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How Much Vaccination Stops a Measles Outbreak?

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How Much Vaccination Stops a Measles Outbreak?

To stop the spread of an infectious disease like measles, you don’t have to vaccinate everyone. But you do have to vaccinate many.

Just how many? To let you discover for yourself, we simulated an outbreak of a hypothetical disease, about as contagious as the flu. (A lot less contagious than measles.)

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We’d like you to contain it. But first, some basics:

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Here’s a sick person in a population with no protection against the disease.

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That person infects some neighbors.

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Who, in turn, do the same.

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Soon, almost everyone has been infected.

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In a world where no one has immunity, infectious diseases spread exponentially. That’s what happened early in the Covid pandemic.

But for most infectious diseases, many people will already have some level of immunity — whether through a previous infection or through vaccination — and this can slow the spread.

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Now it’s your turn to try.

Level 1: Less Contagious

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How low can you set the vaccination rate to contain the outbreak?

This simulation uses randomness, so the results will turn out somewhat differently every time you play it. But there are patterns that you can discover: When the vaccination level is below around 40 percent, outbreaks are very likely. Above that level, they’re quickly extinguished.

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Chance of an outbreak growing out of control for a less contagious disease

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Based on a million simulations

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That sharp gradient from red to white shows us this “herd immunity” threshold, where vaccination can halt an outbreak and protect the unvaccinated. (Including those who can’t be vaccinated, such as infants and people with weakened immune systems.)

The difference is stark. A little below that threshold, outbreaks easily grow out of control. Above it, they are quickly squelched. This is why it’s so important to keep vaccination levels above the herd immunity threshold.

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Next, let’s see what happens with a disease that’s more contagious.

Level 2: More Contagious

How low can you set the vaccination rate to contain the outbreak?

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Because this disease is more contagious, it can more easily slip through the gaps of unvaccinated people.

That’s why the vaccination level needed for herd immunity rose from around 40 percent to around 60 percent in this example: It takes greater levels of vaccination to contain a more contagious infectious disease.

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Chance of an outbreak growing out of control for a less contagious disease

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… and for a more contagious disease

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Based on a million simulations

So far, all our simulations have assumed that vaccination is evenly distributed. In reality, that isn’t the case.

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Our final simulation tries to capture two neighboring communities. Think of them like two school districts in the same county. In one district, 75 percent of students are vaccinated. In the other, just 50 percent are.

That means the average vaccination rate for the county overall is 63 percent — right around the herd immunity threshold for our simulated disease. But see what happens.

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Unvaccinated pockets

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50% Vaccinated

75% Vaccinated

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For the most part, the 75 percent district is protected, while the 50 percent district is overrun, even though they sit right next to each other. Herd immunity operates at a local level, and the average vaccination rate for a broad region can mask smaller communities at risk.

On a few tries, you might have gotten lucky and seen the outbreak fizzle out. This, too, mimics reality. But luck is not an effective public health strategy.

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The simulated world you saw above mirrors a real-world problem: There are increasingly many parts of the U.S. where skepticism of vaccines has gained momentum and childhood vaccination rates have fallen.

And measles is far more contagious than the disease we simulated — because of space constraints, we could not even simulate it in this form. It’s so contagious that a vaccination rate of 50 percent or even 75 percent won’t contain an outbreak.

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How contagious is measles?

Epidemiologists estimate the contagiousness of an infectious disease with a “basic reproductive number,” or R0 — how many people a sick person infects, in a community with no protection.

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A disease can grow out of control if an infected person infects more than one other person, on average. A person with the flu can infect one to two others — an R0 between 1 and 2.

But a person with measles can infect 10 times as many:

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Disease Contagiousness (Est. R0)
Measles
Whooping cough
Covid (Omicron)
Chickenpox
Polio
Covid (Delta)
Flu (1918)
Seasonal flu

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For measles, a 1982 study put its R0 between 12 and 18. A more recent review of studies found a very wide spread, with a median of around 15 in the Americas.

That means measles is one of the most contagious diseases known. And there’s a direct relationship between contagiousness and the level of protection needed for herd immunity.

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Population protection needed for herd immunity

Reaching herd immunity means each infected person can infect only one other person or fewer, on average. That means, at the high end of the measles range, you’d need to prevent 17 of 18 infections, or over 94 percent. That’s why health officials set a goal of vaccinating 95 percent of people against measles.

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(The measles vaccine, unlike vaccines for some other infectious diseases, is very effective and its protection lasts decades; measles also is extremely unlikely to develop mutations that allow it to evade the vaccine.)

The average vaccination rate for kindergartners in the U.S. has fallen below that threshold since the pandemic. Most kindergarteners now live in states where the vaccination rates are below herd immunity.

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Number of states with kindergarten measles vaccination rates below 95 percent

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Data is not available for every state in every year. Includes the District of Columbia. Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

Many kindergartners live in counties and go to schools where the rates have fallen even further, below 80 percent or even below half — making it possible for measles to spread like wildfire.

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Hantavirus Vaccines and Treatments Are in the Pipeline

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Hantavirus Vaccines and Treatments Are in the Pipeline

The deadly hantavirus outbreak aboard the cruise ship MV Hondius has put the spotlight on a rare pathogen that typically attracts relatively little attention, even from scientists.

There are no targeted treatments for hantaviruses, which are typically carried by rodents, and no widely available vaccines. So when passengers began falling ill in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean, doctors and public health experts were limited in what they could offer.

“It’s kind of a wake-up call,” said Dr. Vaithi Arumugaswami, an infectious disease researcher at the University of California, Los Angeles. “Our tool kit is almost empty.”

That’s not for lack of trying. A handful of scientific teams around the world have been working — for decades, in some cases — to develop hantavirus treatments and vaccines. But it has not been easy to find funding or nurture commercial interest in medical interventions for a type of pathogen that does not infect humans often and does not spread easily between people.

“It’s not an airborne, highly contagious viral threat, so it hasn’t been as high a priority for groups trying to prevent pandemics,” said Jay Hooper, a virologist at the United States Army Medical Research Institute of Infectious Diseases.

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But there are promising vaccines and treatments in development. And some of them, experts said, could be moved through the pipeline rapidly if hantavirus interventions became a priority.

“I do think there are things that are sitting there on the bench that could be quickly developed,” said Dr. Ronald Nahass, the president of the Infectious Diseases Society of America. “But nothing is ready.”

There are two main types of hantaviruses: Old World viruses, which circulate primarily in Asia and Europe, and New World viruses, which are found in the Americas. The cruise ship outbreak has been linked to a New World virus known as the Andes virus, which is endemic to South America and is the only hantavirus known to spread between people.

There are vaccines that target some of the Old World viruses in Asia, but their efficacy is modest, experts said. And there are no licensed vaccines for the New World viruses, which include the Sin Nombre virus endemic to rodents in the western United States.

But there are some in development. Dr. Hooper and his colleagues have developed a DNA vaccine for the Andes virus, which proved promising in a small phase 1 trial. Under certain dosing regimens, the researchers found, more than 80 percent of participants produced neutralizing antibodies. “It’s pretty amazing,” said Dr. Hooper, who is an inventor on multiple hantavirus vaccine patents owned by the U.S. government. “Getting these kinds of neutralizing antibodies in humans is impressive.”

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There were drawbacks, including that the vaccine seemed to require at least three doses. But the vaccine is ready for further development “if there’s a need,” Dr. Hooper said. “We’ve done the science. It’s just other forces that are required to move vaccines forward — markets, government demand.”

Other teams have potential vaccines in earlier stages of development. For instance, Bryce Warner, a hantavirus researcher at the University of Saskatchewan, and his colleagues are exploring a variety of approaches, including a nasal vaccine that they hope might spark a more robust immune response in the airway.

But the research, which is being conducted in hamsters, is still in early stages, and hantavirus vaccine candidates can be challenging to move forward. Scientists lack good large-animal models for hantaviruses, Dr. Warner said, and human cases are rare enough to make trials tricky. “It’s very difficult to conduct a clinical trial when you only have a limited number of cases annually,” he said. “You don’t have the numbers of people to really show a robust effect.”

Currently, the primary treatment for hantavirus infection is supportive care, which may include supplemental oxygen or heart-lung bypass machines. Doctors also sometimes prescribe an existing antiviral drug, called ribavirin, but there is not strong evidence that it is effective for New World viruses, scientists said.

The hunt for new drugs is underway, though. At U.C.L.A., Dr. Arumugaswami and his colleagues found that favipiravir, an antiviral approved to treat influenza in Japan, inhibited the Andes virus in human cells. They also identified several compounds that had broad antiviral activity, blocking hantaviruses as well as other types of viruses, in human organoids, miniature clusters of tissue that mimic the function of organs.

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Other teams have been working to develop therapeutic antibody treatments, often working from blood samples collected from hantavirus survivors. “We were able to isolate the natural antibodies that people are making and basically winnow them down and find one that was really good,” said Kartik Chandran, a virologist at the Albert Einstein College of Medicine in New York. “We actually found several.”

When Dr. Chandran and his colleagues tested these antibodies in hamsters, one produced especially encouraging results: It seemed to work against both Old and New World hantaviruses and was effective even when given relatively late in the course of infection, Dr. Chandran said.

(Dr. Chandran is listed as an inventor on patents for hantavirus antibodies.)

Several other teams have also produced antibodies that were broadly effective in small animals, but that is where a number of potential products have stalled, experts said.

“We have a lead drug, and now what we need is someone to pay the money, which would be something like $40 million, to go the next step,” said Dr. James Crowe, director of the Vanderbilt Center for Antibody Therapeutics. “We have neither government nor foundation nor company support to do that. So we’re just waiting to find a partner.”

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(Vanderbilt University has applied for patents related to these antibodies; Dr. Crowe is listed as the inventor.)

Experts said that they hoped the current outbreak might help bring attention to a family of often-overlooked viruses.

“Certainly judging by just my inbox and text messages, there’s a renewed interest in these agents, and renewed interest in maybe at least revisiting where they are in the priority list,” Dr. Chandran said.

Whether that interest can be sustained after the virus fades from the headlines remains to be seen, experts acknowledged.

“Raising awareness never hurts,” Dr. Warner said. “We’ll see whether or not it leads to anything tangible, at least in terms of funding and resources for advancing some of these things that are lacking for hantavirus.”

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Fitness expert visits gyms nationwide, shouts out 4 clubs for ‘getting it right’

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Fitness expert visits gyms nationwide, shouts out 4 clubs for ‘getting it right’

NEWYou can now listen to Fox News articles!

Gym membership in the U.S. hit a record high in 2025, according to the Health & Fitness Association, giving consumers more workout options — and more choices to sort through when picking the right fitness space.

Amid today’s wellness renaissance, many gyms and fitness clubs can cost hundreds of dollars per month, depending on the level of access and amenities offered.

In an interview with Fox News Digital, Kenny Santucci — New York City fitness trainer, gym owner and host of the “Strong New York” podcast — revealed the attributes of a great gym.

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“A lot of people traditionally look at gyms [as if] they have to have all the bells and whistles,” he said. “Spa, bathrooms, all these things. For me, a gym is a gym. I go there for the equipment, I go for the culture, I go for the look and feel of the place.”

He added, “You can have an incredible gym [that’s] a garage gym, and you can have an incredible gym [that] somebody could have built for $10 million.”

Amid today’s wellness renaissance, many gyms and fitness clubs can cost hundreds of dollars per month, depending on the level of access and amenities offered. A New York City fitness trainer (not pictured) has a different view of what makes the best gyms.

Santucci, who visits new gyms across the country and posts his experiences on social media, said he looks for a balance between aesthetics and equipment quality, as well as “great people.”

“I think you could go and get in a sweat or a workout anywhere — but if the people are great, that’s what creates that great culture,” he said.

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“If you ask the average person who goes to most big-box gyms, the things they tell you they love about the gym are, ‘Oh, I love the showers. They have really nice towels.’ It’s nothing that actually pertains to the gym, and I believe that people should go to the gym to progress and get better,” he added.

With these goals in mind, Santucci revealed some of his top-rated gyms in the U.S.

Life Time Fitness

Life Time is a chain of luxury health clubs in the U.S., offering amenities like indoor courts, swimming pools, saunas and group fitness classes.

Santucci applauded the gym’s founder and CEO, Bahram Akradi, for being a “very hands-on owner and operator,” overseeing hundreds of gyms across the country.

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The facade of an upscale Lifetime gym is shown in Walnut Creek, California, on April 8, 2025. (Smith Collection/Gado/Getty Images)

“[Bahran’s] mentality and belief system around the fitness space, I absolutely love,” he said.

“I give a lot of credit to the guys who are owners and operators,” Santucci added. “They’re in the space, they’re making sure things are going really well. I think if you’re going to be in the gym business, you should be one of those people.”

Anatomy Gyms (Florida)

Santucci also shouted out Marc Megna, co-founder and co-CEO of Florida-based Anatomy Fitness for building a must-visit space.

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“It’s an incredible culture there, and I think that’s what they really push at that gym,” he said.

“The way the gym’s set up, the cleanliness of it, the aesthetics – you walk in that place, and you want to train … and those are things you can’t just buy … You have to live it, love it and be involved in the day-to-day operations.”

Powerhouse (New York/New Jersey)

In a newer recommendation, Santucci said he’s enjoyed stopping into Powerhouse Gym in New York City.

The New York- and New Jersey-based gym focuses on weight training and bodybuilding, including a powerlifting room and boxing rig at its locations.

“I just started going there, once or twice a week,” he said. “I really love the people and the culture.”

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The Training Lab (NYC)

For more of a group fitness and Hyrox training experience, Santucci recommends The Training Lab in New York City. (Hyrox is a global fitness racing brand and training system with affiliated gyms and training clubs.)

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“The guys over at Training Lab are incredible,” he told Fox News Digital. “Another owner-operator who’s involved in the business, who partakes in everything. I think they’re another great gym.”

“If you’re looking for group training, Training Lab’s a great space.”

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Participants compete in the burpee broad jumps event during the Hyrox fitness race at the Bangkok International Trade and Exhibition Centre in Bangkok on March 21, 2026. (Amaury Paul/AFP)

The price of wellness

While some premier gym memberships can cost upward of $300 a month, Santucci said it isn’t necessary to spend a lot to get results, although it may result in more of an “experience.”

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“We need to restructure the way we think about health and wellness,” he said. “People aren’t going out as much anymore. They’re not spending as much on alcohol.

“It’s all what you prioritize. I prioritize fitness,” he went on. “I belong to multiple gyms. I have a membership to TMPL Gym here in [New York City]. I have a membership to Renzo Gracie’s. That’s what I like to do with my money.”

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While some premier gym memberships can cost upward of $300 a month, Santucci emphasized that it isn’t necessary to spend a lot to get results. (iStock)

Santucci said what he’s paying for goes beyond the equipment — pointing to the staff, community and overall atmosphere as part of the value.

“If you want that elevated experience, you’re going to pay for that just like you would at a hotel or a restaurant or anything else,” he said.

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The expert suggested that wellness has recently become a “third form of hygiene.”

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“It’s like you take a shower, you brush your teeth and you go to the gym,” he said. “I think those are three non-negotiables for almost everybody on a daily basis when it comes to your hygiene.”

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There Are Ants in This Canadian Hospital. Again.

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There Are Ants in This Canadian Hospital. Again.

Ants can be a nuisance. Just ask officials at a hospital in Canada who are dealing with an “appearance of ants within the operating room” that has forced them to indefinitely suspend some surgeries there.

The ants appeared recently at Carman Memorial Hospital in Carman Manitoba, according to a statement from Southern Health-Santé Sud, the provincial authority that oversees the hospital.

It was not clear when the hospital would resume operations, but Southern Health said on Friday that a “limited number of elective surgeries” had been postponed and that the hospital was working with patients to reschedule them. Portage Online, a local news website, reported that 16 operations had been postponed, citing information from Southern Health.

It’s not the first time ants have disrupted operations at the hospital. The insects appeared there in August 2024, but “the issue resolved within a few weeks,” Southern Health said. They returned last summer. But with their reappearance this week, the hospital said it was taking more drastic measures. The hospital serves the area around Carman, a town with a population of around 3,000 residents about 47 miles southwest of Winnipeg.

“Any factor that could impact the safety or integrity of the operating room environment requires the suspension of surgical activity until the issue can be resolved,” Southern Health said. “The safety of patients, staff and physicians is paramount.”

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The hospital is working with exterminators “to identify the source of the ants and implement additional measures and support a long-term resolution.” Southern Health told Portage Online that exterminators had “surveyed and cleaned drains, opened walls and sealed cracks.”

“Several methods have been used to bait the ants in an effort to find where they are originating from,” the authority said.

In a separate statement to the CBC, Southern Health said that it believed that an ant colony had made its home near the hospital and that they appeared to be “simply seeking food sources inside buildings as ants are known to do.”

The hospital also told the CBC that the ant problem at the hospital did not amount to an “infestation.”

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