Health
How Much Vaccination Stops a Measles Outbreak?
To stop the spread of an infectious disease like measles, you don’t have to vaccinate everyone. But you do have to vaccinate many.
Just how many? To let you discover for yourself, we simulated an outbreak of a hypothetical disease, about as contagious as the flu. (A lot less contagious than measles.)
We’d like you to contain it. But first, some basics:
Here’s a sick person in a population with no protection against the disease.
That person infects some neighbors.
Who, in turn, do the same.
Soon, almost everyone has been infected.
In a world where no one has immunity, infectious diseases spread exponentially. That’s what happened early in the Covid pandemic.
But for most infectious diseases, many people will already have some level of immunity — whether through a previous infection or through vaccination — and this can slow the spread.
Now it’s your turn to try.
Level 1: Less Contagious
How low can you set the vaccination rate to contain the outbreak?
This simulation uses randomness, so the results will turn out somewhat differently every time you play it. But there are patterns that you can discover: When the vaccination level is below around 40 percent, outbreaks are very likely. Above that level, they’re quickly extinguished.
Chance of an outbreak growing out of control for a less contagious disease
That sharp gradient from red to white shows us this “herd immunity” threshold, where vaccination can halt an outbreak and protect the unvaccinated. (Including those who can’t be vaccinated, such as infants and people with weakened immune systems.)
The difference is stark. A little below that threshold, outbreaks easily grow out of control. Above it, they are quickly squelched. This is why it’s so important to keep vaccination levels above the herd immunity threshold.
Next, let’s see what happens with a disease that’s more contagious.
Level 2: More Contagious
How low can you set the vaccination rate to contain the outbreak?
Because this disease is more contagious, it can more easily slip through the gaps of unvaccinated people.
That’s why the vaccination level needed for herd immunity rose from around 40 percent to around 60 percent in this example: It takes greater levels of vaccination to contain a more contagious infectious disease.
Chance of an outbreak growing out of control for a less contagious disease …
… and for a more contagious disease
So far, all our simulations have assumed that vaccination is evenly distributed. In reality, that isn’t the case.
Our final simulation tries to capture two neighboring communities. Think of them like two school districts in the same county. In one district, 75 percent of students are vaccinated. In the other, just 50 percent are.
That means the average vaccination rate for the county overall is 63 percent — right around the herd immunity threshold for our simulated disease. But see what happens.
Unvaccinated pockets
50% Vaccinated
75% Vaccinated
For the most part, the 75 percent district is protected, while the 50 percent district is overrun, even though they sit right next to each other. Herd immunity operates at a local level, and the average vaccination rate for a broad region can mask smaller communities at risk.
On a few tries, you might have gotten lucky and seen the outbreak fizzle out. This, too, mimics reality. But luck is not an effective public health strategy.
The simulated world you saw above mirrors a real-world problem: There are increasingly many parts of the U.S. where skepticism of vaccines has gained momentum and childhood vaccination rates have fallen.
And measles is far more contagious than the disease we simulated — because of space constraints, we could not even simulate it in this form. It’s so contagious that a vaccination rate of 50 percent or even 75 percent won’t contain an outbreak.
How contagious is measles?
Epidemiologists estimate the contagiousness of an infectious disease with a “basic reproductive number,” or R0 — how many people a sick person infects, in a community with no protection.
A disease can grow out of control if an infected person infects more than one other person, on average. A person with the flu can infect one to two others — an R0 between 1 and 2.
But a person with measles can infect 10 times as many:
Disease
Contagiousness (Est. R0)
Measles
Whooping cough
Covid (Omicron)
Chickenpox
Polio
Covid (Delta)
Flu (1918)
Seasonal flu
For measles, a 1982 study put its R0 between 12 and 18. A more recent review of studies found a very wide spread, with a median of around 15 in the Americas.
That means measles is one of the most contagious diseases known. And there’s a direct relationship between contagiousness and the level of protection needed for herd immunity.
Population protection needed for herd immunity
Reaching herd immunity means each infected person can infect only one other person or fewer, on average. That means, at the high end of the measles range, you’d need to prevent 17 of 18 infections, or over 94 percent. That’s why health officials set a goal of vaccinating 95 percent of people against measles.
(The measles vaccine, unlike vaccines for some other infectious diseases, is very effective and its protection lasts decades; measles also is extremely unlikely to develop mutations that allow it to evade the vaccine.)
The average vaccination rate for kindergartners in the U.S. has fallen below that threshold since the pandemic. Most kindergarteners now live in states where the vaccination rates are below herd immunity.
Number of states with kindergarten measles vaccination rates below 95 percent
Many kindergartners live in counties and go to schools where the rates have fallen even further, below 80 percent or even below half — making it possible for measles to spread like wildfire.
Health
Dr Oz links obesity to chronic disease surge, says GLP-1s can ‘jumpstart’ better health
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Washington, DC – GLP-1 weight-loss drugs have become a prevalent part of American healthcare, and the current administration is getting behind the movement.
In an exclusive interview with Fox News Digital at the Great American State Fair in the nation’s capital on July 6, CMS Administrator Dr. Mehmet Oz voiced his support for the use of GLP-1 (glucagon-like peptide-1) medications, such as Ozempic, for appropriate uses.
“I’m a fan of GLP-1 drugs when used correctly,” he said. “They do help people who are overweight lose weight quite effectively. They’re not a replacement for diet and exercise, but they might jumpstart the system so it’s easier for you to use healthier tactics.”
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This is especially helpful for those who may have trouble moving due to joint pain or are experiencing internal dysfunction, Oz said.
Certain GLP-1 drugs are covered by Medicare for overweight candidates with certain conditions, such as high blood pressure and diabetes, and Oz projected the benefits will continue to benefit taxpayers.
Dr. Mehmet Oz is pictured in Washington, D.C., at the Great American State Fair, where he spoke about federal health policy. (Angelica Stabile/Fox News Digital)
“We believe these are so effective in reducing conditions like high blood pressure and diabetes that they’ll actually save money for the federal taxpayer, because [they’re] going to make you healthy enough that you don’t have to consume health services,” Oz said.
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“We think about 70% of all the money we spend on healthcare is caused by chronic conditions, and obesity is the No. 1 driver of all that, so it’s a smart decision.”
Oz recently announced the launch of the Medicare GLP-1 Bridge program, which will allow more seniors to access GLP-1 drugs for only $50 a month if they meet qualifying health criteria and receive prior authorization from a doctor.
The doctor expressed support for broadening affordable access to GLP-1 medications for Americans. (iStock)
“There are a lot of overweight people who don’t have high blood pressure, diabetes or other conditions, so they don’t get access to the drug normally,” he said. “We want them to have the ability to use it as well.”
Although these access shifts could boost Americans’ overall health — and in some cases could be lifesaving — Oz noted that there is “no silver bullet” when it comes to these medications.
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“I love the fact that the innovation that’s coming out of pharmaceutical companies is allowing us to save lives and make lives better,” he said. “But the real secret to longevity is eating right, exercising, sleeping, dealing with the stress of your life, finding some purpose in your existence [and] realizing you have agency over the future.”
“These are things that your mom would have told you [and that] you don’t need a doctor to be emphasizing.”
Medicating appropriately, combined with eating right, exercising and staying connected with others, can help make health goals attainable, the doctor said. (iStock)
While GLP-1s may not be a fix-all, combining these medications with foundational health practices “makes a lot of sense,” Oz said.
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“I don’t want people being fat-shamed … I don’t want you feeling guilty that you’re gaining weight even though everyone else around you seems to have figured it out,” he said. “It’s not that simple — our set points for hunger are different. We have different things going on in our lives.”
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“But if you realize how precious you are — the temple of the soul is so valuable. It’s the greatest gift your parents ever gave you, and you take advantage of every tool out there to make it work … which includes using medications when appropriate. That, to me, is MAHA.”
Health
Deadly Legionnaires’ disease outbreak sparks concern in major US city: Know the symptoms
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Amid warnings of a Legionnaires’ disease outbreak on Manhattan’s Upper East Side, health experts say that early recognition of symptoms can mean the difference between a quick recovery and life-threatening complications, especially for high-risk groups.
New York City health officials are urging anyone who has visited the east side of Central Park or Manhattan’s Upper East Side since late June to watch for symptoms.
As of July 6, the New York City Health Department had confirmed 23 cases and 17 hospitalizations associated with the respiratory infection. No deaths have been reported.
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Officials are investigating contaminated cooling towers as the likely source. They have emphasized that the illness is not spread person-to-person and is not linked to the city’s drinking water.
Health experts say that early recognition of symptoms can mean the difference between a quick recovery and life-threatening complications, especially for high-risk groups. (iStock)
“Legionnaires’ disease is deadly but can be effectively treated if diagnosed early,” said NYC Health Commissioner Dr. Alister Martin in a press release. “New Yorkers at higher risk, including anyone who is 50 and older, those who smoke or people with chronic lung conditions should be especially mindful of their symptoms and seek care as soon as symptoms begin.”
What is Legionnaires’?
Legionnaires’ disease is a type of pneumonia caused by Legionella bacteria.
The bacteria is usually found in lakes, streams and other freshwater environments, but can grow in any area where water sits for a long time, according to the CDC.
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That can include shower heads, sink faucets, hot tubs, water features/fountains, plumbing systems and other water systems.
When people swallow or breathe in droplets of water that contain Legionella, they can potentially become ill.
Although human transmission is possible in rare cases, the disease is not typically transmitted among people, per the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Symptoms of infection
Infections can lead to severe pneumonia in older people and those with compromised immune systems, according to Dr. Andrew Handel, a pediatric infectious diseases expert at Stony Brook Children’s Hospital on Long Island, New York.
Symptoms of Legionnaires’ disease usually show up between two and 14 days after exposure.
New York City health officials are urging anyone who has visited the east side of Central Park or Manhattan’s Upper East Side since late June to watch for symptoms. (iStock)
“Legionella infections cause symptoms that are similar to other forms of pneumonia — fever, coughing, difficulty breathing, shortness of breath and chest pain,” Handel previously told Fox News Digital.
“Legionnaires’ disease is deadly but can be effectively treated if diagnosed early.”
The signs are similar to other types of pneumonia, and include the following:
- Cough
- Fever
- Shortness of breath
- Muscle aches and headaches
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Some patients may also experience nausea, diarrhea and confusion, the CDC noted.
Diagnosis, treatment and prevention
A medical professional can diagnose the infection with laboratory tests and chest X-rays.
The condition is typically treated with antibiotics. In cases of severe infection, hospitalization may be required for breathing support and IV hydration.
Around 10% of people who contract Legionnaires’ disease will die from those complications — and the mortality risk rises to 25% for those who get Legionnaires’ while staying in a healthcare facility, according to the CDC.
The bacteria is usually found in lakes, streams and other freshwater environments, but can grow in any area where water sits for a long time, according to the CDC. (iStock)
“Treatment needs to be early and aggressive,” Dr. Nathan Goodyear, an Arizona-based integrative medicine expert, previously told Fox News Digital. “Legionella infection is an intracellular infection that requires antibiotic treatment.”
Antibiotics that are appropriate for Legionella infection include Levofloxacin and Azithromycin.
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“Therapy can be prescribed orally in healthy individuals… but intravenous antibiotics often prove to be the initial option for treatment secondary to the pathogenicity of the disease,” Goodyear said.
Currently, there are no vaccines for Legionnaires’ disease.
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The best strategy to prevent infection is to reduce the growth and spread of the Legionella bacteria. The CDC recommends that building owners and managers use a water management program to reduce the risk.
“New Yorkers at higher risk, including anyone who is 50 and older, those who smoke or people with chronic lung conditions should be especially mindful of their symptoms and seek care as soon as symptoms begin,” city officials stated. (iStock)
To prevent serious illness from Legionnaires’, Goodyear recommends that all smokers kick the habit, and also emphasizes the need to “aggressively support” chronic pulmonary disease.
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“Increasing immune support (vitamin D3, vitamin C, Zinc) is required to counter the immune dysfunction associated with advancing age.”
Obesity is another foundational risk factor for all chronic inflammatory diseases, the doctor added.
Health
Katie Couric couldn’t remember the year or the president during frightening brain episode
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Journalist Katie Couric is sharing a scary medical episode that she experienced on June 27.
In a post on Substack titled “The Day I’ll Never Remember,” she detailed a sudden episode that left her unable to recall the current month, year and president.
“I thought it was 2024. And I believed Joe Biden was president,” she wrote.
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The event occurred while Couric was attending the Aspen Ideas Festival in Colorado, during which she participated in two public panels — one on AI and one on journalism — both of which she cannot remember at all.
“I have no idea what we talked about, or of what occurred when the panels ended,” she said.
Journalist Katie Couric is sharing a scary medical episode that she experienced on June 27. (Getty Images)
John Molner — Couric’s husband, who was in attendance at the festival and the two panels — also shared his account.
After the event, someone told Molner that Katie wasn’t feeling well. When he reached her, an EMT and a doctor were tending to her. “I could tell something was off,” he wrote. “It could have been altitude sickness, but Katie was definitely not all there.”
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At the hospital, when Couric struggled to recall the year, the president and her grandchildren’s names, doctors began checking for a stroke.
An MRI revealed no signs of stroke, which was a relief, but “Katie’s ‘fog’ became a lot more apparent,” Molner wrote.
John Molner, Couric’s husband, who was in attendance at the festival and the two panels, also shared his account. (Getty Images)
“She repeatedly asked me the same questions: ‘What was I doing before we got to the hospital?’ ‘Why am I at the hospital?’”
Couric was ultimately diagnosed with transient global amnesia, a sudden, temporary episode of memory loss that prevents a person from forming new memories and may also erase some recent memories, according to Mayo Clinic.
“The cause seems to be as mysterious as the brain itself.”
It is not caused by a stroke, seizure or head injury, and it usually resolves completely within 24 hours.
“[It’s] just a very weird neural episode that’s pretty uncommon and, at least in most cases, is a ‘one and done’ experience,” Molner said.
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Couric said she finally began feeling “like herself” again around 9 p.m. and went to sleep at 2 a.m.
As TGA leaves a “permanent gap in memory” for the duration of the episode and for hours beforehand, Couric said that from around noon on that day until at least 7 p.m. will remain a “big, black hole.”
As TGA leaves a “permanent gap in memory” for the duration of the episode and for hours beforehand, Couric said that from around noon on that day until at least 7 p.m. will remain a “big, black hole.” (Getty Images)
Data shows that approximately three to eight people per 100,000 will have an episode of transient global amnesia, with people 50 years of age and older at higher risk.
The specific cause of TGA is not known, but some experts believe it stems from a “temporary dysfunction in the brain’s hippocampus — the area responsible for creating new memories,” Couric shared.
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“Doctors believe this is driven by brief interruptions in blood or oxygen flow, or microscopic spasm in the blood vessels.”
Episodes could potentially be triggered by intense physical exertion, emotional distress, extreme temperature changes or migraines, experts say.
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Approximately 15% of patients will have a recurrence 10 years later.
“Why did this happen to me? Was the altitude an issue? Was I dehydrated? Tired? Stressed? The literature doesn’t seem to indicate that these are contributing factors, but the cause seems to be as mysterious as the brain itself,” Couric wrote.
Anyone who experiences sudden memory loss, confusion, difficulty speaking, weakness, numbness, vision changes, severe headache or other stroke-like symptoms should seek immediate medical attention or call 911, doctors advise. (iStock)
“All I know is that those hours will be forever lost. Someone described it as my brain failing to hit the ‘record button.’”
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“While this was a freaky occurrence, it could have been much more serious. So ultimately, I’m relieved — even though several hours of a Saturday in June will always be missing for me.”
Anyone who experiences sudden memory loss, confusion, difficulty speaking, weakness, numbness, vision changes, severe headache or other stroke-like symptoms should seek immediate medical attention or call 911, doctors advise.
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