big deal,” he said. “If the highway is closed in both directions, I’m screwed.”
Flores complained that no one pays attention to his struggles when Highway 1 closes, but it’s another story when gas prices spike.
“Why when the highway opens and I raise the price everyone points at me like I’m the bad guy?”
Business
President Trump bashed State Farm on social media: Why it didn’t come out of the blue
Victims of the January 2025 wildfires unhappy with how insurers have handled their claims have filed lawsuits, protested and complained to local and state officials.
This week, they got support from an unexpected ally: President Trump.
“It was brought to my attention that the Insurance Companies, in particular, State Farm, have been absolutely horrible to people that have been paying them large Premiums for years, only to find that when tragedy struck, these horrendous Companies were not there to help!” Trump posted on Truth Social.
He also asked U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Lee Zeldin to give him a list of insurers that “acted swiftly, courageously, and bravely” to fulfill their legal obligation and another list of those that were “particularly bad.”
State Farm, California’s largest home insurer, is under investigation for how it has handled January 2025 wildfire claims. In a statement responding to the president’s post, it said it has received 13,700 claims, paid out $5.7 billion and expects total payments could reach $7 billion.
“Our leadership position in the California homeowners insurance marketplace means State Farm General Insurance Company — the State Farm company that provides homeowners insurance in California — insured more people impacted by this disaster than anyone else,” its statement read.
Tuesday’s post had its origins in a Feb. 4 visit that Zeldin and Small Business Administrator Kelly Loeffler made to the Los Angeles area, where they met with L.A. Mayor Karen Bass, Los Angeles County Supervisor Kathryn Barger and Pacific Palisades fire victims, among others.
The visit was prompted by Trump’s criticism of the slow rebuilding process and by a Trump executive order allowing victims of the Los Angeles wildfires to rebuild without having to deal with “unnecessary, duplicative, or obstructive” permitting requirements.
Aerial image of a neighborhood along Rambla Vista in Malibu taken in December.
(Allen J. Schaben / Los Angeles Times)
1. A view of destroyed beachfront properties remaining construction-free after the Palisades fire destroyed them last year in Malibu. 2. Aerial image of the remnants of an oceanfront neighborhood in Malibu taken in December after the massive Palisades fire destroyed hundreds of homes and businesses last year. (Allen J. Schaben / Los Angeles Times)
At the time of the order, Bass dismissed it as a “meaningless political stunt,” saying the president has no authority over local permitting but could assist by speeding up Federal Emergency Management Agency funding.
The American Property Casualty Insurance Assn. industry trade group, in its response to Trump’s post, continued to point fingers at the government. It noted the fires were the third-worst natural disaster in American history in terms of insured losses, at $40 billion.
“Permitting can be a frustrating process, and it can always be improved,” it said in a statement. “Los Angeles has been approving permits three times faster than it was before the fire. However, permit issuance continues to lag.”
Barger, whose district includes the Eaton fire zone in and around Altadena, said this week that she defended the local permitting process to Zeldin. But said she also pointed out complaints about how insurers, and State Farm in particular, have handled claims.
“Many people feel that the insurance industry has let them down, and the number one company that we hear about is State Farm,” she said. “Obviously, Administrator Zeldin met with the president and outlined what I told him.”
Bass, who also spoke on the phone with Trump last month, issued a statement saying she “recently requested that the President intervene with the insurance companies to ensure they pay claims so that survivors can afford to rebuild.”
“I want to thank President Trump and EPA Administrator Zeldin for taking action and working alongside us to help survivors get the support they need and deserve,” she said.
A White House official said Friday that the EPA was working to produce the list of insurers “as quickly as possible for the president” and the “best way for insurance companies to help is to immediately pay out what they owe so victims can rebuild their lives.”
Construction crews rebuild homes that were destroyed in the Eaton fire in Altadena on March 20.
(Allen J. Schaben / Los Angeles Times)
“Administrator Zeldin, on behalf of the president, is going to hold insurance companies accountable to the great people of California,” the official said.
The federal government has played a large role in the recovery, including leading the debris cleanup and, as of February, approving 12,600 Small Business Administration loans to fire victims totaling $3.2 billion.
However, a 1945 federal law, the McCarran-Ferguson Act, delegates authority to regulate the insurance industry primarily to individual states.
Joy Chen, executive director of Eaton Fire Survivor’s Network, which represents thousands of fire victims across Los Angeles, said her group believes the federal government has a larger role to play.
“President Trump has the opportunity to restore accountability to this broken system. Federal agencies have the tools to act,” said Chen, who has been sharply critical of State Farm’s claims practices and how California Insurance Commissioner Ricardo Lara has handled complaints against the company.
She specifically called for the Federal Trade Commission to examine “deceptive sales practices” that have left Americans underinsured and for the Department of Justice to investigate “industrywide claims practices that delay, deny or underpay payments owed to policyholders.”
Lara has defended his treatment of the company, noting regulators opened a probe of State Farm’s claims practices last year.
Martin Grace, a University of Iowa business professor and expert on insurance regulation, said that aside from the “bully pulpit” Trump exercised in his social media post, the federal government’s hands are largely tied.
“He can browbeat people, and Trump’s good at that. And I think the federal government, at one level, only has that. Now, Congress and the president together could say, ‘Listen, we don’t like what the states are allowing insurers to do, and we’re going to change the regulatory system,’” he said.
Grace noted that there was an insurance industry solvency crisis in the 1970s and 1980s that led to a 1990 Congressional report and federal pressure for improved state-level regulation, which was undertaken.
“Congress basically said, ‘Get your act together, or we’re going to take [regulation] back.’” And so the states got together and did a much better job on that,” he said.
Los Angeles attorney Richard Giller, who represents plaintiffs in lawsuits against insurers, said that the federal government could still take steps to improve the market.
Those might include establishing a federal reinsurance program that shares natural disaster risks with insurers, or covering the risk itself similarly to how the National Flood Insurance Program works.
“The catastrophe insurance industry in California is incredibly broken and needs some serious repair,” he said.
Business
Video: Skilled Foreign Workers Think About Leaving the U.S.
These highly skilled, highly educated foreign workers have been documenting the challenges of trying to build a career in the U.S. “If I don’t find a job, I have to leave the country.” “I sent out 907 applications.” “Have I ever truly relaxed in America?” They need an H-1B visa, which is given through a lottery system that allows U.S. companies to hire highly skilled international professionals for up to six years, in industries like tech and medicine. But the Trump administration has made changes to the program, requiring companies to pay a high fee and enforcing new rules that prioritize higher-paid foreign workers, in an effort to make more jobs available to Americans. This has forced some foreigners to rethink their career plans. “I think the U.S. is still the golden standard.” Wen-Hsing Huang came to the U.S. from Taiwan in 2022 for the tech scene, and was hired by Amazon on an H-1B visa. “I want to use my talents to change the world, and I think the United States was the best platform to do that.” Ananya Joshi came from India to attend a master’s program in Chicago in 2022. “So it was actually my my father’s dream that I had inherited because my father couldn’t go because of his financial situation.” Haina, a Chinese national, fell in love with the U.S. while studying in New York. She got her H-1B in 2022. “I remember there were a lot of companies, they would be able to sponsor.” Haina said she’s experienced a recent shift, where it has become harder to find companies that sponsor H-1B visas. “This time when I was job searching, I didn’t realize it could be a deal breaker. I just had my second interview of 2026, and it was a pretty short call.” (Recruiter) “I don’t think we’re eligible or able to do sponsorship for this role at the moment.” “They don’t even really get to know if I’m qualified, am I experienced, or anything. The decision is already made at that point.” “Please, please make sure that the company you’re about to work for has experience handling international hires.” Joshi said a start-up she interned with during grad school rescinded their promise to sponsor her H-1B visa. “Ask for everything in writing. And then there were jobs that were contract jobs. They would just reject me. They would only need people with a green card or a U.S. citizenship.” Even with an H-1B and a six-figure salary, Huang said he felt himself becoming anxious, as tech layoffs ramped up and Trump’s immigration policies kept changing. “I woke up every morning with this knot in my stomach, because my entire life depended on the policy I couldn’t control. The United States seems not very welcoming to immigrants that contribute to this country.” “The signals are, like, pretty clear at this point. They want to make this H-1B, is, like, risky and also, like, harder.” Hello, everyone.” Despite that, Haina says she’s determined to keep looking for a job until she’s forced to leave the country. “The pressure about where I’m going to be in the next of my career or, like, my life. I sort of like lost the ability to enjoy my life or just be happy.” “So I had to leave the U.S. Of course, I expanded my search beyond the U.S. Found a job in Germany.” Joshi packed up her life and started a new role with a European biotech firm in January. “I think I left at a good time, because there would have been more stress. I would have been stuck in a loop.” “It’s an endless cycle of anxiety.” After quitting his job at Amazon, Huang is now back in Taiwan, planning to launch his own company. “To bet on building an A.I. company that gives me complete control over my time, location and future. Staying in the United States is no longer the only way to achieve my American dream.”
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