Connect with us

Finance

The BookKeeper – Exploring Arsenal’s finances, transfer funds, owner debts and soaring revenues

Published

on

The BookKeeper – Exploring Arsenal’s finances, transfer funds, owner debts and soaring revenues

The Athletic has appointed Chris Weatherspoon as its first dedicated football finance writer. Chris is a chartered accountant who will be using his professional acumen as The BookKeeper to explore the money behind the game. He is starting with a series this week analysing the financial health of some of the Premier League’s biggest clubs.

You can read more about Chris and pitch him your ideas, and his first two articles exploring the books at Manchester United and Manchester City.


Arsenal’s return to the top table of English football has been a long time coming. Two decades have passed since they last won the Premier League title — few who watched their famed ‘Invincibles’ team of 2003-04 would have predicted that would be the last of Arsene Wenger’s league successes.

Yet football, and perhaps English football more than anywhere else, has changed dramatically since those days of Thierry Henry, Dennis Bergkamp and Robert Pires.

Financially, Arsenal have had to deal with the seemingly bottomless wealth of first Chelsea and then Manchester City, two rivals whose various periods of domestic dominance were at least in some part built on the back of Arsenal’s hard work, given they raided Wenger for many of his best players.

Advertisement

The influx of outside money at those two clubs starkly contrasted with Arsenal’s continued efforts at sustainability. The results on the pitch were inevitable.

Another off-field factor held back Arsenal, albeit inadvertently. Moving from Highbury into a state-of-the-art stadium in the early 2000s was always going to see them bear costs that would have an impact on their ability to compete for trophies, but the arrival of oligarchical and state wealth at the same time made it a greater burden.

The Emirates Stadium remains one of the best grounds in the country but for many years, the building costs weighed heavy, leaving space for other clubs to steam in. Between 2005 and 2022, Arsenal managed just one second-place finish in the league. Wenger, once a deity among fans, left at the end of the 2017-18 season under a cloud of hostility.

Nearly two decades on from the doors of the Emirates officially opening, Arsenal are a club transformed.

Under the guidance of manager Mikel Arteta, they have risen from six seasons spent bouncing between fifth and eighth-place finishes to resuming their role as genuine title contenders. They have been pipped at the post in each of the past two completed campaigns by one of the greatest club teams in world football.

Advertisement

As night follows day, so improvements on the field have been shadowed off it; Arsenal boasted football’s seventh-highest revenue figure last season, a four-place jump on three years ago and their highest ranking since 2017. With new sponsorships inked and Champions League money flowing into the club again, their income will grow again this season.


Arsenal are now regular loss-makers – so what’s their PSR position?

Despite that positive headline, Arsenal’s latest financials saw the club book another loss, with their pre-tax deficit last season totalling £17.7million ($23m).

The financial results of most Premier League clubs tumbled following the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020. Arsenal were no exception but their loss-making actually began before then. After 16 consecutive years of profitability, they have now booked six annual pre-tax losses in succession. Across those six years, the club have lost £328.7million — almost wiping out the £385.0m surplus of the previous 16.

Again, the pandemic made its mark, especially on 2021’s club-record £127.2million loss, but the past six years have followed one particular moment: Kroenke Sports & Entertainment (KSE) assuming full control of the club. Arsenal delisted from public ownership and re-registered as a private company in October 2018. Since then, under KSE’s sole stewardship, Arsenal have invested heavily in their squad and, in the case of last season, enjoyed significant revenue growth.

Advertisement

Is the shift to repeated deficits cause for concern? Are the Kroenkes financially illiterate? Probably not. Instead, after years of constraint, KSE has sanctioned efforts to bring the club into line with Europe’s footballing elite.

Of course, utter the phrase ‘pre-tax losses’ in the game today and you’ll soon be thumped over the head with an acronym.

Where financial losses stray, soon mentions of profit and sustainability rules (PSR) must follow. Naturally, given Arsenal have been loss-making for six years, PSR is a concern for their owners and fans alike, but there’s nothing too much to worry about —even though they cannot claim losses as high as they might do.

Owners can provide ‘secure funding’ (usually by way of share issues) to increase their club’s PSR loss limit, up to a maximum loss of £105million over a three-year cycle. Instead, most of KSE’s funding has been via loans, which doesn’t constitute secure funding, with the exception of a £5.4m capital contribution (which does) in 2023. Consequently, Arsenal are limited to PSR losses over the past three seasons of £20.4m — the £15m lower limit available to all clubs, plus that capital contribution. Even so, for the PSR period spanning 2021-24, we estimate that, after deductions for capital expenditure, academy, community and women’s teams costs, Arsenal booked a PSR profit of around £28m — £48m clear of a breach.

Advertisement

As for the current season, The Athletic estimates Arsenal could lose up to £97million and remain compliant with the Premier League’s PSR rules. That seems a fairly remote possibility, though it’s worth highlighting that they are subject to UEFA’s financial regulations too. European football’s governing body puts limits on squad expenditure — we project, based on player wages comprising 70 per cent of the total wage bill, that Arsenal were at around 60 per cent last season against a limit of 90 per cent — and losses, which are generally lower than the Premier League’s ones.

After deductions, we again expect Arsenal to be fine, although the club are carefully managing their current and future positions.


Soaring revenues reflect their on-pitch rise

Arsenal’s revenue increase last season was, in a word, huge. The world’s biggest clubs breaking their revenue records is hardly a rarity, but the extent of the improvement in their case was remarkable: turnover hit £616.6million in 2023-24, an annual increase of £150m, nearly a third. Even with the prize money and commercial benefits of Champions League football, that is still a massive uplift for a club who already boasted the 10th-highest income in world football.

Income increased across all three main revenue streams: matchday, broadcast and commercial. Mirroring that broader club record, Arsenal hit new highs in each stream. TV money was the highest at £262.3million but there was roughly 30 per cent growth across the board.

At the Emirates, gate receipts soared. Arsenal’s home has generated a nine-figure sum for the club on several occasions but last season’s £131.7million matchday income was a big increase on 2022-23 (£102.6m).

Advertisement

That was the byproduct of a couple of things.

For starters, Arsenal played one more home game last season (25) than in 2022-23. Four Europa League matches at the Emirates were replaced with five in the Champions League, enabling the club to charge higher prices for viewing a more prestigious competition. On top of that, Arsenal made ticketing changes in 2023-24, reducing the number of matches covered by a season ticket from 26 to 22 and implementing an increase in general admission season ticket prices of, on average, five per cent.

The result was Arsenal’s highest single-season gate receipts (by far) and the club leapt to second for matchday income domestically, having trailed Tottenham Hotspur in each of the last two seasons. Their matchday revenue was just £5.5million behind Manchester United’s last year, marking a significant narrowing between the two clubs: the gap had been over £30m in each of the previous two seasons. Though the Emirates may have held the club back for several years, the benefits of moving there are increasingly apparent. Since the stadium opened in 2006, Arsenal have booked combined gate receipts of £1.652bn, over four times its initial £390m build cost.

More predictable but no less important was the rise in TV money. The difference between the Europa League and the Champions League is stark. Arsenal earned £80.4million in broadcast revenue from last season’s run to the Champions League quarter-finals, over three times their takings for reaching the prior round of the Europa League in 2022-23.

Advertisement

Arguably most important was a surge in Arsenal’s commercial income.

Elite clubs have increasingly turned to sponsorship and marketing deals as a plentiful source of potential revenue, and Arsenal’s £218.3million commercial income marks both a big jump for the club and them catching up to domestic rivals. That likely still places Arsenal at the bottom of England’s ‘Big Six’ commercially, but they’ve closed the gap significantly. Chelsea’s commercial income was over £40m more than Arsenal’s in 2023; the distance between them now is around £7m.

Arsenal’s commercial revenues were driven by a kit supplier deal with Adidas (worth £75million per year), Emirates’ front-of-shirt sponsorship (£40m), Sobha Realty’s training-centre naming rights deal (£15m) and Visit Rwanda’s sleeve sponsorship (£10m).

Growth now and beyond looks certain too.

Advertisement

That Emirates deal was renewed at £60million per year, starting this season, while the club are expected to improve on sleeve sponsorship takings once the Visit Rwanda contract ends this summer.


A rising wage bill — yet still at the lower end of the elite

Believe it or not, the general improvement in on-pitch performances has also helped lighten the mood inside the Emirates. Financially, it is a club’s wage bill that tends to dictate where they’ll finish in a given season, yet Arsenal have been bucking that trend — and in a good way, too.

Arsenal’s wages had hovered around the £230million mark for years, increasing just £11.5m between 2018 and 2023. That was, in part, due to their lack of Champions League football and the attendant contractual bonuses qualifying for it brings. Matters changed in 2023-24, as the return to Europe’s elite competition coincided with a £93m (40 per cent) increase in the wage bill. Squad investment and renewed terms for star players including Bukayo Saka and William Saliba pushed staff costs to a record high.

Even so, that still only served to bring Arsenal closer to their rivals. The wage bills at Manchester City and Chelsea have topped £400million in recent years, while Liverpool (£387m last season) are closing in on that mark, too. Arsenal are spending more than they ever have on salaries, yet still trail several clubs they have surpassed on the field recently.

Advertisement

In the past two seasons, Arsenal under Arteta have significantly over-performed their wage bill. In 2022-23, they finished as runners-up with only the Premier League’s sixth-highest staff costs. Last year, they were second again with the fifth-highest.

That’s only a partial telling of the achievement too.

Consider that in each of those seasons, Arteta’s men provided the sole meaningful challenge to Manchester City’s domestic dominance and did so, particularly in that first year, with a wage bill that was hardly in the same ballpark as the champions’. In that treble-winning season for City, their wage bill was £188million ahead of Arsenal’s. That gap narrowed significantly last season, both as City’s staff costs fell slightly while Arsenal’s jumped, but was still £85m.

In each of those years, Arsenal had more administrative staff than City — underlining the stark difference in how much the clubs were paying their players.


From transfer misers to one of the biggest spenders

Arsenal’s spending in the transfer market has ramped up in recent years, another sign they are stepping out of the long shadow of their stadium build.

Advertisement

While net spend isn’t actually all that useful a metric on its own, it is telling that in six of Arsenal’s first seven years playing at the Emirates, their net transfer spend sat in the bottom half of the Premier League. In those circumstances, continually qualifying for the Champions League year-on-year was no mean feat.

Since the 2018-19 season, with KSE assuming sole ownership, Arsenal have undertaken a clear shift in strategy, parting with a net £857.2million transfer spend. That’s the second-highest in English football, only trailing Chelsea, and not far shy of trebling the club’s net spend in the previous six years (£310.5m). On a gross basis, Arsenal have now spent £991.7m in the past five years, a sum which puts them ahead of both City (£970.3m) and neighbours United (£918.3m). Chelsea’s £1.458bn spend from 2019 to 2023 is still way off in the distance, but, at the Emirates, a club who were once relative misers in terms of transfers have considerably loosened the purse strings.

Up to the end of May last year, Arsenal’s existing squad had been assembled for £882.4million. That’s a big figure, though a look around the division helps explain why the club have felt the need to invest so heavily.

Even with the second-highest transfer outlay of recent years, Arsenal’s squad is only ranked fourth when it comes to the cost of assembling it, with each of the two Manchester clubs’ historic spending ensuring theirs were still costlier than the one at Arteta’s disposal. City and Chelsea had each spent over £1billion on their existing squads at the date of their most recent accounts, while the cost of United’s ticked over that mark in the first quarter of the current season.

Advertisement

Arsenal’s transfer spending has been lofty, but they’ve also been playing catch-up.


Shareholder loans are low-interest and now top £300m – but is that the whole story?

Recent months have seen a growing focus on shareholder loans, with Premier League clubs voting in November to bring them into line with how other associated party transactions (APTs) are treated.

Clubs will be required to account for shareholder loans at fair market value (FMV), meaning those that don’t currently do so stand to take a hit in the form of increased interest costs. That will impact not only a club’s bottom lines but, by extension, their PSR calculations too.

Arsenal now owe £324.1million to KSE, with the owner having provided another £61.9m in cash loans last season.

The club would therefore seem ripe for punishment under the amended APT rules. Yet Arsenal voted in favour of the changes. Manchester City, with no shareholder loans on their books, voted against them. If that seems strange, consider the nuances of these new rules. The APT amendments — which adapted prior regulations recently struck down as ‘void and unenforceable’ — dictated that only loans drawn down from owners after November 22, 2024, are required to be recorded at FMV. Any monies drawn down before then, while potentially subject to an FMV assessment, would not require adjustments to club figures.

Advertisement

Or at least they don’t right now. City’s seemingly never-ending courtroom tussles with the Premier League took on a new dimension recently, with the club seeking to have those November amendments declared null and void too.

Any further changes from that challenge remain to be seen but, at the moment, Arsenal’s existing £324.1m owing to their owners won’t incur increased costs. Any amounts drawn down since November 22 last year will have to be accounted for at FMV, but only those additional drawdowns. What could have amounted to a sizeable sum — at one point, there were suggestions that interest costs adjustments might be backdated across the entire span of the loans, something City (and any others in support of their view) are expected to push for if the November amendments are declared unlawful — getting whacked onto the club’s PSR calculation will instead be much smaller, if present at all.

If that seems unfair, then it’s worth considering what that money borrowed from KSE was actually for. Or the bulk of it at least.

The loans came on board in the 2020-21 season, but weren’t new debt. Before that season, Arsenal were already carrying £218million in debt, £187m of that being bonds related to the Emirates Stadium build. Those bonds were linked to gate revenues, which nosedived due to the pandemic. KSE stepped in and refinanced the loans, incurring a £32m break cost (the amount the club were charged for ending the loans earlier than planned) in the process, meaning just about all of Arsenal’s debt is now owed to their owners.

Advertisement

Before that refinancing, KSE was already owed £15million, and the total amount due to the owners has risen from £201.6m in 2021 to £324.1m at the end of last season. That extra £122.5m has primarily gone toward squad strengthening, so there’s an argument Arsenal have gained a sporting advantage. Yet that would ignore the price of KSE restructuring those debts in 2021; the £32m in break costs is currently far more than the club would have incurred in interest if the additional amount loaned since had been recorded at FMV, though that argument will wane the longer the shareholder loans remain in place.

What’s more, the loans from KSE aren’t interest-free.

In each of the past four financial years, Arsenal have incurred interest costs on ‘Other’ items (which includes the KSE loans), with these hitting £7.8m last season. As a percentage of the average loan balance across last season, that’s an effective interest rate of 2.7 per cent. Not market rate, granted, but not a free ride either.


What next?

Despite another annual loss, Arsenal’s most recent accounts reflect a club on the up.

With revenue soaring and those losses coming down, all as the team become much more competitive on the pitch, it’s clear the Arsenal of today are some way removed from the situation when KSE first assumed full control six and a half years ago.

Advertisement

Whether the relative largesse of the period since then continues remains to be seen. It is no secret that KSE, like other Premier League owners with sporting interests on both sides of the Atlantic, are keen to reach a point of sustainability. There’s little likelihood of their £324million loan being repaid any time soon, but Arsenal’s transfer activity this season points to slowing activity. They spent a net £21m in the summer, then nothing in the winter window.

Even so, it seems unlikely they won’t invest in the squad again for next season. Football is increasingly an arms race, so it would make little sense for KSE and Arsenal to spend as much as they have in the past half-decade only to then turn the taps off completely. For all the club’s growth, they’ve still not won top honours at home or abroad, outside the 2019-20 FA Cup; reining in spending would make that task rather more difficult, and you can be sure their competitors wouldn’t follow suit.

Promisingly, Arsenal’s day-to-day operating cash flow has ballooned recently, increasing the likelihood the first team can remain competitive even if KSE chooses to slow its own input. The club’s £176.1million cash generated from operations in 2023-24 might well be a Premier League high for that season, and takes them past the most recent figures at historically strong cash-generators Tottenham (£131.2m) and Manchester United (£121.2m).

Much of that increased cash came via their Champions League return. Arsenal’s upcoming two-leg quarter-final against Real Madrid might not be viewed with much envy, but getting to the last eight is estimated to have made the club at least another €100million (£84m/$109m) in prize money. Get past the reigning champions and they’ll bank a further €15m for reaching the semis, with €18.5m on offer for a spot in May’s final and a further €6.5m if they were to win it all.

Even if they go out against Madrid next month, this season looks to be the most lucrative European campaign in Arsenal’s history. Their estimated prize money from UEFA competition over the past two seasons, £164.4million, is almost as much as the previous six combined (£165.8m).

Advertisement

Arsenal fans might ask why the club didn’t invest in much-needed striking options in the winter transfer window.

It’s a valid question but they have spent sizeably in recent years. Perhaps no deal made financial sense in the winter. Those supporters can expect more spending from their club this summer.

(Top photos: Getty Images; design: Eamonn Dalton)

Advertisement

Finance

RFSD board approves financial assurances, reviews annual audit

Published

on

RFSD board approves financial assurances, reviews annual audit

The Roaring Fork School District Board of Education approved its annual financial accreditation assurances and reviewed the district’s 2024-25 audited financial statements during its meeting on Wednesday, according to a district news release.

The audit, presented by McMahan and Associates, found the district’s overall financial position to be stable and identified areas for continued improvement in internal controls and financial processes. The district’s General Fund balance remains above minimum levels required by board policy.

Chief Financial Officer Christy Chicoine said the audit reflects progress following prior concerns identified in earlier reviews.



“We have made significant improvements compared to the prior year’s audit as a Finance Department, and I am grateful for the finance team’s commitment towards those improvements as demonstrated in this audit,” Chicoine said. “While we still have work to do to continue to sustain and enhance the district’s fiscal management, the audit report indicates we are clearly headed in the right direction.”

Superintendent Anna Cole said the findings validate work undertaken over the past two years to rebuild internal systems and improve transparency.

Advertisement



“Over the past two years, our teams have worked diligently and transparently to rebuild internal financial systems that left the district at risk,” Cole said. “The outcomes of this audit are evidence that we are on track.”

Cole said the timing of the audit is significant as the district begins developing its budget for the 2026-27 school year and faces mounting external pressures.

“We couldn’t have stabilized internal systems at a better time,” she said. “As we begin the budgeting process for the 26/27 school year, we face external challenges like declining enrollment, instability of state and federal funding, and a rising cost of living that is outpacing staff and teacher salaries. This audit is an important confirmation that our finances are in order as we prepare to navigate oncoming challenges.”

Board President Lindsay DeFrates said the board is better positioned to plan ahead following the audit’s conclusions.

Advertisement

“We are grateful for the leadership of Chief Chicoine and the hard work of the district finance and human resources teams,” DeFrates said. “We are now in a much better place financially and will move forward with clarity, transparency and accountability, able to better navigate the challenges to come.”

Continue Reading

Finance

UK’s Former Finance Minister George Osborne Joins Coinbase – Coinspeaker

Published

on

UK’s Former Finance Minister George Osborne Joins Coinbase – Coinspeaker

Key Notes

  • Former UK finance minister George Osborne is joining Coinbase’s Global Advisory Council.
  • Osborne will focus on crypto regulation, stablecoins, and tokenized assets across the UK and EU.
  • The exchange is also expanding beyond crypto trading as it steps into 2026.

Coinbase has appointed former UK finance minister George Osborne as chair of its Global Advisory Council. It is clear that the American crypto exchange wants to deepen its influence with governments outside the United States.

Earlier this week, Coinbase tested the waters in India as its deal to acquire a minority stake in local crypto trading platform CoinDCX was approved by the Competition Commission of India.


https://twitter.com/CCI_India/status/2000905244080034292

Coinbase Expands Policy Reach Beyond the US

Coinbase confirmed that Osborne will take a more active role in advising on government engagement worldwide, with a focus on Britain and the European Union.

Osborne, who first joined Coinbase as an adviser in January 2024, will be based in London. He will work closely with policymakers on issues related to crypto regulation, stablecoins, and tokenized assets.

Coinbase’s chief policy officer Faryar Shirzad said the crypto exchange has already become a powerful lobbying force outside the US. In the UK, the company is pushing for clearer rules on tax treatment, stablecoin payments, and the use of tokenized assets in capital markets.

Advertisement

Osborne’s Background

Osborne served as the UK’s finance minister from 2010 until 2016, stepping down after the Brexit referendum. Since leaving politics, he has built a broad private-sector portfolio.

He currently chairs the British Museum, is a partner at investment bank Robey Warshaw, and leads Lingotto Investment Management.

Just days before the Coinbase announcement, OpenAI named Osborne to support its overseas data centre expansion under its global infrastructure program. His appointment to Coinbase adds crypto and blockchain policy to an already wide-ranging list of responsibilities.

Expansion Across Crypto

According to an earlier report, at its recent System Update event, Coinbase revealed plans to expand into stock trading, prediction markets, custom stablecoins, tokenization platforms, and AI-powered investment advisers.

Coinbase has already launched stock trading and prediction markets on its platform and now rivals firms such as Robinhood and eToro. The exchange has also partnered with Kalshi to offer markets tied to real-world events such as sports, elections, and economic data.

Advertisement

The exchange’s long-term goal is to become an all-in-one financial platform that operates around the clock.

Meanwhile, Deutsche Bank recently initiated coverage with a buy rating, according to CNBC. Analysts expect the company’s broader new everything-in-one strategy to reduce its dependence on crypto trading volumes as it scales into 2026.

next

Disclaimer: Coinspeaker is committed to providing unbiased and transparent reporting. This article aims to deliver accurate and timely information but should not be taken as financial or investment advice. Since market conditions can change rapidly, we encourage you to verify information on your own and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content.

Coinbase News, Cryptocurrency News, News

Advertisement

A crypto journalist with over 5 years of experience in the industry, Parth has worked with major media outlets in the crypto and finance world, gathering experience and expertise in the space after surviving bear and bull markets over the years. Parth is also an author of 4 self-published books.

Parth Dubey on LinkedIn


Advertisement
Continue Reading

Finance

Equipment finance outlook optimistic as legislation, investment bolster industry

Published

on

Equipment finance outlook optimistic as legislation, investment bolster industry

After difficulties this year, next year looks to be better for the equipment finance industry as government legislation and investment in data centers and AI provide opportunities for financiers. 

The U.S. economy heads into 2026 resilient, with real gross domestic product growth of 1.8% and a 6.2% increase in equipment and software investment, according to the 2026 Equipment Leasing & Finance U.S. Economic Outlook, released today by the Equipment Leasing and Finance Foundation. Strong equipment demand, AI-driven capital spending and equity market strength should drive growth for the industry. 

ELFA 2026 Economic Forecasts
(Courtesy/Equipment Leasing and Finance Association)

Rather than a typical temporary cyclical downturn, after 2025 the equipment industry faces a systemic change, Michael Sharov, a partner in consulting firm Oliver Wyman’s Transportation and Advanced Industrials practice, told Equipment Finance News. Evolving channels, customer fragmentation, labor shortages, and digital and supplier realignment will drive change and create opportunities for dealers, lenders and OEMs. 

“Systemic change is going to happen, but the industries are not going to fall apart.” — Michael Sharov, transportation and advanced industrial partner, Oliver Wyman

The equipment industry can still prosper because they serve “essential use” industries such as food, infrastructure and materials, “so there is high confidence in recovery, as long as everyone does not hunker down, but uses this downturn,” he said.

Amid restructuring, lenders face battles around asset transparency, uptime and service capacity, changing underwriting factors, longer trade cycles and elevated importance of used equipment, even with the strong long-term outlook, Sharov said. 

In industries such as transportation, mergers and acquisitions will allow stronger players to pick up clients as capacity shifts across the industry, Anthony Sasso, head of TD Equipment Finance and senior vice president at TD Bank, told EFN. 

Advertisement

“There are more opportunities for companies to pick up good clients for those companies that are financially sound and well-heeled,” he said. “We’re seeing that today.” 

Equipment finance industry set for growth 

Meanwhile, the equipment finance industry appears set for growth in 2026 alongside the U.S. economy’s recovery following a year plagued by economic uncertainty, Cedric Chehab, chief economist at economic research firm BMI, said during a Dec. 11 webinar. 

Factors supporting industry growth include fiscal stimulus and bonus depreciation because of the One, Big, Beautiful Bill Act, additional Federal Reserve rate cuts that are anticipated, resilient corporate profitability and earnings, and especially, continued investment in AI and data centers, which could affect the economy on multiple levels, Chehab said. 

“When you combine the huge strengths of AI and the software around AI and the LLMs and how they interact with machines and robotics, they could boost productivity even further,” he said. “Many economies, and in particular the U.S. economy, are pursuing aggressive industrial policy, driving investment in cutting-edge technology, which will not only foster greater competition to a degree, but really accelerate the pace of development of these technologies.”

Deductions, depreciation under OBBBA

A full year under the One Big, Beautiful Bill Act, which was signed by President Donald Trump on July 4, should spur equipment investment, especially for the equipment sectors in need of recovery, according to a Nov. 19 Wells Fargo research note. 

Advertisement

“By making bonus depreciation permanent, firms can fully expense capital equipment, machinery and qualifying real estate improvements,” according to the note. “This change, along with other tax incentives, reduced policy uncertainty and lower borrowing rates, should provide support to investment growth next year and keep the CapEx cycle rolling.” 

While increased deductions, bonus depreciation and financing can improve liquidity to help pay for replacement assets, weak trucking and finance fundamentals mean the incentives alone may not be enough to drive new equipment purchases, TD’s Sasso said. 

“That’s probably one of the areas that, if you see an uptick in that, it may promote more CapEx spending, and this not only applies to the trucking vertical, but it’s for a number of other verticals,” he said. “If you see more CapEx spend, then you’d see the financing go along with that, and that’s where those benefits would kick in.” 

Data centers boost construction 

Investment in data centers and technology is also expected to continue in 2026, according to the Wells Fargo note. 

“The race to build out the next generation of AI capabilities with the latest information processing equipment, software and new data centers has led capital spending to charge ahead despite elevated policy uncertainty,” according to the note. “But this concentration in tech spending glosses over undeniable weakness in more traditional CapEx categories, such as transportation equipment and commercial construction.”

Advertisement
Wells Fargo Tech InvestmentWells Fargo Tech Investment
(Courtesy/Wells Fargo)

Data centers also require significant capital, with financing for U.S. data centers projected to reach $60 billion in 2025, according to a Dec. 11 release from the Equipment Leasing and Finance Foundation focused on data centers.  

In the wider construction segment, sentiment toward growth remains cautious in some regions, with nearly half of construction firms in the Minneapolis Federal Reserve region feeling more pessimistic than they did in mid-2025, Erick Luna, director of regional outreach for the region, said during a Dec. 12 webinar. 

“Some of the same challenges showed up in this change of outlook, a slowdown in projects, reduced RFPs, tariffs, etc.,” he said. “Almost half [of the firms] expected backlogs to keep contracting, and in turn, [fewer] projects will be completed and so on.” 

Equipment industry faces more challenges 

Meanwhile, executives rated the state of the industrials market a 5.7 out of 10, down from 8 last year, according to Oliver Wyman’s 2025 State of Industrial Goods North America, Non-Road report, released on Dec. 3. The report surveyed 105 equipment manufacturer executives in conjunction with the Association of Equipment Manufacturers. 

Exhibit 1: Rating of the current state of industrial goods sectorsExhibit 1: Rating of the current state of industrial goods sectors
(Courtesy/Oliver Wyman)

Looking ahead, indicators such as farm receipts, construction activity, residential starts and large data center projects will be central to assessing demand across agriculture and construction, Nate Savona, a partner in Oliver Wyman’s Transportation and Advanced Industrials practice, told EFN. 

“What we got from the members that we worked with who are living and breathing the industry is there is cautious optimism, but they’re not feeling great right now. The original sentiment for the [State of Industrial Goods] report was done six months ago or so, and then we revisited the question in the past month, and the sentiment was the same, so it hasn’t gotten better yet.” — Nate Savona, transportation and advanced industrial partner, Oliver Wyman

While the outlook for 2026 does come with optimism, BMI’s Chehab pointed to several risk factors, including: 

  • A weakening labor market;  
  • Higher-than-expected inflation;  
  • Limited Fed easing due to inflation;  
  • Financial market volatility due to a potential AI bubble;  
  • Escalating trade tensions; and  
  • Political uncertainty tied to midterm elections. 

Despite the challenges, there’s cautious optimism for 2026, with the potential rebound of the trucking industry on the back of improving values serving as a bellwether for the broader economy, TD’s Sasso said. 

“When you look at values, we may be in a trough right now where we’ve hit the bottom, and hopefully those valuations, we’re going to see coming back up,” he said. “Overall, there’s much more optimism going into 2026, and hopefully that is the case that would benefit all businesses, including ours.” 

Advertisement

Check out our exclusive industry data here 

Continue Reading

Trending