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Japan keeps mum on forex intervention as yen jumps

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Japan keeps mum on forex intervention as yen jumps

Japan on Friday left markets guessing on whether it had intervened to shore up the yen against the U.S. dollar, as senior officials neither confirmed nor denied another foray to reduce excessive volatility.

The officials remained silent after the dollar tumbled more than 4 yen from 161 yen over a short span of time in New York overnight, soon after data showed inflation in the United States had continued to slow, strengthening the market view that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September.

Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki, in a similar vein, did not confirm a media report that the Bank of Japan had conducted a “rate check” on the euro-yen pair, a practice seen by markets as a harbinger of actual intervention. In a rate check, the Japanese central bank contacts market participants to inquire about foreign exchange rates.

Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki holds a press conference at the ministry in Tokyo on July 12, 2024. He declined to comment on whether Japan had intervened in the currency market overnight to shore up the yen against the U.S. dollar. (Kyodo) ==Kyodo

“I do not comment on whether we have intervened or not,” Suzuki told a press conference, a remark echoed by Japan’s top currency diplomat Masato Kanda and government spokesman Yoshimasa Hayashi.

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Suzuki said foreign exchange levels should be determined by market forces but rapid fluctuations are undesirable. “In particular, we are concerned about one-sided movements,” he added.

The yen’s precipitous fall has raised concern about the negative impact on the Japanese economy, particularly the inflation of import costs for everything from energy to raw materials at a time when households are struggling with a cost-of-living crisis.

The Japanese currency has fallen to an over 37-year low against the dollar near 162, while also hitting its lowest level against the euro since the 1999 launch of the single European currency.

Market analysts say the yen’s rapid appreciation came as market players flocked to the currency as the interest rate differential narrowed following the release of the U.S. inflation data.

Others say Japanese authorities apparently joined the flow and pushed the yen higher, sparking intense yen-buying in a chain reaction as markets players were caught off guard.

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“The government will closely monitor currency market developments and take all necessary steps,” Chief Cabinet Secretary

Hayashi told a separate press conference.

Japanese authorities had kept markets vigilant with a series of verbal warnings in recent weeks that they could act to rectify volatile currency movements that do not reflect fundamentals. But they largely let the yen weaken slowly toward 162 to the dollar.

The major factor behind the feeble yen is the wide interest rate differential between Japan on one hand and the United States and Europe on the other.

Kanda said only a handful of officials would have direct knowledge of a market intervention if the government stepped in.

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“That being the case, it’s inconceivable that government officials would have commented on it,” Kanda, vice finance minister for international affairs, said about some media reports citing government sources as confirming a foray on Thursday.

The Finance Ministry is scheduled to release market intervention data at the end of July.

When Japan spent 9.79 trillion yen ($61 billion) between April and May to slow the yen’s rapid decline, the foray came after the yen fell to 160.24 on April 29.

At the time, Japanese authorities adopted a strategy known as a “stealth intervention,” meant to amplify market jitters by keeping mum about their action.


Related coverage:

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Dollar firms to near 160 yen on receding U.S. rate cut expectations

Japan warns of appropriate action any time against rapid yen moves

U.S. puts Japan back on currency manipulator watch list after 1 year


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PEIA Finance Board approves increases, sparking financial concerns among public employees

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PEIA Finance Board approves increases, sparking financial concerns among public employees

The PEIA Finance Board approved on Thursday a three percent deductible increase, along with a $200 increase in the spousal surcharge.

Over the last three years public employees have been subject to nearly a 50% increase in PEIA deductibles, something that people like Josh Keck, who is a professor at Mountwest Community and Technical College said has put public employees between a rock and a hard place financially.

“So you add that on top of all the other regular cost of living increases. I mean rent prices are insane. Housing prices are insane, new car prices are insane,” Keck said. “So you add all that on top of it. I mean every year for the last three years has been worse and worse and worse to where my budget doesn’t work anymore.”

The main thing raising concerns from many families on PEIA is the approved $200 increase to the spousal surcharge. For Keck that would make his spousal surcharge per month over $500.

“I took a big pay cut to go from private industry to teaching and that was predominantly because of PEIA ,and the family plan being as cheap as it was,” Keck said. “But with this spousal surcharge, that’s pretty much killed my budget. I have no ability now to save for retirement outside of the minimum that they take out of my check.”

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Education West Virginia Co-President Dale Lee has contended throughout the PEIA public hearings over the last month that if premiums and deductibles are based on a tier system that is based on someone’s ability to pay then it should also be applied to the spousal surcharge.

“That should be based on the ability to pay to,” Lee said. “It just seems right that someone making $200,000 a year shouldn’t pay the same price as somebody making $20,000.”

The approved increases are set to go into effect July 1, 2026, but Lee said if state lawmakers act in the upcoming legislative session the increases can be avoided.

“If the legislature acts on some things like for the spouse surcharge, for example, if they change the statute where that is based on your ability to pay rather than the actual cost of the plan, that can change,” Lee said.

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Is the dominance of the US dollar unravelling under Trump?

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Is the dominance of the US dollar unravelling under Trump?
The dominant global financial position of the US and its currency, the dollar, is wobbling under the second Trump administration. AURA88 / Shutterstock

The US has long sat at the centre of the global financial system, with the US dollar serving as the backbone of the world economy. Private investors rely on the dollar as a store of value in times of uncertainty.

Governments and central banks hold dollars to manage the value of their own currencies and as a form of insurance against economic shocks. Key commodities such as oil are also priced in dollars.

This dominant position, which has given the US enormous privileges including the capacity to borrow money cheaply and the ability to use the global financial system as a tool of statecraft, is often explained through the size and stability of US markets and the strength of its institutions. But beneath these economic fundamentals lies something more intangible: trust.

Countries and private financial institutions hold dollars, trade in dollars and borrow in dollars because they trust the US to maintain an open, rules-based international order. They also trust the US to honour contracts, protect property rights and manage the world’s financial plumbing responsibly by acting as an international lender of last resort during periods of crisis.

The dollar system has long had its critics. In the aftermath of the global financial crisis, which occurred between 2007 and 2009, emerging economies faced severe spillovers from US monetary policy and growing exposure to dollar-denominated debt. They also witnessed the increasing use of financial sanctions as a tool of US foreign policy.

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China, Russia, India and other countries outside the west began constructing alternative financial infrastructures – new payment systems, currency swap lines and efforts to internationalise their own currencies. What began as a gradual search for some form of protection from US financial power quietly created cracks at the margins of the dollar-based system.

However, nothing has been as disorienting to the global role of the dollar as the second Trump administration’s overt attacks on the liberal international economic order. The imposition of sweeping trade tariffs, as well as efforts to undermine international and domestic institutions, represent a fundamental break with the promise of responsible American financial leadership.

Previous predictions of the dollar’s decline have proved premature. But as we argue in a recently published paper, the erosion of trust in the US as the steward of the liberal international order should be taken seriously. What we are seeing is not the immediate collapse of US financial power, but the beginning of a slow transition towards a fragmented, multipolar – and less predictable – global monetary system.

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No budget deal in sight as Johnson’s finance team pokes holes in alders’ plan

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No budget deal in sight as Johnson’s finance team pokes holes in alders’ plan

It’s clear Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson and the Chicago City Council are no closer to reaching a budget deal, as top financial officials in the mayor’s administration have largely rejected the alternative budget plan presented by council members.

The 2026 budget plan needs to be approved by the mayor and at least 26 of the 50 alders by the end of the year. In October, Johnson presented his plan, which included a $21 per employee corporate head tax on the city’s largest companies each month, plus a host of other taxes. A month later, the mayor’s revenue ideas were soundly rejected by the council’s Finance Committee.

Alders began crafting their own plan, and 26 of them signed a letter Tuesday presenting an alternative proposal. The alternate plan took out the corporate head tax, replacing it instead with items like an increased garbage fee, with an exemption for seniors, and an increased liquor tax at liquor stores.

The mayor’s financial team — Chief Financial Officer Jill Jaworski, Budget Director Annette Guzman and City Comptroller Michael Belsky — responded to the alders Thursday, thanking them for their plan but rebuking several of their proposals, saying, for example, that an improved debt collection plan, is “not supported by legal, financial, or operational realities.” The mayor’s administration said increasing the garbage collection fee from $9.50 to $18 per month would represent a 90 percent increase in a year, which would be a financial hardship for families.

“At a time when many communities are already experiencing substantial property tax increases through the recent property assessments conducted by the Cook County Assessor and the appeals approved by the Board of Review, imposing another major cost escalation would create an immediate and disproportionate burden on households least able to absorb it,” Jaworski, Guzman and Belsky wrote in a joint statement to the 26 alders.

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The mayor’s team also made it clear the corporate head tax — which it calls a “Community Safety Surcharge” — will stay in the budget proposal, despite objections from more than half the council. Opponents of the head tax call it a “job killer.” The mayor’s team challenged that notion, saying the assertion that it would “disincentivize economic growth is not substantiated by data.”

“The assumption that corporate taxation directly affects employment growth lacks empirical support. By investing in proven community safety interventions, we are making Chicago better for businesses. A progressive revenue like the Community Safety Surcharge, one that asks those who have benefited the most from the city’s growth and prosperity to contribute their fair share, is not a threat to prosperity, but a prerequisite,” Jaworski, Guzman and Belsky wrote in a joint statement to the 26 alders.

Ald. Nicole Lee and Ald. Scott Waguespack responded to the mayor’s administration’s rebuke of their alternate proposal, disagreeing with their assessment.

“The mayor’s office has offered no new ideas – only criticisms of our work. This is not anyone’s idea of actual collaboration,” Lee said.

“It is time for Mayor Johnson to accept the reality that his budget is not going to pass as is,” Waguespack said. “We will take the necessary steps required to move this process forward on our own.”

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The city paid the accounting firm Ernst and Young $3 million to outline efficiencies that could help Chicago close its billion-dollar gap in its $16 billion 2026 budget. Among the options in the report: consolidating city purchasing and fleet management, streamlining city departments and better managing health care costs.

Alders have urged Johnson to adopt more recommendations from the report, but his finance team responded in their memo Thursday, saying, “It is important to note that the City’s Financial and Strategic Reform Options report presents a set of options for consideration—not mandates.”

The mayor’s administration noted that it has made changes to its own initial proposal, including the full restoration of the Chicago Public Library’s circulation budget, additional money for the advanced pension payment, more funding for community programs and upping a program that helps low-income people with disabilities make their homes more accessible.

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