Finance
Two big homebuilders missed Wall Street estimates on a key metric — here's why
Housing demand has been hard to forecast even as mortgage rates have declined. Just take a look at homebuilders’ quarterly results so far this earnings season.
Two of America’s largest homebuilders, Lennar (LEN) and KB Home (KBH), reported third quarter net new home orders that have fallen short of Wall Street expectations.
Net new orders represent the number of new sales contracts that have been finalized and signed by buyers minus customer home order cancellations booked for the period. Investors and analysts pay close attention to this figure because its a leading indicator for homebuilders on housing activity.
Lennar, the nation’s second-largest homebuilder, said last month that its net new orders for the quarterly period ending Aug. 31 rose 4.7% from the prior year to 20,587. That fell short of analysts’ forecasts of 20,827 orders, per Bloomberg data.
Homebuilder KB Home also reported in September that net orders for the period ending Aug. 31 were a disappointment. The builder said orders fell 0.4% from the prior year to 3,085, lower than analysts’ estimates of 3,345 orders.
Part of the reason for the misses is that it’s been hard to determine how much recent mortgage rate movements would affect buyer demand. Mortgage rates have stayed stuck between 6% and 7% this year. And in June, rates were toggling just above or below 7%.
Read more: When will mortgage rates go down? A look at 2024 and 2025.
“Maybe shame on us for not modeling it more clearly, but June and July were clearly challenging months,” John Lovallo, senior equity research analyst at UBS, told Yahoo Finance in an interview.
From a buyer’s perspective, “there was uncertainty about where rates were going. There was uncertainty about where the economy and the Fed were going, and there was growing uncertainty about the election,” Lovallo added.
The uncertainty doesn’t appear to be going away despite the Federal Reserve’s jumbo interest rate cut in September. Mortgage rates had already been on the decline as investors had bet on a rate reduction ahead.
It’s unclear how much they’ll fall. Data from Freddie Mac shows the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate jumped by 20 basis points to 6.32% last week. This marks the biggest week-over-week increase since April.
Read more: Is this a good time to buy a house?
Goldman Sachs revised its year-end forecasts in early October for 30-year conforming mortgage rates, lowering them to 6% for this year and 6.05% for 2025, down from the previous estimates of 6.5% and 6.1%.
The firm’s strategists said in the note that there’s “limited room” for major declines. They think “the decline in mortgage rates has largely run its course.”
Lovallo warned that it’s highly likely that the other homebuilders will report misses on Q3 net orders due to rate volatility this summer. More builders are gearing up to report quarterly earnings in the next few weeks with PulteGroup (PHM) and NVR (NVR) reporting on Oct. 22 and DR Horton (DHI) on Oct. 29.
Dani Romero is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on X @daniromerotv.
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Finance
This Is the Best Thing to Do With Your 2026 Military Pay Raise
Editor’s note: This is the fourth installment of New Year, New You, a weeklong look at your financial health headed into 2026.
The military’s regularly occurring pay raises provide an opportunity that many civilians only dream of. Not only do the annual percentage increases troops receive each January provide frequent chances to rebalance financial priorities — savings vs. current standard of living — so do time-in-service increases for every two years of military service, not to mention promotions.
Two experts in military pay and personal finance — a retired admiral and a retired general, each at the head of their respective military mutual aid associations — advised taking a similarly predictable approach to managing each new raise:
Cut it in half.
In one variation of the strategy, a service member simply adds to their savings: whatever it is they prioritize. In the other, consistent increases in retirement contributions soon add up to a desirable threshold.
Rainy Day Fund
The active military’s 3.8% pay raise in 2026 came in a percentage point higher than retirees and disabled veterans received, meaning troops “should be able to afford the market basket of goods that the average American is afforded,” said Michael Meese, a retired Army brigadier general and president of Armed Forces Mutual.
While the veterans’ lower rate relies exclusively on the rate of inflation, Congress has the option to offer more; and in doing so is making up for recent years when the pay raise didn’t keep up with unusually high inflation, Meese said.
“So this is helping us catch up a little bit.”
He also speculated that the government shutdown “upset a lot of people” and that widespread support of the 3.8% raise across party lines and in both houses of Congress showed “that it has confidence in the military and wants to take care of the military and restore government credibility with service men and women,” Meese said.
His suggestion for managing pay raises:
“If you’ve been living already without the pay raise and now you see this pay raise, if you can,” Meese advised, “I always said … you should save half and spend half,” Meese said. “That way, you don’t instantly increase your spending habits just because you see more money at the end of the month.”
A service member who makes only $1,000 every two weeks, for example, gets another $38 every two weeks starting this month. Put $19 into savings, and you can put the other $19 toward “beer and pizza or whatever you’re going to do,” Meese said.
“That way you’re putting money away for a rainy day,” he said — to help prepare for a vacation, for example, “so you’re not putting those on a credit card.” If you set aside only $25 more per pay period, “at the end of the year, you’ve got an extra $300 in there, and that may be great for Christmas vacation or Christmas presents or something like that.”
Retirement Strategy
Brian Luther, retired rear admiral and the president and chief executive officer of Navy Mutual, recognizes that “personal finance is personal” — in other words, “every situation is different.” Nevertheless, he insists that “everyone should have a plan” that includes:
- What your cash flow is
- Where your money is going
- Where you need to go in the future
But even if you don’t know a lot of those details, Luther said, the most important thing:
Luther also advised an approach based on cutting the 3.8% pay raise in half, keeping half for expenses and putting the other half into the Thrift Savings Plan. Then “that pay will work for you until you need it in retirement,” Luther said. With every subsequent increase, put half into the TSP until you’re setting aside a full 15% of your pay.
For a relatively young service member, “Once you hit 15%, and [with] the 5% match from the government, that’s enough for your future,” Luther said.
Previously in this series:
Part 1: 2026 Guide to Pay and Allowances for Military Service Members, Veterans and Retirees
Part 2: Understanding All the Deductions on Your 2026 Military Leave and Earnings Statements
Part 3: Should You Let the Military Set Aside Allotments from Your Pay?
Get the Latest Financial Tips
Whether you’re trying to balance your budget, build up your credit, select a good life insurance program or are gearing up for a home purchase, Military.com has you covered. Subscribe to Military.com and get the latest military benefit updates and tips delivered straight to your inbox.
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