Finance

Recession? Really? Come on…: Morning Brief

Published

1 year ago

August 11, 2024

Recession? Really? Come on…: Morning Brief

This is The Takeaway from today’s Morning Brief, which you can sign up to receive in your inbox every morning along with:

And just like that, everyone is a recession expert.

Two weeks ago, most self-proclaimed finance experts hadn’t uttered the word recession since it was fashionable in late 2022/early 2023.

From late July to early August, the prevailing sentiment of those seemingly in the know was 1) Nvidia (NVDA) shares were due for another 50% move after earnings on Aug. 28; 2) a 10% year-end rally for the S&P 500; and 3) a 100% move in Nvidia’s stock price in 2025.

Yet here we are, with the pros scaring the heck out of everyone the past week on the potential for a recession after a “bad” jobs report last Friday. Two top Wall Street banks raised their recession probabilities this week, for example.

These pros have voiced their concerns on TV, social media, and in research reports, but they also conveyed them to global trading desks. Markets were pushed into choppy seas as crowded AI trades such as AMD (AMD) have been dumped, with no nod to their underlying fundamentals.

All this recession talk feels like BS to me, an excuse to shake out the average investor so institutional players could get back into high-flying names at cheaper prices. Everyone does know that a recession often means negative economic growth, right? Or a significant slowdown in the economy that lasts quarters or even years?

So the US economy is going to go from 2.8% second quarter GDP growth and a long period of steady expansion to slightly negative growth or worse sometime within the next six months? An economy still creating a good clip of jobs each month is going to begin producing job losses in the near future?

Where is the evidence to support this? What’s the trigger for it? Don’t hit me up on X, formerly Twitter, and say it’s interest rates because the economy has been doing just fine during this high rate period.

Lost in recession BS this week was an ISM services report, which includes data on business activity, new orders, employment, and supplier deliveries. The index clocked in at 51.4%, up from 48.8% in June.

Numbers over 50% are seen as positive for the economy. Most companies in the report said business was either flat or expanding gradually.

Then, initial jobless claims totaled a seasonally adjusted 233,000 for the week — a drop of 17,000. The Street was looking for a print of around 240,000.

Corporate earnings season has gone quite well too. The majority of well-known public companies are easily beating sales and profit forecasts, not shocking the masses with giant misses. Outlooks have been solid.

That’s recessionary? Come on!

Now, I am not going to sit here and blow smoke and say everything is peachy. Many households are struggling to make ends meet because of sticky inflation, something I was reminded of when chatting with P&G’s (PG) CEO Jon Moeller a week ago.

I think the interview by Yahoo Finance’s Brooke DiPalma at the NYSE with Dine Brands (DIN) CEO John Peyton was also eye-opening on this front.

“It’s a value war. It’s a fight for share of wallet. … At a time when our target guest is dining out less, we have to make sure that when they do choose to dine out — IHOP or Applebee’s or Fuzzy’s are their first choice,” Peyton said.

The same goes for DiPalma’s exclusive interview with Molson Coors (TAP) CEO Gavin Hattersley.

“Consumers [are] making different pack sizes choices,” Hattersley said. He said this behavior has been going on “for a while” and is “pretty consistent through through Q2.”

Conversations I had this past week with top leaders further shed light on these macro challenges.

Disney (DIS) CFO Hugh Johnston told me demand at its theme parks tailed off in the final few weeks of the quarter. The company sees this slowdown persisting for the next few quarters.

“We certainly see consumers behaving in a way — I wouldn’t call it recessionary necessarily — they’re watching their pennies a little bit more,” Johnston said. Lost in the sauce, though, was a strong quarter for Disney’s streaming businesses. In a recession, people usually cut unnecessary expenses.

Ralph Lauren (RL) CEO Patrice Louvet told me (video above) this when I asked him if the consumer is behaving recessionary: “I think it’s pretty clear wherever you look that the overall consumer is being pressured by the cumulative effect of inflationary pressures and interest rates. As far as our core consumer is concerned, we actually find them to be very resilient.”

The company still notched sales growth in its North American stores.

All in all, you don’t get the sense the economy has already jumped over a cliff and is falling to the ground. As a result, it’s hard to justify some of these severe down days we have witnessed in markets this week.

What appears to be unfolding is a gradual cooling in the economy that could prove short-lived, especially if the Fed cuts rates, as Cognizant (CTSH) CEO Ravi Kumar told me on my Opening Bid podcast this week.

Labor market developments of late “seem more consistent with post-reopening normalization and gradual rates drag than any current shock or accelerating weakness but the risk is present,” said 22V Research strategist Peter Williams in a note this week.

I think that’s a fair assessment. What’s not fair is all this recession hysteria talk.

Three times each week, I field insight-filled conversations with the biggest names in business and markets on my Opening Bid podcast. Find more episodes on our video hub. Watch on your preferred streaming service. Or listen and subscribe on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you find your favorite podcasts.

In the below Opening Bid episode, Trump’s former nominee to the Federal Reserve Judy Shelton shares why the Fed should be focused on 0% inflation.

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Finance

Plano-Based Finance of America Announces $2.5B Partnership with Funds Managed by Blue Owl to Expand FOA’s Home Equity Lending

Published

8 hours ago

December 12, 2025

Press Room

Plano-Based Finance of America Announces .5B Partnership with Funds Managed by Blue Owl to Expand FOA’s Home Equity Lending

Graham Fleming, CEO of Finance of America [Composite image; source: Finance of America/DI Studio]

Finance of America Companies, a leading provider of home equity-based financing solutions for a modern retirement, and funds managed by Blue Owl Capital, a leading alternative asset manager, announced an enhanced $2.5 billion strategic partnership to accelerate product innovation and distribution for the nation’s fast-growing retirement demographic.

With more than 10,000 Americans entering retirement age every day, the market for home equity access continues to expand. FOA said its collaboration with New York City-based Blue Owl positions it to capture significant share in this rapidly evolving sector.

“This is a pivotal moment not just for Finance of America, but for the senior finance market as a whole,” Graham Fleming, CEO of Finance of America, said in a statement. “By aligning with Blue Owl, we are creating a platform of scale and innovation to better serve one of the fastest-growing demographics in the United States.”

The enhanced partnership includes, per FOA:

$2.5 billion commitment for new product innovation, providing scale and liquidity to support origination growth across multiple asset classes
$50 million equity investment in Finance of America, enhancing long-term alignment between the companies and supporting FOA’s continued growth initiatives
Joint innovation and product-development initiative focused on the continuous rollout of new, differentiated financial products tailored for people looking to maximize freedom, security, and opportunity throughout their retirement

This product expansion will complement FOA’s existing industry-leading reverse mortgage product suite while strengthening the company’s commitment to innovation and its role as a leader in delivering powerful financial solutions for retirees.

FOA said it continues to empower retirees with responsible, flexible access to capital to support aging in place, healthcare expenses, and lifestyle goals.

The partnership reinforces Finance of America’s mission to provide comprehensive, retirement-focused financial solutions, with the goal of expanding beyond reverse mortgages to become the nation’s leading, full-spectrum home equity lending platform, the company said.

“We believe Finance of America is uniquely positioned to redefine how financial products are delivered to retirees,” said David Aidi, senior managing director and co-head of Asset Based Finance at Blue Owl.

“This partnership provides the capital, the strategic alignment, and the innovation engine to build category-defining products at scale,” added Ray Chan, senior managing director and co-head of Asset Based Finance at Blue Owl.

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Finance

Bérangère Michel announced as BBC Group Chief Financial Officer

Published

20 hours ago

December 12, 2025

Press Room

Bérangère Michel announced as BBC Group Chief Financial Officer

The BBC has announced that Bérangère Michel has been appointed to the role of Group Chief Financial Officer.

Bérangère brings extensive experience from her 16-year career at the John Lewis Partnership, where she held senior roles including Chief Financial Officer, Customer Service Executive Director, Operations Director and Finance & Strategy Director.

Prior to joining the John Lewis Partnership, Bérangère spent 11 years at the Royal Mail Group in a number of finance, change and strategy roles, including as Finance Director of the property division.

In an expanded role as BBC Group Chief Financial Officer, Bérangère will be responsible for the overall BBC Group financial strategy, with a remit across BBC Public Service, BBC Studios and the BBC’s commercial subsidiaries. She will play a leadership role and will sit on both the Executive Committee and, for the first time, the Board.

This position will strengthen the BBC’s financial leadership, support its transformation, and make the best use of the licence fee and commercial opportunities. Bérangère will report to the Director-General and will take up the role in early January.

Director-General Tim Davie says: “Bérangère brings a wealth of experience from her time at the John Lewis Partnership and will play a critical role in shaping our new financial strategy. I’m pleased to welcome her to the BBC, and to both the Executive Committee and Board.

“Bérangère’s appointment to this expanded role comes at an important time for the BBC, as we look ahead to Charter renewal and continue to accelerate our transformation to deliver outstanding value for our audiences.”

BBC Chair Samir Shah says: “The role of Group Chief Financial Officer will be hugely important as we build a BBC for the future, and I look forward to welcoming Bérangère to the Board.”

Bérangère Michel says: “I am delighted to be joining the BBC, an institution whose purpose and mission I have always admired. It’s a privilege to be part of shaping its exciting future at such a crucial moment and I cannot wait to get started.”

BBC Press Office

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Finance

ATI Promotes Longtime Leader to CFO and SVP of Finance

Published

1 day ago

December 11, 2025

Press Room

ATI Promotes Longtime Leader to CFO and SVP of Finance

Rob Foster, incoming CFO of ATI Inc., effective Jan. 1, 2026 [Photo: ATI}

ATI Inc., a Dallas-based manufacturer of high-performance materials for the aerospace and defense industries, announced that James Robert “Rob” Foster will be promoted to senior vice president of finance and chief financial officer, effective January 1, 2026.

Foster succeeds Don Newman, who will serve as strategic advisor to the CEO beginning January 1. As previously announced, Newman will retire on March 1, 2026, and serve in an advisory capacity in that time to allow for a smooth transition.

“Rob is a proven P&L leader with enterprise-wide experience in the areas that matter most to ATI’s continued growth,” Kim Fields, president and CEO, said in a statement. “He brings deep expertise not only in finance but also as an operational leader. Rob played a pivotal role in the successful Specialty Rolled Products transformation, consistently helping ATI to deliver strong returns and shareholder value. I look forward to partnering with him as we enter our next phase of profitable growth.”

Foster, a longtime ATI leader, brings both operational expertise and financial discipline to the CFO role, the company said. He most recently served as president of ATI’s specialty alloys & components business, where he improved efficiency, grew capacity, and advanced the company’s role as a global leader in exotic alloys. Foster previously served as vice president of Finance, Supply Chain, and Capital Projects, overseeing ATI’s global finance organization, capital deployment processes, and enterprise supply chain performance. Earlier in his career, he led Finance for both ATI operating segments and the Forged Products business.

“I’m honored to become ATI’s next CFO,” said Foster. “ATI is well-positioned with a strong balance sheet, focused strategy, and significant opportunities ahead. I look forward to working with our team to drive disciplined investment, operational excellence, and long-term value creation for our shareholders.”

Newman added, “Rob is an exceptional leader who understands ATI’s strategy, operations, and financial drivers. He has delivered transformative results across the organization. I look forward to supporting a seamless transition as we pursue this next step in our succession planning.”

Before joining ATI in 2012, Foster held senior finance roles at API Technologies Corp. and Spectrum Control Inc., where he led ERP implementations, acquisition integrations, and internal control enhancements. He began his career as an auditor at Ernst & Young (EY).

ATI produces high-performance materials and solutions for the global aerospace and defense markets, and critical applications in electronics, medical, and specialty energy.