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The case for a 'Magnificent 7' resurgence: Morning Brief

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The case for a 'Magnificent 7' resurgence: Morning Brief

This is The Takeaway from today’s Morning Brief, which you can sign up to receive in your inbox every morning along with:

The broadening of the stock market rally has become a crucial theme during the second half of 2024.

Amid the start of rate cuts — and economic data that’s showed the US economy remains in better shape than initially feared — the recent push to new record highs has largely been about companies not named Apple (AAPL), Alphabet (GOOGL, GOOG), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Meta (META), Tesla (TSLA), or Nvidia (NVDA).

But the debate over whether the market’s next leg higher will be led by just a few large tech companies — as was the case in 2023 and the early part of 2024 — continues to roll on among investors.

In a note on Friday, data from FactSet showed that earnings for the 493 companies in the S&P 500 outside the “Magnificent Seven” are expected to grow by an average of more than 13% over the next five quarters. Conversely, the Magnificent Seven are expected to see earnings grow by an average of nearly 19% over the same time period.

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Notably, this represents a pickup in growth for the 493 from 2024 and a notch lower for the Magnificent Seven. This more positive trend in the 493 is one of the reasons strategists have called for a continued broadening out of the rally. But as our chart below shows, the difference in trend growth is a narrowing race.

And some believe Big Tech could still be the winner.

“The Mag 7 are still expected to post superior (and presumably more reliable) earnings growth than the rest of the index,” DataTrek co-founder Nicholas Colas said.

Colas noted that this data suggests tech “should begin to play catchup into the end of the year,” as the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (^NDX) has underperformed the S&P 500 over the past month and throughout 2024.

“Going forward, the path to outperformance will be assessing whether Big Tech or the rest of the S&P 500 will exhibit better earnings momentum,” Colas wrote. “If one believes that US GDP growth can be +3% in 2025, then the S&P 493 is likely the better bet. Our own view is that growth will be more modest, giving the edge to Big Tech.”

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Part of the tech revival may already be playing out. Nvidia has soared to a fresh record high over the past month, its first since June. Apple stock closed at a record high of $235 per share on Friday and added to those gains on Monday. Netflix (NFLX), the first of the large tech giants to report earnings, saw a massive rally in its stock to a fresh record high after another impressive round of earnings.

That move in the streaming giant is perhaps the most illuminating when considering the case for Big Tech to lead the market. Even Netflix, which had already seen its stock rise more than 50% on the year before earnings, managed to surprise Wall Street to the upside.

Perhaps this serves as an early reminder that while growth in tech is “expected” to slow from its rapid pace over the past year, that doesn’t mean there can’t be upside surprises — or that it still can’t outperform. You don’t need to look beyond the past 18 months of many tech earnings reports coming in better than expected for the empirical evidence.

Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer.

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Wall Street fears Trump’s tariffs will wipe out 2024’s stock market gains

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Wall Street fears Trump’s tariffs will wipe out 2024’s stock market gains

Stocks sank on Friday as the reality of an all-out trade war following President Trump’s sweeping tariffs set in, fueling Wall Street strategists’ worst fears about how far the S&P 500 (^GSPC) could fall in 2025.

Amid a $2.5 trillion wipeout in markets on Thursday, strategists had warned stock indexes could face further downside should the trade war escalate. On Friday morning, that fear became a reality.

Stock losses accelerated before the bell after China said on Friday it would impose additional tariffs of 34% on all US products from April 10 — matching the extra 34% duties imposed by Trump on Wednesday.

By 11 a.m. ET, The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) pulled back 3.5%, or about 1,400 points, on pace to close in correction territory. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) sank about 3.8% as the broad-based benchmark was headed for its worst week since 2020. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) also dropped 4.2%.

Friday’s losses extended a $2.5 trillion wipeout as markets digested President Trump’s launch of the most aggressive tariff plan in a century.

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SNP – Free Realtime Quote USD

As of 12:38:15 PM EDT. Market Open.

^GSPC ^DJI ^IXIC

“If high tariff rates stay in place, negotiations are drawn out over a multi-month period and additional measures are taken with key trading partners, the risk of a recession/our bear case is likely to rise more materially,” Morgan Stanley chief investment officer Mike Wilson wrote in a note to clients on Thursday night. Wilson’s bear case projects the S&P 500 to end at 4,600, a level not seen on the benchmark index since December 2023.

The recent move in markets has already pushed some strategists to become less confident in stocks’ ability to rebound from the recent crash. In a note early Friday morning before China’s reciprocal tariffs were announced, RBC Capital Markets head of US equity strategy Lori Calvasina lowered her year-end S&P 500 target to 5,550 from a prior target of 6,200. That target of 6,200 had already been lowered from 6,600 less than a month ago.

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“Our old bear case for the index this year has become our new base case,” Calvasina wrote.

As of Friday morning, it doesn’t appear the administration is backing down from its firm tariff stance. In a Truth Social post on Friday, Trump wrote, “MY POLICIES WILL NEVER CHANGE. THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO GET RICH, RICHER THAN EVER BEFORE!!!”

At this point, with the administration holding firm and other trade partners retaliating rather than negotiating, some on Wall Street don’t see the tariff turmoil ending anytime soon.

Read more: What Trump’s tariffs mean for the economy and your wallet

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Luzerne County study commission approves budget/finance recommendations

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Luzerne County study commission approves budget/finance recommendations

Luzerne County’s Government Study Commission approved several budget and finance recommendations Thursday.

The citizen commission is drafting a revised county home rule charter for voters to consider in November.

One recommendation would add a restriction to the county manager’s authority to transfer budgeted funds within departments.

The proposed new wording would not allow such transfers if the funds are used to create a new position or increase the salary for any position above the annual amount budgeted for that year.

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Other than this new restriction, the manager would retain authority to make budget transfers, with the requirement to notify council and the controller within five days after a transfer is made.

Commission member Stephen J. Urban pushed for the transfer restriction, saying at a meeting last month the manager should be required to return to council for approval to increase transparency and council involvement in staffing changes that impact future budgets.

“You want to give the manager the flexibility to create positions, but you also have to give that mutual respect to council for controlling the budget and keeping that check and balance in play that council has to make sure the dollars are there and allocated,” Urban said.

All seven commission members approved the restriction Thursday.

Another recommendation approved Thursday would extend the deadline for annual county audits from six months to eight months following the close of a fiscal year.

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Plains Township resident Gerald Cross, who had served as a consultant for drafters of the current charter, recommended the audit deadline extension earlier this year. Cross told the commission he heard complaints from auditors that the six-month deadline is too aggressive, particularly for a county this size.

A date related to the county’s annual budget adoption also would be altered in Thursday’s recommendations.

The charter says the budget must be approved between Nov. 15 and Dec. 15. The commission kept the Dec. 15 deadline but eliminated the window.

Commission member Tim McGinley said council may be in a position to approve the budget before Nov. 15, particularly in years when there is not a tax increase.

Finally, the commission recommended wording requiring “the creation and/or maintenance of a county reserve fund” as part of the county’s annual long-range operational, fiscal and capital plan.

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Reach Jennifer Learn-Andes at 570-991-6388 or on Twitter @TLJenLearnAndes.

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Stock market today: S&P 500, Nasdaq plunge, Dow drops 1,200 points as Trump’s tariffs rip through global markets

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Stock market today: S&P 500, Nasdaq plunge, Dow drops 1,200 points as Trump’s tariffs rip through global markets

Apple (AAPL) shares fell over 7% before the bell, still leading the sell-off in tech stocks that followed Trump’s bigger-than-expected tariffs.

Apple’s overseas production hubs are particularly vulnerable, given the iPhone maker’s presence in China, Vietnam, and India. These countries will face tariffs of 34%, 46%, and 26%, respectively, once additional levies are taken into account.

“Apple produces basically all their iPhones in China, and the question will be around exceptions and exemptions on this tariff policy if those companies are building more operations, factories, and plants in the US like Apple announced in February,” Wedbush analyst Dan Ives said in a note to clients on Wednesday.

Elsewhere in techs, chip stocks should also face significant pressure, with Nvidia (NVDA) and others exposed to China and Taiwan supply chains.

“The worry will be around pricing and margin impacts along with what this means for the global supply chain looking forward,” Ives said.

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For now, the analyst continues to believe major negotiations will happen over the coming months as companies attempt to navigate “this new world of tariffs.” Until then, he warned, “tech stocks will clearly be under major pressure.”

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