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The BookKeeper – Exploring Arsenal’s finances, transfer funds, owner debts and soaring revenues

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The BookKeeper – Exploring Arsenal’s finances, transfer funds, owner debts and soaring revenues

The Athletic has appointed Chris Weatherspoon as its first dedicated football finance writer. Chris is a chartered accountant who will be using his professional acumen as The BookKeeper to explore the money behind the game. He is starting with a series this week analysing the financial health of some of the Premier League’s biggest clubs.

You can read more about Chris and pitch him your ideas, and his first two articles exploring the books at Manchester United and Manchester City.


Arsenal’s return to the top table of English football has been a long time coming. Two decades have passed since they last won the Premier League title — few who watched their famed ‘Invincibles’ team of 2003-04 would have predicted that would be the last of Arsene Wenger’s league successes.

Yet football, and perhaps English football more than anywhere else, has changed dramatically since those days of Thierry Henry, Dennis Bergkamp and Robert Pires.

Financially, Arsenal have had to deal with the seemingly bottomless wealth of first Chelsea and then Manchester City, two rivals whose various periods of domestic dominance were at least in some part built on the back of Arsenal’s hard work, given they raided Wenger for many of his best players.

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The influx of outside money at those two clubs starkly contrasted with Arsenal’s continued efforts at sustainability. The results on the pitch were inevitable.

Another off-field factor held back Arsenal, albeit inadvertently. Moving from Highbury into a state-of-the-art stadium in the early 2000s was always going to see them bear costs that would have an impact on their ability to compete for trophies, but the arrival of oligarchical and state wealth at the same time made it a greater burden.

The Emirates Stadium remains one of the best grounds in the country but for many years, the building costs weighed heavy, leaving space for other clubs to steam in. Between 2005 and 2022, Arsenal managed just one second-place finish in the league. Wenger, once a deity among fans, left at the end of the 2017-18 season under a cloud of hostility.

Nearly two decades on from the doors of the Emirates officially opening, Arsenal are a club transformed.

Under the guidance of manager Mikel Arteta, they have risen from six seasons spent bouncing between fifth and eighth-place finishes to resuming their role as genuine title contenders. They have been pipped at the post in each of the past two completed campaigns by one of the greatest club teams in world football.

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As night follows day, so improvements on the field have been shadowed off it; Arsenal boasted football’s seventh-highest revenue figure last season, a four-place jump on three years ago and their highest ranking since 2017. With new sponsorships inked and Champions League money flowing into the club again, their income will grow again this season.


Arsenal are now regular loss-makers – so what’s their PSR position?

Despite that positive headline, Arsenal’s latest financials saw the club book another loss, with their pre-tax deficit last season totalling £17.7million ($23m).

The financial results of most Premier League clubs tumbled following the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020. Arsenal were no exception but their loss-making actually began before then. After 16 consecutive years of profitability, they have now booked six annual pre-tax losses in succession. Across those six years, the club have lost £328.7million — almost wiping out the £385.0m surplus of the previous 16.

Again, the pandemic made its mark, especially on 2021’s club-record £127.2million loss, but the past six years have followed one particular moment: Kroenke Sports & Entertainment (KSE) assuming full control of the club. Arsenal delisted from public ownership and re-registered as a private company in October 2018. Since then, under KSE’s sole stewardship, Arsenal have invested heavily in their squad and, in the case of last season, enjoyed significant revenue growth.

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Is the shift to repeated deficits cause for concern? Are the Kroenkes financially illiterate? Probably not. Instead, after years of constraint, KSE has sanctioned efforts to bring the club into line with Europe’s footballing elite.

Of course, utter the phrase ‘pre-tax losses’ in the game today and you’ll soon be thumped over the head with an acronym.

Where financial losses stray, soon mentions of profit and sustainability rules (PSR) must follow. Naturally, given Arsenal have been loss-making for six years, PSR is a concern for their owners and fans alike, but there’s nothing too much to worry about —even though they cannot claim losses as high as they might do.

Owners can provide ‘secure funding’ (usually by way of share issues) to increase their club’s PSR loss limit, up to a maximum loss of £105million over a three-year cycle. Instead, most of KSE’s funding has been via loans, which doesn’t constitute secure funding, with the exception of a £5.4m capital contribution (which does) in 2023. Consequently, Arsenal are limited to PSR losses over the past three seasons of £20.4m — the £15m lower limit available to all clubs, plus that capital contribution. Even so, for the PSR period spanning 2021-24, we estimate that, after deductions for capital expenditure, academy, community and women’s teams costs, Arsenal booked a PSR profit of around £28m — £48m clear of a breach.

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As for the current season, The Athletic estimates Arsenal could lose up to £97million and remain compliant with the Premier League’s PSR rules. That seems a fairly remote possibility, though it’s worth highlighting that they are subject to UEFA’s financial regulations too. European football’s governing body puts limits on squad expenditure — we project, based on player wages comprising 70 per cent of the total wage bill, that Arsenal were at around 60 per cent last season against a limit of 90 per cent — and losses, which are generally lower than the Premier League’s ones.

After deductions, we again expect Arsenal to be fine, although the club are carefully managing their current and future positions.


Soaring revenues reflect their on-pitch rise

Arsenal’s revenue increase last season was, in a word, huge. The world’s biggest clubs breaking their revenue records is hardly a rarity, but the extent of the improvement in their case was remarkable: turnover hit £616.6million in 2023-24, an annual increase of £150m, nearly a third. Even with the prize money and commercial benefits of Champions League football, that is still a massive uplift for a club who already boasted the 10th-highest income in world football.

Income increased across all three main revenue streams: matchday, broadcast and commercial. Mirroring that broader club record, Arsenal hit new highs in each stream. TV money was the highest at £262.3million but there was roughly 30 per cent growth across the board.

At the Emirates, gate receipts soared. Arsenal’s home has generated a nine-figure sum for the club on several occasions but last season’s £131.7million matchday income was a big increase on 2022-23 (£102.6m).

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That was the byproduct of a couple of things.

For starters, Arsenal played one more home game last season (25) than in 2022-23. Four Europa League matches at the Emirates were replaced with five in the Champions League, enabling the club to charge higher prices for viewing a more prestigious competition. On top of that, Arsenal made ticketing changes in 2023-24, reducing the number of matches covered by a season ticket from 26 to 22 and implementing an increase in general admission season ticket prices of, on average, five per cent.

The result was Arsenal’s highest single-season gate receipts (by far) and the club leapt to second for matchday income domestically, having trailed Tottenham Hotspur in each of the last two seasons. Their matchday revenue was just £5.5million behind Manchester United’s last year, marking a significant narrowing between the two clubs: the gap had been over £30m in each of the previous two seasons. Though the Emirates may have held the club back for several years, the benefits of moving there are increasingly apparent. Since the stadium opened in 2006, Arsenal have booked combined gate receipts of £1.652bn, over four times its initial £390m build cost.

More predictable but no less important was the rise in TV money. The difference between the Europa League and the Champions League is stark. Arsenal earned £80.4million in broadcast revenue from last season’s run to the Champions League quarter-finals, over three times their takings for reaching the prior round of the Europa League in 2022-23.

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Arguably most important was a surge in Arsenal’s commercial income.

Elite clubs have increasingly turned to sponsorship and marketing deals as a plentiful source of potential revenue, and Arsenal’s £218.3million commercial income marks both a big jump for the club and them catching up to domestic rivals. That likely still places Arsenal at the bottom of England’s ‘Big Six’ commercially, but they’ve closed the gap significantly. Chelsea’s commercial income was over £40m more than Arsenal’s in 2023; the distance between them now is around £7m.

Arsenal’s commercial revenues were driven by a kit supplier deal with Adidas (worth £75million per year), Emirates’ front-of-shirt sponsorship (£40m), Sobha Realty’s training-centre naming rights deal (£15m) and Visit Rwanda’s sleeve sponsorship (£10m).

Growth now and beyond looks certain too.

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That Emirates deal was renewed at £60million per year, starting this season, while the club are expected to improve on sleeve sponsorship takings once the Visit Rwanda contract ends this summer.


A rising wage bill — yet still at the lower end of the elite

Believe it or not, the general improvement in on-pitch performances has also helped lighten the mood inside the Emirates. Financially, it is a club’s wage bill that tends to dictate where they’ll finish in a given season, yet Arsenal have been bucking that trend — and in a good way, too.

Arsenal’s wages had hovered around the £230million mark for years, increasing just £11.5m between 2018 and 2023. That was, in part, due to their lack of Champions League football and the attendant contractual bonuses qualifying for it brings. Matters changed in 2023-24, as the return to Europe’s elite competition coincided with a £93m (40 per cent) increase in the wage bill. Squad investment and renewed terms for star players including Bukayo Saka and William Saliba pushed staff costs to a record high.

Even so, that still only served to bring Arsenal closer to their rivals. The wage bills at Manchester City and Chelsea have topped £400million in recent years, while Liverpool (£387m last season) are closing in on that mark, too. Arsenal are spending more than they ever have on salaries, yet still trail several clubs they have surpassed on the field recently.

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In the past two seasons, Arsenal under Arteta have significantly over-performed their wage bill. In 2022-23, they finished as runners-up with only the Premier League’s sixth-highest staff costs. Last year, they were second again with the fifth-highest.

That’s only a partial telling of the achievement too.

Consider that in each of those seasons, Arteta’s men provided the sole meaningful challenge to Manchester City’s domestic dominance and did so, particularly in that first year, with a wage bill that was hardly in the same ballpark as the champions’. In that treble-winning season for City, their wage bill was £188million ahead of Arsenal’s. That gap narrowed significantly last season, both as City’s staff costs fell slightly while Arsenal’s jumped, but was still £85m.

In each of those years, Arsenal had more administrative staff than City — underlining the stark difference in how much the clubs were paying their players.


From transfer misers to one of the biggest spenders

Arsenal’s spending in the transfer market has ramped up in recent years, another sign they are stepping out of the long shadow of their stadium build.

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While net spend isn’t actually all that useful a metric on its own, it is telling that in six of Arsenal’s first seven years playing at the Emirates, their net transfer spend sat in the bottom half of the Premier League. In those circumstances, continually qualifying for the Champions League year-on-year was no mean feat.

Since the 2018-19 season, with KSE assuming sole ownership, Arsenal have undertaken a clear shift in strategy, parting with a net £857.2million transfer spend. That’s the second-highest in English football, only trailing Chelsea, and not far shy of trebling the club’s net spend in the previous six years (£310.5m). On a gross basis, Arsenal have now spent £991.7m in the past five years, a sum which puts them ahead of both City (£970.3m) and neighbours United (£918.3m). Chelsea’s £1.458bn spend from 2019 to 2023 is still way off in the distance, but, at the Emirates, a club who were once relative misers in terms of transfers have considerably loosened the purse strings.

Up to the end of May last year, Arsenal’s existing squad had been assembled for £882.4million. That’s a big figure, though a look around the division helps explain why the club have felt the need to invest so heavily.

Even with the second-highest transfer outlay of recent years, Arsenal’s squad is only ranked fourth when it comes to the cost of assembling it, with each of the two Manchester clubs’ historic spending ensuring theirs were still costlier than the one at Arteta’s disposal. City and Chelsea had each spent over £1billion on their existing squads at the date of their most recent accounts, while the cost of United’s ticked over that mark in the first quarter of the current season.

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Arsenal’s transfer spending has been lofty, but they’ve also been playing catch-up.


Shareholder loans are low-interest and now top £300m – but is that the whole story?

Recent months have seen a growing focus on shareholder loans, with Premier League clubs voting in November to bring them into line with how other associated party transactions (APTs) are treated.

Clubs will be required to account for shareholder loans at fair market value (FMV), meaning those that don’t currently do so stand to take a hit in the form of increased interest costs. That will impact not only a club’s bottom lines but, by extension, their PSR calculations too.

Arsenal now owe £324.1million to KSE, with the owner having provided another £61.9m in cash loans last season.

The club would therefore seem ripe for punishment under the amended APT rules. Yet Arsenal voted in favour of the changes. Manchester City, with no shareholder loans on their books, voted against them. If that seems strange, consider the nuances of these new rules. The APT amendments — which adapted prior regulations recently struck down as ‘void and unenforceable’ — dictated that only loans drawn down from owners after November 22, 2024, are required to be recorded at FMV. Any monies drawn down before then, while potentially subject to an FMV assessment, would not require adjustments to club figures.

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Or at least they don’t right now. City’s seemingly never-ending courtroom tussles with the Premier League took on a new dimension recently, with the club seeking to have those November amendments declared null and void too.

Any further changes from that challenge remain to be seen but, at the moment, Arsenal’s existing £324.1m owing to their owners won’t incur increased costs. Any amounts drawn down since November 22 last year will have to be accounted for at FMV, but only those additional drawdowns. What could have amounted to a sizeable sum — at one point, there were suggestions that interest costs adjustments might be backdated across the entire span of the loans, something City (and any others in support of their view) are expected to push for if the November amendments are declared unlawful — getting whacked onto the club’s PSR calculation will instead be much smaller, if present at all.

If that seems unfair, then it’s worth considering what that money borrowed from KSE was actually for. Or the bulk of it at least.

The loans came on board in the 2020-21 season, but weren’t new debt. Before that season, Arsenal were already carrying £218million in debt, £187m of that being bonds related to the Emirates Stadium build. Those bonds were linked to gate revenues, which nosedived due to the pandemic. KSE stepped in and refinanced the loans, incurring a £32m break cost (the amount the club were charged for ending the loans earlier than planned) in the process, meaning just about all of Arsenal’s debt is now owed to their owners.

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Before that refinancing, KSE was already owed £15million, and the total amount due to the owners has risen from £201.6m in 2021 to £324.1m at the end of last season. That extra £122.5m has primarily gone toward squad strengthening, so there’s an argument Arsenal have gained a sporting advantage. Yet that would ignore the price of KSE restructuring those debts in 2021; the £32m in break costs is currently far more than the club would have incurred in interest if the additional amount loaned since had been recorded at FMV, though that argument will wane the longer the shareholder loans remain in place.

What’s more, the loans from KSE aren’t interest-free.

In each of the past four financial years, Arsenal have incurred interest costs on ‘Other’ items (which includes the KSE loans), with these hitting £7.8m last season. As a percentage of the average loan balance across last season, that’s an effective interest rate of 2.7 per cent. Not market rate, granted, but not a free ride either.


What next?

Despite another annual loss, Arsenal’s most recent accounts reflect a club on the up.

With revenue soaring and those losses coming down, all as the team become much more competitive on the pitch, it’s clear the Arsenal of today are some way removed from the situation when KSE first assumed full control six and a half years ago.

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Whether the relative largesse of the period since then continues remains to be seen. It is no secret that KSE, like other Premier League owners with sporting interests on both sides of the Atlantic, are keen to reach a point of sustainability. There’s little likelihood of their £324million loan being repaid any time soon, but Arsenal’s transfer activity this season points to slowing activity. They spent a net £21m in the summer, then nothing in the winter window.

Even so, it seems unlikely they won’t invest in the squad again for next season. Football is increasingly an arms race, so it would make little sense for KSE and Arsenal to spend as much as they have in the past half-decade only to then turn the taps off completely. For all the club’s growth, they’ve still not won top honours at home or abroad, outside the 2019-20 FA Cup; reining in spending would make that task rather more difficult, and you can be sure their competitors wouldn’t follow suit.

Promisingly, Arsenal’s day-to-day operating cash flow has ballooned recently, increasing the likelihood the first team can remain competitive even if KSE chooses to slow its own input. The club’s £176.1million cash generated from operations in 2023-24 might well be a Premier League high for that season, and takes them past the most recent figures at historically strong cash-generators Tottenham (£131.2m) and Manchester United (£121.2m).

Much of that increased cash came via their Champions League return. Arsenal’s upcoming two-leg quarter-final against Real Madrid might not be viewed with much envy, but getting to the last eight is estimated to have made the club at least another €100million (£84m/$109m) in prize money. Get past the reigning champions and they’ll bank a further €15m for reaching the semis, with €18.5m on offer for a spot in May’s final and a further €6.5m if they were to win it all.

Even if they go out against Madrid next month, this season looks to be the most lucrative European campaign in Arsenal’s history. Their estimated prize money from UEFA competition over the past two seasons, £164.4million, is almost as much as the previous six combined (£165.8m).

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Arsenal fans might ask why the club didn’t invest in much-needed striking options in the winter transfer window.

It’s a valid question but they have spent sizeably in recent years. Perhaps no deal made financial sense in the winter. Those supporters can expect more spending from their club this summer.

(Top photos: Getty Images; design: Eamonn Dalton)

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Finance

New changes to financial aid will be minor for UND students, bigger for loan borrowers in repayment

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New changes to financial aid will be minor for UND students, bigger for loan borrowers in repayment

GRAND FORKS — Student loan repayment options and federal PLUS loans are seeing the biggest changes with the implementation of the federal One Big Beautiful Bill Act, said the director of student finance at the University of North Dakota.

Matt Lukach said students will see minor changes, but most of the work to make the alterations will fall upon UND’s system.

“It’s going to create work on our end, though, because all these changes will be manual, so we will have a lot more work on the back end. But hopefully, our students won’t see too much of a change from past years,” he said.

On Wednesday, July 1, changes to federal student aid programs from the OBBBA went into effect. Of the changes, Luckach sees the removal of the SAVE (Saving on a Valuable Education) loan repayment plan, the removal of the Graduate PLUS Loan Program and the alteration to the Parent PLUS Loan Program and scheduled reductions for federal loans at the undergraduate level as the most significant.

For undergraduate loans, students previously could get their full federal loan even if they were not a full-time student taking 12 credits. Following the changes, loans will be pro-rated down, depending on how many credits a student is taking. Most of UND’s undergraduate students are full-time students, Lukach said. For part-time students, UND will work to make adjustments to loan offers early so they won’t be as affected if they need to find alternative funding. UND already makes schedule reductions for Pell Grant funding.

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A big change that may affect graduate students is the removal of the federal Graduate PLUS Loan Program. Some graduate students have used it to fund living expenses and pay for shortfalls while they finish their program. Graduate borrowers who have had a PLUS loan disbursed before July 1, 2026, while enrolled in a program, can continue to borrow for three academic years or the remainder of their program, whichever is less. Newer graduate students won’t be able to get the loans, and Lukach has seen movement in the private loan sector to balance this.

“We have had a lot of traffic, a lot of movement in the private loan sector in the last year to come up with options to help fill that gap of graduate PLUS loans,” he said. “The private educational loan industry is doing a pretty good job of coming up with some really comparable options to that loan.”

The Parent PLUS Loan Program won’t be going away, but it will be capped. Eligible parents can borrow a maximum of $20,000 per aid year per dependent student. In the past there was no cap, but Lukach said there wasn’t a high percentage of parents borrowing more than $20,000.

In Lukach’s opinion, the financial aid changes will be minor to current and incoming students. The bigger changes, he said, are in student loan repayment.

The SAVE plan, PAYE (Pay As You Earn) plan and the ICR (Income-Contingent Repayment) plan all are being phased out. Loan servicers are reaching out to current borrowers notifying them they have to choose different plans, though they can pay through the ICR plan until July 1, 2028. Their other options include a new tiered standard repayment plan and the new Repayment Assistance Plan.

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RAP allows borrowers to pay monthly payments of 1-10% of the borrower’s income based on their adjusted gross income, with a minimum monthly payment of $10.

“I honestly don’t know what the effects of these new plans will be yet, because we’ve not heard from anybody, and they just went into effect,” Lukach said. “I’m sure we’ll see some chatter in the next few months on that (RAP) to see if it looks good, bad, the same. It’s hard to tell if it will be a benefit or a detriment to those people who are on the SAVE plan. We’re real early in this.”

New borrowers who borrow loans on or after July 1, 2026, have the options of the new tiered repayment plan or RAP.

Same as any other year, Lukach offers students this advice: Make a financial plan and know what is needed.

UND also has a monthly payment plan to cover gaps between a student’s charges and their financial aid, something Lukach has noticed students use more over the years. Overall, he’s seeing students be more fiscally responsible.

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“It’s a good sign,” he said. “It means we have really high-quality students at the University of North Dakota, which I really, really love.”

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This new bill hopes to ‘put the brakes’ on financial fraud targeting older Americans

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This new bill hopes to ‘put the brakes’ on financial fraud targeting older Americans

A new bipartisan bill making its way through Congress aims to protect seniors and other vulnerable people from scams by allowing some financial institutions the ability to pause transaction requests while they investigate potential fraud.

The Financial Exploitation Prevention Act would give open-end investment companies, including mutual funds, the ability to pause redemption requests from people 65 and older or people with disabilities when the institution believes financial fraud or exploitation is at play.

“Financial exploitation is a huge problem in this country,” said Nina Kohn, an elder law expert at the Syracuse University College of Law. Artificial intelligence is also helping fraudsters become more sophisticated and making it harder for people to avoid scams, she added.

Financial abuse cost older victims nearly $2.4 billion in 2024, according to incidents reported to the Federal Trade Commission. The agency noted in its annual report that the estimate of total losses include “only a fraction” of older adults harmed by fraud due to underreporting.

Three people accused of being behind a major romance fraud scheme targeting older adults were indicted by the Department of Justice in May, part of a series of cases that have charged 11 others from the U.S. and Ghana with wire fraud and money laundering.

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“The concern is, in part, that individuals may lose their life savings,” Kohn said.

“So financial institutions and entities that are holding individuals’ money can be empowered to help put the brakes on scams by delaying disbursement to a suspected victim,” she added.

READ MORE: As losses from scams surge, Congress asks telecoms to do more to prevent them

The bill passed the House in a 414-2 vote last month, while a similar bill resides in the Senate, though it’s not clear if or when the banking committee under that chamber will consider the legislation.

The overwhelming support for this bill shows “there’s broad agreement that protecting seniors from financial exploitation shouldn’t be a partisan issue,” said Rep. Andrew Garbarino, R-N.Y., one of the bill’s co-sponsors, in an emailed statement to PBS News.

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The legislation gives these financial institutions additional tools to “recognize when something isn’t right and help stop financial abuse before the damage is done.”

Here’s what to know about the bill.

What would the bill do?

The bill would allow a financial institution that manages investments, such as mutual funds and some exchange-traded funds, to temporarily halt requests to access funds that it “reasonably believes” might be exploitative.

The bill focuses on requests from two specific groups:

  • Someone age 65 or older
  • Any adult the financial institution “reasonably believes has a mental or physical impairment that renders the individual unable to protect” their own interests.

It doesn’t require the institutions to carry out the pauses or investigate potential fraud. But there is a proposed framework for delays. The institution can put a hold on the request for up to 15 business days while companies notify a client-provided adult contact that the customer may be the victim of financial exploitation. There are steps an institution can take to extend the hold for another 10 days. A court, state regulator or another administrative authority could also extend the delay.

The bill does not apply to other financial institutions, like banks or credit unions. It does require the Securities and Exchange Commission to submit a report to Congress with recommendations on how to further reduce financial fraud targeting these adults within a year of enacting these measures.

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The Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, or FINRA, already allows brokers and money managers to temporarily freeze requests that are from older adults who may be the victims of exploitation.About half the states also have laws on the books that allow banks and sometimes credit unions to do the same.

This federal legislation “fills a gap,” Kohn said, by covering investment funds that are self-managed.

How this bill could help

The Department of Justice identified more than 1 million victims of all forms of elder financial exploitation, fraud, neglect and abuse between July 2024 and June 2025. Offenders allegedly stole or attempted to steal $2.3 billion, according to the department’s latest annual report to Congress.

There are no national reporting standards for how often financial institutions detect exploitation, and when they do, how often they put holds on accounts, said Marti DeLiema, associate professor at the University of Minnesota School of Social Work.

WATCH: How human trafficking victims are forced to run ‘pig butchering’ investment scams

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But some state-level data does exist. In Minnesota, of the 286 cases referred for investigation in 2022, temporary holds were implemented in a quarter of them, according to a study DeLiema co-authored.

Half of the banks who responded to a 2024 survey from the American Bankers Association Foundation said they had delayed disbursements or refused or held transactions when they suspected exploitation.

And more than 85% of banks in states without hold laws said they would find them beneficial, the survey found.

“Financial institutions are seeing this stuff is happening. They want to help,” DeLiema said. Sometimes, a conversation from the bank or law enforcement is enough to pull the victim from the scam, she said.

Other times, that’s not enough.

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In those cases, temporary holds can be used as a “last resort” to keep the person and their money safe.

Concerns and questions about autonomy

For Kohn, it’s not clear whether the pauses proposed by the bill will prevent the exploitation entirely or just delay it. Putting holds on customers’ accounts also puts financial institutions at risk of degrading trust with their clients.

While 43% of banks in the ABA Foundation survey said they found state hold laws useful in preventing financial exploitation among older people, 45% also said customers reacted negatively to those holds. Nearly 17% said customers closed their accounts after a delay, and 2.4% said the hold has been challenged in court.

Another concern is someone’s self-determination. Allowing financial institutions to stop customers from accessing their own money may verge into limiting people’s ability to make choices about their lives and their own funds, Kohn said.

“The question is: Is that restriction on self-determination justified?” she said.

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Giving people the opportunity to make their own decisions, even bad ones, is called “dignity of risk,” a term often used in disability studies.

For example, people are allowed to take their retirement funds and spend it at a casino, DeLiema said, so “why would we stop them from participating in a scam?”

“The answer has to be: The people on the other end are criminally victimizing these individuals. They’re using deception, they’re lying,” she said.

That exploitation leads victims to believe they’re in a relationship with their scammer, or that they’re rescuing a grandchild, or that their money is being invested in cryptocurrencies, she said.

With the rise of deepfakes and other AI-driven technology being used in scams, “all this is going to get a lot worse,” she added.

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WATCH: How to recognize and block AI-powered scam attempts

It’s reasonable for policymakers to be concerned about exploitation among older adults in particular, because they tend to lose more money than younger adults and have less time to recover financially, Kohn said.

But she also worries that legislation based on age may perpetuate stereotypes against older people.

If financial holds are good policy, why limit their application, she said.

“I think that speaks to our willingness as a society to curtail the self-determination and financial independence of older adults and people with disabilities to a degree that we are not comfortable curtailing the self-determination and financial independence of other adults,” she said.

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From Love Island to Precious Metals, Prediction Markets Are Changing Finance | PYMNTS.com

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From Love Island to Precious Metals, Prediction Markets Are Changing Finance | PYMNTS.com

Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket are betting on growth across new financial products.

The industry’s product menu already stretches from political elections and World Cup matches to weather events. It now includes reality television, with Kalshi’s first markets tied to “Love Island USA” helping to more than double its weekly active female user base during part of June, illustrating how easily an exchange can turn an existing online fandom into a new trading constituency.

Prediction markets aren’t done there. Kalshi is reportedly in advanced discussions with regulators about expanding its perpetual futures business beyond cryptocurrencies into gold, other metals, foreign exchange and energy. Polymarket, meanwhile, has reportedly filed applications that would help it offer margin trading to customers in the United States.

Prediction markets, it would seem, are outgrowing the category that made them famous. They are evolving from event-based content into a new distribution layer for a potential next-generation of retail derivatives.

See also: Robinhood’s Memecoin Boom Shows Crypto’s Retail Market Is No Joke

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Prediction Markets Are Becoming a Product Portfolio, Not a Betting Category

The event contract services business is evolving from predicting discrete events to trading continuous exposure to economically important assets. That transition is occurring just as the industry’s regulatory position is becoming more complicated.

A federal judge this week rejected Kalshi’s attempt to prevent New York from applying state gambling laws to its sports contracts. Last month, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) sued the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and its chairman, Michael Selig, challenging a decision to let Kalshi and crypto exchange Coinbase list perpetual futures.

The result is a market in which product demand may be the easy part. The harder question is whether prediction platforms can develop a compliance system broad enough to support everything from television finales to leveraged commodity trades.

The Love Island contracts, for example, expose the prediction market category’s fundamental surveillance problem. Television episodes are produced before they are broadcast, meaning cast members, production staff, editors and others can possess information unavailable to the public. Similar informational asymmetries arise around economic announcements, court decisions, corporate events and government actions. The more subjects a platform makes tradable, the more types of potential insiders it must identify.

Goldman Sachs prohibited employees from participating in financial and political event contracts that could create actual or perceived conflicts involving the bank, its clients or the financial industry, particularly when workers could possess confidential corporate or macroeconomic information.

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The Senate unanimously adopted a rule in April prohibiting senators, staff and officers from participating in prediction markets. Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs followed this month with an executive order prohibiting state executive branch employees from using nonpublic government information for prediction market profits.

Read also: Prediction Markets Turn Uncertainty Into a Business Model

A Short History of Prediction Market Products and U.S. Regulation

Despite all the action, prediction markets began as relatively constrained experiments in information aggregation. The CFTC said market operators have sought agency guidance since the early 1990s, and the first prediction market was designated as a federally regulated contract market in 2004. The central idea was that putting money behind a forecast could aggregate dispersed information more effectively than polls, surveys or expert opinion.

The model remained small partly because regulators treated event contracts as exceptional products. Contracts tied to economic indicators, elections or entertainment did not fit comfortably within either traditional futures regulation or state gambling frameworks.

Polymarket demonstrated the potential and limitations of operating outside that system. In 2022, the CFTC ordered the company to pay a $1.4 million penalty and wind down markets that violated federal derivatives laws. Polymarket later returned to the U.S. by acquiring federally licensed exchange and clearing infrastructure, creating a regulated domestic operation that is separate from its crypto-based international platform.

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PYMNTS reported in September that when the CFTC issued a no-action letter regarding event contracts in response to a request from two businesses owned by Polymarket, it in essence gave Polymarket a regulatory green light to re-enter the U.S. market.

The industry’s short history, in other words, is not primarily a progression from one betting topic to another. It is a progression from restricted forecasting experiment to full-scale exchange infrastructure. That direction of travel appears to be continuing.

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