Finance
Warning from S&P that European financial markets are too fragmented
Although growth in the Eurozone is back, geopolitical risks posed by the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East remain, along with tighter financial conditions and the reshaping of the political landscape across Europe.
S&P Global released its Eurozone economic outlook for Q3 2024 on Monday morning, highlighting that growth in the Eurozone has returned mainly due to a fall in energy and commodities prices.
This is likely to allow gross domestic product (GDP) growth to increase from 0.7% this year to 1.4% in 2025, a slight rise from the 1.3% predicted by S&P Global in March. Eurozone inflation is also expected to come back to the European Central Bank (ECB)’s 2% target by mid-2025, if present conditions remain more or less constant.
Productivity bouncing back, wages growing at a slower pace and profit margins stabilising should also contribute significantly to cooling inflation. It’s expected to average 2.2% next year, coming down from around 2.4% this year.
The Eurozone economy has also mostly achieved a soft landing because last winter was milder-than-expected resulting in a knock-on effect on key sectors such as construction. S&P also expects consumer spending to bounce back in the latter half of the year, as retail energy prices abate further, benefiting consumers directly.
However, the report also highlights that the risks of higher inflation, tighter financial conditions and lagging growth have increased since March 2024.
The report also says, “The geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine remain the main risks weighing on our immediate economic outlook. That aside, other pockets of risks have intensified in recent months. These concern the decoupling of monetary policies on both sides of the Atlantic, political uncertainty in Europe and the worsening of Europe’s economic relations with China.”
What are some of the risks for Q3 2024?
Political instability also remains a concern, especially in the wake of the recent EU elections. Regarding this, S&P Global’s chief EMEA economist, Sylvain Broyer told Euronews, “We can definitely see some political uncertainty extending more from the national consequences of the European Parliament elections, rather than the elections themselves, with the French snap elections being at the top of everyone’s minds.
“They are a source of uncertainty and that can definitely undermine confidence and then make the recovery in investments that we expect in 2025 more fragile.”
Another major risk that could be seen in the next few months is the possibility of escalating EU-China tensions, sparked off mainly due to the EU considering tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, in order to protect and promote European automobiles.
The report says, “In terms of trade, China is Europe’s second most important partner after the US. It accounts for 10% of total EU exports and 22% of EU imports, around half of which are products that are critical to the European economy.”
Coming to how high these tensions could possibly go, Broyer said, “It is obvious that trade relationships between Europe and China are deteriorating and it is very likely that they will get even worse. I don’t think that this will escalate to a full-blown trade war. I also don’t expect the EU-China trade relations to worsen as much as the US-China trade relations.
This is because the European economy and the Chinese economy are highly interdependent and the respective supply chains are much more intertwined than China is with the US supply chain. For instance, Europe is definitely reliant on China for the import of critical products, such as solar panels, necessary for the green transition, but China is also very dependent on European technology, not just for cars, but also for other transport equipment and electronics.
Almost 15% of the value added by European companies to electronics is exported to China, so that shows the degree of interconnectedness.”
There has also been an increasing risk of more European companies leaving the continent’s biggest stock exchanges in order to list elsewhere, in the US or in Asia.
“This is definitely a sign that European financial markets are too fragmented, too national, too expensive for issuers and for retail investors. To cut a long story short, Europe needs to move forward on the Capital Markets Union, and that is definitely a top priority for the next commission”, says Broyer.
Similarly, he also believes that streamlining financial and other regulations is key, to make sure that European companies are actually supported and empowered to meet the green transition goals.
Coming to what the EU can do to attract more investment in the continent, as well as retain companies wishing to leave for the US and other markets, Broyer emphasises that this is not just a case of Europe wanting to win over external competition. It is also about the continent returning to its own previous higher productivity levels, seen in the last few years.
There could also be a few challenges for the ECB to continue on its rate-cutting path in the near future, according to Broyer.
ADVERTISEMENT“The needle of the ECB is inflation and the central bank needs to see more progress on wage growth and the most domestic parts of core inflation, in the services prices. Another element which is becoming more and more obvious is the Fed. The longer the Fed waits and doesn’t deliver much guidance on when and by how much it will start cutting rates, the more it is a problem for the ECB to cut rates further.”
Broyer highlights that this decoupling in monetary policy between the ECB and the US Federal Reserve became increasingly obvious in the first three months of the year.
“European investors have already shifted $50 billion into the US treasury market and probably, it will accelerate in the second and third quarter, so that’s definitely one limitation for the ECB, even if this issue of decoupling monetary policy is a smaller one for central banks generally,” he said.
Why is Spain expected to see strong growth this year?
The Spanish economy is expected to grow more than Germany in Q3, for a variety of reasons. The report emphasises: “Lower energy costs helped the German economy to emerge from recession in the first quarter of 2024, thanks to a recovery in production in energy-intensive sectors such as the chemicals industry. However, the German economy still lags other large European economies in terms of growth.
“Spain, noticeably, continues to beat expectations, with GDP growth accelerating for the third consecutive quarter to 0.7% quarter-on-quarter. The post-pandemic normalisation of tourism is not the only reason for this. Industrial production is continuously expanding in Spain. Last year, consumer spending was the main driver of growth, adding one percentage point of a 2.5 percentage-point increase in Spain’s GDP.
ADVERTISEMENT“Second-round effects on core inflation have also been more muted in Spain than in many other countries. Stronger employment growth, stimulated by labour market reforms aimed at replacing limited-term employment contracts with open-ended ones, is another explanation. The dynamism in employment does not hinder productivity growth, in contrast to the other three major economies of the Eurozone, Germany, France and Italy.”
Finance
Local M&A advisory firm Matrix acquired by banking giant Citizens Financial – Richmond BizSense
Matri x Capital Markets Group is now a division of Citizens Financial Group. (Image Courtesy Citizens Financial Group)
Matrix Capital Markets Group is used to helping businesses line up mergers and acquisitions.
For its latest transaction, the Richmond-based M&A advisory and investment banking firm was itself the subject of the deal.
Matrix was acquired last week by Rhode Island-based banking giant Citizens Financial Group.
Matrix, along with its nearly three dozen employees, including 20 in Richmond, are now operating as a division of Citizens, within the $226 billion bank’s investment banking arm, Citizens JMP Securities.
Financial terms of the deal were not disclosed. It involved an asset purchase that bought out Matrix’s 15 shareholders.
The deal ends Matrix’s 38-year run as an independent firm, a notable streak in an industry where consolidation of smaller firms into larger ones is common.
Matrix was founded in Richmond in 1988 by Scott Frayser and Jeff Moore and has since hit its stride by building a niche in handling deals for companies in the downstream energy and convenience retail sector.
The firm has been run in recent years by president Spencer Cavalier and Cedric Fortemps, co-head of the firm’s largest investment banking team.
Fortemps said Matrix began to search for a larger acquirer last year.
Cedric Fortemps
“The board decided to see if we could find a partner and a transaction that could build on what we’ve built thus far,” Fortemps said.
Matrix enlisted investment banking firm Houlihan Lokey to help in the search and negotiate on its behalf, along with the law firm Calfee as its legal advisor.
Fortemps said Citizen rose to the top of the pack of suitors in part due to JMP Securities’ track record of acquiring smaller firms like Matrix.
“They have acquired four other firms very similar to ours. Seeing the successes they had with those groups… the playbook is really to let the firms continue to operate the way they had,” Fortemps said.
Matrix’s Richmond office in the Gateway Plaza building downtown will continue to operate, as will its second office in Baltimore.
The Matrix brand will continue to be used for the time being but will eventually be phased out.
Fortemps said the firm’s success and particularly its growth in recent years has been fueled by its expertise in working deals for downstream energy clients – such as wholesale fuels distributors, propane and heating oil distributors – and convenience store and gas station chains.
Matrix’s rise in that sector began in 1997, when it hired Tom Kelso, who lived in Baltimore and owned a heating oil fuels distribution business. Kelso, who would eventually serve as the firm’s president prior to Cavalier, had a vision to launch an M&A firm for that industry.
“It took seven to eight years to grow it but eventually we were able to get a reputation of really high quality work and those successes on smaller transactions resulted in us being considered for larger deals,” Fortemps said.
Today, 21of the firm’s 26 investment bankers work on the team that handles deals for those industries. It controls about 40% market share for the M&A market for those sectors, Fortemps said.
The firm closes nearly two dozen transactions a year over the last five years and has closed 500 deals since its inception.
The typical value of its deals is more than $20 million, though the transactions it has closed over the last three years in the energy and convenience retail sectors have grown to $140 million per deal, Matrix said.
Its largest deal to date was closed last year, involving the $1.6 billion acquisition of convenience store chain Giant Eagle.
Matrix also works deals in other industries such as lubricants distribution, automotive after-market suppliers and car washes, as well as outdoor recreation and the marine industry.
After decades of representing buyers and sellers in M&A, Fortemps said the Citizens deal was a new experience for the Matrix team: being the target of the transaction, rather than the ones facilitating it.
“It certainly made me appreciate everything our clients have to go through on the other side of the table,” he said.
As the business side of team sports, such as football, becomes larger and more complex, the opportunities for banks to provide financing solutions for the individuals and institutions involved proliferate. At Deutsche Bank’s private bank, it sees considerable opportunities ahead.
With American and other non-UK investors/owners buying into UK
football teams, it has highlighted that handling the
financial side of sports is now a distinct asset class that even
those uninterested in sports should consider.
Deutsche Bank’s private banking arm certainly considers sports
finance a sufficiently large area to warrant a specialist
offering, as announced
a few days ago. The business focuses on Europe and the
US.
The financing business is led by Arjun Nagarkatti, who is the
head of the private bank for the US and Europe international
business. Deutsche
Bank has appointed Sowmya Kotha in London and Joshua Frank in
New York, who report to Adam Russ, head of wealth management and
business lending.
“Sport can be a local passion project. However, it is becoming
more of a legitimate asset class. Even a non-sports person should
look at sports,” Nagarkatti told WealthBriefing in a
meeting at the German bank’s London offices in the City. “These
are big businesses and a lot of people still don’t know how big
they are.”
Family offices/ultra HNW individuals are trying to take
a “more institutional” approach to transacting in sports
teams, he said.
Setting up such a business feeds into the specialist lending and
financial advisory work that Deutsche has discussed
with this publication in recent months. (See
an example here – via Hong Kong.) This work uses the
combined private bank/investment banking connections where
private clients will also have operating business concerns.
The sports financing business shows that this area is not simply
a private banking niche. Rival Citigroup, for example,
spoke to this news service in 2025 about its work with
ultra-wealthy people wanting to buy, sell and run sports teams.
Our US correspondent recently wrote about opportunities for
wealth management arising from changes in college
sports.
The expanded capability at Deutsche on the sports side is
“significant for the bank,” Nagarkatti said. “It is a core focus
for us.”
UHNW sports owners/potential owners tend to be ideal clients –
they are internationally minded, want advice and guidance on
financial/personal wealth matters, he continued. “This is a big
opportunity for us and it is a consistent connection we have had
with clients, and we have been doing this for 10 to 15
years.”
Deutsche is initially concentrating on the English Premier
League. As its US franchise has expanded, this has led to
financing across all four major US sports leagues: National
Football League; Major League Baseball; National Basketball
Association, and National Hockey League.
Mention of cross-border owners of clubs leads to potential owners
of, say, a UK football club needing to understand that when
they buy a team, they’re also buying into hopes and dreams.
Owners raise their heads above a parapet – not always a fun
experience.
“You become a public figure,” Nagarkatti said.
One example that springs to mind is Sir Jim Ratcliffe, the
billionaire founder of INEOS, the chemical producer who took
a 27.7 per cent stake in Manchester United more than a year
ago. While well known in business circles before buying into the
“Red Devils” –
one of the most famous sports institutions in the world – his
profile has risen since, with every comment – controversial or
otherwise – analysed, not always kindly.
American owners of teams have to adjust to the risk, for example
when a football (soccer) team gets relegated, Nagarkatti
said. Anyone looking to own a club must understand risks,
including how their public profile, assuming they were very
private people, rises rapidly, and in ways that are not always
comfortable if a team has problems, he said.
There is a need for realism.
“When you buy these top assets, you must spend time and work them
and increase their value. You must be prepared to invest time,
such as on the team, stadiums, facilities,” Nagarkatti said. “It
is like buying a hotel. You cannot just sit there and think it
will go up in value by 10 times.”
For the wealth management industry in general, the business of
sports teams, as well as the individual financial affairs of
sportsmen and women, has become a distinct – and large –
specialism. For example, the Rockefeller Global Family Office has
experts who look after athletes and entertainers. Other firms
that have expertise in and around sports include Carnegie Private
Wealth, for example, and Merrill Lynch Management. In the UK, the
private banking group Coutts has a sports, media and
entertainment division for its wealthy clients. Standard
Chartered, the UK-listed bank with a significant presence in
Asia, has launched a new alternative fund focused on sports for
ultra-high net worth and high net worth clients under its Global
Private Bank. Standard Chartered is a sponsor of Liverpool
FC.
Deutsche Bank announced 2025 full-year and fourth-quarter
financial results here.
Australians now need a record amount of superannuation to afford a comfortable retirement, and one group is still lagging significantly behind. Women are approaching retirement with tens of thousands of dollars less in superannuation than men, but there are moves that can be made now to help close the gap.
By the age of 40 to 44, men have a median super balance of $108,344, compared to women with $79,445 – a gap of nearly $30,000. This gap peaks in the 55 to 59 age range, where men have $202,584 on average and women $140,662 – a difference of more than $60,000.
AustralianSuper deputy chief executive and chief member officer Rose Kerlin told Yahoo Finance while we’ve seen some improvements over time, the super gender gap is “still very real” and becomes the most obvious as women approached retirement.
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“A big part of the gap comes down to caregiving and disparities in pay. When women take time out of the workforce or move into part-time roles to care for children or family members, their super takes a hit, and that impact compounds year after year,” she said.
This gap is particularly worrying now that a single homeowner aged 67 needs a lump sum of $630,000, up from $595,000, to achieve a comfortable retirement. Couple homeowners need a balance of $730,000 in super, which is up from $690,000.
In contrast, the latest ATO data shows men at or approaching retirement at 60 to 64 have a median balance of $219,73, while women have $163,218.
The government has flagged reforms to help address the gap. Since July last year, superannuation has been paid on government parental leave payments.
From July next year, the Low Income Superannuation Tax Offset (LISTO) income threshold will increase from $37,000 to $45,000 to align with the top of the second income-tax bracket. The maximum LISTO payment will increase from $500 to $810.
While policy reform is important, Kerlin said there were also things women could do now to feel more on top of their super and more confident about where they’re headed.
“Small actions today can help build greater confidence and security for the years ahead,” she said.
One action could be making additional contributions, even small ones, whenever possible, as this could make a big difference over time.
AustralianSuper’s modelling found that someone who made after-tax contributions of $600 annually between the ages of 35 to 39 and met the eligibility criteria for the government’s co-contribution of $300 each year could retire with $9,000 more.
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