Health
Governments brace for future waves of COVID
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Because the third winter of the coronavirus pandemic looms within the northern hemisphere, scientists are warning weary governments and populations alike to brace for extra waves of COVID-19.
In the USA alone, there might be as much as one million infections a day this winter, Chris Murray, head of the Institute of Well being Metrics and Analysis (IHME), an impartial modeling group on the College of Washington that has been monitoring the pandemic, advised Reuters. That may be round double the present each day tally.
Throughout the UK and Europe, scientists predict a collection of COVID waves, as individuals spend extra time indoors in the course of the colder months, this time with almost no masking or social distancing restrictions in place.
Nonetheless, whereas instances could surge once more within the coming months, deaths and hospitalizations are unlikely to rise with the identical depth, the specialists mentioned, helped by vaccination and booster drives, earlier an infection, milder variants and the supply of extremely efficient COVID remedies.
“The people who find themselves at best threat are those that have by no means seen the virus, and there is virtually no person left,” mentioned Murray.
AS THE BA.5 OMICRON SUBVARIANT SURGES, VACCINE EXPERTS URGE HIGH RISK PEOPLE TO GET COVID-19 BOOSTER NOW
These forecasts elevate new questions on when nations will transfer out of the COVID emergency section and right into a state of endemic illness, the place communities with excessive vaccination charges see smaller outbreaks, presumably on a seasonal foundation.
Many specialists had predicted that transition would start in early 2022, however the arrival of the extremely mutated Omicron variant of coronavirus disrupted these expectations.
“We have to put aside the thought of ‘is the pandemic over?’” mentioned Adam Kucharski, an epidemiologist on the London Faculty of Hygiene and Tropical Medication. He and others see COVID morphing into an endemic menace that also causes a excessive burden of illness.
“Somebody as soon as advised me the definition of endemicity is that life simply will get a bit worse,” he added.
The potential wild card stays whether or not a brand new variant will emerge that out-competes at present dominant Omicron subvariants.
If that variant additionally causes extra extreme illness and is best capable of evade prior immunity, that may be the “worst-case situation,” in line with a current World Well being Group (WHO) Europe report.
“All eventualities (with new variants) point out the potential for a big future wave at a degree that’s as unhealthy or worse than the 2020/2021 epidemic waves,” mentioned the report, based mostly on a mannequin from Imperial Faculty of London.
Confounding Components
Lots of the illness specialists interviewed by Reuters mentioned that making forecasts for COVID has turn out to be a lot more durable, as many individuals depend on fast at-home exams that aren’t reported to authorities well being officers, obscuring an infection charges.
BA.5, the Omicron subvariant that’s at present inflicting infections to peak in lots of areas, is extraordinarily transmissible, which means that many sufferers hospitalized for different diseases could take a look at optimistic for it and be counted amongst extreme instances, even when COVID-19 is just not the supply of their misery.
Scientists mentioned different unknowns complicating their forecasts embrace whether or not a mix of vaccination and COVID an infection – so-called hybrid immunity – is offering higher safety for individuals, in addition to how efficient booster campaigns could also be.
“Anybody who says they will predict the way forward for this pandemic is both overconfident or mendacity,” mentioned David Dowdy, an infectious illness epidemiologist at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg Faculty of Public Well being.
Specialists are also carefully watching developments in Australia, the place a resurgent flu season mixed with COVID is overwhelming hospitals. They are saying it’s attainable that Western nations might see the same sample after a number of quiet flu seasons.
“If it occurs there, it might occur right here. Let’s put together for a correct flu season,” mentioned John McCauley, director of the Worldwide Influenza Centre on the Francis Crick Institute in London.
The WHO has mentioned every nation nonetheless must strategy new waves with all of the instruments within the pandemic armory – from vaccinations to interventions, corresponding to testing and social distancing or masking.
WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT BA.5, THE VACCINE-RESISTANT VARIANT OF OMICRON
Israel’s authorities lately halted routine COVID testing of vacationers at its worldwide airport, however is able to resume the observe “inside days” if confronted with a serious surge, mentioned Sharon Alroy-Preis, head of the nation’s public well being service.
“When there’s a wave of infections, we have to put masks on, we have to take a look at ourselves,” she mentioned. “That is dwelling with COVID.”
Health
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Health
One state leads country in human bird flu with nearly 40 confirmed cases
A child in California is presumed to have H5N1 bird flu, according to the San Francisco Department of Public Health (SFDPH).
As of Dec. 23, there had been 36 confirmed human cases of bird flu in the state, according to the California Department of Public Health (CDPH).
This represents more than half of the human cases in the country.
LOUISIANA REPORTS FIRST BIRD FLU-RELATED HUMAN DEATH IN US
The latest pediatric patient, who lives in San Francisco, experienced fever and conjunctivitis (pink eye) as a result of the infection.
The unnamed patient was not hospitalized and has fully recovered, according to the SFDPH.
The child tested positive for bird flu at the SFDPH Public Health Laboratory. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) will perform additional tests to confirm the result.
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It is not yet known how the child was exposed to the virus and an investigation is ongoing.
“I want to assure everyone in our city that the risk to the general public is low, and there is no current evidence that the virus can be transmitted between people,” said Dr. Grant Colfax, director of health, in the press release.
BIRD FLU PATIENT HAD VIRUS MUTATIONS, SPARKING CONCERN ABOUT HUMAN SPREAD
“We will continue to investigate this presumptive case, and I am urging all San Franciscans to avoid direct contact with sick or dead birds, especially wild birds and poultry. Also, please avoid unpasteurized dairy products.”
Samuel Scarpino, director of AI and life sciences and professor of health sciences at Northeastern University in Boston, is calling for “decisive action” to protect individuals who may be in contact with infected livestock and also to alert the public about the risks associated with wild birds and infected backyard flocks.
“While I agree that the risk to the broader public remains low, we continue to see signs of escalating risk associated with this outbreak,” he told Fox News Digital.
Experts have warned that the possibility of mutations in the virus could enable person-to-person transmission.
“While the H5N1 virus is currently thought to only transmit from animals to humans, multiple mutations that can enhance human-to-human transmission have been observed in the severely sick American,” Dr. Jacob Glanville, CEO of Centivax, a San Francisco biotechnology company, told Fox News Digital.
“This highlights the requirement for vigilance and preparation in the event that additional mutations create a human-transmissible pandemic strain.”
As of Jan. 10, there have been a total of 707 infected cattle in California, per reports from the California Department of Food and Agriculture (CDFA).
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In the last 30 days alone, the virus has been confirmed in 84 dairy farms in the state.
Health
Chronic Pain Afflicts Billions of People. It’s Time for a Revolution.
“In the beginning, everyone thought they were going to find this one breakthrough pain drug that would replace opioids,” Gereau said. Increasingly, though, it’s looking like chronic pain, like cancer, could end up having a range of genetic and cellular drivers that vary both by condition and by the particular makeup of the person experiencing it. “What we’re learning is that pain is not just one thing,” Gereau added. “It’s a thousand different things, all called ‘pain.’”
For patients, too, the landscape of chronic pain is wildly varied. Some people endure a miserable year of low-back pain, only to have it vanish for no clear reason. Others aren’t so lucky. A friend of a friend spent five years with extreme pain in his arm and face after roughhousing with his son. He had to stop working, couldn’t drive, couldn’t even ride in a car without a neck brace. His doctors prescribed endless medications: the maximum dose of gabapentin, plus duloxetine and others. At one point, he admitted himself to a psychiatric ward, because his pain was so bad that he’d become suicidal. There, he met other people who also became suicidal after years of living with terrible pain day in and day out.
The thing that makes chronic pain so awful is that it’s chronic: a grinding distress that never ends. For those with extreme pain, that’s easy to understand. But even less severe cases can be miserable. A pain rating of 3 or 4 out of 10 sounds mild, but having it almost all the time is grueling — and limiting. Unlike a broken arm, which gets better, or tendinitis, which hurts mostly in response to overuse, chronic pain makes your whole world shrink. It’s harder to work, and to exercise, and even to do the many smaller things that make life rewarding and rich.
It’s also lonely. When my arms first went crazy, I could barely function. But even after the worst had passed, I saw friends rarely; I still couldn’t drive more than a few minutes, or sit comfortably in a chair, and I felt guilty inviting people over when there wasn’t anything to do. As Christin Veasley, director and co-founder of the Chronic Pain Research Alliance, puts it: “With acute pain, medications, if you take them, they get you over a hump, and you go on your way. What people don’t realize is that when you have chronic pain, even if you’re also taking meds, you rarely feel like you were before. At best, they can reduce your pain, but usually don’t eliminate it.”
A cruel Catch-22 around chronic pain is that it often leads to anxiety and depression, both of which can make pain worse. That’s partly because focusing on a thing can reinforce it, but also because emotional states have physical effects. Both anxiety and depression are known to increase inflammation, which can also worsen pain. As a result, pain management often includes cognitive behavioral therapy, meditation practice or other coping skills. But while those tools are vital, it’s notoriously hard to reprogram our reactions. Our minds and bodies have evolved both to anticipate pain and to remember it, making it hard not to worry. And because chronic pain is so uncomfortable and isolating, it’s also depressing.
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