Finance
Warning from S&P that European financial markets are too fragmented
Although growth in the Eurozone is back, geopolitical risks posed by the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East remain, along with tighter financial conditions and the reshaping of the political landscape across Europe.
S&P Global released its Eurozone economic outlook for Q3 2024 on Monday morning, highlighting that growth in the Eurozone has returned mainly due to a fall in energy and commodities prices.
This is likely to allow gross domestic product (GDP) growth to increase from 0.7% this year to 1.4% in 2025, a slight rise from the 1.3% predicted by S&P Global in March. Eurozone inflation is also expected to come back to the European Central Bank (ECB)’s 2% target by mid-2025, if present conditions remain more or less constant.
Productivity bouncing back, wages growing at a slower pace and profit margins stabilising should also contribute significantly to cooling inflation. It’s expected to average 2.2% next year, coming down from around 2.4% this year.
The Eurozone economy has also mostly achieved a soft landing because last winter was milder-than-expected resulting in a knock-on effect on key sectors such as construction. S&P also expects consumer spending to bounce back in the latter half of the year, as retail energy prices abate further, benefiting consumers directly.
However, the report also highlights that the risks of higher inflation, tighter financial conditions and lagging growth have increased since March 2024.
The report also says, “The geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine remain the main risks weighing on our immediate economic outlook. That aside, other pockets of risks have intensified in recent months. These concern the decoupling of monetary policies on both sides of the Atlantic, political uncertainty in Europe and the worsening of Europe’s economic relations with China.”
What are some of the risks for Q3 2024?
Political instability also remains a concern, especially in the wake of the recent EU elections. Regarding this, S&P Global’s chief EMEA economist, Sylvain Broyer told Euronews, “We can definitely see some political uncertainty extending more from the national consequences of the European Parliament elections, rather than the elections themselves, with the French snap elections being at the top of everyone’s minds.
“They are a source of uncertainty and that can definitely undermine confidence and then make the recovery in investments that we expect in 2025 more fragile.”
Another major risk that could be seen in the next few months is the possibility of escalating EU-China tensions, sparked off mainly due to the EU considering tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, in order to protect and promote European automobiles.
The report says, “In terms of trade, China is Europe’s second most important partner after the US. It accounts for 10% of total EU exports and 22% of EU imports, around half of which are products that are critical to the European economy.”
Coming to how high these tensions could possibly go, Broyer said, “It is obvious that trade relationships between Europe and China are deteriorating and it is very likely that they will get even worse. I don’t think that this will escalate to a full-blown trade war. I also don’t expect the EU-China trade relations to worsen as much as the US-China trade relations.
This is because the European economy and the Chinese economy are highly interdependent and the respective supply chains are much more intertwined than China is with the US supply chain. For instance, Europe is definitely reliant on China for the import of critical products, such as solar panels, necessary for the green transition, but China is also very dependent on European technology, not just for cars, but also for other transport equipment and electronics.
Almost 15% of the value added by European companies to electronics is exported to China, so that shows the degree of interconnectedness.”
There has also been an increasing risk of more European companies leaving the continent’s biggest stock exchanges in order to list elsewhere, in the US or in Asia.
“This is definitely a sign that European financial markets are too fragmented, too national, too expensive for issuers and for retail investors. To cut a long story short, Europe needs to move forward on the Capital Markets Union, and that is definitely a top priority for the next commission”, says Broyer.
Similarly, he also believes that streamlining financial and other regulations is key, to make sure that European companies are actually supported and empowered to meet the green transition goals.
Coming to what the EU can do to attract more investment in the continent, as well as retain companies wishing to leave for the US and other markets, Broyer emphasises that this is not just a case of Europe wanting to win over external competition. It is also about the continent returning to its own previous higher productivity levels, seen in the last few years.
There could also be a few challenges for the ECB to continue on its rate-cutting path in the near future, according to Broyer.
“The needle of the ECB is inflation and the central bank needs to see more progress on wage growth and the most domestic parts of core inflation, in the services prices. Another element which is becoming more and more obvious is the Fed. The longer the Fed waits and doesn’t deliver much guidance on when and by how much it will start cutting rates, the more it is a problem for the ECB to cut rates further.”
Broyer highlights that this decoupling in monetary policy between the ECB and the US Federal Reserve became increasingly obvious in the first three months of the year.
“European investors have already shifted $50 billion into the US treasury market and probably, it will accelerate in the second and third quarter, so that’s definitely one limitation for the ECB, even if this issue of decoupling monetary policy is a smaller one for central banks generally,” he said.
Why is Spain expected to see strong growth this year?
The Spanish economy is expected to grow more than Germany in Q3, for a variety of reasons. The report emphasises: “Lower energy costs helped the German economy to emerge from recession in the first quarter of 2024, thanks to a recovery in production in energy-intensive sectors such as the chemicals industry. However, the German economy still lags other large European economies in terms of growth.
“Spain, noticeably, continues to beat expectations, with GDP growth accelerating for the third consecutive quarter to 0.7% quarter-on-quarter. The post-pandemic normalisation of tourism is not the only reason for this. Industrial production is continuously expanding in Spain. Last year, consumer spending was the main driver of growth, adding one percentage point of a 2.5 percentage-point increase in Spain’s GDP.
“Second-round effects on core inflation have also been more muted in Spain than in many other countries. Stronger employment growth, stimulated by labour market reforms aimed at replacing limited-term employment contracts with open-ended ones, is another explanation. The dynamism in employment does not hinder productivity growth, in contrast to the other three major economies of the Eurozone, Germany, France and Italy.”
Finance
RFSD board approves financial assurances, reviews annual audit
The Roaring Fork School District Board of Education approved its annual financial accreditation assurances and reviewed the district’s 2024-25 audited financial statements during its meeting on Wednesday, according to a district news release.
The audit, presented by McMahan and Associates, found the district’s overall financial position to be stable and identified areas for continued improvement in internal controls and financial processes. The district’s General Fund balance remains above minimum levels required by board policy.
Chief Financial Officer Christy Chicoine said the audit reflects progress following prior concerns identified in earlier reviews.
“We have made significant improvements compared to the prior year’s audit as a Finance Department, and I am grateful for the finance team’s commitment towards those improvements as demonstrated in this audit,” Chicoine said. “While we still have work to do to continue to sustain and enhance the district’s fiscal management, the audit report indicates we are clearly headed in the right direction.”
Superintendent Anna Cole said the findings validate work undertaken over the past two years to rebuild internal systems and improve transparency.
“Over the past two years, our teams have worked diligently and transparently to rebuild internal financial systems that left the district at risk,” Cole said. “The outcomes of this audit are evidence that we are on track.”
Cole said the timing of the audit is significant as the district begins developing its budget for the 2026-27 school year and faces mounting external pressures.
“We couldn’t have stabilized internal systems at a better time,” she said. “As we begin the budgeting process for the 26/27 school year, we face external challenges like declining enrollment, instability of state and federal funding, and a rising cost of living that is outpacing staff and teacher salaries. This audit is an important confirmation that our finances are in order as we prepare to navigate oncoming challenges.”
Board President Lindsay DeFrates said the board is better positioned to plan ahead following the audit’s conclusions.
“We are grateful for the leadership of Chief Chicoine and the hard work of the district finance and human resources teams,” DeFrates said. “We are now in a much better place financially and will move forward with clarity, transparency and accountability, able to better navigate the challenges to come.”
Finance
UK’s Former Finance Minister George Osborne Joins Coinbase – Coinspeaker
Key Notes
- Former UK finance minister George Osborne is joining Coinbase’s Global Advisory Council.
- Osborne will focus on crypto regulation, stablecoins, and tokenized assets across the UK and EU.
- The exchange is also expanding beyond crypto trading as it steps into 2026.
Coinbase has appointed former UK finance minister George Osborne as chair of its Global Advisory Council. It is clear that the American crypto exchange wants to deepen its influence with governments outside the United States.
Earlier this week, Coinbase tested the waters in India as its deal to acquire a minority stake in local crypto trading platform CoinDCX was approved by the Competition Commission of India.
https://twitter.com/CCI_India/status/2000905244080034292
Coinbase Expands Policy Reach Beyond the US
Coinbase confirmed that Osborne will take a more active role in advising on government engagement worldwide, with a focus on Britain and the European Union.
Osborne, who first joined Coinbase as an adviser in January 2024, will be based in London. He will work closely with policymakers on issues related to crypto regulation, stablecoins, and tokenized assets.
Coinbase’s chief policy officer Faryar Shirzad said the crypto exchange has already become a powerful lobbying force outside the US. In the UK, the company is pushing for clearer rules on tax treatment, stablecoin payments, and the use of tokenized assets in capital markets.
Osborne’s Background
Osborne served as the UK’s finance minister from 2010 until 2016, stepping down after the Brexit referendum. Since leaving politics, he has built a broad private-sector portfolio.
He currently chairs the British Museum, is a partner at investment bank Robey Warshaw, and leads Lingotto Investment Management.
Just days before the Coinbase announcement, OpenAI named Osborne to support its overseas data centre expansion under its global infrastructure program. His appointment to Coinbase adds crypto and blockchain policy to an already wide-ranging list of responsibilities.
Expansion Across Crypto
According to an earlier report, at its recent System Update event, Coinbase revealed plans to expand into stock trading, prediction markets, custom stablecoins, tokenization platforms, and AI-powered investment advisers.
Coinbase has already launched stock trading and prediction markets on its platform and now rivals firms such as Robinhood and eToro. The exchange has also partnered with Kalshi to offer markets tied to real-world events such as sports, elections, and economic data.
The exchange’s long-term goal is to become an all-in-one financial platform that operates around the clock.
Meanwhile, Deutsche Bank recently initiated coverage with a buy rating, according to CNBC. Analysts expect the company’s broader new everything-in-one strategy to reduce its dependence on crypto trading volumes as it scales into 2026.
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Disclaimer: Coinspeaker is committed to providing unbiased and transparent reporting. This article aims to deliver accurate and timely information but should not be taken as financial or investment advice. Since market conditions can change rapidly, we encourage you to verify information on your own and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content.
A crypto journalist with over 5 years of experience in the industry, Parth has worked with major media outlets in the crypto and finance world, gathering experience and expertise in the space after surviving bear and bull markets over the years. Parth is also an author of 4 self-published books.
Parth Dubey on LinkedIn
Finance
Equipment finance outlook optimistic as legislation, investment bolster industry
After difficulties this year, next year looks to be better for the equipment finance industry as government legislation and investment in data centers and AI provide opportunities for financiers.
The U.S. economy heads into 2026 resilient, with real gross domestic product growth of 1.8% and a 6.2% increase in equipment and software investment, according to the 2026 Equipment Leasing & Finance U.S. Economic Outlook, released today by the Equipment Leasing and Finance Foundation. Strong equipment demand, AI-driven capital spending and equity market strength should drive growth for the industry.
Rather than a typical temporary cyclical downturn, after 2025 the equipment industry faces a systemic change, Michael Sharov, a partner in consulting firm Oliver Wyman’s Transportation and Advanced Industrials practice, told Equipment Finance News. Evolving channels, customer fragmentation, labor shortages, and digital and supplier realignment will drive change and create opportunities for dealers, lenders and OEMs.
“Systemic change is going to happen, but the industries are not going to fall apart.” — Michael Sharov, transportation and advanced industrial partner, Oliver Wyman
The equipment industry can still prosper because they serve “essential use” industries such as food, infrastructure and materials, “so there is high confidence in recovery, as long as everyone does not hunker down, but uses this downturn,” he said.
Amid restructuring, lenders face battles around asset transparency, uptime and service capacity, changing underwriting factors, longer trade cycles and elevated importance of used equipment, even with the strong long-term outlook, Sharov said.
In industries such as transportation, mergers and acquisitions will allow stronger players to pick up clients as capacity shifts across the industry, Anthony Sasso, head of TD Equipment Finance and senior vice president at TD Bank, told EFN.
“There are more opportunities for companies to pick up good clients for those companies that are financially sound and well-heeled,” he said. “We’re seeing that today.”
Equipment finance industry set for growth
Meanwhile, the equipment finance industry appears set for growth in 2026 alongside the U.S. economy’s recovery following a year plagued by economic uncertainty, Cedric Chehab, chief economist at economic research firm BMI, said during a Dec. 11 webinar.
Factors supporting industry growth include fiscal stimulus and bonus depreciation because of the One, Big, Beautiful Bill Act, additional Federal Reserve rate cuts that are anticipated, resilient corporate profitability and earnings, and especially, continued investment in AI and data centers, which could affect the economy on multiple levels, Chehab said.
“When you combine the huge strengths of AI and the software around AI and the LLMs and how they interact with machines and robotics, they could boost productivity even further,” he said. “Many economies, and in particular the U.S. economy, are pursuing aggressive industrial policy, driving investment in cutting-edge technology, which will not only foster greater competition to a degree, but really accelerate the pace of development of these technologies.”
Deductions, depreciation under OBBBA
A full year under the One Big, Beautiful Bill Act, which was signed by President Donald Trump on July 4, should spur equipment investment, especially for the equipment sectors in need of recovery, according to a Nov. 19 Wells Fargo research note.
“By making bonus depreciation permanent, firms can fully expense capital equipment, machinery and qualifying real estate improvements,” according to the note. “This change, along with other tax incentives, reduced policy uncertainty and lower borrowing rates, should provide support to investment growth next year and keep the CapEx cycle rolling.”
While increased deductions, bonus depreciation and financing can improve liquidity to help pay for replacement assets, weak trucking and finance fundamentals mean the incentives alone may not be enough to drive new equipment purchases, TD’s Sasso said.
“That’s probably one of the areas that, if you see an uptick in that, it may promote more CapEx spending, and this not only applies to the trucking vertical, but it’s for a number of other verticals,” he said. “If you see more CapEx spend, then you’d see the financing go along with that, and that’s where those benefits would kick in.”
Data centers boost construction
Investment in data centers and technology is also expected to continue in 2026, according to the Wells Fargo note.
“The race to build out the next generation of AI capabilities with the latest information processing equipment, software and new data centers has led capital spending to charge ahead despite elevated policy uncertainty,” according to the note. “But this concentration in tech spending glosses over undeniable weakness in more traditional CapEx categories, such as transportation equipment and commercial construction.”


Data centers also require significant capital, with financing for U.S. data centers projected to reach $60 billion in 2025, according to a Dec. 11 release from the Equipment Leasing and Finance Foundation focused on data centers.
In the wider construction segment, sentiment toward growth remains cautious in some regions, with nearly half of construction firms in the Minneapolis Federal Reserve region feeling more pessimistic than they did in mid-2025, Erick Luna, director of regional outreach for the region, said during a Dec. 12 webinar.
“Some of the same challenges showed up in this change of outlook, a slowdown in projects, reduced RFPs, tariffs, etc.,” he said. “Almost half [of the firms] expected backlogs to keep contracting, and in turn, [fewer] projects will be completed and so on.”
Equipment industry faces more challenges
Meanwhile, executives rated the state of the industrials market a 5.7 out of 10, down from 8 last year, according to Oliver Wyman’s 2025 State of Industrial Goods North America, Non-Road report, released on Dec. 3. The report surveyed 105 equipment manufacturer executives in conjunction with the Association of Equipment Manufacturers.
Looking ahead, indicators such as farm receipts, construction activity, residential starts and large data center projects will be central to assessing demand across agriculture and construction, Nate Savona, a partner in Oliver Wyman’s Transportation and Advanced Industrials practice, told EFN.
“What we got from the members that we worked with who are living and breathing the industry is there is cautious optimism, but they’re not feeling great right now. The original sentiment for the [State of Industrial Goods] report was done six months ago or so, and then we revisited the question in the past month, and the sentiment was the same, so it hasn’t gotten better yet.” — Nate Savona, transportation and advanced industrial partner, Oliver Wyman
While the outlook for 2026 does come with optimism, BMI’s Chehab pointed to several risk factors, including:
- A weakening labor market;
- Higher-than-expected inflation;
- Limited Fed easing due to inflation;
- Financial market volatility due to a potential AI bubble;
- Escalating trade tensions; and
- Political uncertainty tied to midterm elections.
Despite the challenges, there’s cautious optimism for 2026, with the potential rebound of the trucking industry on the back of improving values serving as a bellwether for the broader economy, TD’s Sasso said.
“When you look at values, we may be in a trough right now where we’ve hit the bottom, and hopefully those valuations, we’re going to see coming back up,” he said. “Overall, there’s much more optimism going into 2026, and hopefully that is the case that would benefit all businesses, including ours.”
Check out our exclusive industry data here.
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