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Recession? Really? Come on…: Morning Brief

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Recession? Really? Come on…: Morning Brief

This is The Takeaway from today’s Morning Brief, which you can sign up to receive in your inbox every morning along with:

And just like that, everyone is a recession expert.

Two weeks ago, most self-proclaimed finance experts hadn’t uttered the word recession since it was fashionable in late 2022/early 2023.

From late July to early August, the prevailing sentiment of those seemingly in the know was 1) Nvidia (NVDA) shares were due for another 50% move after earnings on Aug. 28; 2) a 10% year-end rally for the S&P 500; and 3) a 100% move in Nvidia’s stock price in 2025.

Yet here we are, with the pros scaring the heck out of everyone the past week on the potential for a recession after a “bad” jobs report last Friday. Two top Wall Street banks raised their recession probabilities this week, for example.

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These pros have voiced their concerns on TV, social media, and in research reports, but they also conveyed them to global trading desks. Markets were pushed into choppy seas as crowded AI trades such as AMD (AMD) have been dumped, with no nod to their underlying fundamentals.

All this recession talk feels like BS to me, an excuse to shake out the average investor so institutional players could get back into high-flying names at cheaper prices. Everyone does know that a recession often means negative economic growth, right? Or a significant slowdown in the economy that lasts quarters or even years?

So the US economy is going to go from 2.8% second quarter GDP growth and a long period of steady expansion to slightly negative growth or worse sometime within the next six months? An economy still creating a good clip of jobs each month is going to begin producing job losses in the near future?

Where is the evidence to support this? What’s the trigger for it? Don’t hit me up on X, formerly Twitter, and say it’s interest rates because the economy has been doing just fine during this high rate period.

Lost in recession BS this week was an ISM services report, which includes data on business activity, new orders, employment, and supplier deliveries. The index clocked in at 51.4%, up from 48.8% in June.

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Numbers over 50% are seen as positive for the economy. Most companies in the report said business was either flat or expanding gradually.

Then, initial jobless claims totaled a seasonally adjusted 233,000 for the week — a drop of 17,000. The Street was looking for a print of around 240,000.

Corporate earnings season has gone quite well too. The majority of well-known public companies are easily beating sales and profit forecasts, not shocking the masses with giant misses. Outlooks have been solid.

That’s recessionary? Come on!

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Now, I am not going to sit here and blow smoke and say everything is peachy. Many households are struggling to make ends meet because of sticky inflation, something I was reminded of when chatting with P&G’s (PG) CEO Jon Moeller a week ago.

I think the interview by Yahoo Finance’s Brooke DiPalma at the NYSE with Dine Brands (DIN) CEO John Peyton was also eye-opening on this front.

“It’s a value war. It’s a fight for share of wallet. … At a time when our target guest is dining out less, we have to make sure that when they do choose to dine out — IHOP or Applebee’s or Fuzzy’s are their first choice,” Peyton said.

The same goes for DiPalma’s exclusive interview with Molson Coors (TAP) CEO Gavin Hattersley.

“Consumers [are] making different pack sizes choices,” Hattersley said. He said this behavior has been going on “for a while” and is “pretty consistent through through Q2.”

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Conversations I had this past week with top leaders further shed light on these macro challenges.

Disney (DIS) CFO Hugh Johnston told me demand at its theme parks tailed off in the final few weeks of the quarter. The company sees this slowdown persisting for the next few quarters.

“We certainly see consumers behaving in a way — I wouldn’t call it recessionary necessarily — they’re watching their pennies a little bit more,” Johnston said. Lost in the sauce, though, was a strong quarter for Disney’s streaming businesses. In a recession, people usually cut unnecessary expenses.

Ralph Lauren (RL) CEO Patrice Louvet told me (video above) this when I asked him if the consumer is behaving recessionary: “I think it’s pretty clear wherever you look that the overall consumer is being pressured by the cumulative effect of inflationary pressures and interest rates. As far as our core consumer is concerned, we actually find them to be very resilient.”

The company still notched sales growth in its North American stores.

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All in all, you don’t get the sense the economy has already jumped over a cliff and is falling to the ground. As a result, it’s hard to justify some of these severe down days we have witnessed in markets this week.

What appears to be unfolding is a gradual cooling in the economy that could prove short-lived, especially if the Fed cuts rates, as Cognizant (CTSH) CEO Ravi Kumar told me on my Opening Bid podcast this week.

Labor market developments of late “seem more consistent with post-reopening normalization and gradual rates drag than any current shock or accelerating weakness but the risk is present,” said 22V Research strategist Peter Williams in a note this week.

I think that’s a fair assessment. What’s not fair is all this recession hysteria talk.

Three times each week, I field insight-filled conversations with the biggest names in business and markets on my Opening Bid podcast. Find more episodes on our video hub. Watch on your preferred streaming service. Or listen and subscribe on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you find your favorite podcasts.

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In the below Opening Bid episode, Trump’s former nominee to the Federal Reserve Judy Shelton shares why the Fed should be focused on 0% inflation.

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Evoke Entertainment Closes $35 Million Production Financing Facility Backed By Major Private Credit Fund

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Evoke Entertainment Closes  Million Production Financing Facility Backed By Major Private Credit Fund

EXCLUSIVE: Evoke Entertainment has closed a senior secured production financing facility of up to $35 million backed by a multi-billion-dollar private credit fund.

While we verified the deal with the lender, they spoke with Deadline on the condition of anonymity, per company policy. The revolving production facility is designed to support Evoke’s expanding slate of independent features, television movies, streaming films, and series — significantly increasing the company’s already high-volume production output across major studios, networks, and streaming platforms.

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Structured around contracted revenue streams, distribution agreements, tax incentives, and the value of Evoke’s existing library and historical production performance, the facility provides the company with flexible, scalable production financing across multiple genres and platforms. Evoke’s lender comes to the partnership with extensive experience in structured finance, asset-backed lending, and entertainment-related investments.

The deal was spearheaded by Evoke Entertainment CEO Stan Spry, who told us, “This financing marks a transformative moment for Evoke. The backing of a major institutional private credit partner gives us the ability to substantially scale our production operations while continuing to focus on commercially driven, cost-efficient content for the global marketplace.”

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The first projects to be financed under Evoke’s facility include a large slate of TV and streaming movies including a Christmas film for Hallmark, a survival thriller for Lifetime, alongside the independent feature films Suburban KingsHomesick, and Bali Hai.

Founded in 2011, and formerly known as Cartel Entertainment, Evoke Entertainment is a full-service management, production, and finance company that produces more than 20 films and series annually across major platforms including Netflix, Hallmark, Lifetime, Tubi, NBC/Peacock, AMC, and Great American Media. Notable past projects include Creepshow (AMC), Day of the Dead (Syfy), Twelve Forever (Netflix), and the upcoming Breaking Bear for Tubi, to name a few.

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Livestock Methane in India: Aligning Livelihoods, Systems, and Finance – CPI

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Livestock Methane in India: Aligning Livelihoods, Systems, and Finance – CPI

Background

India is home to the world’s largest livestock population of 536.76 million, which produces 25% of the world’s milk1. This increase in livestock population leads to increased methane emissions, primarily from enteric fermentation and manure management. As a result, livestock contributes to 58% (BUR 4, 2020) of India’s agricultural methane footprint. However, unlike crop-based emissions, livestock methane is diffuse, biologically driven, and more complex to measure and manage, making it less visible within existing climate finance frameworks.

Current research and policy discussions indicate that while technical mitigation solutions exist through feed improvements and manure management, evidence of their effectiveness in maintaining dairy productivity, animal health, and protecting farmers’ incomes is scattered. This leads to heightened risk perceptions among dairy producers when considering methane mitigation measures. Furthermore, even where the evidence is compelling, the fragmentation of dairy producers precludes their aggregation. Additionally, there is a lack of robust, affordable, and scalable monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) systems at the grassroots level. These barriers prevent the development of a clear, scalable, and financeable pipeline of livestock methane abatement in India.

The Government of India has actively supported dairy development and livestock health through various schemes and programs introduced by the Department of Animal Husbandry and Dairying. At the same time, livestock systems in India are deeply embedded within rural livelihoods and socio-economic structures, making the sector a critical component of rural resilience. Consequently, interventions must be context-aware and farmer-centric, with a strong focus on livelihood security and alignment with local values and practices.

With this background, CPI is organizing a roundtable to explore how livestock methane can transition from a technically understood challenge to actionable opportunities on the ground, including both animal feed and manure management. The forum would bring together dairy producer organizations, nodal agencies, think tanks, ecosystem enablers, and financial institutions. It will deliberate upon possible projectized solutions and accompanying financing mechanisms that could be scaled up to address the twin objectives of methane abatement and farmers’ income security.

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Efficient Capital Markets Can Unlock Africa’s Domestic Savings

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Efficient Capital Markets Can Unlock Africa’s Domestic Savings

By Samira Mensah, Head of Analytics & Research Africa, S&P Global Ratings

 

 

 

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Efficient capital markets can transform Africa’s limited domestic financial assets into investments that spur economic growth. By connecting institutional investors, pension funds and foreign investors, capital markets enhance economic development by increasing the availability of funding for long-term projects.

Efficient domestic capital markets can not only address governments’ significant funding gaps but can also ensure that critical infrastructure developments—such as transportation, energy and telecommunications—are adequately financed, ultimately driving economic growth and employment. Supported by transparent and comparable risk frameworks, efficient domestic capital markets can build confidence among domestic and foreign investors and enhance resilience during periods of global risk aversion.

In our view, African capital markets currently lack two key building blocks.

In our view, African capital markets currently lack two key building blocks. Firstly, with limited exceptions, regulatory frameworks generally lag the International Organization of Securities Commissions’ (IOSCO’s) global standards, which cover listing standards on securities exchanges, development of digital market infrastructure and improvements in the timeliness and transparency of regulatory disclosures of issuers’ financial results, including environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors and green-finance taxonomies.

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Some countries, such as South Africa, Kenya, Morocco and Mauritius, are more advanced than others. The misalignment of regulatory frameworks with international norms stems from the gap between adoption and implementation through legislation, which deters international and local investment.

Secondly, the absence of standardized risk assessments leads to information gaps and limits investor participation in primary and secondary bond markets. Credit benchmarks—such as sovereign-yield curves, credit ratings and market-implied risk measures—can help in this regard. They distill complex financial, macroeconomic and institutional information into consistent and comparable signals.

As such, these benchmarks provide a standardized framework for assessing creditworthiness, supporting consistent credit analysis and facilitating decision-making based on transparent and comparable data. They are relevant to investment vehicles with specific investment mandates and may influence the availability of capital, which is crucial for infrastructure projects.

Capital markets can spur economic growth

Capital markets can play a central role in turning domestic savings into productive investments. This is particularly the case in Africa, where development needs are high and incomes are rising from a low base. Additionally, innovative financial technologies, such as fintech platforms, attract more small savings—including money sent home by migrants—that can also fund investments. However, mobilizing domestic savings for investments in local economies remains a significant challenge because many transactions are in cash and outside the financial system.

According to the Africa Finance Corporation (AFC), African sovereign-wealth funds, pension funds, insurers, central banks and commercial banks hold an estimated US$4 trillion in financial assets, representing 130 percent of Africa’s gross domestic product (GDP) in 2025. Long-term institutional capital accounts for $1.1 trillion of the $4 trillion, while African sovereign-wealth funds manage only about $145 billion in assets under management (AUM)—less than 1 percent of global sovereign-wealth funds’ AUM.

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Although banking assets comprise the majority of financial assets, they are typically short-term, and banks rely on customer deposits to fund lending activities. This underscores the mismatch between banks’ short-term funding profiles and the economy’s long-term financing needs, particularly in underdeveloped financial systems.

South Africa holds the largest share of Africa’s financial assets, followed by Egypt and Nigeria. South Africa contributes 20-25 percent to Africa’s financial assets. This reflects the country’s outsized role within the continent’s savings pools, its large and mature pension system and its highly developed banking sector. We estimate that the South African banking sector’s assets amount to nearly 100 percent of GDP, while nonbank financial institutions—including pension and insurance funds—account for close to 120 percent of GDP.

Smaller economies that are important regional financial hubs—such as Morocco, Mauritius and Kenya—also play a meaningful role. Aggregate financial assets represent 80 percent to more than 200 percent of these economies’ respective GDPs. Yet a significant portion of this capital does not flow into long-term productive investments.

In several countries, the economic effects of financial assets are muted because large shares are either invested in government securities or placed offshore. For example, the bank-sovereign nexus remains particularly high in Egypt and Kenya, where government securities account for 30-60 percent of banking assets. This contributes to crowding out private investments and increases fiscal-financial linkages. Pension funds are further constrained by specific investment mandates. We understand that only 5 percent of their assets are allocated to alternative investments.

Capital allocation rules could channel domestic savings into real sectors

Regulations across various jurisdictions permit pension funds and sovereign-wealth funds to invest abroad, albeit to varying degrees. For instance, South Africa, which holds the largest share of the continent’s institutional savings, allows its pension funds to invest up to 45 percent offshore, while Nigeria’s regulatory framework limits pension funds’ aggregate offshore exposure to 20-25 percent.

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While this facilitates diversification, it also means that a significant portion of domestic savings is invested in fixed-income securities outside Africa, thereby curbing the potential for local economic development. Similarly, when African sovereign-wealth funds invest internationally, their portfolios tend to be diversified away from African assets, further diluting the potential developmental benefits of domestic savings.

Intra-African investment remains limited

However, existing cross-border banking and investment activity points to significant untapped potential. Pan-African banks are important for regional financial connectivity, but their cross-border activities are limited by risk-return considerations, leaving significant potential for greater mobilization of long-term investment. These banking groups’ networks facilitate payments, trade settlement and sovereign financing, but remain only partially leveraged for long-term investment mobilization.

For example, Moroccan banking groups have built extensive footprints across francophone West and Central Africa but their assets outside Morocco account for less than 10 percent of their consolidated assets. Although Nigerian and Kenyan banks support trade finance and corporate lending across regional trade corridors, their home markets hold the lion’s share of their consolidated assets.

Cross-border institutional capital flows remain modest. Pension funds and insurers largely invest domestically—often in government securities—or allocate savings offshore. This reflects regulatory fragmentation, currency risks, shallow capital markets and limited regional investment-vehicle opportunities. Joint investments in infrastructure, productive sectors and regional value chains remain low.

The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) aims at deepening financial integration. By seeking to expand intra-African trade and regional value chains, the AfCFTA aims to increase demand for cross-border financing, risk-sharing and long-term capital. This, however, will require more regional capital-market integrations, harmonized regulations and co-investment platforms that pool African savings.

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Leveraging existing pan-African banking networks, regional bond markets, infrastructure funds and blended-finance vehicles could redirect Africa’s capital toward continental growth. This could, in turn, reduce reliance on external financing and strengthen the links between domestic savings and productive investments under the AfCFTA framework.

The catalytic role of MLIs in capital mobilization

Multilateral lending institutions (MLIs) can mobilize long-term funding, provide credit enhancement and support the introduction of new financing structures. To improve capital efficiency and preserve lending capacity, several MLIs have increasingly used balance-sheet optimization tools in recent years, including portfolio risk-sharing and originate-to-distribute-type arrangements.

More broadly, MLIs’ engagement extends beyond direct financing to include policy support, institutional and capacity-building development and infrastructure. These measures may support longer-term improvements in market functioning and economic integration.

Afreximbank’s (African Export–Import Bank’s) push to implement the Pan-African Payment and Settlement System (PAPSS) aims to accelerate regional trade integration under the AfCFTA. The PAPSS seeks to facilitate cross-border settlements in local currencies and reduce trade costs, while the Africa Trade Gateway plans to ease cross-border trade and payment flows. The benefits of these platforms for intraregional trade and transaction costs will likely emerge gradually.

Even so, structural constraints remain. In particular, the limited availability of first-loss concessional capital and uneven risk appetite in the private sector continue to constrain the scale and pace at which blended-finance solutions can be deployed. Although MLIs’ continent-wide initiatives could support the gradual expansion of public-private partnerships and risk-sharing structures, their effectiveness will likely depend on sustained policy support, transaction standardization and stable macro-financial conditions.

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Strengthening Africa’s capital markets

We believe the development of capital markets is crucial for the growth of African economies and their private sectors.

We believe the development of capital markets is crucial for the growth of African economies and their private sectors. Unlocking Africa’s abundant funding potential would benefit from establishing effective regulatory regimes that encourage listings without overburdening issuers. Strengthening capital markets by facilitating both debt and equity raisings and listings can broaden market access and deepen market liquidity.

Excluding South Africa, capital markets across Africa remain fragmented and shallow. The Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE), the largest African stock exchange by market capitalization, has a total market capitalization of South African rand (ZAR) 24.6 trillion (about US$1.5 trillion)—more than three times South Africa’s GDP. It ranks among the top 20 stock exchanges worldwide.

In contrast, other exchanges are more modest, as their private sectors’ funding profiles rely primarily on bank loans rather than accessing capital markets. Countries such as Nigeria, Egypt, Côte d’Ivoire, Kenya and Morocco have significant domestic financing sources, but these often come at high costs.

Governments largely define these domestic bond markets because they are the largest issuers, and commercial banks are the primary buyers of government bonds. South Africa has the most liquid and diverse bond market, but government securities dominate local-currency issuances (270 percent of GDP).

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Countries such as South Africa and Nigeria have introduced reforms to unlock nonbank domestic capital, notably through pension-fund reforms that allow greater capital allocation to alternative assets. Other reforms aim to develop new financing platforms, facilitate green financing and set benchmarks for how capital markets can price climate and infrastructure-related risks.

In 2022, the African Development Bank (AfDB) issued its inaugural local-currency ZAR200-million green bond, which was listed on the JSE. The JSE is advancing sustainability-linked financial instruments and improving ESG disclosures, aligning African capital markets with global best practices.

In 2026, the JSE launched its nature platform and listed Africa’s first nature-linked performance-based bond—a ZAR2.5-billion issuance by FirstRand Bank, one of the country’s top banks. In 2025, the Rwanda Stock Exchange (RSE) launched its Green Exchange Window (GEW), supported by the Luxembourg Stock Exchange (LuxSE).

Collectively, these labeled debt instruments can act as catalysts for blended-finance structures, mobilizing more private capital.

Governments play a vital role in equalizing access to information and developing deep, transparent sovereign-bond markets. Well-established government-bond yield curves in these markets serve as important pricing benchmarks for corporates and the wider economy. This enhances investor confidence and facilitates more informed investment decisions. Ongoing efforts by governments to increase transparency, provide timely information disclosures and maintain robust regulatory oversight will maximize the benefits of sovereign-bond markets.

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Clear and credible credit signals further enhance pricing transparency, enabling investors to better assess risk and return. Greater confidence in valuations supports active participation, improves secondary-market liquidity and strengthens price discovery. Over time, this creates a virtuous cycle—whereby increased participation reinforces market efficiency and resilience, ultimately supporting sustainable economic growth in Africa.

Despite structural shortcomings, domestic investors have increasingly stepped in to meet financing needs. Infrastructure projects are now more often financed through domestic local-currency capital markets and financial institutions, including development-finance institutions. We believe that Africa’s economic integration will be intrinsically linked to more developed domestic capital markets.

 

 

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

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Samira Mensah is Managing Director, Research & Analytics Africa, and Country Head for South Africa at S&P Global Ratings, based in Johannesburg. She leads thought leadership and market outreach initiatives across Africa, with a particular focus on African credit markets and Islamic finance. A frequent speaker at industry conferences and contributor to research publications, Samira recently presented at The Africa We Build Summit in Nairobi.

 

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