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Recession? Really? Come on…: Morning Brief

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Recession? Really? Come on…: Morning Brief

This is The Takeaway from today’s Morning Brief, which you can sign up to receive in your inbox every morning along with:

And just like that, everyone is a recession expert.

Two weeks ago, most self-proclaimed finance experts hadn’t uttered the word recession since it was fashionable in late 2022/early 2023.

From late July to early August, the prevailing sentiment of those seemingly in the know was 1) Nvidia (NVDA) shares were due for another 50% move after earnings on Aug. 28; 2) a 10% year-end rally for the S&P 500; and 3) a 100% move in Nvidia’s stock price in 2025.

Yet here we are, with the pros scaring the heck out of everyone the past week on the potential for a recession after a “bad” jobs report last Friday. Two top Wall Street banks raised their recession probabilities this week, for example.

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These pros have voiced their concerns on TV, social media, and in research reports, but they also conveyed them to global trading desks. Markets were pushed into choppy seas as crowded AI trades such as AMD (AMD) have been dumped, with no nod to their underlying fundamentals.

All this recession talk feels like BS to me, an excuse to shake out the average investor so institutional players could get back into high-flying names at cheaper prices. Everyone does know that a recession often means negative economic growth, right? Or a significant slowdown in the economy that lasts quarters or even years?

So the US economy is going to go from 2.8% second quarter GDP growth and a long period of steady expansion to slightly negative growth or worse sometime within the next six months? An economy still creating a good clip of jobs each month is going to begin producing job losses in the near future?

Where is the evidence to support this? What’s the trigger for it? Don’t hit me up on X, formerly Twitter, and say it’s interest rates because the economy has been doing just fine during this high rate period.

Lost in recession BS this week was an ISM services report, which includes data on business activity, new orders, employment, and supplier deliveries. The index clocked in at 51.4%, up from 48.8% in June.

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Numbers over 50% are seen as positive for the economy. Most companies in the report said business was either flat or expanding gradually.

Then, initial jobless claims totaled a seasonally adjusted 233,000 for the week — a drop of 17,000. The Street was looking for a print of around 240,000.

Corporate earnings season has gone quite well too. The majority of well-known public companies are easily beating sales and profit forecasts, not shocking the masses with giant misses. Outlooks have been solid.

That’s recessionary? Come on!

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Now, I am not going to sit here and blow smoke and say everything is peachy. Many households are struggling to make ends meet because of sticky inflation, something I was reminded of when chatting with P&G’s (PG) CEO Jon Moeller a week ago.

I think the interview by Yahoo Finance’s Brooke DiPalma at the NYSE with Dine Brands (DIN) CEO John Peyton was also eye-opening on this front.

“It’s a value war. It’s a fight for share of wallet. … At a time when our target guest is dining out less, we have to make sure that when they do choose to dine out — IHOP or Applebee’s or Fuzzy’s are their first choice,” Peyton said.

The same goes for DiPalma’s exclusive interview with Molson Coors (TAP) CEO Gavin Hattersley.

“Consumers [are] making different pack sizes choices,” Hattersley said. He said this behavior has been going on “for a while” and is “pretty consistent through through Q2.”

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Conversations I had this past week with top leaders further shed light on these macro challenges.

Disney (DIS) CFO Hugh Johnston told me demand at its theme parks tailed off in the final few weeks of the quarter. The company sees this slowdown persisting for the next few quarters.

“We certainly see consumers behaving in a way — I wouldn’t call it recessionary necessarily — they’re watching their pennies a little bit more,” Johnston said. Lost in the sauce, though, was a strong quarter for Disney’s streaming businesses. In a recession, people usually cut unnecessary expenses.

Ralph Lauren (RL) CEO Patrice Louvet told me (video above) this when I asked him if the consumer is behaving recessionary: “I think it’s pretty clear wherever you look that the overall consumer is being pressured by the cumulative effect of inflationary pressures and interest rates. As far as our core consumer is concerned, we actually find them to be very resilient.”

The company still notched sales growth in its North American stores.

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All in all, you don’t get the sense the economy has already jumped over a cliff and is falling to the ground. As a result, it’s hard to justify some of these severe down days we have witnessed in markets this week.

What appears to be unfolding is a gradual cooling in the economy that could prove short-lived, especially if the Fed cuts rates, as Cognizant (CTSH) CEO Ravi Kumar told me on my Opening Bid podcast this week.

Labor market developments of late “seem more consistent with post-reopening normalization and gradual rates drag than any current shock or accelerating weakness but the risk is present,” said 22V Research strategist Peter Williams in a note this week.

I think that’s a fair assessment. What’s not fair is all this recession hysteria talk.

Three times each week, I field insight-filled conversations with the biggest names in business and markets on my Opening Bid podcast. Find more episodes on our video hub. Watch on your preferred streaming service. Or listen and subscribe on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you find your favorite podcasts.

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In the below Opening Bid episode, Trump’s former nominee to the Federal Reserve Judy Shelton shares why the Fed should be focused on 0% inflation.

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Financing Sports’ Future: Private Credit Steps Into the Arena

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Financing Sports’ Future: Private Credit Steps Into the Arena

Today’s guest column is by Joseph Glatt, co-chair of the global Private Credit Group at Paul, Weiss.

The business of sports has evolved into one of the most sophisticated capital markets in the world. Franchises that once relied on wealthy patrons now operate as global enterprises with complex balance sheets, diversified revenue streams and brand portfolios that span continents. Behind the scenes, a quiet transformation is taking place. Private credit has become the financing engine powering the next phase of the industry’s growth.

For decades, the financial architecture of sports was narrow. Teams depended on a mix of owner equity, bank loans and broadcast advances. That model worked when sports was seasonal, media rights were centralized, and stadiums were used a few dozen times a year.

Today the business is more complicated. Digital engagement has replaced ticket sales as the primary growth driver, broadcast rights are fragmented across platforms, and venues have become year-round entertainment ecosystems. Private credit brings structure, speed and sophistication to a business that is increasingly complex and ever-evolving.

The appeal is obvious. Sports franchises have matured from passion assets into performance assets. Media rights, sponsorships, premium seating, licensing and real estate all provide recurring cash flows—a profile that looks less like entertainment and more like infrastructure. For credit investors searching for yield with tangible downside protection, it’s a natural fit.

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What distinguishes the current wave of sports lending is its focus on assets. Lenders are financing discrete pieces of the ecosystem rather than entire teams—broadcast receivables, naming rights, arena redevelopment or ancillary real estate. A stadium backed by long-term contracts and naming agreements can support senior debt that behaves much like project finance. The economics are stable, the security is visible, and the exposure is detached from game outcomes. It’s a structural rather than sentimental approach to sports finance.

This shift has attracted institutional capital on a scale that would have been unthinkable a few years ago. Pension funds, insurers and global asset managers now view sports as a legitimate component of their private credit portfolios. The logic is straightforward. The sector offers infrastructure-like cash flows with entertainment-driven growth. European football clubs have refinanced legacy debt with private credit facilities. North American franchises have used direct lending to fund media rights and working-capital needs. Even emerging leagues and women’s sports organizations are turning to private lenders to build facilities and extend reach. The flow of capital is both a cause and a consequence of the sector’s institutionalization.

The sophistication of these transactions reflects a growing recognition that sports carries unique risks. Revenues can fluctuate with team performance or media cycles, and valuations can move with public sentiment.

The best lenders manage this through structure rather than pricing. Deals often include covenants tied to attendance, sponsorship renewals or season-ticket deposits. Some of them link pricing to revenue performance or secure cross-collateralization between real estate and media income. The emphasis is on aligning capital with the rhythm of the underlying business, not imposing a one-size-fits-all template.

The opportunity extends beyond the professional leagues that dominate headlines. Collegiate athletics, youth sports and ancillary service providers are entering a commercial era of their own.

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The legalization of name, image and likeness rights has turned college programs into fully commercial enterprises that now require working capital, facilities financing and sponsorship advances. Private lenders can design structures suited to that environment—secured against receivables, ticket income or local partnerships—where traditional financing models fall short.

Youth and amateur sports tell a similar story. The sector generates tens of billions of dollars in annual spending, yet capital formation remains fragmented. Financing of complexes, tournaments and training facilities have become scalable credit opportunities, driven by durable demand rather than speculation.

Real estate has also become inseparable from the business of sports. Stadiums are now anchors of mixed-use developments that include hotels, retail and housing. Teams are monetizing their brands across hospitality, content and data ventures. That convergence between physical and intangible assets creates a dual source of collateral. A stadium’s concrete and steel can be valued like infrastructure, while its media contracts and licensing revenue resemble corporate cash flows. Private credit thrives in precisely this intersection, where structure can integrate both sides of the balance sheet.

This new market is maturing quickly. The challenge now is discipline. Not every team or league deserves institutional credit. The fundamentals must be right: diversified revenue, credible governance and transparent capital structures. The most capable lenders operate more like strategic partners than passive financiers. They help management teams optimize balance sheets, monetize non-core assets and think creatively about liquidity. The value in these relationships lies in partnership, not just pricing.

Looking ahead, the next decade of sports capital will likely involve consolidation and securitization. Portfolios of sports-backed loans may be packaged into rated vehicles, widening access to institutional investors. Cross-border ownership will further globalize the ecosystem, blending European clubs, American franchises and Middle Eastern sovereign funds into a single capital network. That will require not just financial innovation but also regulatory fluency and geopolitical awareness.

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Private credit’s entry into sports is not a passing trend. It marks a structural evolution in how capital supports one of the world’s most powerful industries. Sports is now a platform business, and platform businesses demand flexible, sophisticated financing.

The investors leading this transformation think not in seasons but in cycles. They understand that the scoreboard measures only part of the game. The real competition is for capital efficiency, and those who master it will define the future of sports finance.

Glatt has over 25 years of experience in private practice and in-house at one of the world’s largest alternative asset managers, with a particular focus on complex transactions, strategic product innovation and capital raising for asset management firms and financial institutions.

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Mahopac to require personal financial literacy for high school graduation. Will NY follow?

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Mahopac to require personal financial literacy for high school graduation. Will NY follow?
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Mahopac School District has become the first in New York to make personal financial literacy a graduation requirement, following a statewide push to strengthen personal financial education, according to the district.

The initiative, adopted by the Mahopac School Board on Nov. 18, aligns with a recent state Education Department proposal that would require personal finance instruction for all K-12 public school students.

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Under the program, Seal of Financial Literacy, Mahopac students beginning with the Class of 2028 must complete a series of courses and a capstone project to graduate.   

The goal is to equip students with essential life skills at a time when financial decisions are increasingly complex and the cost of living continues to rise, Mahopac School District interim Superintendent Frank Miele said in a statement.

“Learning about money is the path to success for every student,” said Miele. “When our students understand saving, spending, investing, managing credit, and planning for their futures, we empower them to step into adulthood with confidence.”

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What’s included in the Seal of Financial Literacy?

Starting with the Class of 2028, Mahopac graduates will be required to earn the Seal of Financial Literacy to receive their diplomas. Students in grades 8-12 will learn personal finance concepts through integrated units in courses such as English, math, social studies and economics. Seniors will complete a capstone project in which they develop a personal financial plan based on a post-high school scenario, whether attending college, entering the workforce, starting a business or serving in the miliary.

“It’s not radical for an 18-year-old to think about their long-term career goals and retirement plan,” said Tanner McCracken, a Mahopac School Board trustee who spearheaded the initiative. “Making personal financial literacy a graduation requirement has been a dream of mine since I was first elected to the school board at 20 years old. It’s something my generation is eager to learn, and I’m proud we got it done.”

More than 475 students in the Class of 2026 and 2027 will qualify for the program before it becomes a universal requirement in 2028, according to McCracken.

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Local initiative precedes proposed statewide financial literacy mandate

Mahopac’s move comes as the state Education Department is considering adding personal finance education to graduation requirements.

Under the proposal, personal finance instruction would be required in middle and high schools starting in 2026-27 school year and expanded to elementary schools in 2027.

Schools would have flexibility to teach the material through integrated coursework, stand-alone classes or career and technical education programs. Instructional topics include budgeting and money management, credit and debt management, earning income, risk management and saving and investing.        

The proposal is currently open for public comment through Jan. 19, with the Board of Regents expected to make a decision in March.

Helu Wang covers economic growth, real estate and education for The Journal News/lohud and USA Today Network. Reach her at hwang@gannett.com and follow her @helu.wangny on Instagram.

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Italy Considers Backing Spain to Lead Euro-Area Finance Chiefs

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Italy Considers Backing Spain to Lead Euro-Area Finance Chiefs
Italy’s Finance Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti isn’t interested in bidding for the newly available euro-area finance chief post, but may consider backing his Spanish counterpart Carlos Cuerpo, according to people familiar with the matter.
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