Finance
Recession? Really? Come on…: Morning Brief
This is The Takeaway from today’s Morning Brief, which you can sign up to receive in your inbox every morning along with:
And just like that, everyone is a recession expert.
Two weeks ago, most self-proclaimed finance experts hadn’t uttered the word recession since it was fashionable in late 2022/early 2023.
From late July to early August, the prevailing sentiment of those seemingly in the know was 1) Nvidia (NVDA) shares were due for another 50% move after earnings on Aug. 28; 2) a 10% year-end rally for the S&P 500; and 3) a 100% move in Nvidia’s stock price in 2025.
Yet here we are, with the pros scaring the heck out of everyone the past week on the potential for a recession after a “bad” jobs report last Friday. Two top Wall Street banks raised their recession probabilities this week, for example.
These pros have voiced their concerns on TV, social media, and in research reports, but they also conveyed them to global trading desks. Markets were pushed into choppy seas as crowded AI trades such as AMD (AMD) have been dumped, with no nod to their underlying fundamentals.
All this recession talk feels like BS to me, an excuse to shake out the average investor so institutional players could get back into high-flying names at cheaper prices. Everyone does know that a recession often means negative economic growth, right? Or a significant slowdown in the economy that lasts quarters or even years?
So the US economy is going to go from 2.8% second quarter GDP growth and a long period of steady expansion to slightly negative growth or worse sometime within the next six months? An economy still creating a good clip of jobs each month is going to begin producing job losses in the near future?
Where is the evidence to support this? What’s the trigger for it? Don’t hit me up on X, formerly Twitter, and say it’s interest rates because the economy has been doing just fine during this high rate period.
Lost in recession BS this week was an ISM services report, which includes data on business activity, new orders, employment, and supplier deliveries. The index clocked in at 51.4%, up from 48.8% in June.
Numbers over 50% are seen as positive for the economy. Most companies in the report said business was either flat or expanding gradually.
Then, initial jobless claims totaled a seasonally adjusted 233,000 for the week — a drop of 17,000. The Street was looking for a print of around 240,000.
Corporate earnings season has gone quite well too. The majority of well-known public companies are easily beating sales and profit forecasts, not shocking the masses with giant misses. Outlooks have been solid.
That’s recessionary? Come on!
Now, I am not going to sit here and blow smoke and say everything is peachy. Many households are struggling to make ends meet because of sticky inflation, something I was reminded of when chatting with P&G’s (PG) CEO Jon Moeller a week ago.
I think the interview by Yahoo Finance’s Brooke DiPalma at the NYSE with Dine Brands (DIN) CEO John Peyton was also eye-opening on this front.
“It’s a value war. It’s a fight for share of wallet. … At a time when our target guest is dining out less, we have to make sure that when they do choose to dine out — IHOP or Applebee’s or Fuzzy’s are their first choice,” Peyton said.
The same goes for DiPalma’s exclusive interview with Molson Coors (TAP) CEO Gavin Hattersley.
“Consumers [are] making different pack sizes choices,” Hattersley said. He said this behavior has been going on “for a while” and is “pretty consistent through through Q2.”
Conversations I had this past week with top leaders further shed light on these macro challenges.
Disney (DIS) CFO Hugh Johnston told me demand at its theme parks tailed off in the final few weeks of the quarter. The company sees this slowdown persisting for the next few quarters.
“We certainly see consumers behaving in a way — I wouldn’t call it recessionary necessarily — they’re watching their pennies a little bit more,” Johnston said. Lost in the sauce, though, was a strong quarter for Disney’s streaming businesses. In a recession, people usually cut unnecessary expenses.
Ralph Lauren (RL) CEO Patrice Louvet told me (video above) this when I asked him if the consumer is behaving recessionary: “I think it’s pretty clear wherever you look that the overall consumer is being pressured by the cumulative effect of inflationary pressures and interest rates. As far as our core consumer is concerned, we actually find them to be very resilient.”
The company still notched sales growth in its North American stores.
All in all, you don’t get the sense the economy has already jumped over a cliff and is falling to the ground. As a result, it’s hard to justify some of these severe down days we have witnessed in markets this week.
What appears to be unfolding is a gradual cooling in the economy that could prove short-lived, especially if the Fed cuts rates, as Cognizant (CTSH) CEO Ravi Kumar told me on my Opening Bid podcast this week.
Labor market developments of late “seem more consistent with post-reopening normalization and gradual rates drag than any current shock or accelerating weakness but the risk is present,” said 22V Research strategist Peter Williams in a note this week.
I think that’s a fair assessment. What’s not fair is all this recession hysteria talk.
Three times each week, I field insight-filled conversations with the biggest names in business and markets on my Opening Bid podcast. Find more episodes on our video hub. Watch on your preferred streaming service. Or listen and subscribe on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you find your favorite podcasts.
In the below Opening Bid episode, Trump’s former nominee to the Federal Reserve Judy Shelton shares why the Fed should be focused on 0% inflation.
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Finance
IMF, World Bank say restoring relations with Venezuela, recognizing interim government
The IMF and World Bank said Thursday they are restoring relations with Venezuela, further legitimizing the interim government and opening new doors to financial support.
“Guided by the views of International Monetary Fund members representing a majority of the IMF’s total voting power, and consistent with long standing practice, the Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva today announced that the IMF is now dealing with the Government of Venezuela, under the administration of acting President Delcy Rodriguez,” it said in a statement.
Over recent days, the Fund polled its members on whether they saw Rodriguez as the legitimate leader of Venezuela.
The World Bank quickly followed the Fund in recognizing the Rodriguez government, saying in a statement, “Guided by the outcome of the IMF’s polling process, the World Bank Group today announced that it is resuming dealings with the Government of Venezuela, under the administration of acting President Delcy Rodríguez.”
Recognition of the Rodriguez government by both institutions paves the way them to formally begin economic data-gathering, provide technical advice, and to potentially offer financial support to the government, if Venezuela were to ask for it.
Relations between the financial institutions and Venezuela broke down in March 2019 when the Fund recognized the country’s opposition — which controlled parliament — as the legitimate government of the South American country.
Rodriguez was the country’s vice president until early January, when US forces captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in a shock overnight operation. Rodriguez was subsequently made interim president.
Since then, Washington has exerted heavy pressure on the country to open its economy to foreign investment — especially its energy sector.
“Trump frequently and publicly talks about how much he likes Delcy and how closely they’re working together,” Henry Ziemer at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington told AFP. “But the institutional recognition is, I think, an important next step — going beyond the personal to the institutional.”
“It’s important for Delcy’s appearance of legitimacy,” he said.
Beyond the funds that could now flow from the IMF and the World Bank, the institutional recognition could reassure foreign private investors who were anxious about taking bets on the country.
“I think as many green lights is good, I should say necessary for foreign direct investment to start flowing into Venezuela,” Ziemer said, while noting that the security situation was still fragile.
Finance
Bank of America’s 18,000 financial advisors just got a new AI tool as the company posts a record quarter | Fortune
Good morning. Bank of America posted its strongest earnings in nearly two decades, and CFO Alastair Borthwick says AI is becoming key to the bank’s performance.
The bank reported on Wednesday that Q1 2026 net income was $8.6 billion, with earnings per share up 25% to $1.11, which is the highest level in almost 20 years. On a media call, Borthwick pointed to AI as an increasingly important driver, highlighting a new internal tool for financial advisors.
The Meeting Journey tool helps advisors prepare for client meetings by pulling together key information. BofA has about 18,000 financial advisors across its wealth management platform, serving millions of clients, he said. Before meeting with a client, advisors regularly need to update themselves with a wide range of information such as client history, recent activity, and CIO guidance, he explained.
The tool searches and consolidates client relationship insights and recent activity into ready-to-use prep materials and, with client consent, acts as an AI notetaker during virtual meetings. It also summarizes meeting decisions and next steps based on those notes. The goal is to cut down hours of manual prep and free advisors to focus on client relationships.
“Efforts like this translate into results,” Borthwick said, pointing to record first-quarter revenue and improved cost control.
Preparing for meetings once meant pulling data from multiple systems; now much of that work is automated, he said. “Not necessarily the judgment—that can be human,” Borthwick added. The bank invests around $13.5 billion annually in technology, including approximately $4 billion on new initiatives like AI.
More broadly, BofA’s strong quarter was driven by several factors:
—Net interest income rose 9% to $15.9 billion as loan and deposit growth accelerated.
—Trading revenue hit $6.3 billion—its best in roughly 15 years—boosted by a record high 30% jump in equities.
—Investment banking fees climbed 21% to $1.8 billion on a solid M&A market.
—Asset management fees grew 15% to $4.2 billion.
—Productivity gains, including from AI, helped the company maintain cost discipline and improve its efficiency ratio by 170 basis points to 61%.
With revenues outpacing expenses, BofA achieved its third consecutive quarter of operating leverage at 2.9%. This week, Morningstar raised its fair value estimate for BofA to $65 per share, up from $58.
Amid ongoing uncertainty around geopolitics, rates, and credit, Borthwick said the bank’s data shows a resilient U.S. consumer. Unemployment remains at around 4.3%, supporting spending, while a recent rise in gas outlays hasn’t materially changed the broader picture, he said. “You can see that in our asset quality,” he added.
Sheryl Estrada
sheryl.estrada@fortune.com
Leaderboard
Christopher Filiaggi was appointed interim CFO of Corebridge Financial, Inc. (NYSE: CRBG), effective April 24. Filiaggi, chief accounting officer of Corebridge since 2023, will serve as interim CFO while the company prepares for its planned merger with Equitable Holdings, Inc. This appointment follows the previously announced transition of CFO Elias Habayeb. Prior to his current role, Filiaggi held finance leadership positions with Corebridge and American International Group, Inc.
Sean McCabe was appointed CFO of Cineverse, an entertainment technology company (Nasdaq: CNVS), effective April 20. He succeeds Mark Lindsey, with whom the company is in discussions to transition into a senior financial consulting role. McCabe previously served as VP and corporate controller at Cineverse in 2023 and 2024. He returns from Freestar, an ad-tech company, where he led accounting and finance teams and worked on mergers and acquisitions, treasury, and capital structure optimization. Before joining Freestar and Cineverse, McCabe held controller positions at Jukin Media, Fulgent Genetics, and National Grid.
Big Deal
BridgeWise’s inaugural “State of AI for Wealth in 2026” report finds that 78% of respondents globally are using AI tools for investment-related queries, with nearly half (45.7%) emerging as power users, consulting AI “always” or “often” when seeking investment information. The global study is based on 2,100 respondents across 19 countries.
The report also introduces a Global Wealth AI Optimism Index, a proprietary benchmark that evaluates the 19 included countries through four weighted pillars: adoption (AI usage frequency), confidence (trust in AI accuracy), edge (perceived competitive advantage when using AI for investing), and momentum (intent to replace traditional investment research with AI).
Going deeper
“From wool sneakers to GPUs: Allbirds’ desperate AI pivot and 600% stock surge, explained” is a Fortune article by Phil Wahba.
On Wednesday, Allbirds, a sustainable footwear brand, “announced that it had secured $50 million in financing to turn itself into a tech company with a ‘long-term vision to become a fully integrated GPU-as-a-service (GPUaaS) and AI-native cloud solutions provider’ and that it would change its name to NewBird AI,” Wahba writes. You can read more here.
Overheard
“When people understand how their work drives the company’s value, they act like owners: they innovate, they solve problems, and they stay.”
—Vicente Reynal, chairman, president, and CEO of Ingersoll Rand, writes in a Fortune opinion piece titled “Here’s how employee ownership helped drive more than 8x enterprise value growth.”
Finance
Buyers snap up homes for $200,000 under asking price as ‘fear and mystery’ grips Aussie property
When George Cherchian attended an open home in Sydney’s west recently, he was on the look out for one thing. A key detail would indicate how much competition he would have in vying for the house.
He attended every inspection for the property prior to the scheduled auction date. And when he didn’t see it, the buyers agent knew he was in a good position.
“I went to every single open home, and what I look for there is essentially the same faces. So if I’m seeing your face at every open I go to for one particular property, it tells me that you are just as interested in it as my clients are, or as I am,” he told Yahoo Finance.
“But that wasn’t the case here, we didn’t have any sort of repeat faces.”
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In the end, he put an offer in ahead of the planned auction date. Despite it being considerably lower than the advertised asking price, the vendor ultimately accepted it.
On behalf of the buyer, he secured the Baulkham Hills property for $1.9 million, $200,000 below the $2.1 million asking price.
Cherchian explained that in this particular case the vendor was in a position “where they couldn’t really afford to defer the settlement” as they had to sell because they had committed to buying another property.
But as “caution” grips property markets in Australia’s capital cities thanks to rising interest rates, higher fuel prices, ongoing uncertainty with the Iran war and impending policy changes around the taxation of investment properties, Cherchian said the sale is emblematic of the opportunities buyers can find right now in a less competitive market.
“Now that there are not as many buyers to contend with, there’s almost a bit of a window of opportunity for those who are able to make a decision,” he told Yahoo Finance.
Overall, he said many buyers in Sydney were showing increased “caution” during so much uncertainty. As a result, “the things that need to transact, they are transacting at a discount”.
Auction clearance rates in Sydney and Melbourne dropped in March, with the most recent results from April showing a clearance rate of just 54 per cent in Sydney, according to Domain, about 10 per cent lower than at the same time last year.
Dwelling prices went backwards in Sydney and Melbourne in the March quarter this year, according to property data giant Cotality. Prices fell 0.6 per cent in Melbourne and 0.2 per cent in Sydney.
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